Another sign that ITE is almost over

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icouldbuyu
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Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby icouldbuyu » Wed Mar 30, 2011 11:40 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-3 ... ehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels

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cmraider
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby cmraider » Wed Mar 30, 2011 11:54 am

As someone who felt the full brunt of ITE, I hang on to every sliver of optimism I can grasp when it comes to economic indicators. However, someone who has been under/unemployed for more than a year, I'm ready to see some actual progress. I still get my hopes up when I see the Dow surpass 12,000, weekly unemployment claims drop, consumer confidence increase and all the plethora of indices climb. However, I still don't feel like I'm benefiting from any of this "improved economy." Pretty much all my friends with college degrees who graduated the same time I did (2009) still don't have real jobs and many of us are living with our parents, working in jobs which don't require a degree and are pretty much at the same spot we were 12-18 months ago.

On a separate note, it always irks me when people on this board suggest to someone in the Choosing a Law School forum to retake, reapply and work during the year in between, as if it's so easy. If I had a decent job right now, I wouldn't be applying to law school. The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester. I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010, and I ended up working at the same job I did during UG. Hell I had fewer than 15 interviews in '10. So this notion of "just work for a year, duh" really grates my nerves.

/rant

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Stonewall
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Stonewall » Wed Mar 30, 2011 11:59 am

cmraider wrote:As someone who felt the full brunt of ITE, I hang on to every sliver of optimism I can grasp when it comes to economic indicators. However, someone who has been under/unemployed for more than a year, I'm ready to see some actual progress. I still get my hopes up when I see the Dow surpass 12,000, weekly unemployment claims drop, consumer confidence increase and all the plethora of indices climb. However, I still don't feel like I'm benefiting from any of this "improved economy." Pretty much all my friends with college degrees who graduated the same time I did (2009) still don't have real jobs and many of us are living with our parents, working in jobs which don't require a degree and are pretty much at the same spot we were 12-18 months ago.

On a separate note, it always irks me when people on this board suggest to someone in the Choosing a Law School forum to retake, reapply and work during the year in between, as if it's so easy. If I had a decent job right now, I wouldn't be applying to law school. The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester. I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010, and I ended up working at the same job I did during UG. Hell I had fewer than 15 interviews in '10. So this notion of "just work for a year, duh" really grates my nerves.

/rant


it can be aggrivating but at the same time there are certain threads on here where re-take/ reapply / year off really is in the best interest of the OP.

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TommyK
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby TommyK » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:03 pm

cmraider wrote:As someone who felt the full brunt of ITE, I hang on to every sliver of optimism I can grasp when it comes to economic indicators. However, someone who has been under/unemployed for more than a year, I'm ready to see some actual progress. I still get my hopes up when I see the Dow surpass 12,000, weekly unemployment claims drop, consumer confidence increase and all the plethora of indices climb. However, I still don't feel like I'm benefiting from any of this "improved economy." Pretty much all my friends with college degrees who graduated the same time I did (2009) still don't have real jobs and many of us are living with our parents, working in jobs which don't require a degree and are pretty much at the same spot we were 12-18 months ago.

On a separate note, it always irks me when people on this board suggest to someone in the Choosing a Law School forum to retake, reapply and work during the year in between, as if it's so easy. If I had a decent job right now, I wouldn't be applying to law school. The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester. I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010, and I ended up working at the same job I did during UG. Hell I had fewer than 15 interviews in '10. So this notion of "just work for a year, duh" really grates my nerves.

/rant


I predict those from the 2009 class graduating undergrad will continue to experience problems even when the economy rebounds. If you're a company looking to onboard new, young talent, you'll be more open to considering graduating seniors with a lot of promise than those who graduated three years ago who have been working retail and in call centers and as general laborers. Sure, those people have demonstrated perhaps some of the soft skills you pay lip service to, but there will always be that question of why they were unable to find jobs when others were. Fair or unfair, I think that will be the perception for a lot of employers. Many people will be able to climb their way out and network and lateral their way into jobs that they would have expected straight out of undergrad, but the pathway may very well be longer than anticipated.

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gbpackerbacker
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby gbpackerbacker » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:03 pm

cmraider wrote:As someone who felt the full brunt of ITE, I hang on to every sliver of optimism I can grasp when it comes to economic indicators. However, someone who has been under/unemployed for more than a year, I'm ready to see some actual progress. I still get my hopes up when I see the Dow surpass 12,000, weekly unemployment claims drop, consumer confidence increase and all the plethora of indices climb. However, I still don't feel like I'm benefiting from any of this "improved economy." Pretty much all my friends with college degrees who graduated the same time I did (2009) still don't have real jobs and many of us are living with our parents, working in jobs which don't require a degree and are pretty much at the same spot we were 12-18 months ago.

On a separate note, it always irks me when people on this board suggest to someone in the Choosing a Law School forum to retake, reapply and work during the year in between, as if it's so easy. If I had a decent job right now, I wouldn't be applying to law school. The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester. I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010, and I ended up working at the same job I did during UG. Hell I had fewer than 15 interviews in '10. So this notion of "just work for a year, duh" really grates my nerves.

/rant


How about being terrified by not having a job after you're in debt after law school? Not taking "retake" advice because you're scared of unemployment is moronic, completely idiotic, really...

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Alex-Trof
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Alex-Trof » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:06 pm

cmraider wrote:As someone who felt the full brunt of ITE, I hang on to every sliver of optimism I can grasp when it comes to economic indicators. However, someone who has been under/unemployed for more than a year, I'm ready to see some actual progress. I still get my hopes up when I see the Dow surpass 12,000, weekly unemployment claims drop, consumer confidence increase and all the plethora of indices climb. However, I still don't feel like I'm benefiting from any of this "improved economy." Pretty much all my friends with college degrees who graduated the same time I did (2009) still don't have real jobs and many of us are living with our parents, working in jobs which don't require a degree and are pretty much at the same spot we were 12-18 months ago.

On a separate note, it always irks me when people on this board suggest to someone in the Choosing a Law School forum to retake, reapply and work during the year in between, as if it's so easy. If I had a decent job right now, I wouldn't be applying to law school. The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester. I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010, and I ended up working at the same job I did during UG. Hell I had fewer than 15 interviews in '10. So this notion of "just work for a year, duh" really grates my nerves.

/rant


Its a wrong reason to go to law school. If you don't have a job before, it will be just as difficult to find after. I apologize for being stalkish, but I noticed your major is journalism. I don't think the troubles you have finding a job with that major are prevalent in every other field.

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cmraider
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby cmraider » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:17 pm

Alex-Trof wrote:Its a wrong reason to go to law school.

It's not the only reason I want to go to LS. I've been interested in the law since I was in HS. It's something I have been seriously considering for 5+ years. However, I'd be remiss to say my employment situation had no bearing on my decision.

The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester.

I feel like the replies in this thread have overlooked the bolded.

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Alex-Trof
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Alex-Trof » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:37 pm

cmraider wrote:
Alex-Trof wrote:Its a wrong reason to go to law school.

It's not the only reason I want to go to LS. I've been interested in the law since I was in HS. It's something I have been seriously considering for 5+ years. However, I'd be remiss to say my employment situation had no bearing on my decision.

The fact I'm probably going to retake and reapply terrifies me because I don't know what I'm going to do for the 18 months between now and the start of the Fall '12 semester.

I feel like the replies in this thread have overlooked the bolded.

If finding a job is something that is your #1 concern, why don't you look into nursing school or something like that. It actually costs way less, easier to finish, and has better salary and job prospects.

alumniguy
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 12:37 pm

First, finding "a" job in most metropolitan areas is NOT difficult. Sure, you'll be making $10/$15 an hour, but you'll be able to live frugally on that amount. The alternative is to go to law school and most likely incur serious levels of debt.

Frankly, kids just out of college have NO IDEA WHAT IT MEANS TO SERVICE DEBT. I certainly didn't when I applied for law school. I've mentioned this on other threads as well, so bear with me if you've ran across this but I am in biglaw as we speak - nyc market. I make market salary and that leaves me with about $7k/month after taxes. My rent is $2k (which is a pretty good deal here and I don't know too many people who are paying less than I do unless they have roommates), my debt service on $150k in loans is about $2k a month - THAT IS THE MINIMUM PAYMENT - which leaves about $4k of discretionary spending. Sure I've been making more than the minimum,s but I am still at about $100k in debt after 2.5 years in biglaw. While I am financially fine at the moment, if/when I leave biglaw I am going to have to find another well paid job (which may be a problem) and/or drastically alter my lifestyle.

I hope that ALL 0Ls realize that most biglaw associates don't make it past 3-4 years in a firm. Firms are built and run on a pyramid scheme. Whether it is self-selection out or forced out, the statistics don't lie. To incur $100k+ in debt for a few years making a handsome salary probably isn't worth it -- especially in today's legal environment. Once you leave biglaw, your salary typically takes a drastic pay cut (sure there will be exceptions, but you shouldn't make your decisions always thinking that you are that exception).

Also, even if you are "interested in law" that doesn't translate to "interested in biglaw/corporate work." Law school is unlike the practice of biglaw. Biglaw is all about being deep in the weeds on most issues and as a junior associate, is mostly research and somewhat mindless drafting of form documents.

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baboon309
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby baboon309 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:12 pm

icouldbuyu wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels


what about this one

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Drop in home prices in January raises fear of double dip

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bk1
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:14 pm

cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.

alumniguy
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:28 pm

bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


Guess I over looked that. Well, to me that sounds like a lot! I wonder if there was a strategy involved in his/her application process? I would imagine that at some point you'd need to lower your expectations and apply to a "saftey" type job that you know you'll get an interview/offer at.

I was a waiter after college before law school. I made decent money and had a great time enjoying a little time off from school before the next phase of my life. Was this a sustainable life-long job, of course not. But, it was a job.

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bk1
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:31 pm

alumniguy wrote:Guess I over looked that. Well, to me that sounds like a lot! I wonder if there was a strategy involved in his/her application process? I would imagine that at some point you'd need to lower your expectations and apply to a "saftey" type job that you know you'll get an interview/offer at.

I was a waiter after college before law school. I made decent money and had a great time enjoying a little time off from school before the next phase of my life. Was this a sustainable life-long job, of course not. But, it was a job.


Maybe it might be different in a rural area, but coming from a large urban/suburban area, it isn't very hard to fire off 200 applications.

If it was all or mostly jobs that were from contacts or in person or low level jobs (e.g. food service, sales, etc) then I could agree that 200 is a decent amount. But I think if you're not getting something set your sights lower. You can sustain yourself on minimum wage, it may not be easy, but it is definitely doable.

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icouldbuyu
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby icouldbuyu » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:33 pm

baboon309 wrote:
icouldbuyu wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels


what about this one

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Drop in home prices in January raises fear of double dip


"according to price index numbers released Tuesday. Analysts said the decrease might be a harbinger of a double-dip recession in the housing market."

This simply claims that there may be a double-dip recession within the housing market- not the market as a whole. The forces driving the entire market are not perfectly correlated, so certain drivers will lag behind others. The key in evaluating future economic growth is to grant certain forces greater weight based on their proportional influence on the greater market.

The Housing Market has only a limited weight at this point since financial institutions have limited their overall exposure to the housing market by eliminating their CDO and CDS exposure. The housing market brought down the market in 2008 because the banks were not capitalized enough to hedge against their CDO and CDS positions. Consequently, the financial institutions could no longer loan out money since they needed their capital reserves to cover their CDS positions.

I'm not saying the housing market is completely irrelevant; however, its not that big of a deal at this point since it won't substantially inhibit corporate growth at this point.

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TommyK
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby TommyK » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:38 pm

baboon309 wrote:
icouldbuyu wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels


what about this one

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Drop in home prices in January raises fear of double dip


Now, I ain't no fancy big city economist *thumbs suspenders* but wouldn't those prices be compared to the previous year, while the insane tax credit was going on? The tax credit artificially kept prices higher. It should be no surprise that the average price decays to what the market is willing to bear. It's healthy. It just sucks for people like me who own property and want to sell. I think more relevant data will be surfaced by comps done more than a year after the tax credit expired.

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cmraider
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby cmraider » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:50 pm

alumniguy wrote:
bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


Guess I over looked that. Well, to me that sounds like a lot! I wonder if there was a strategy involved in his/her application process? I would imagine that at some point you'd need to lower your expectations and apply to a "saftey" type job that you know you'll get an interview/offer at.

I was a waiter after college before law school. I made decent money and had a great time enjoying a little time off from school before the next phase of my life. Was this a sustainable life-long job, of course not. But, it was a job.

It was a chore to find more than 200 jobs to apply for. Also, the majority of jobs that are available in my field are looking for experienced hires. That number would have been higher, but I didn't apply for jobs the entire year because for a few months I had a job which I was comfortable in (I had to quit, though) and I went through bouts of discouragement.

I've got a "safety" job, but that's the main problem. It's a low-wage, dead-end job, and it's taken a toll on my sanity. It's okay to have something like that for a few months, but after a while, you've got to move on. I did not go to college to "sustain myself on minimum wage." The problem is that my job outlook doesn't look any better in 2011 than it did in 2010.

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bk1
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby bk1 » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:55 pm

cmraider wrote:It was a chore to find more than 200 jobs to apply for. Also, the majority of jobs that are available in my field are looking for experienced hires. That number would have been higher, but I didn't apply for jobs the entire year because for a few months I had a job which I was comfortable in (I had to quit, though) and I went through bouts of discouragement.

I've got a "safety" job, but that's the main problem. It's a low-wage, dead-end job, and it's taken a toll on my sanity. It's okay to have something like that for a few months, but after a while, you've got to move on. I did not go to college to "sustain myself on minimum wage." The problem is that my job outlook doesn't look any better in 2011 than it did in 2010.


True but we're talking about the 1 year where you are retaking/reapplying and that your eventual job outlook should look better because you are going to a better school or getting a better scholarship than you were the year before.

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LettuceBeefRealTea
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby LettuceBeefRealTea » Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:59 pm

sounds like hell, bro. i wouldn't plan on the economy making a serious recovery anytime soon. i'm expecting a double dip.

1. Every conservative/opposition to QE in the FED has resigned.
-good for short term investment. fatal for systemic recovery. the stock market is being flooded with speculators instead of recognition of real value or job creation. a major market correction should hit once QE stops, if bernanke ever does stop.

2. Employment isn't pretty. It has stayed about the same despite QE. All that cash went into speculation, not job creation or investment.
-unless millions of jobs spring up in the next couple of months, QE3 is inevitable.

3. Housing prices are going to keep falling through at least the year, probably longer.
-Foreclosure rates are increasing. No one has jobs to stay in their houses, let alone buy new ones.
-Most people my age are living with their parents so that they can pay off student loans.

4. Japan faltering is going to hurt a lot of global growth and investment.

5. Assuming Libya is resolved somewhat quickly (it won't be), the new government is going to have to rebuild. Syria and Yemen are also still up in the air. Tension is still thick in Saudi Arabia. Prolonged elevated oil prices are going to hit the economy (really hard) sooner rather than later.

6. Confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency is slipping. Smart money is heading to Australia and Canada as well as gold, silver, and food.

7. US corporate tax is 35%. Ireland is 12.5%, and Swiss is 13% (I think). Companies incorporate in these countries and export millions of dollars in jobs. The US also loses trillions of dollars in taxes. Until this is fixed, the economy isn't going to be functioning full steam.

Ben isn't going to tighten anything up, let alone raise rates. Get on board the gravy train by speculating on the market. There's nothing to worry about until the track gives out and the engine falls silent.
Last edited by LettuceBeefRealTea on Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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LettuceBeefRealTea
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby LettuceBeefRealTea » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:09 pm

icouldbuyu wrote:
baboon309 wrote:
icouldbuyu wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels


what about this one

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Drop in home prices in January raises fear of double dip



This simply claims that there may be a double-dip recession within the housing market- not the market as a whole. The forces driving the entire market are not perfectly correlated, so certain drivers will lag behind others. The key in evaluating future economic growth is to grant certain forces greater weight based on their proportional influence on the greater market.

The Housing Market has only a limited weight at this point since financial institutions have limited their overall exposure to the housing market by eliminating their CDO and CDS exposure. The housing market brought down the market in 2008 because the banks were not capitalized enough to hedge against their CDO and CDS positions. Consequently, the financial institutions could no longer loan out money since they needed their capital reserves to cover their CDS positions.

I'm not saying the housing market is completely irrelevant; however, its not that big of a deal at this point since it won't substantially inhibit corporate growth at this point.


the housing market dipping isn't significant because of corporate ties. it is important because it is a sign post of people's ability to consume. the majority of people have their wealth tied up in their house.

1. if that value keeps going down and more peoples' mortgage becomes higher than the value of the house then defaults and foreclosures increase. banks have to process and find buyers for those houses (there aren't any). you end up with money being tied up in illiquid assets with questionable value.

2. people start paying rent instead of building up equity. this leads to stunting of long term growth.

3. people don't have major collateral to start new businesses, invest, buy a porshe, whatever.

4. perceived wealth goes down. people start living conservatively.

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Mick Haller
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Mick Haller » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:18 pm

I don't know that wall street or big corporate activity is any indicator of employment prospects anymore. wall street has been doing well for over a year now and it hasn't contributed to any meaningful employment bump.

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Always Credited
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Always Credited » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:18 pm

I'm firmly of the mindset that if you're factoring market fluctuations and economic downturns prominently into your decision to go to law school, you're looking at it far too much as simply an investment...and that is hardly ever a good idea. If you're looking at a law career in these terms, law is very likely NOT going to be the career for you.

EDIT to clarify: If you're going into the decision making process with the practice of law incidental to your interest in financial gain from law, you're very likely going to be in deep shit. Many problems would be outright avoided if people entered the process with their financial expectations incidental to their interest in the practice of the law.

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geoduck
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby geoduck » Wed Mar 30, 2011 2:24 pm

bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


It is a lot. For example, were he collecting unemployment, he would be required to have three job search actions per week which include application submissions, interviews, and a few other things. He had 15 interviews over 52 weeks. (52*3)-15= 141 job application submissions that the government would have expected him to do were he on unemployment. He did 59 more than that or roughly 1.13 extra job applications per week with a total of 3.85 job searches per week. You think that finding 3.85 jobs per week that you actually qualify for is easy? At first you can easily beat that amount, but it gets hard after a while, especially if you are trying to stay in a field and not just take whatever shit job that won't even pay your rent.

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Kohinoor
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Kohinoor » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:22 pm

icouldbuyu wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-30/new-deal-rush-pushes-takeovers-to-most-expensive-since-lehman.html

M&A deals are increasing to pre-ITE levels

ITE is almost over re PPP. ITE is in full swing re your employment prospects.

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Kohinoor
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby Kohinoor » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:23 pm

geoduck wrote:
bk1 wrote:
cmraider wrote:I applied to more than 200 jobs in 2010


This really doesn't seem like a lot.


It is a lot. For example, were he collecting unemployment, he would be required to have three job search actions per week which include application submissions, interviews, and a few other things. He had 15 interviews over 52 weeks. (52*3)-15= 141 job application submissions that the government would have expected him to do were he on unemployment. He did 59 more than that or roughly 1.13 extra job applications per week with a total of 3.85 job searches per week. You think that finding 3.85 jobs per week that you actually qualify for is easy? At first you can easily beat that amount, but it gets hard after a while, especially if you are trying to stay in a field and not just take whatever shit job that won't even pay your rent.

monster.com

alumniguy
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Re: Another sign that ITE is almost over

Postby alumniguy » Wed Mar 30, 2011 3:32 pm

Kohinoor wrote:ITE is almost over re PPP. ITE is in full swing re your employment prospects.


ITE IS over for most firms re PPP (only the firms that have taken a serious hit to their business and likely won't recover aren't back to pre-ITE PPP). We're seeing $3mil+ PPP from several firms and a significant number of $2mil+ PPP - that wasn't the case even pre-ITE.

However, ITE re your employment prospects is completely accurate. If you ask me, ITE is going to be here for a very long time (there just isn't enough legal demand anymore and there are far too many big firms - especially with the spat of consolidation in the past 5-10 years - and they are all jockeying for the same business).




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