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"It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:22 pm
by wiseowl
Judging from most of the threads here, 2010 OCI hasn't exactly turned out to be a shower of manna. Few CBs so far, some dings, and a LOT of silence.
But can we say that yet? I really believe that the 28-day offer window vs. 45+ in the past really changes the way firms approach this season. There truly is room now for 2 full cycles. And since the consensus seems to be that it's "sink or swim", or in another words, you have 15 CBs or you have 1, it seems even more likely. All these LR types can't take every offer - in fact, some can't take every CB.
I predict there will be a trickle-down, and that the last week of Sept/first week of Oct will have a full second round of CBs and offers.
Is this tinged with irrational hope? Perhaps. But I see that as being better than a Chicken Little approach tinged with irrational fear.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:29 pm
by addicted
interesting take... it will be nice if you end up being correct.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:34 pm
by Anonymous User
I suspect the most important factor will be the first offer. This year and last, many of the people with a pile of CBs got their first offer on September 1st, give or take a week (i.e. some came a bit before, some have yet to come). That first CB will expire sometime around September 29th, and I think it's fair to say that even with longer shelf life offers coming later in the season most people racking up CBs will have cut loose almost all CBs or Offers by October.
I've been on several CBs, and recruiting staff all talk about how the constant push up of OCI dates plus the 28 day rule have made their lives crazy in the short term.
The real open question is: Did firms make FEWER callbacks as a result of the 28 day rule than they would have with a 45 day rule? If they didn't, it's sort of irrelevant - it will make the process faster, but there's really no way it will open up later rounds. If employers only extended, say, 3/4 of the CBs they expected to require at the get go and used a waiting list for the rest, then maybe more will be coming.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:37 pm
by bwv812
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Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:45 pm
by Anonymous User
Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:46 pm
by Pablo Ramirez
Anonymous User wrote:Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Mommy & Granny LLP doesn't count.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:47 pm
by Anonymous User
bwv812 wrote:Anonymous User wrote:I suspect the most important factor will be the first offer. This year and last, many of the people with a pile of CBs got their first offer on September 1st, give or take a week (i.e. some came a bit before, some have yet to come). That first CB will expire sometime around September 29th, and I think it's fair to say that even with longer shelf life offers coming later in the season most people racking up CBs will have cut loose almost all CBs or Offers by October.
I've been on several CBs, and recruiting staff all talk about how the constant push up of OCI dates plus the 28 day rule have made their lives crazy in the short term.
The real open question is: Did firms make FEWER callbacks as a result of the 28 day rule than they would have with a 45 day rule? If they didn't, it's sort of irrelevant - it will make the process faster, but there's really no way it will open up later rounds. If employers only extended, say, 3/4 of the CBs they expected to require at the get go and used a waiting list for the rest, then maybe more will be coming.
What's the law-firm logic behind having two rounds? Knowing that if you don't get everyone you need in round one, you'll be able to get the kids that no other firms wanted in round 2?
Right. By the time the first-round offers expire, the kids who already got offers in the first round will have accepted and firms will just have to pick through what's left. It's better for the firm to do rolling admissions instead.
I was talking with a partner today and he said at his firm what they're doing is lengthening the CB -> response window in order to get more people through the CB process before starting to make offers. They didn't like that last year they missed out on qualified people at schools with late OCIs because they had given out all their offers early in the process.
He wasn't sure how the 28 day rule would affect things, though, other than that it would give firms some upper limit on how long they could string along a candidate under consideration.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 2:09 am
by Anonymous User
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Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 3:20 am
by Lawl Shcool
It is def a feast or famine situation right now. I agree with OP that some trickle down effect will occur. I would bet the first round would be all top grades + top school types, then the 2nd round would be all top school + good soft / interpersonal factor types.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:43 am
by Anonymous User
Pablo Ramirez wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Mommy & Granny LLP doesn't count.
Uh, this is at CLS, so I am not talking local shops.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:48 am
by awesomepossum
Anonymous User wrote:Pablo Ramirez wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Mommy & Granny LLP doesn't count.
Uh, this is at CLS, so I am not talking local shops.
If it's CLS you probably are talking local shops.
Don't most people at CLS want to stay in NYC?
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:55 am
by Anonymous User
awesomepossum wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Pablo Ramirez wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Mommy & Granny LLP doesn't count.
Uh, this is at CLS, so I am not talking local shops.
If it's CLS you probably are talking local shops.
Don't most people at CLS want to stay in NYC?
They want to stay in NYC, true, but the firms are all BIGLAW, with multiple offices. These aren't random, small insurance defense firms or something. That's what I thought the guy was implying.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:03 am
by awesomepossum
Anonymous User wrote:
They want to stay in NYC, true, but the firms are all BIGLAW, with multiple offices. These aren't random, small insurance defense firms or something. That's what I thought the guy was implying.
Hahaha......BIGLAW in caps?
I guess nobody wants to go to Wachtell. That tiny firm only has one office.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:13 am
by Anonymous User
awesomepossum wrote:Anonymous User wrote:
They want to stay in NYC, true, but the firms are all BIGLAW, with multiple offices. These aren't random, small insurance defense firms or something. That's what I thought the guy was implying.
Hahaha......BIGLAW in caps?
I guess nobody wants to go to Wachtell. That tiny firm only has one office.
XOXO influence with the caps.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:12 am
by Anonymous User
Some callback weeks (HLS for sure) are way later in the month, so I'm sure firms aren't going to give out all their offers at risk of locking out all HLS candidates/other schools with late flyout weeks. This means that if they don't love all their late options, the early options on the edge of being hired might get word later..?
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:16 am
by Anonymous User
Anonymous User wrote:awesomepossum wrote:Pablo Ramirez wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Kids at my school seemed to be doing fine getting CBs. All grade levels. Average was probably 4 or 5.
Uh, this is at CLS, so I am not talking local shops.
If it's CLS you probably are talking local shops.
Don't most people at CLS want to stay in NYC?
They want to stay in NYC, true, but the firms are all BIGLAW, with multiple offices. These aren't random, small insurance defense firms or something. That's what I thought the guy was implying.
Yeah, but the NYC CB rates are a lot better than other markets. At HLS, even people in the top 50% (and even top 1/3) who were not completely socially awkward are having trouble getting more than 3 (sometimes more than 1) CBs from non-NYC markets at OCI (even the Chicago or TX markets, not just DC), or even getting a response from a lot of firms. Even people with much lower grades were able to get 4-5 CBs from NYC firms. NYC is just a more lucrative market this year in terms of CBs; other markets are definitely rough/slow this year.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:29 am
by BruceWayne
Anonymous User wrote:Yeah, but the NYC CB rates are a lot better than other markets. At HLS, even people in the top 50% (and even top 1/3) who were not completely socially awkward are having trouble getting more than 3 (sometimes more than 1) CBs from non-NYC markets at OCI (even the Chicago or TX markets, not just DC), or even getting a response from a lot of firms. Even people with much lower grades were able to get 4-5 CBs from NYC firms. NYC is just a more lucrative market this year in terms of CBs; other markets are definitely rough/slow this year.
This is really unfortunate, as NYC is really a love it or hate it type of market. In addition, it's also the market where you are least likely to be able to build a long term career. Do you know what market comes closest to NYC in generating callbacks at HLS?
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:32 am
by miamiman
BruceWayne wrote:Anonymous User wrote:Yeah, but the NYC CB rates are a lot better than other markets. At HLS, even people in the top 50% (and even top 1/3) who were not completely socially awkward are having trouble getting more than 3 (sometimes more than 1) CBs from non-NYC markets at OCI (even the Chicago or TX markets, not just DC), or even getting a response from a lot of firms. Even people with much lower grades were able to get 4-5 CBs from NYC firms. NYC is just a more lucrative market this year in terms of CBs; other markets are definitely rough/slow this year.
This is really unfortunate, as NYC is really a love it or hate it type of market.
In addition, it's also the market where you are least likely to be able to build a long term career. Do you know what market comes closest to NYC in generating callbacks at HLS?
Are you just the hit parade for talking out of your ass? Do you want to substantiate that point with anything along the lines of ... I don't know... data? Or is it just your nature to make sweeping claims in the absence of anything to support them?
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 11:39 am
by lovelaw27
why Anonymous?
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 1:31 pm
by bwv812
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Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 5:15 pm
by Renzo
bwv812 wrote:
The leverage ratio of NYC offices/firms as compared to non-NYC offices/firms would seem to support BruceWayne.
And since Big firms put associates they no longer need into gas chambers, it's clear that none of them have careers beyond the firm the start out with.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 5:29 pm
by bwv812
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Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 6:04 pm
by Renzo
bwv812 wrote:Renzo wrote:bwv812 wrote:
The leverage ratio of NYC offices/firms as compared to non-NYC offices/firms would seem to support BruceWayne.
And since Big firms put associates they no longer need into gas chambers, it's clear that none of them have careers beyond the firm the start out with.
You are unlikely to have a future at the firm, that's for sure. You may have in-house opportunities and the like, but will they be in NYC? I don't know. And you're arguably a poorly-trained commodity as a mid-level at a highly leveraged NY office, in comparison to a mid-level from a less-highly leveraged firm where you didn't do two years of doc review or due diligence.
This is silly. Where do you think all those thousands of NY biglaw lawyers are going? Do they just jump into the sea? Give up, move to Nebraska and do divorces & DUIs?
The standard career path for a Biglaw associate is to do one of three things-- go in-house, go into government, or lateral to a less prestigious firm where they'll be a partner candidate. Leverage ratios at firms are not completely meaningless, but they are as an indicator of the impact a firm will have on your future career prospects.
Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 6:16 pm
by bwv812
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Re: "It's a bloodbath" vs. "It's a different hiring environment"
Posted: Fri Sep 03, 2010 6:42 pm
by BruceWayne
miamiman wrote:
Are you just the hit parade for talking out of your ass? Do you want to substantiate that point with anything along the lines of ... I don't know... data? Or is it just your nature to make sweeping claims in the absence of anything to support them?
LOL it's pretty common knowledge pal (and just so you know that's Camron, he's a NYC homie so he probably knows it too)
When you look at the leverage ratios at the big NYC firms it's pretty obvious (especially in conjunction with the well known up or out policies of these firms) that your chances of building a long term career out of a spot at say, Skadden NYC is pretty slim. On top of that the sort of work that you generally end up doing as an associate at a big NYC firm (at least in your first few years) isn't going to be all that substantive and hands on. I don't know if you realized this, but most people who start out as associates at the big NYC firms don't last very long. Often they have to move out into non law jobs or into house positions. NYC is basically the toughest market for someone who is looking to actually make firm work a long term career move because so many firms there follow the "hire a ton of associates, work them hard for a few years and get rid of them" model. Basically that bwv812 said was what I was talking about when I made the post, and he's dead on.