Market on the upswing? Forum

[AreJay711]

Actually, let's go through this.

According to a new report from Goldman Sachs, China might surpass the US in equity market capitalization terms by 2030 and become the single largest equity market in the world. By 2020, US GDP might be only slightly larger than China's GDP. Together, the four BRICs may account for 41% of the world's market capitalization by 2030, the report said.

Just FYI: At least start 1L before posting in this forum. Over and out.

Well first of all, see the source. Second, I only kept one quote but they all say the same thing, being equal or slightly bigger with 3 times the population doesn't make it a superpower. The BRICs are important because they are growing so fast and will cause a re-weighting of the world's economic activity but the term "super power" is not implied in that and something you incorrectly attributed to the report.

[cornellbeez]

Most firms have slightly increased their class sizes from last summer, but they aren't nearly as big as they were a few years ago. I personally think the legal market will never improve in our lifetime to "pre-ITE" levels.

Someone mentioned how firms said they were increasing class sizes - I know of a few firms that advertised they were increasing class sizes by X amount last year, but only increased them slightly this year.

[Stanislaw Carter]

Well first of all, see the source.

Really? Thats the best you can do? I'll just assume you didn't say this.

Second, I only kept one quote but they all say the same thing, being equal or slightly bigger with 3 times the population doesn't make it a superpower. The BRICs are important because they are growing so fast and will cause a re-weighting of the world's economic activity but the term "super power" is not implied in that and something you incorrectly attributed to the report.

Just depends on how you define "superpower."

Instead of gunning on the employment forums, go read your E&Es. Or just go have fun. You're class of 2014. Get lost and off these forums. Enjoy life.

[swc65]

Most firms have slightly increased their class sizes from last summer, but they aren't nearly as big as they were a few years ago. I personally think the legal market will never improve in our lifetime to "pre-ITE" levels.

Someone mentioned how firms said they were increasing class sizes - I know of a few firms that advertised they were increasing class sizes by X amount last year, but only increased them slightly this year.

A. Why anon?

2. Based on what?

C. Flashback to 2006 when 40K bonuses for first years were being dolled out

4. Flashback to tech bubble when the sky was falling.

This has all happened before and it will all happen again (just ask the Gods of Kobol).

[Stanislaw Carter]

C. Flashback to 2006 when 40K bonuses for first years were being dolled out

4. Flashback to tech bubble when the sky was falling.

This has all happened before and it will all happen again (just ask the Gods of Kobol).

...doesn't take a genius to realize that the tech bubble burst was fundamentally different from the current bubble burst, and that the current one exposed structural economic flaws. Didn't you say you were going to outline?

[AreJay711]

Well first of all, see the source.

Really? Thats the best you can do? I'll just assume you didn't say this.

Second, I only kept one quote but they all say the same thing, being equal or slightly bigger with 3 times the population doesn't make it a superpower. The BRICs are important because they are growing so fast and will cause a re-weighting of the world's economic activity but the term "super power" is not implied in that and something you incorrectly attributed to the report.

Just depends on how you define "superpower."

Instead of gunning on the employment forums, go read your E&Es. Or just go have fun. You're class of 2014. Get lost and off these forums. Enjoy life.

Im at work so this is enjoying life ..... ..... ...... .....

[swc65]

C. Flashback to 2006 when 40K bonuses for first years were being dolled out

4. Flashback to tech bubble when the sky was falling.

This has all happened before and it will all happen again (just ask the Gods of Kobol).

...doesn't take a genius to realize that the tech bubble burst was fundamentally different from the current bubble burst, and that the current one exposed structural economic flaws. Didn't you say you were going to outline?

go read "This Time is Different." I'm just saying this shit is cyclical. People were praising the US economy a few years ago. Cursing a few years before that and praising it a few years before that. And I can do both. besides, antitrust law refutation isnt that hard since it was generally made by people with little understanding of economics and context.

[Stanislaw Carter]

go read "This Time is Different." I'm just saying this shit is cyclical. People were praising the US economy a few years ago. Cursing a few years before that and praising it a few years before that.

Duh it's cyclical. But that doesn't mean that things have to go up in the same frequencies of time. See: Stagflation.

[swc65]

go read "This Time is Different." I'm just saying this shit is cyclical. People were praising the US economy a few years ago. Cursing a few years before that and praising it a few years before that.

Duh it's cyclical. But that doesn't mean that things have to go up in the same frequencies of time. See: Stagflation.

My point exactly See the 70s then the mid 80s, the the early 90s, then the mid/late 90s. also there's no reason for you to be a jerk to people and tell them to get lost. If you can't handle someone disagreeing with your assertions then you might want to rethink the whole lawyer thing.

history doesn't always repeat itself, but it does rhyme.

[Stanislaw Carter]

If you can't handle someone disagreeing with your assertions then you might want to rethink the whole lawyer thing.

Cool your jets, kid. I'm telling the guy to get lost for his own sake, not because he disagrees. Similarly, get back to outlining. Arguing with me won't help you snag that V5.

[swc65]

If you can't handle someone disagreeing with your assertions then you might want to rethink the whole lawyer thing.

Cool your jets, kid. I'm telling the guy to get lost for his own sake, not because he disagrees. Similarly, get back to outlining. Arguing with me won't help you snag that V5.

No it wont, but it's more fun!!!

[Kohinoor]

some people think summer hiring has returned to pre recession levels

nobody in the world thinks that.

[droges]

Probably should change 'to pre recession levels' to 'towards pre recession levels'.

[Kohinoor]

Probably should change 'to pre recession levels' to 'towards pre recession levels'.

In that case, everybody agrees that it is true but that the uptick in absolute numbers isn't enough to change the calculus of whether to attend law school.

[romothesavior]

Probably should change 'to pre recession levels' to 'towards pre recession levels'.

In that case, everybody agrees that it is true but that the uptick in absolute numbers isn't enough to change the calculus of whether to attend law school.

This.

[dooood]

Believe me, I wasn't weighing in on whether or not you cared. You're just expressing yourself in ridiculous generalities: "there's so much happening in the world today that the writing is on the wall." And the "race" for elite US firms to open foreign offices? Not much of a race; this has been happening since the Coolidge administration.

Really? Do you want to count the number of foreign offices opened in the last decade? The last 20 years? Let's compare that to the number of foreign offices opened around the time of the Coolidge administration.

As for the "international flavor" on mega-deals (whatever that means), I'm assuming you're talking about M&A activity? Of the 46 companies involved in the 23 largest mergers and acquisitions last year, 29 were American firms (either the target or acquirer - more often acquirer). http://www.currentpartnering.com/scorecard/manda2010.

So what? The fact that foreign companies are so heavily implicated speaks volumes.

As for your theory that the crisis in Libya or the earthquake in Japan are affecting biglaw hiring practices, I'm not even going to dignify that with a response.

I think this is a convenient and cute way for you to say why you're right, but it's really just sophism. But take it from someone who is actually working in the deal pipeline. Being an insider is not really necessary to realize this common sense notion that global events influence liquidity and the capital markets in fundamental ways. Whatever influences such markets influences the financing for deals, and therefore influences M&A. Even aside from M&A, the number of IPOs put on hold even in the last year or so just demonstrates the uncertainty companies feel in the current market. These things influence the work pipeline and therefore influence hiring. You act like hiring partners have a magic ball and know exactly what their needs will be in two years and can determine the size of their summer classes down to a T. Nope. The number will vary constantly. The fact that 3L hiring is still taking place at many firms is a testament to this (and similarly, the fact that so many firms still no-offered many this past summer is also a testament).

Regarding whether the US is "in decline," I find it pretty shocking that you fail to realize this. That Goldman Sachs analyst coined BRICS for a reason; they're the next super powers and they're rising quickly. It's no surprise that US firms have flocked to open offices in those countries (except for India, mostly because of protectionist legislation).

"The fact that foreign companies are so heavily implicated speaks volumes?" So heavily implicated in worldwide mergers and acquisitions? So.....American companies being involved in 63% of the 23 largest M&A deals worldwide last year isn't enough for you, huh? 5% of the world's population and 63% of its M&A activity is evidence of American decline? Think about that.

Look, I appreciate your trying to steer 0Ls in the right direction, because things are bad out there, but your advice is misguided for two reasons. First off, you seem to think that America is the only country in the world in a recession. Shit is bad everywhere, and, by a lot of measures, the recession is hitting BRIC countries harder than it's hitting us, because FDI (on which they rely much more heavily than we) dried up when the credit markets froze.

Second, of course the bolded above is true. But, guess what? It's always been true. Of course the earthquake in Japan and the unrest in Libya affect oil prices, which in turn increases the cost of capital for many projects/investments and could conceivably go into hiring partners' decisions. But, THIS IS NOT NEWS. In the last decade alone, we've seen the tech bubble collapse, 9/11, two wars in the middle east, Hurricane Katrina, the BP oil spill; the list goes on and on. But, hold on, world, you're not ready for......wait for it......a crisis in Libya and an earthquake in Japan. These are the real x-factors that will leave hiring partners gouging out their eyes from the difficulty in predicting future supply and demand.

[Stanislaw Carter]

Believe me, I wasn't weighing in on whether or not you cared. You're just expressing yourself in ridiculous generalities: "there's so much happening in the world today that the writing is on the wall." And the "race" for elite US firms to open foreign offices? Not much of a race; this has been happening since the Coolidge administration.

Really? Do you want to count the number of foreign offices opened in the last decade? The last 20 years? Let's compare that to the number of foreign offices opened around the time of the Coolidge administration.

As for the "international flavor" on mega-deals (whatever that means), I'm assuming you're talking about M&A activity? Of the 46 companies involved in the 23 largest mergers and acquisitions last year, 29 were American firms (either the target or acquirer - more often acquirer). http://www.currentpartnering.com/scorecard/manda2010.

So what? The fact that foreign companies are so heavily implicated speaks volumes.

As for your theory that the crisis in Libya or the earthquake in Japan are affecting biglaw hiring practices, I'm not even going to dignify that with a response.

I think this is a convenient and cute way for you to say why you're right, but it's really just sophism. But take it from someone who is actually working in the deal pipeline. Being an insider is not really necessary to realize this common sense notion that global events influence liquidity and the capital markets in fundamental ways. Whatever influences such markets influences the financing for deals, and therefore influences M&A. Even aside from M&A, the number of IPOs put on hold even in the last year or so just demonstrates the uncertainty companies feel in the current market. These things influence the work pipeline and therefore influence hiring. You act like hiring partners have a magic ball and know exactly what their needs will be in two years and can determine the size of their summer classes down to a T. Nope. The number will vary constantly. The fact that 3L hiring is still taking place at many firms is a testament to this (and similarly, the fact that so many firms still no-offered many this past summer is also a testament).

Regarding whether the US is "in decline," I find it pretty shocking that you fail to realize this. That Goldman Sachs analyst coined BRICS for a reason; they're the next super powers and they're rising quickly. It's no surprise that US firms have flocked to open offices in those countries (except for India, mostly because of protectionist legislation).

"The fact that foreign companies are so heavily implicated speaks volumes?" So heavily implicated in worldwide mergers and acquisitions? So.....American companies being involved in 63% of the 23 largest M&A deals worldwide last year isn't enough for you, huh? 5% of the world's population and 63% of its M&A activity is evidence of American decline? Think about that.

Look, I appreciate your trying to steer 0Ls in the right direction, because things are bad out there, but your advice is misguided for two reasons. First off, you seem to think that America is the only country in the world in a recession. Shit is bad everywhere, and, by a lot of measures, the recession is hitting BRIC countries harder than it's hitting us, because FDI (on which they rely much more heavily than we) dried up when the credit markets froze.

Second, of course the bolded above is true. But, guess what? It's always been true. Of course the earthquake in Japan and the unrest in Libya affect oil prices, which in turn increases the cost of capital for many projects/investments and could conceivably go into hiring partners' decisions. But, THIS IS NOT NEWS. In the last decade alone, we've seen the tech bubble collapse, 9/11, two wars in the middle east, Hurricane Katrina, the BP oil spill; the list goes on and on. But, hold on, world, you're not ready for......wait for it......a crisis in Libya and an earthquake in Japan. These are the real x-factors that will leave hiring partners gouging out their eyes from the difficulty in predicting future supply and demand.

"I'm not even going to dignify [this] with a response."

u mad bro? oh u mad.