Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

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FMajor
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Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby FMajor » Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:48 pm

Paul Krugman says we're headed for a double dip recession or a depression. Which legal sector can best ride out another (bigger?) economic downturn?

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vamedic03
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby vamedic03 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:04 pm

FMajor wrote:Paul Krugman says we're headed for a double dip recession or a depression. Which legal sector can best ride out another (bigger?) economic downturn?



You can worry about this, or you can focus on the growth in hiring for banking... I'll put my money on the i-bankers being right over Krugman.

09042014
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby 09042014 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:11 pm

vamedic03 wrote:
FMajor wrote:Paul Krugman says we're headed for a double dip recession or a depression. Which legal sector can best ride out another (bigger?) economic downturn?



You can worry about this, or you can focus on the growth in hiring for banking... I'll put my money on the i-bankers being right over Krugman.


Yea those I bankers nailed the first recession.

ScaredWorkedBored
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby ScaredWorkedBored » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:12 pm

5/5 investment banks and most of the money centers that had investment banks either blew themselves up or would have without government intervention.

Unconvinced of ibanker intelligence.

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hi_im_josh
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby hi_im_josh » Tue Jun 29, 2010 1:13 pm

the sector where you're working for the federal govt.

Posner
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby Posner » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:00 pm

Paul Krugman is a leftist jackass. He skews examples, analogies and data to ram his leftist ideology down the throats of his readers. It's generally safe to ignore his opinion.

There may be a double-dip recession, but I wouldn't read Paul Krugman with the hopes of learning why it may occur or the chances of its occurrence.

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vamedic03
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby vamedic03 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:07 pm

ScaredWorkedBored wrote:5/5 investment banks and most of the money centers that had investment banks either blew themselves up or would have without government intervention.

Unconvinced of ibanker intelligence.


Who has the more reliable incentives? The i-bankers who have a high likelihood of getting screwed if they miss again anytime soon or Paul Krugman who needs to sell NY Times Articles and books?

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98234872348
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby 98234872348 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:09 pm

A link to some sort of article or quotation would have been helpful.

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bilbobaggins
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby bilbobaggins » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:14 pm

There is a giant consumer debt wave that will break eventually much like the housing debt wave did. It doesn't take Krugman or "ibankers" to figure this out.

09042014
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby 09042014 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:16 pm

bilbobaggins wrote:There is a giant consumer debt wave that will break eventually much like the housing debt wave did. It doesn't take Krugman or "ibankers" to figure this out.


Is it as highly leveraged as housing debt was? That is what made that debt toxic.

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holydonkey
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby holydonkey » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:17 pm

mistergoft wrote:A link to some sort of article or quotation would have been helpful.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opini ... an.html?hp

sumus romani
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby sumus romani » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:20 pm

Posner wrote:Paul Krugman is a leftist jackass. He skews examples, analogies and data to ram his leftist ideology down the throats of his readers. It's generally safe to ignore his opinion.

There may be a double-dip recession, but I wouldn't read Paul Krugman with the hopes of learning why it may occur or the chances of its occurrence.



Krugman is indeed a leftist hack outside economics (just look at his columns during the waning months of the Bush admin.). But, within economics he is really good. And no one can deny that his calling of the housing bubble a long time before anyone else is a feather in his cap and one of the reasons for his nobel. He has been right about the size of the recession all along, while the white house radically underestimated it. He called for a bigger stimulus in order to avoid depression back in November of 08, and he was right--just look around.
Last edited by sumus romani on Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

nycparalegal
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby nycparalegal » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:20 pm

It's not just Krugman that thinks we are in a double dip recession. Robert Shiller also think we are heading into a long Depression.

Hey-O
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby Hey-O » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:26 pm

bilbobaggins wrote:There is a giant consumer debt wave that will break eventually much like the housing debt wave did. It doesn't take Krugman or "ibankers" to figure this out.



I don't think there is a consumer debt wave coming. Just that the housing debt and existing consumer debt are slowing down consumption. I don't think we're going to necessarily have a depression, but I do think we're going to have some more tough years while all the people who spent years making bad decisions are digging themselves out.

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OGR3
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby OGR3 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:29 pm

I'll take the Nobel Prize in Economics winner over Gordon Gecko any day.

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bilbobaggins
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby bilbobaggins » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:32 pm

OGR3 wrote:I'll take the Nobel Prize in Economics winner over Gordon Gecko any day.


BUT HE'S A LEFTIST.

In all seriousness, though, a leftist is Fidel Castro. Krugman is a centrist liberal.

Hey-O
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby Hey-O » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:32 pm

Nightrunner wrote:I think the over-leveraging of consumer debt is not yet real, but could become real if the most sizable investment the vast majority of Americans own (i.e. real estate) plummets in value. If that happens, it might be best to know how to hunt and farm.


This is just silly fear mongering. Even if real estate falls the US has too much internal infrastructure to cause a complete collapse back to a hunting/agrarian society.

And if that does happen, you won't be hunting animals, but people, because we don't have enough land or resources to supporting the majority of people in a rural lifestyle. I mean, where would all this hunting and farming take place?

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rayiner
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby rayiner » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:36 pm

vamedic03 wrote:
ScaredWorkedBored wrote:5/5 investment banks and most of the money centers that had investment banks either blew themselves up or would have without government intervention.

Unconvinced of ibanker intelligence.


Who has the more reliable incentives? The i-bankers who have a high likelihood of getting screwed if they miss again anytime soon or Paul Krugman who needs to sell NY Times Articles and books?


LOL wut.

Hey-O
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby Hey-O » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:37 pm

Nightrunner wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Nightrunner wrote:I think the over-leveraging of consumer debt is not yet real, but could become real if the most sizable investment the vast majority of Americans own (i.e. real estate) plummets in value. If that happens, it might be best to know how to hunt and farm.


This is just silly fear mongering. Even if real estate falls the US has too much internal infrastructure to cause a complete collapse back to a hunting/agrarian society.

And if that does happen, you won't be hunting animals, but people, because we don't have enough land or resources to supporting the majority of people in a rural lifestyle. I mean, where would all this hunting and farming take place?

The last part was a joke, Capt. Serious.


:oops: In my defense this hunting, fishing coming apocalypse argument is one i have had many times with my conservative family.

09042014
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby 09042014 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:39 pm

I plan on Spearing fish with NR's tribe like Dances with Wolves.

FMajor
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby FMajor » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:43 pm

So consensus is? I-banking, mergers/acquisitions, government, regulatory, and clerkship or small- to mid-law in flyover states with enough land to hunt and gather? May need to rethink the game plan.

Cogburn87
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby Cogburn87 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:45 pm

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Last edited by Cogburn87 on Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

sumus romani
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby sumus romani » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:48 pm

Cogburn87 wrote:
bilbobaggins wrote:
OGR3 wrote:I'll take the Nobel Prize in Economics winner over Gordon Gecko any day.


BUT HE'S A LEFTIST.

In all seriousness, though, a leftist is Fidel Castro. Krugman is a centrist liberal.


His prize was awarded for his work in international trade. His view on macroeconomics is decidedly outside the mainstream.

Also, he self-identfies as a progressive, which is hardly a label indicative of centrist views.



These nobels are often officially awarded for work done decades before the award. And I don't mean to slight Krugman's earlier work. But isn't the consensus that to a large extent his award was political--was given for his NY Times columns on the US economy. Well, my economist friend thinks so anyway.

thisguy456
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby thisguy456 » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:49 pm

Posner wrote:Paul Krugman is a leftist jackass. He skews examples, analogies and data to ram his leftist ideology down the throats of his readers. It's generally safe to ignore his opinion.

There may be a double-dip recession, but I wouldn't read Paul Krugman with the hopes of learning why it may occur or the chances of its occurrence.


Yeah, I hate it when people skew things like that to ram certain ideologies down the throats of readers. And I do generally ignore their opinions.

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truffleshuffle
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Re: Predict jobs in a double dip recession...or worse

Postby truffleshuffle » Tue Jun 29, 2010 4:51 pm

Hey-O wrote:
Nightrunner wrote:
Hey-O wrote:
Nightrunner wrote:I think the over-leveraging of consumer debt is not yet real, but could become real if the most sizable investment the vast majority of Americans own (i.e. real estate) plummets in value. If that happens, it might be best to know how to hunt and farm.


This is just silly fear mongering. Even if real estate falls the US has too much internal infrastructure to cause a complete collapse back to a hunting/agrarian society.

And if that does happen, you won't be hunting animals, but people, because we don't have enough land or resources to supporting the majority of people in a rural lifestyle. I mean, where would all this hunting and farming take place?

The last part was a joke, Capt. Serious.


:oops: In my defense this hunting, fishing coming apocalypse argument is one i have had many times with my conservative family.


Same here, but I actually grew up a farm. My uncle likes to joke about revolting: "You have Waco, Ruby Ridge, and (our farm's name) FARM!"




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