Another sign that ITE is almost over

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geoduck
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby geoduck » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:33 pm

Kohinoor wrote:
geoduck wrote:
bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


It is a lot. For example, were he collecting unemployment, he would be required to have three job search actions per week which include application submissions, interviews, and a few other things. He had 15 interviews over 52 weeks. (52*3)-15= 141 job application submissions that the government would have expected him to do were he on unemployment. He did 59 more than that or roughly 1.13 extra job applications per week with a total of 3.85 job searches per week. You think that finding 3.85 jobs per week that you actually qualify for is easy? At first you can easily beat that amount, but it gets hard after a while, especially if you are trying to stay in a field and not just take whatever shit job that won't even pay your rent.

monster.com


Failpost. Craigslist is actually almost better than monster for a lot of industries and when every job posting is getting 20-200 responses, it hardly helps. My wife did the unemployed thing for 6 months applying 3-5 times a week... ended up getting only 3 interviews before finally nailing a position that wasn't even posted because they had kept her information after the interview.

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bk1
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:42 pm

geoduck wrote:
bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


It is a lot. For example, were he collecting unemployment, he would be required to have three job search actions per week which include application submissions, interviews, and a few other things. He had 15 interviews over 52 weeks. (52*3)-15= 141 job application submissions that the government would have expected him to do were he on unemployment. He did 59 more than that or roughly 1.13 extra job applications per week with a total of 3.85 job searches per week. You think that finding 3.85 jobs per week that you actually qualify for is easy? At first you can easily beat that amount, but it gets hard after a while, especially if you are trying to stay in a field and not just take whatever shit job that won't even pay your rent.


But that's not what we're talking about. At least it wasn't what I was talking about. I understand it can be a lot for a specific field where one is trying to find a job that has growth potential. However, if one is merely trying to find employment to sustain oneself while retaking/reapplying, I don't think it is very difficult and that seemed to be the person's argument re: retake/reapply... that it was somehow hard to find employment to sustain oneself for a year.

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geoduck
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby geoduck » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:58 pm

I don't think you've been dealing with ITE that much. This is 20 plus apps for every job depending on your city, including ones that barely pay rent. There is a reason that graduation employment rates have more than halved since CO2008. Right now it isn't as simple as just get a job.

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bk1
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:00 pm

geoduck wrote:I don't think you've been dealing with ITE that much. This is 20 plus apps for every job depending on your city, including ones that barely pay rent. There is a reason that graduation employment rates have more than halved since CO2008. Right now it isn't as simple as just get a job.


Maybe I have had some lucky friends but pretty much all of the ones in college still have managed to snag jobs as either paper pushers or 2 part time waitering/food service gigs.

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geoduck
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby geoduck » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:31 pm

bk1 wrote:
geoduck wrote:I don't think you've been dealing with ITE that much. This is 20 plus apps for every job depending on your city, including ones that barely pay rent. There is a reason that graduation employment rates have more than halved since CO2008. Right now it isn't as simple as just get a job.


Maybe I have had some lucky friends but pretty much all of the ones in college still have managed to snag jobs as either paper pushers or 2 part time waitering/food service gigs.


It does depend on the town, but here in Seattle restaurants are/were closing. Hard to get a waiting gig when the market's shrinking and decent waiters from closed restaurants are going for it. The jobs that are hiring fresh grads are generally hiring them cause they can pay less.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:33 pm

geoduck wrote:It does depend on the town, but here in Seattle restaurants are/were closing. Hard to get a waiting gig when the market's shrinking and decent waiters from closed restaurants are going for it. The jobs that are hiring fresh grads are generally hiring them cause they can pay less.


I'm from the Bay Area and I've seen both restaurants opening and closing so I can't really tell the overall trend. However, I could survive on minimum wage out here ($9-$10/hour) if I tried hard for it.

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DoubleChecks
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby DoubleChecks » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:37 pm

alumniguy wrote:First, finding "a" job in most metropolitan areas is NOT difficult. Sure, you'll be making $10/$15 an hour, but you'll be able to live frugally on that amount. The alternative is to go to law school and most likely incur serious levels of debt.

Frankly, kids just out of college have NO IDEA WHAT IT MEANS TO SERVICE DEBT. I certainly didn't when I applied for law school. I've mentioned this on other threads as well, so bear with me if you've ran across this but I am in biglaw as we speak - nyc market. I make market salary and that leaves me with about $7k/month after taxes. My rent is $2k (which is a pretty good deal here and I don't know too many people who are paying less than I do unless they have roommates), my debt service on $150k in loans is about $2k a month - THAT IS THE MINIMUM PAYMENT - which leaves about $4k of discretionary spending. Sure I've been making more than the minimum,s but I am still at about $100k in debt after 2.5 years in biglaw. While I am financially fine at the moment, if/when I leave biglaw I am going to have to find another well paid job (which may be a problem) and/or drastically alter my lifestyle.

I hope that ALL 0Ls realize that most biglaw associates don't make it past 3-4 years in a firm. Firms are built and run on a pyramid scheme. Whether it is self-selection out or forced out, the statistics don't lie. To incur $100k+ in debt for a few years making a handsome salary probably isn't worth it -- especially in today's legal environment. Once you leave biglaw, your salary typically takes a drastic pay cut (sure there will be exceptions, but you shouldn't make your decisions always thinking that you are that exception).

Also, even if you are "interested in law" that doesn't translate to "interested in biglaw/corporate work." Law school is unlike the practice of biglaw. Biglaw is all about being deep in the weeds on most issues and as a junior associate, is mostly research and somewhat mindless drafting of form documents.


wow at $160k, you only take in ~$7k a month after taxes but pre-debt and housing? nyc is insane lol

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby BruceWayne » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:43 pm

DoubleChecks wrote:
alumniguy wrote:First, finding "a" job in most metropolitan areas is NOT difficult. Sure, you'll be making $10/$15 an hour, but you'll be able to live frugally on that amount. The alternative is to go to law school and most likely incur serious levels of debt.

Frankly, kids just out of college have NO IDEA WHAT IT MEANS TO SERVICE DEBT. I certainly didn't when I applied for law school. I've mentioned this on other threads as well, so bear with me if you've ran across this but I am in biglaw as we speak - nyc market. I make market salary and that leaves me with about $7k/month after taxes. My rent is $2k (which is a pretty good deal here and I don't know too many people who are paying less than I do unless they have roommates), my debt service on $150k in loans is about $2k a month - THAT IS THE MINIMUM PAYMENT - which leaves about $4k of discretionary spending. Sure I've been making more than the minimum,s but I am still at about $100k in debt after 2.5 years in biglaw. While I am financially fine at the moment, if/when I leave biglaw I am going to have to find another well paid job (which may be a problem) and/or drastically alter my lifestyle.

I hope that ALL 0Ls realize that most biglaw associates don't make it past 3-4 years in a firm. Firms are built and run on a pyramid scheme. Whether it is self-selection out or forced out, the statistics don't lie. To incur $100k+ in debt for a few years making a handsome salary probably isn't worth it -- especially in today's legal environment. Once you leave biglaw, your salary typically takes a drastic pay cut (sure there will be exceptions, but you shouldn't make your decisions always thinking that you are that exception).

Also, even if you are "interested in law" that doesn't translate to "interested in biglaw/corporate work." Law school is unlike the practice of biglaw. Biglaw is all about being deep in the weeds on most issues and as a junior associate, is mostly research and somewhat mindless drafting of form documents.


wow at $160k, you only take in ~$7k a month after taxes but pre-debt and housing? nyc is insane lol


I don't know why people on here talk about it as if it's so great, and I've been saying it for years, but NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt. The insane COL, the insane tax rate, and the high hours all add up to a pretty bad deal. But people on here talk as if landing a "V10" or "V5" job is the holy grail of post law school employment and a sign of great success.
Last edited by BruceWayne on Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:44 pm

BruceWayne wrote:NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt.


Explain to me then what a good deal would be that is attainable by a majority of T14 grads that can deal with $200,000 worth of debt.
Last edited by bk1 on Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Alex-Trof » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:46 pm

BruceWayne wrote:
I don't know why people on here talk about it as if it's so great, and I've been saying it for years, but NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt. The insane COL, the insane tax rate, and the high hours all add up to a pretty bad deal. But people on here talk as if landing a "V10" or "V5" job is the holy grail of post law school employment and a sign of great success.


I don't see how Big Law in LA, DC, SF, or Chicago would be any better if you ended up paying a sticker. It actually looks like Big Law in a secondary market is a much better idea.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:48 pm

DoubleChecks wrote: wow at $160k, you only take in ~$7k a month after taxes but pre-debt and housing? nyc is insane lol


Yes, after medical/vision/dental insurance, long term disability, transit pass, Flexible Spending Account and 401k.

But yes, that is my point. $160k, unless you live in a state w/o a state income tax, it doesn't go very far. If I could be guaranteed to make this my entire career, it would be fine (it would be great actually). However, my impression is that once you exit biglaw, your pay goes down significantly (low 100's or upper 5 figures) unless you lateral to another big firm or get lucky and pull a good gig in-house somewhere. Standard in-house gigs generally don't pay that much.

So ultimately, if you are deciding on law school and hoping for biglaw and the pay that goes along with it, but figure that you'll only stay for a few years, then you need to decide if you spent 7 years in another industry, would you be able to make about the same amount...I don't know b/c I haven't really looked into it. Curious though.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:55 pm

BruceWayne wrote:I don't know why people on here talk about it as if it's so great, and I've been saying it for years, but NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt. The insane COL, the insane tax rate, and the high hours all add up to a pretty bad deal. But people on here talk as if landing a "V10" or "V5" job is the holy grail of post law school employment and a sign of great success.


From someone living this, completely 100% credited.

Now, if you are a complete striver in life and don't mind working insane hours - both in unpredictability and length - and dedicating, and I mean DEDICATING yourself to your job, then V5 NY could really open up doors to millions later on in life. I'm sure there is some component of smarts involved, but once you get to a V5 I think it is more about putting in the hours and getting lucky for you to make partner or transition to a well paid GC role.

Maybe I'm a slacker, but I want a nice cushy 9-5 job that pays about $100k. With my bigdebt, that makes it hard.

Also, I guess I would disagree with BruceWayne in so far as he seems to indicate that outside of NYC it makes more sense because CoL is less. While this is true, I'd encourage everyone to look at salaries for ALL classes at a firm and you'll quickly realize that firms that are not located in high CoL cities, don't pay as much in midlevel/senior associate salaries as their high CoL city counterparts.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby geoduck » Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:58 pm

bk1 wrote:
geoduck wrote:It does depend on the town, but here in Seattle restaurants are/were closing. Hard to get a waiting gig when the market's shrinking and decent waiters from closed restaurants are going for it. The jobs that are hiring fresh grads are generally hiring them cause they can pay less.


I'm from the Bay Area and I've seen both restaurants opening and closing so I can't really tell the overall trend. However, I could survive on minimum wage out here ($9-$10/hour) if I tried hard for it.


Survive, sure. Though it'd be way harder than you think, especially if you don't have easy transportation to allow living in cheaper areas. But restaurant turnover does not mean easy pickings. The amounts of resumes per job is pretty insane ITE and you're often lucky to even get an interview. And people can be more selective for good jobs because of it. If you don't already have a job lined up, just wait a year and retake really isn't an option for some people.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:00 pm

bk1 wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt.


Explain to me then what a good deal would be that is attainable by a majority of T14 grads that can deal with $200,000 worth of debt.


Other than the person probably shouldn't have gone into so much debt, I'd argue that a secondary market (or a branch office of a firm located in a major market) with low state taxes is about as good as you're going to get in terms of pure $$$.

The real problem with $200k of debt is that most associates don't last long enough in biglaw for the debt to be worth it. Associates leave biglaw by trading down to "lifestyle" firms (if those even exist in today's world) or go in-house or leave the law all together. Yea, so you paid down your debt to $100k, but you're still faced with $100k in debt and likely making a salary that you could have obtained if you had forgone law school and dedicated 7 years of so to working yourself up the ladder.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby 09042014 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:01 pm

alumniguy wrote:
Kohinoor wrote:ITE is almost over re PPP. ITE is in full swing re your employment prospects.


ITE IS over for most firms re PPP (only the firms that have taken a serious hit to their business and likely won't recover aren't back to pre-ITE PPP). We're seeing $3mil+ PPP from several firms and a significant number of $2mil+ PPP - that wasn't the case even pre-ITE.

However, ITE re your employment prospects is completely accurate. If you ask me, ITE is going to be here for a very long time (there just isn't enough legal demand anymore and there are far too many big firms - especially with the spat of consolidation in the past 5-10 years - and they are all jockeying for the same business).


Except litigation isn't down. And corporate activity is back in full swing. The only demand that's down and won't come back is securities packaging. But that really only took off in the last boom.

Just prior to ITE is just as abnormal as during the crash was.

Firms are stable, midlevel hiring is good, which is a good leading indicator.

That doesn't mean this OCI will be booming, but I'll be better than last. And the one after will be slightly better. After that it should be about normal.

Hiring isn't going to go back to boom levels, it was unsustainable.

For the mean time they will just work their associates harder, but the work is there.
Last edited by 09042014 on Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Alex-Trof » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:03 pm

alumniguy wrote:
bk1 wrote:
BruceWayne wrote:NYC biglaw is NOT a good deal if you have serious debt.


Explain to me then what a good deal would be that is attainable by a majority of T14 grads that can deal with $200,000 worth of debt.


Other than the person probably shouldn't have gone into so much debt, I'd argue that a secondary market (or a branch office of a firm located in a major market) with low state taxes is about as good as you're going to get in terms of pure $$$.

The real problem with $200k of debt is that most associates don't last long enough in biglaw for the debt to be worth it. Associates leave biglaw by trading down to "lifestyle" firms (if those even exist in today's world) or go in-house or leave the law all together. Yea, so you paid down your debt to $100k, but you're still faced with $100k in debt and likely making a salary that you could have obtained if you had forgone law school and dedicated 7 years of so to working yourself up the ladder.

Is turnover in secondary market Big Law just as bad?

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby keg411 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:09 pm

I've been aware of this for a few months now, but :).

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby 09042014 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:13 pm

160K take home in Illinois is about 99. You can easily live on 40K (in after tax money) near firms . But that's still 4-5 years of massive repayment before you go debt free.

This is why people who turn down big scholarships at lower T14 for T6, who want big law, are LOL.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:34 pm

Alex-Trof wrote:Is turnover in secondary market Big Law just as bad?


Not really that familiar. My instincts say not as bad (primarily because they don't hire as many juniors to start off with), but not that far off either. Though partnership prospects are just as bad.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:36 pm

Desert Fox wrote:160K take home in Illinois is about 99. You can easily live on 40K (in after tax money) near firms . But that's still 4-5 years of massive repayment before you go debt free.

This is why people who turn down big scholarships at lower T14 for T6, who want big law, are LOL.


Yea, if you get a scholly to a T14, you'd be dumb to turn it down if you sole desire was biglaw and $$$. Some people may legitimately be interested in clerking/academia, which could be a factor, but if you're only looking for the paycheck it is not well thought out to pay sticker at a T-6 over a scholly at a T-14.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:37 pm

alumniguy wrote:Other than the person probably shouldn't have gone into so much debt, I'd argue that a secondary market (or a branch office of a firm located in a major market) with low state taxes is about as good as you're going to get in terms of pure $$$.


But these jobs are insanely less plentiful compared to NYC biglaw and this presumes one has connections to these areas in order to make these kinds of jobs even a possibility.

The problem with BruceWayne's argument is that NYC biglaw is probably the most plentiful source of jobs for graduates who are trying to pay down $200k in a hurry. Sure, we'd all like to work somewhere where the taxes are lower and the billables are less, but that isn't a realistic option.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 5:53 pm

Desert Fox wrote:Except litigation isn't down. And corporate activity is back in full swing. The only demand that's down and won't come back is securities packaging. But that really only took off in the last boom.

Just prior to ITE is just as abnormal as during the crash was.

Firms are stable, midlevel hiring is good, which is a good leading indicator.

That doesn't mean this OCI will be booming, but I'll be better than last. And the one after will be slightly better. After that it should be about normal.

Hiring isn't going to go back to boom levels, it was unsustainable.

For the mean time they will just work their associates harder, but the work is there.


I take your point. My response would be that firm dynamics have changed so much since ITE, the firms are run differently today than they were 5 years ago. A lot of work traditionally given to first year associates are being contracted out. I see this trend continuing - especially in litigation. Not so much because firms are requiring it (lets be honest - a first year doing 2000+ hours of doc review is making the firm money), but because clients won't pay the rates that firms are setting for the junior associates. Firms are lean and mean today and I would guess that firm management would like this to continue for as long as is possible. That coupled with the sputtering economy means less hiring in my opinion.

I guess time will tell.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby DoubleChecks » Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:28 pm

bk1 wrote:
alumniguy wrote:Other than the person probably shouldn't have gone into so much debt, I'd argue that a secondary market (or a branch office of a firm located in a major market) with low state taxes is about as good as you're going to get in terms of pure $$$.


But these jobs are insanely less plentiful compared to NYC biglaw and this presumes one has connections to these areas in order to make these kinds of jobs even a possibility.

The problem with BruceWayne's argument is that NYC biglaw is probably the most plentiful source of jobs for graduates who are trying to pay down $200k in a hurry. Sure, we'd all like to work somewhere where the taxes are lower and the billables are less, but that isn't a realistic option.


For the most part I agree with you bk, but BW's comment could also represent the idea that people shouldn't be running to the profession of law in the hopes of $$$, even if NYC biglaw is a realistic option for them.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:33 pm

DoubleChecks wrote:For the most part I agree with you bk, but BW's comment could also represent the idea that people shouldn't be running to the profession of law in the hopes of $$$, even if NYC biglaw is a realistic option for them.


Overall his argument can be taken that way, but he made a very specific point about people with lots of debt and said that NYC biglaw is not a good deal for them. Maybe his and my definition of "good deal" differs as mine happens to be, when you are in massive debt, whatever will get you out of debt fastest even if it is miserable.

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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby vanwinkle » Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:45 pm

ITT: Folks debate whether we're returning to an economy that even then wasn't creating enough legal jobs for even half the law students graduating each year.




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