Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

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areyouinsane
Posts: 208
Joined: Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:22 pm

Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:37 pm

For you Peter Schiff haters, I suggest this YouTube CNBC clip from summer of 2006, where he totally pwns the right-wing lackey Art Laffer on the housing bubble. Schiff just utterly pwned him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

Even if you hate his guts or my guts, the dood was 100% correct, and quite a gentlemen to endure the shit he had to take from the CNBC bozos. And to his credit he has never gloated about it since.

I also recommend "The Daily Reckoning" esp Bill Bonners posts (he is the owner of the site and BTW a Georgetown Law grad)

dailyreckoning.com

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AreJay711
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby AreJay711 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:47 pm

rayiner wrote:
AreJay711 wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:
but there is the thing that houses have some intrinsic value


Houses backed by sub-prime mortgages had about as much intrinsic value as crappy law degrees.

I mean the physical house. Not the mortgage.


But that intrinsic value was a lot lower than the value of the mortgages. That's the fundamental issue with the real estate bubble, right? That $14 trillion in mortgages is backed by houses that are worth a lot less than that. If a bank forecloses on a house with a $500k mortgage and gets $250k in the foreclosure sale, that's just as much of a loss as if a student with $250k in debt just completely defaults on his loans. With housing prices getting adjusted downward by 30-50% in many places, that's trillions in potential losses for the banks. Meanwhile, even if 20% of students completely default on their loans (we're nowhere near there yet), that's about $170 billion. A big number, but dwarfed by the housing market.


Yeah, I agree with you provided that they banks didn't leverage student loans to a redic level (and right now banks have enough cash to probably not worry about it). I was looking at the issue from the consumer side where if shit hits the fan at least your house might have positive equity.

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Borhas
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Borhas » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:01 pm

seriouslyinformative wrote:
Borhas wrote:Europe can afford to bail out Greece (probably won't do much good)... what people should be worried about are Spain and Italy... hopefully EU will kick out Greece, and try to minimize as much of a shock to the rest of the system. F'n Greeks...


http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-re ... eek-debt-1


It's good to see that the Spanish and Italians won't immediately collapse once the Greeks default (which seems certain at this point)... but Spain and Italy are almost as badly fucked for independent reasons (Spain's unemployment is what... 20% now? Italians are old, lazy, and corrupt, they are fucked too).

All in all, I don't think we're going to "recover" from this mess

I'm starting to think global economic and environmental concerns are tied... developed nations are CONSTANTLY choosing to use promises of future wealth to squander in the present: SS, Medicare leading to gigantic deficits? Fuck it, we'll deal with it later. Global warming, dead zones in the ocean? Fuck it we'll deal with it later. Can't afford a fresh summer wardrobe? Fuck it, put it on the credit card. The Greeks lied to join the EU and now they owe you billions they can't pay? Fuck it, bail them out, deal with it later....

we've basically sold our futures, and it's getting about time to hand it over

I'd say we're fucked, but really, this is for the best. We need to stop acting like pigs (pun not intended).


Here's some info on the Spanish debt crisis:
http://www.businessinsider.com/spain-de ... s-and-uk-1

seriouslyinformative
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby seriouslyinformative » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:07 pm

I bet you some solid benjamins our Banks are adequately hedged against any risk with respect to the exposure to EU country defaults. Question is who are those insurers and how were the deals collateralized? Also, there's the problem of speculation. No way to tell the actual Dollar amount of derivatives resting on a Greek default.

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AreJay711
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby AreJay711 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:07 pm

Borhas wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:
Borhas wrote:Europe can afford to bail out Greece (probably won't do much good)... what people should be worried about are Spain and Italy... hopefully EU will kick out Greece, and try to minimize as much of a shock to the rest of the system. F'n Greeks...


http://www.businessinsider.com/greek-re ... eek-debt-1


It's good to see that the Spanish and Italians won't immediately collapse once the Greeks default (which seems certain at this point)... but Spain and Italy are almost as badly fucked for independent reasons (Spain's unemployment is what... 20% now? Italians are old, lazy, and corrupt, they are fucked too).

All in all, I don't think we're going to "recover" from this mess

I'm starting to think global economic and environmental concerns are tied... developed nations are CONSTANTLY choosing to use promises of future wealth to squander in the present: SS, Medicare leading to gigantic deficits? Fuck it, we'll deal with it later. Global warming, dead zones in the ocean? Fuck it we'll deal with it later. Can't afford a fresh summer wardrobe? Fuck it, put it on the credit card. The Greeks lied to join the EU and now they owe you billions they can't pay? Fuck it, bail them out, deal with it later....

we've basically sold our futures, and it's getting about time to hand it over

I'd say we're fucked, but really, this is for the best. We need to stop acting like pigs (pun not intended).


If a shitstorm ensues, the question will be whether Europe further integrates or dissolves the monetary union. Either way, would this hurt the U.S. terribly with all the cash we are sitting on?

seriouslyinformative
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby seriouslyinformative » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:14 pm

Greece ain't gonna default.

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Borhas
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Borhas » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:16 pm

seriouslyinformative wrote:Greece ain't gonna default.


are you sure? and why?

shoeshine
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby shoeshine » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:20 pm

Borhas wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:Greece ain't gonna default.

are you sure? and why?

No one can be sure. The EU (particularly France and Germany) has a vested interest in making sure Greece doesn't default and I am pretty sure they will prop them up at almost any cost when push comes to shove. If this new austerity package passes their legislature I think the likely hood of them defaulting is <10%.

areyouinsane
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:32 pm

Sometimes older lawyers can really hook you up bigtime. This dude who's like 75 years old and lived down the block from me when I was a little kid just sent me over like 10 templates for answers & aff. defenses to a new case of ours in NJ Special Civil Part (which is one step above small claims in NJ- there's a 15 K limit on claims in that part FYI).

Not only that, he gave me some invaluable advice about how to win this turd case hands down. Facts are as follows:

We represent D who owns a crappy dive bar in Garfield, NJ. D had a contract with Direct TV to provide TV service to the bar.This was in summer 2010.

So one night a bunch of the "regulars" are sitting around and ask D 'hey man, you gonna get the UFC fight on the f'ing TV in this piece?" So D says "let me call Direct TV and see what they charge for it.'

So D calls Direct TV and they tell him the UFC fight is $80 bucks. So he says "sure, hook dat up boss."

The fight is broadcast into D's bar thru the Direct TV satelillite box. He doesn't charge admission to see it or promote it in any way, it was kinda one of those "spur of the moment things."

So about 5 months ago he gets a demand letter from the fight promoter saying he owes them $800 for "showing the event in a commercial establishment for profit." So D calls Direct TV and they say "no biggie, our bad. We'll take care of it, etc."

D thinks no more of it until two weeks ago when he gets served with a summons and complaint alleging theft of the event under Federal statutes, common law fraud, conversion, etc. The complaint is filed by a collections law mill and looks like Corky the Retard wrote it with his magic markers. They demand 15 K for this beef.

So my old buddy the geezer lawyer who was admitted in like 1957 gets all excited and sends me over tons of roggs, sample answers, and advice about how to put this puppy to bed quick. Just got done cutting/pasting his juice into the answer, which will be served alongside some tough-to-answer roggs. I spent a lot of time making sure all the margins and shit were tight, etc. She looks really nice now, like your brother's Camaro when he got done waxing it.

Once in a while you can have a decent day in Shitlaw. Don't hesitate to call on the geezers, they revel in this crap and have saved every document their office has churned since 1960. Also their war stories are kinda funny if you're in the mood for them.

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Borhas
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Borhas » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:44 pm

shoeshine wrote:
Borhas wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:Greece ain't gonna default.

are you sure? and why?

No one can be sure. The EU (particularly France and Germany) has a vested interest in making sure Greece doesn't default and I am pretty sure they will prop them up at almost any cost when push comes to shove. If this new austerity package passes their legislature I think the likely hood of them defaulting is <10%.


you mean defaulting now... how soon before they need another bailout?

Besides, I don't trust the Greeks or any austerity package, they are a lawless people at this point. It's unrealistic to expect them to be able to get back on their feet and start paying off their debt, even with their Austere laws it's only a matter of time before they can't make their payments anymore.

On the plus side... maybe delaying the inevitable will stagger the financial collapses into a smooth 20 year long depression instead of something akin to the zombie apocalypse

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fatduck
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:49 pm

thesealocust wrote:You're freaking hilarious dude. I don't agree at all with what that guy wrote. More importantly, I've caused enough trouble in my day that the mods watch me like a hawk. I doubt I could successfully create an alt for trolling like this even if I did it from an IP in Antarctica.

you don't believe in peak oil? foe'd.

Anonymous User
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Anonymous User » Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:12 pm

seriouslyinformative wrote:
Anonymous User wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:Things that should precipitate bad tides at law firms: a tightening of the credit/capital markets. Anyone working at firms that specialize in work in these fields should see the storm on the horizon. Thus, if any of you work at these firms, your best bet in contributing to this thread is to press the "anonymous post" button and say whether there's been a slowdown in work in those departments in your firm.


I summer at one of the handful of firms that are synonymous with the credit/capital markets practice. Attorneys on those deals are busy like you wouldn't believe and have been for a long time. Excessively swamped, crazy hot market. It comes up constantly too.

If they see storm clouds, they're neither telling the summers nor unconsciously betraying their fear (well, possibly hope, they're pretty fucking tired).


You are a god among men. Thank you, sir.


Same anon reporting back. Things changed pretty quickly this week: Transactions that were gearing up over the past few weeks have failed to price, fallen through, etc. Deal flow is drying up sort of as we speak. On Monday everyone was still running around like a crazy person, and it's like the gas has been slowly let off as the week progresses. There's still work, but a couple of people in the later days of the week mentioned that things started to slow down - particularly over worries about Greece.

I'm just a summer, so I could have read early week signals wrong or today's signals wrong - they're certainly not telling us. But by the end of the today I felt like I had to backtrack on my previous statement. Basically the transactional attorneys went from "we never sleep and never will" to "oh thank god, work isn't as crazy all of the sudden."

imchuckbass58
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby imchuckbass58 » Fri Jun 24, 2011 7:27 pm

I have not read this entire thread, but I hope someone mentioned that the cuts are almost entirely in sales & trading and wealth management, which generate little or no collateral demand for legal services. When someone trades a bond or a commodity, you don't need a lawyer.

Actual investment banking (i.e., corporate finance - M&A, issuing debt/equity) is what actually drives most of the demand for legal services that come from the financial sector, and it is doing fine. In fact, at lots of banks the uptick in investment banking work is partially offsetting decreased trading revenues.




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