NYAssociate wrote:This information is useless for everyone below a mid-level associate at a big firm (including 0Ls here). There are plenty of juniors around to do junior work, so summer classes won't enlarge anytime soon. Low-level litigation work is being farmed out to Indians in Hyderabad, and that'll stunt any potential growth that could arise from the BP (and other oil-related stuff, like Schlumbarger), Goldman Sachs, and the ensuing shareholder and SEC suits against other major financial firms. Even if that did give rise to great growth, it'll only go to a handful of firms (major NYC players for the financial stuff; top-lit shops for the oil stuff). On the M&A side, dealwork will go only to the major NYC players (with some regionality in preferences, though I was quite surprised to see UAL and Continental go for Cravath and Jones Day respectively).
There's probably going to be a private equity boom from the euro-debt crisis, but again only two to three firms will benefit from that. That too, I think the boom will be in mid-market, as the size of the funds we're dealing with is not nearly as large as they were two years ago (so, IMO, Simpson Thacher might not experience the brunt of this uptick, though my sources there tell me things are extremely busy... having institutional clients like KKR and Blackstone helps a lot, apparently).
I'm getting rather sick of threads like these. The slightest blip on the news-radar and you have 0Ls and 1Ls and now 2Ls going crazy and doing arm-chair analysis. I'd rather people post their GPA, school, and ask for bidding advice. I'd love to give specific recommendations.
I agree this only relates to current mid-levels and above. I am a mid-level and getting multiple calls a week (not like it was when I first started, but the lateral market is heating up). The economy does not need to recover for a new M&A boom to happen. There are three key structural factors that will lead a boom regardless of the economy (so long as we aren't in dire straits like the week of the Lehman/AIG collapses).
First, companies are sitting on a ton of cash. As cash reserves accumulate, companies are stuck in very low yielding instruments. As CFOs become more confident regarding the cash position of companies, more strategic deals for cash will happen (I'm seeing a big pickup in these in the past 6 months with respect to our large cap clients).
Second, PE funds are also sitting on a treasure trove of cash and they are itching to do deals again. In time, financing will free up as fixed income investors and banks start chasing more yield and it will be easier to get deals done. I've provided ancillary work on a couple of PE fund deals in the past few months, and each time that giant commitment letters have come across before signing, I have been shocked. Money's loosening up again, notwithstanding the economic conditions.
Third, PE funds have limited lives. If something is XYZ PE Fund V, that Fund is only set to be in existence for say 10 years. Soon, the PE funds that were on the front end of the last M&A boom are going to start going into liquidation, barring waivers from the limited partners (some will want to stay in to avoid selling low, but others will demand their money back, which will force some sales).
My firm is busy as hell right now and it looks like everyone is going to have a shitty summer. Unfortunately, the juniors have significantly less training than I got as a junior because the dealflow was so crappy and the mid-levels and seniors are in serious demand internally right now. But I wouldn't get excited if I were a 2L or 1L, maybe it will stay really busy until OCI 2011 and the 0Ls will be in heavy demand by then, but with the sea change in the litigation model, I don't know that biglaw class sizes will ever get back to the highs that we saw in the last bubble.