UVa OGI 2011 thread

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thesealocust
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby thesealocust » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:58 am

joeshmo39 wrote:I has confusion.

So July 28th they get back to use with our pre-selects, totally separate from the lottery. At that point, we have to pick which firms we want to interview at. The thing is, the lottery hasn't run yet so we don't know if we may pick up bids later. Right? Do people intentionally take fewer pre-selects to give themselves a better shot in the lottery? How do we know what firms we want if we don't know our lottery pickups yet?


Nobody would ever take fewer pre-selects for a hope at a lottery interview. Pre-select conversion rates from interview -> callback are astronomically higher than lottery conversion from interview -> callback.

You'll find out that X firms have pre-selected you (unless you're packing grades that comfortably put you on law review, you likely will get many fewer than 20 pre-selects). Those interviews will be your absolute best shots. The ONLY people I knew who declined ANY pre-select interviews were those who had over 25 pre-selects and didn't want to take them all. For the overwhelming majority of the class, the ability to decline interviews before the lottery is run is irrelevant, it's really just an opportunity for the few people pre-selected everywhere they applied to narrow the list and kick some interviews back into the system.

desertlaw
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby desertlaw » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:15 am

Right, but when does the 20 limit come into play? You can select up to 20 during pre-select, then get possible lottery picks, then you have to go back down to 20? Or will the lottery even run if you have 20 pre-selects accepted?

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joeshmo39
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby joeshmo39 » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:16 am

desertlaw wrote:Right, but when does the 20 limit come into play? You can select up to 20 during pre-select, then get possible lottery picks, then you have to go back down to 20? Or will the lottery even run if you have 20 pre-selects accepted?


If we get like 8 pre-selects (is that average?) then is it possible the lottery kicks you up above 20 and you have to decide then? It seems like it runs the lottery and schedules you at the same time so I guess we get whatever we get.

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:39 am

joeshmo39 wrote:
desertlaw wrote:Right, but when does the 20 limit come into play? You can select up to 20 during pre-select, then get possible lottery picks, then you have to go back down to 20? Or will the lottery even run if you have 20 pre-selects accepted?


If we get like 8 pre-selects (is that average?) then is it possible the lottery kicks you up above 20 and you have to decide then? It seems like it runs the lottery and schedules you at the same time so I guess we get whatever we get.


I think you might be overestimating just how many interviews you can pull out of the lottery. With only 30% of seats getting pulled from the lottery, and last year's thread talking about averages of 1-5 interviews via lottery (with a 60/40 split, I believe), I can't believe this will be much of an issue.

Morgan12Oak
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Morgan12Oak » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:48 am

Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 9:36 am

Morgan12Oak wrote:Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9


Yeah, so last year = median of 9 with 40% of lottery, then I'd expect similar numbers this year, making # of lottery interviews pretty low.

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RVP11
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby RVP11 » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:25 am

Morgan12Oak wrote:Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9


Nine was the average number of preselects.

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:27 am

RVP11 wrote:
Morgan12Oak wrote:Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9


Nine was the average number of preselects.


Do you recall the average number of lottery interviews?

showNprove
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby showNprove » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:33 am

5ky wrote:
RVP11 wrote:
Morgan12Oak wrote:Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9


Nine was the average number of preselects.


Do you recall the average number of lottery interviews?

15 - 9 = 6

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bgdddymtty
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby bgdddymtty » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:42 am

showNprove wrote:
5ky wrote:
RVP11 wrote:
Morgan12Oak wrote:Last year the average amount of interviews per person (after lottery and before special request) was over 15, median I believe was 9


Nine was the average number of preselects.


Do you recall the average number of lottery interviews?

15 - 9 = 6
This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

showNprove
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby showNprove » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:50 am

bgdddymtty wrote:This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

To my knowledge, the median was never released. the statement that 9 was the median number of interviews was incorrect. Nine was the average number of preselects. (Average number of total interviews) - (average number of pre-select interviews) = (average number of lottery interviews). There may be slight discrepancies in the numbers, but this will be true to any degree of certainty that matters to people on this forum.

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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby bgdddymtty » Mon Jul 18, 2011 10:54 am

showNprove wrote:
bgdddymtty wrote:This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

To my knowledge, the median was never released. the statement that 9 was the median number of interviews was incorrect. Nine was the average number of preselects. (Average number of total interviews) - (average number of pre-select interviews) = (average number of lottery interviews). There may be slight discrepancies in the numbers, but this will be true to any degree of certainty that matters to people on this forum.
Gotcha. Thanks for the info.

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:04 am

showNprove wrote:
bgdddymtty wrote:This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

To my knowledge, the median was never released. the statement that 9 was the median number of interviews was incorrect. Nine was the average number of preselects. (Average number of total interviews) - (average number of pre-select interviews) = (average number of lottery interviews). There may be slight discrepancies in the numbers, but this will be true to any degree of certainty that matters to people on this forum.


That's pretty rough, then. I assume that LR grade-ons skewed the mean pretty well at the tail, so the median would probably be at least a few below 9. Just seems like a pretty small number considering how many bids we get.

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dgouzoul
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby dgouzoul » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:24 am

BLOODBATH

showNprove
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby showNprove » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:26 am

5ky wrote:
showNprove wrote:
bgdddymtty wrote:This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

To my knowledge, the median was never released. the statement that 9 was the median number of interviews was incorrect. Nine was the average number of preselects. (Average number of total interviews) - (average number of pre-select interviews) = (average number of lottery interviews). There may be slight discrepancies in the numbers, but this will be true to any degree of certainty that matters to people on this forum.


That's pretty rough, then. I assume that LR grade-ons skewed the mean pretty well at the tail, so the median would probably be at least a few below 9. Just seems like a pretty small number considering how many bids we get.

please explain what bearing the median has on the average.

uvahooo
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby uvahooo » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:29 am

Your also missing the fact that the way people bid. If you bid heavily on DC/NY (the most popular places) where it is less likely to get interviews, then that could skew the curve by LR grade ons.

Morgan12Oak
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Morgan12Oak » Mon Jul 18, 2011 11:54 am

the OGI handbook says that the average amount of interviews per student was around 15 before special requests. so something has to give.

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:05 pm

showNprove wrote:
5ky wrote:
showNprove wrote:
bgdddymtty wrote:This seems wrong based on the original statement. The two sentences appear to draw a distinction between average (i.e., arithmetic average, or mean) and median, rather than between preselects and lottery interviews.

To my knowledge, the median was never released. the statement that 9 was the median number of interviews was incorrect. Nine was the average number of preselects. (Average number of total interviews) - (average number of pre-select interviews) = (average number of lottery interviews). There may be slight discrepancies in the numbers, but this will be true to any degree of certainty that matters to people on this forum.


That's pretty rough, then. I assume that LR grade-ons skewed the mean pretty well at the tail, so the median would probably be at least a few below 9. Just seems like a pretty small number considering how many bids we get.

please explain what bearing the median has on the average.


? In a situation where the mean is distorted, the median is a better indicator of how many pre-selects students are actually getting. My only point was to remark that a median of 7ish pre-selects, out of 50 bids, is kind of depressing.

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5ky
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby 5ky » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:12 pm

uvahooo wrote:Your also missing the fact that the way people bid. If you bid heavily on DC/NY (the most popular places) where it is less likely to get interviews, then that could skew the curve by LR grade ons.


DC, sure. But I have to think that the expected value of a bid in NY is equal to or greater than the expected value of a bid from a different market. Last year, roughly speaking, the average bid:interview ratio for NY firms was about 3:1. Eyeballing the data from the California/Chicago firms, the yield seems to be worse than that. Fewer people bid, no doubt, but the firms are interviewing and hiring many fewer people as well.

showNprove
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby showNprove » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:22 pm

5ky wrote:? In a situation where the mean is distorted, the median is a better indicator of how many pre-selects students are actually getting. My only point was to remark that a median of 7ish pre-selects, out of 50 bids, is kind of depressing.

I thought you were implying that the median number of pre-selects would affect the average number of lottery interviews.

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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:26 pm

Top 1/4 all NYC. How many preselects guise?

Morgan12Oak
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Morgan12Oak » Mon Jul 18, 2011 12:32 pm

Not sure, but just based off some rough math guesstimations

If the average is 15 post-lottery, pre-special request , top 1/4 NYC => >=20 preselects

If the average 9 preselects and pre-lottery, top 1/4 NYC => 15ish preselects

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dailygrind
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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby dailygrind » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:23 pm

If last year it was preselect:lottery 60:40 out of 15 that went 9:6, this year 70:30 would go to ~10.5:4.5. Hopefully there are a few more interview slots total because the economy's heating up, but who knows.

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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:29 pm

Anyone who applied to Nixon Peabody get that email to send more stuff in through their website? Or was it just me?

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Re: UVa OGI 2011 thread

Postby Anonymous User » Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:31 pm

Anonymous User wrote:Anyone who applied to Nixon Peabody get that email to send more stuff in through their website? Or was it just me?


I got it too - I assume they sent it to everyone who bid them.




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