will there be a double dip/another round of mass layoffs Forum

[shmoo597]

I'm curious what people think about this.

I think the chances of a double dip, or at least a shitty economy for the next few years, is pretty high. I doubt this will result in another round of mass layoffs though because firms are aware (or at least should be aware) of the bad economic outlook, and have adjusted hiring accordingly. Less total jobs, but decent job security for the people who have them.

[legends159]

Bottom line: firms are businesses and will do whatever it takes to turn a profit. When corporations do layoffs people accept that as the nature of the beast. It should be No different at law firms

[Wavelet]

The economy was in tepid recovery mode for the past year or two; the DJI, for example, rebounded from less than 7,000 in 2008 to over 10,000 early this year. A lot of firms have adjusted their hiring on the assumption that this recovery will continue (or at least, that we won't slide back to 2008 levels).

But now that the stimulus money has long dried up, all the indicators show a stagnant economy: flat DJI, flat and persistently high unemployment rates, etc. Whether we will emerge from this stagnation with economic growth or another economic contraction (i.e., a double-dip) remains to be seen. Another dip would certainly lead to another round of layoffs (while it is true that summer class sizes have been reduced, firms are also seeing reduced voluntary attrition rates ITE).

Keep in mind that interest rates are already as low as they can go, and with the Republicans poised to take the House in November, don't expect any more big stimulus packages...

*Runs off to start a bankruptcy practice*

[Anonymous User]

If you really knew or had a good idea that the economy was going into a double-dip, you could make a fortune in the stock market right now. As long as the market holds up, then people who study this stuff think that there won't be a double-dip. The wisdom of the crowd is occasionally wrong, but it's usually right.

[Turtledove]

FWIW the consensus among economists seems to be that a double dip is unlikely but that we should expect many years of tepid recovery and persistently high unemployment before consumers and businesses can pay off the debts they accumulated during the boom. Translation for law students: Don't expect another round of mass layoffs but don't expect hiring to go back to anywhere near 2006 levels for many years.

[shmoo597]

FWIW the consensus among economists seems to be that a double dip is unlikely but that we should expect many years of tepid recovery and persistently high unemployment before consumers and businesses can pay off the debts they accumulated during the boom. Translation for law students: Don't expect another round of mass layoffs but don't expect hiring to go back to anywhere near 2006 levels for many years.

I think this is right...I just hope law firms are fully aware of the new situation and don't over-hire/are prepared for a bad economy for years on out.

At the same time, US companies are sitting on more cash then they ever have, ever, in their entire history. Lots of M&A should be a source of business in the upcoming years.

[MrKappus]

ITT: ppl w/ offers vote "no," ppl w/o them vote "yes." Hilarity ensues.

[ScaredWorkedBored]

This was a financial panic recession/depression. Those historically linger for quite a while. With a surging workforce population (HELLO GEN Y), it is quite possible things will suck greatly relative to a normal expansion ,let alone the boom economy, for years.

There's lots of scuttlebutt in New York that banks and related are going to purge headcount to maintain decent profitability. That should mostly land on the bankers though.

[Oban]

i expect more bailouts

[QandAphorism]

In China there is a "propaganda department," but elsewhere in the world the practice and institutions involved in "guiding" beliefs (especially in periods of crisis) are a bit more subtle. With that said, they all have a lot of work to do in order to correct what was broken by the last 10 years. We are still facing a few challenges on the road to "recovery" and a major one is people believing in our systems, generally speaking. You can't sustain any real economic growth if your main product continues to be bubble creation and creative speculation via new market devices. Sooner or later you have to create real value or innovation. Furthermore, even the most uneducated/unsophisticated citizen distrusts almost every major institution/system they have no choice but to be a part of. Has wallstreet, for example, inspired any confidence in the last, say, 20 years? All of our systems are still patently volitile, and will continue to be until (if?) there is a resurgence of confidence in our systems - the type of confidence that makes the (I hate this term but it's appropriate here) "working class" believe there is an american dream worth pursuing. Most people have to believe again that working for 30 years or so will eventually result in being able to retire with dignity. Who here believes that conception exists right now? (ask someone who's pension/retirement tied to MBS's dissapeared overnight) Anyways, I am nevertheless cautiously optimistic with regards to our economy. A full 25% of the homes purchased in the last quarter were distressed sales, so at least the mountain of REO's the banks/fannie/freddie are holding are being bought up. That's good. The fed has reassured investors they will continue to support a low rate environment so eventually (1-2 years) there will be an increased demand for new housing. This means building, which is also good. Ultimately I think one of the major elements in our restoring our economy to something carrying even a semblance of sustainability (hey, perception is reality) is correcting our housing market coupled with systemic assurances that there will NEVER be such wild speculation attached to one of the backbones of our economy as there have been for the past 10 years. (housing) But it's not just housing... we have to start building things again, period.

[buckilaw]

FWIW the consensus among economists seems to be that a double dip is unlikely but that we should expect many years of tepid recovery and persistently high unemployment before consumers and businesses can pay off the debts they accumulated during the boom. Translation for law students: Don't expect another round of mass layoffs but don't expect hiring to go back to anywhere near 2006 levels for many years.

I think this is right...I just hope law firms are fully aware of the new situation and don't over-hire/are prepared for a bad economy for years on out.

At the same time, US companies are sitting on more cash then they ever have, ever, in their entire history. Lots of M&A should be a source of business in the upcoming years.

I'm hoping that when Republicans win the House this November corporate America will infer that the chances of any left of center proposals to alter the status quo are more or less nill. Hopefully this will aleviate the "climate of uncertainty" they claim is negatively impacting economic outlook. Hopefully this will nudge them towards using their cash reserves to spend and eventually increase hiring.

This is admittedly wishful thinking. But what else can ya do?