Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

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fatduck
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby fatduck » Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:34 am

i died at "peak oil." nicely done.

shoeshine
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby shoeshine » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:19 pm

areyouinsane wrote:Bottom line is that there is/was no US "recovery." Unemployment if measured by honest, Great Depression era metrics would be north of 20%. Housing prices are still in freefall, state governments are broke and fiscal train wrecks, and Bernake yesterday said he is "clueless" why we've not come out of this yet. The few new jobs being created are mostly at freakin' Mickey D's.

Rather than allow the big banks and such to simply crash and burn in 2008 (as they deserved to), Bernake keeps pumping Fed $$$ into these "zombies." It's like giving a guy with stomach cancer a pack of Rolaids. QE made everyone feel better for a bit, but now it's worn off/over and things are right back in the crapper.

There will never be a housing recovery in our lifetimes because most people coming out of undergrad (much less law school) already owe a mortgage-sized debt in student loans. Debt that is never dischargable in bankruptcy, mind you. With no jobs (or crap jobs in retail/fast food) this toxic debt will essentially wipe out an entire generation of prospective homeowners. Our manufacturing base is utterly decimated thanks to NAFTA and outsourcing, construction is in the toilet b/c we overbuilt too many condos/strip malls/McMansion the past decade, and gas prices will likely soar into the stratosphere over the next 5 years as we've passed Peak Oil. Greece is simply the opening act in a great global finance meltdown that will drive living standards down to levels few expect or are even remotely prepared for.

This is a country who's best days are behind it.

You are thesealocusts alt. I can't prove it but I know you are. You are how he expresses his fears about law school and the economy.

areyouinsane
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:39 pm

Student loan debt is irreverent as well. Just because it pwns law grads lives, doesn't mean it's a big deal.


Irrelevant? Student loan debt in the US now exceeds credit card debt:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/col ... debt_N.htm

Recent college grads from "average" schools face the worst job market since the mid-1930s. For most law grads, the situation is arguably far worse. And the US economy is driven almost exclusively by the "little guy" buying plastic crap from Wal-Mart, crap from Home Depot to fix/furnish/improve his suburban tract home, etc. Where will someone with hundreds of dollars of loan payments a month and a job at Starbucks (if they're lucky) get the extra $$$ to buy a home and all the other crap that drives our consumer society?

Student loan debt is literally a crippling disease. Sallie Mae, Access Group et al have collection powers a Mafia don could only dream of. When they're calling your phone/jamming your email inbox 500 X a day, let's see how "irrelevant" they are. Remember, these loans are non-dischargable in bankruptcy. They can & will haunt you for the rest of your life.

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Vronsky
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Vronsky » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:42 pm

areyouinsane wrote: Remember, these loans are non-dischargable in bankruptcy. They can & will haunt you for the rest of your life.

What if you just up and leave the country? Go to say Thailand/Korea/Colombia and teach english or do other odd jobs for English speakers? Can student loan debt follow you to foreign countries?

areyouinsane
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:48 pm

What if you just up and leave the country? Go to say Thailand/Korea/Colombia and teach english or do other odd jobs for English speakers? Can student loan debt follow you to foreign countries?


In just a few short months, I'll let you know.

seriouslyinformative
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby seriouslyinformative » Thu Jun 23, 2011 3:51 pm

Student loan debt is literally a crippling disease.


Literally, eh?

keg411
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby keg411 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:00 pm

I agree that student loan debt is crappy and a major problem, but that's for other reasons. I think it's silly to BLAME student loan debt for the bad economy. I would be a very very small fraction of the population even has student loan debt. I also agree with DF and think there are a lot more severe and far reaching issues than something like student loan debt. I'm sure if the government knew that the economy would be fixed by allowing student loan debt to be discharged in bankruptcy, they would do it in a heartbeat. Law grads taking on $200k of debt, while stupid and has far-reaching consequences to the individual who does so, likely has ZERO impact on the US economy as a whole (which is what this thread is about -- the possibility of a double-dip recession and the bank layoffs are not the result of stupid law students paying sticker for bad job prospects; it may HURT people who are doing it, but it's not the CAUSE).

mebeSajid
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby mebeSajid » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:04 pm

keg411 wrote:I agree that student loan debt is crappy and a major problem, but that's for other reasons. I think it's silly to BLAME student loan debt for the bad economy. I would be a very very small fraction of the population even has student loan debt. I also agree with DF and think there are a lot more severe and far reaching issues than something like student loan debt. I'm sure if the government knew that the economy would be fixed by allowing student loan debt to be discharged in bankruptcy, they would do it in a heartbeat. Law grads taking on $200k of debt, while stupid and has far-reaching consequences to the individual who does so, likely has ZERO impact on the US economy as a whole (which is what this thread is about -- the possibility of a double-dip recession and the bank layoffs are not the result of stupid law students paying sticker for bad job prospects; it may HURT people who are doing it, but it's not the CAUSE).


Image

keg411
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby keg411 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:07 pm

^^
Was a reply to the previous poster's assertion that the economy was caused by student loan debt and student loan debt not being dischargable was part of what was "ruining" the economy. Hence the statement, even if it's totally ridiculous. So obviously not really serious :lol:.

areyouinsane
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby areyouinsane » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:19 pm

Just google "Peter Schiff" if you want the real dope on where we're headed. Dood is one smart cookie. Also check out Gerald Celente.

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bjsesq
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby bjsesq » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:20 pm

areyouinsane wrote:Just google "Peter Schiff" if you want the real dope on where we're headed. Dood is one smart cookie. Also check out Gerald Celente.


As long as you promise to google "disease" first.

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rayiner
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby rayiner » Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:48 pm

areyouinsane wrote:Just google "Peter Schiff" if you want the real dope on where we're headed. Dood is one smart cookie. Also check out Gerald Celente.


"Schiff is CEO and chief global strategist[1] of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut[13] and CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City."

Gee, why am I not surprised.

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glitched
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby glitched » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:06 pm

Oh hell. Fuck it. I'm not going to law school anymore.

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rayiner
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby rayiner » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:29 pm

areyouinsane wrote:
Student loan debt is irreverent as well. Just because it pwns law grads lives, doesn't mean it's a big deal.


Irrelevant? Student loan debt in the US now exceeds credit card debt:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/col ... debt_N.htm

Recent college grads from "average" schools face the worst job market since the mid-1930s. For most law grads, the situation is arguably far worse. And the US economy is driven almost exclusively by the "little guy" buying plastic crap from Wal-Mart, crap from Home Depot to fix/furnish/improve his suburban tract home, etc. Where will someone with hundreds of dollars of loan payments a month and a job at Starbucks (if they're lucky) get the extra $$$ to buy a home and all the other crap that drives our consumer society?

Student loan debt is literally a crippling disease. Sallie Mae, Access Group et al have collection powers a Mafia don could only dream of. When they're calling your phone/jamming your email inbox 500 X a day, let's see how "irrelevant" they are. Remember, these loans are non-dischargable in bankruptcy. They can & will haunt you for the rest of your life.


In the grand scheme of things, the housing bubble was a way bigger concern than the educational loan bubble.

Outstanding education debt: $850 billion.
Outstanding mortgage debt: $14,500 billion.

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Borhas
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Borhas » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:31 pm

keg411 wrote:^^
Was a reply to the previous poster's assertion that the economy was caused by student loan debt and student loan debt not being dischargable was part of what was "ruining" the economy. Hence the statement, even if it's totally ridiculous. So obviously not really serious :lol:.


student loan debt literally kills millions of Americans every year

seriouslyinformative
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby seriouslyinformative » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:32 pm

It's not just the size of the debt that's an issue. The amount of hedging and speculating that's based on it was also huge. The financial crisis occurred not just because of declining real estate values, but also because of the derivatives based on subprime mortgages and the shady collateral policies of certain insurers.

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AreJay711
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby AreJay711 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:33 pm

rayiner wrote:
areyouinsane wrote:
Student loan debt is irreverent as well. Just because it pwns law grads lives, doesn't mean it's a big deal.


Irrelevant? Student loan debt in the US now exceeds credit card debt:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/col ... debt_N.htm

Recent college grads from "average" schools face the worst job market since the mid-1930s. For most law grads, the situation is arguably far worse. And the US economy is driven almost exclusively by the "little guy" buying plastic crap from Wal-Mart, crap from Home Depot to fix/furnish/improve his suburban tract home, etc. Where will someone with hundreds of dollars of loan payments a month and a job at Starbucks (if they're lucky) get the extra $$$ to buy a home and all the other crap that drives our consumer society?

Student loan debt is literally a crippling disease. Sallie Mae, Access Group et al have collection powers a Mafia don could only dream of. When they're calling your phone/jamming your email inbox 500 X a day, let's see how "irrelevant" they are. Remember, these loans are non-dischargable in bankruptcy. They can & will haunt you for the rest of your life.


In the grand scheme of things, the housing bubble was a way bigger concern than the educational loan bubble.

Outstanding education debt: $850 billion.
Outstanding mortgage debt: $14,500 billion.


Yeah, but there is the thing that houses have some intrinsic value while the value of the education some people dropped big money for is dubious. I know a chick that borrowed 120K for my shitty state school as an out of state school and got all C's and B's because she didn't give a fuck about classes. How much value was really created there?

seriouslyinformative
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby seriouslyinformative » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:52 pm

but there is the thing that houses have some intrinsic value


Houses backed by sub-prime mortgages had about as much intrinsic value as crappy law degrees.

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AreJay711
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby AreJay711 » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:53 pm

seriouslyinformative wrote:
but there is the thing that houses have some intrinsic value


Houses backed by sub-prime mortgages had about as much intrinsic value as crappy law degrees.

I mean the physical house. Not the mortgage.

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Grizz
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Grizz » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:54 pm

I'm just gonna put a bullet through my skull. Life is one long march toward death however you cut it.

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Jack Smirks
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Jack Smirks » Thu Jun 23, 2011 6:55 pm

rad law wrote:I'm just gonna put a bullet through my skull. Life is one long march toward death however you cut it.

Truth brother.

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Hippononymous
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby Hippononymous » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:01 pm

areyouinsane wrote:A chick I dated for a while 2 years ago was dinged from Legal Aid in the bloodbath- she called me the other day to ask about doc review temp. jobs and how to apply, etc. Sadly, most of the temp jobs have been outsourced to India:

http://www.globallpoconference.com/usa/ ... cade-.html

Um... That's a blog post for someone selling outsourcing services...

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robotclubmember
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby robotclubmember » Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:12 pm

rad law wrote:I'm just gonna put a bullet through my skull. Life is one long march toward death however you cut it.


the truth emerges: life is a series of disappointments, followed by death

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thesealocust
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby thesealocust » Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:28 pm

shoeshine wrote:
areyouinsane wrote:Bottom line is that there is/was no US "recovery." Unemployment if measured by honest, Great Depression era metrics would be north of 20%. Housing prices are still in freefall, state governments are broke and fiscal train wrecks, and Bernake yesterday said he is "clueless" why we've not come out of this yet. The few new jobs being created are mostly at freakin' Mickey D's.

Rather than allow the big banks and such to simply crash and burn in 2008 (as they deserved to), Bernake keeps pumping Fed $$$ into these "zombies." It's like giving a guy with stomach cancer a pack of Rolaids. QE made everyone feel better for a bit, but now it's worn off/over and things are right back in the crapper.

There will never be a housing recovery in our lifetimes because most people coming out of undergrad (much less law school) already owe a mortgage-sized debt in student loans. Debt that is never dischargable in bankruptcy, mind you. With no jobs (or crap jobs in retail/fast food) this toxic debt will essentially wipe out an entire generation of prospective homeowners. Our manufacturing base is utterly decimated thanks to NAFTA and outsourcing, construction is in the toilet b/c we overbuilt too many condos/strip malls/McMansion the past decade, and gas prices will likely soar into the stratosphere over the next 5 years as we've passed Peak Oil. Greece is simply the opening act in a great global finance meltdown that will drive living standards down to levels few expect or are even remotely prepared for.

This is a country who's best days are behind it.

You are thesealocusts alt. I can't prove it but I know you are. You are how he expresses his fears about law school and the economy.


You're freaking hilarious dude. I don't agree at all with what that guy wrote. More importantly, I've caused enough trouble in my day that the mods watch me like a hawk. I doubt I could successfully create an alt for trolling like this even if I did it from an IP in Antarctica.

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rayiner
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Re: Uh oh... they're gassing the canaries (Wall Street layoffs)

Postby rayiner » Thu Jun 23, 2011 9:35 pm

AreJay711 wrote:
seriouslyinformative wrote:
but there is the thing that houses have some intrinsic value


Houses backed by sub-prime mortgages had about as much intrinsic value as crappy law degrees.

I mean the physical house. Not the mortgage.


But that intrinsic value was a lot lower than the value of the mortgages. That's the fundamental issue with the real estate bubble, right? That $14 trillion in mortgages is backed by houses that are worth a lot less than that. If a bank forecloses on a house with a $500k mortgage and gets $250k in the foreclosure sale, that's just as much of a loss as if a student with $250k in debt just completely defaults on his loans. With housing prices getting adjusted downward by 30-50% in many places, that's trillions in potential losses for the banks. Meanwhile, even if 20% of students completely default on their loans (we're nowhere near there yet), that's about $170 billion. A big number, but dwarfed by the housing market.




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