Objection wrote:I think you're seriously overestimating the % of t14 students who were able to land these jobs paying $160k ITE.
I also don't think it's fair to exclude getting into a good school as part the big law process. Though I have no data to back this up, I'd suspect that the odds of having your own successful law practice remains much steadier outside of the t14 than do the odds of landing big law as we have defined it. In other words, you basically need t14 to make big law money in big law; you don't to make it solo.
I would also wager a guess that at some point in the t100, the most likely path to seeing big law money would be through solo practice (though the odds would still be slim).
This is all a long way of saying that it is totally circumstantial.
You really think roughly 50% biglaw + A3 clerks is "seriously overstimating" for the T14?
My point about excluding it is because you know before you go to law school which schools you got into. Sure, if it was some variable that was unknown you could include it, but once you have your acceptances (or heck even your LSAT/GPA) you know what kind of school you are getting into and that changes the equation.
You need T14 (or T12 or T18 or T30 or whatever) to have a good shot at biglaw (which is the easiest path to initial 6 figure salaries)... which was I think you mean at "making biglaw money in biglaw."
You're probably right that once your school has poor biglaw chances you might actually have a better shot at 6 figures through your own firm, however that I think is highly dependent upon the individual more than anything else and the contacts an individual makes. You won't know those going into school and won't even know them enough in school to have a realistic estimation of your chances of success starting your own firm, it will only be with years of experience that you can tell whether you actually have a decent chance of success as failure is almost assured right out of law school. However, for biglaw, you can pretty much estimate your chances of it at the end of your 1L year once you have your grades (or a few months later once you've gone through OCI).