How bad are things...really?

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creamedcats
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby creamedcats » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:25 am

drdolittle wrote:
Fark-o-vision wrote:
drdolittle wrote:Well, then my apologies for giving you the normal TLS response (which evidently you were aware of). Just trying to help since your original posts gave me the impression that you're over-thinking something we all are pretty clueless about, frankly.


Couldn't agree more. Nice.

Sorry, but I'm the type who feels (even though I know better) that there must be an answer. That there really isn't an answer in this situation makes me, from time to time, uncomfortable. However, I did learn something really valuable in this thread, so that makes it minimally successful.

I didn't mean to minimize your contribution, only to suggest that I'd done the minimum (if nothing more) leg work.


I definitely had (and have) the same underlying concerns. I've also tried looking at the hiring stats, reading TLS, writing current students, etc., to get a clear answer and failed. So I'm resigned to make a decision based on ranking, which is beginning to make better sense as I read more of TLS.


I'm taking a chance by attending a school that, in the best of times, only placed about 12-15% in BigLaw jobs. I have the 'TLS requirements' for attending a T2: Scholarship, ties to the market the school is in, no dominant T14 school overshadowing the school in its home market, and I'm still worried. I don't even necessarily want to work in BigLaw again (I've worked in it as a paralegal for 2 years already), but having the option (in that market, or elsewhere) would be nice.

The legal market is known for being resilient, but this is a fairly unprecedented glut of new lawyers, coming out of schools that are spending endlessly to try and improve themselves and gain prestige. I have trouble believing that things will remain as bad as they are now, but I also do not believe there will be a return to 2004-2007 days of huge recruiting classes. And I echo all the previously mentioned 'you can't take statistics at face value' comments - I take that as a given at this point, thank you TLS.

Another point worth mentioning (and probably deserving of an entire thread) is the growing market abroad for graduates of American law schools. I'm thinking of East Asia, specifically. You will often not get paid market out of the gate, but I have known several fresh graduates who went straight to work abroad and are doing very well. Firms are still growing their offices and there are many offices of large firms here that have been busy to the point of being understaffed 24/7 since 2004. The recession was like a violent convulsion here, with tons of firings and hiring freezes, but it only lasted a few months. Many people went right back to work afterwards. Secondly, there's such a lack of ready-to-work talent that firms are rabidly protective of their young local associates and often forced to bring in skilled associates who have no connection with Asia at all just to keep the lights on. In terms of this market, I do not see that changing drastically. The problem is, it's a small, mostly self-selecting group, and the vast majority of fresh graduates aren't too excited about tromping off to Hong Kong, Shanghai, or Vietnam right after graduation. Additionally, and more personally, markets abroad tend to have an 'elite' feeling to them and non-T14 graduates, even ones who get offers, are often shut out of international offices. One lawyer told me I should "mortgage my entire life" if it meant going to a T20 school, because that was the only way I'd ever get back to Asia as a market-rate US associate.

Anyway, tl;dr, the economy in the US is almost as bad as the doomsayers claim and there are too many damn lawyers with outsized expectations, but the legal job market is expanding to other places, too.

Fark-o-vision
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby Fark-o-vision » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:40 am

This "too many graduates" number is what bothers me the most. I feel like, in SoCal alone, I can discount La Verne, University of california Southern, Whittier, Pheonix, 1/3 of Southwestern, 1/4 of San Diego, Pepperdine, Loyola, et. al. A couple thousand in this state alone. Aside from internet anecdote, what evidence is there that jobs are short for reputable graduates?

Also, I would not consider the bottom 1/10 of any school reputable. That earns another, what, fifty spots in Cali alone? Take out the Golden Gate, University of San Francisco grad's and 1/5 of Hastings and Davis and things look less competitive.

Am I missing something?

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bk1
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby bk1 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 4:04 am

Fark-o-vision wrote:This "too many graduates" number is what bothers me the most. I feel like, in SoCal alone, I can discount La Verne, University of california Southern, Whittier, Pheonix, 1/3 of Southwestern, 1/4 of San Diego, Pepperdine, Loyola, et. al. A couple thousand in this state alone. Aside from internet anecdote, what evidence is there that jobs are short for reputable graduates?

Also, I would not consider the bottom 1/10 of any school reputable. That earns another, what, fifty spots in Cali alone? Take out the Golden Gate, University of San Francisco grad's and 1/5 of Hastings and Davis and things look less competitive.

Am I missing something?


You ask about evidence for a shortness of jobs for "reputable graduates." What does this mean? If a law firm has an open spot, are they just not going to hire anybody because all the "reputable graduates" are gone? It seems like they are going to hire the best possible person they can to fill the spot, whether that person is bottom 1/4 at USC or bottom 1/4 at Loyola. I doubt they are going to say to themselves, "well the top 90% of every law school already has a job, I guess we're just not going to hire someone for this position."

This basically hinges on what you mean by "reputable." Jobs are technically never short for "reputable graduates," but the problem is that the definition of "reputable" shifts over time if it is hiring that determines the definition of "reputable." When the market is booming it could mean anybody with a JD, when the economy tanks hard it could mean only those on law review in the T14 (hyperbolic but you get my point).

What is "reputable?" Is it those who get hired by biglaw and/or get prestigious clerkships? If so, then it changes in relation to the economy as I noted above. Is it some fixed percentage of each law school based on their ranking? That would be hard argument to make and I doubt one could provide reasons for this justification that would stand up to scrutiny (it would also be hard to determine how to choose which percentage, and if it was based off firm hiring at any given point in time then it is merely using the economy as a measure without allowing for flexibility in regards to the shifting market). Is it based on their ability as lawyers? If so, then class rank is not necessarily the greatest measure of this and it would be hard to pin down exactly how much of each school has people who start out like this prior to taking a job, if they actually have it at all before they enter the field.

Your definition of "reputable graduates" seems arbitrary and truly hard to use as justification for that argument.

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thesealocust
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby thesealocust » Wed Jun 02, 2010 7:21 am

edit: n/m
Last edited by thesealocust on Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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romothesavior
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby romothesavior » Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:40 am

drdolittle wrote:There are probably thousands of posts on TLS asking basically this question. The consensus seems to be that the safest thing is to go to the substantially highest ranked school you get into, even if costs significantly more. In the long run, it'll be worth it. I'm hoping it will be...



Actually, I can't think of an area where TLS has LESS consensus. The issues of higher ranking vs. Less debt is a question that is split almost 50/50 on here.

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pjo
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby pjo » Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:14 am

romothesavior wrote:
drdolittle wrote:There are probably thousands of posts on TLS asking basically this question. The consensus seems to be that the safest thing is to go to the substantially highest ranked school you get into, even if costs significantly more. In the long run, it'll be worth it. I'm hoping it will be...



Actually, I can't think of an area where TLS has LESS consensus. The issues of higher ranking vs. Less debt is a question that is split almost 50/50 on here.

Lol romothesavior, you beat me to it. I was wondering when the concensus changed? Bc I can’t even remember the last time someone on here argued going to American or another mid/low T1 at sticker vs. a T2 w/scholly and a regional niche.

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HazelEyes
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby HazelEyes » Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:16 am

romothesavior wrote:Also, a lot of students are having to take biglaw hours for 40-50k. Does that sound appealing to you?


Considering the fact that many of us are making that now before entering law school... That's exactly what i'm scared of. 30-50K ain't that much to live off without 200K in loans. Can't imagine how it't posisble with the loans.

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bk1
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby bk1 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:26 am

pjo wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
drdolittle wrote:There are probably thousands of posts on TLS asking basically this question. The consensus seems to be that the safest thing is to go to the substantially highest ranked school you get into, even if costs significantly more. In the long run, it'll be worth it. I'm hoping it will be...



Actually, I can't think of an area where TLS has LESS consensus. The issues of higher ranking vs. Less debt is a question that is split almost 50/50 on here.

Lol romothesavior, you beat me to it. I was wondering when the concensus changed? Bc I can’t even remember the last time someone on here argued going to American or another mid/low T1 at sticker vs. a T2 w/scholly and a regional niche.


That isn't a fair comparison. Most of TLS will argue that you should not attend a school at sticker that is ranked behind a large number of others in its market (i.e. American is behind the T14, GW, W&M, etc in DC) whereas going to a school that is the only school in state (i.e. UNLV) is stronger.

Where people on TLS are divided is something along the lines of WUSTL/Fordham/GW/etc 1/2-full scholly versus various T14's. Or things like Fordham/UIUC/Hastings/etc at sticker versus St. John's/Brooklyn/Chicago-Kent/Santa Clara/etc on a full ride.

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pjo
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby pjo » Wed Jun 02, 2010 10:36 am

bk1 wrote:
pjo wrote:
romothesavior wrote:
drdolittle wrote:There are probably thousands of posts on TLS asking basically this question. The consensus seems to be that the safest thing is to go to the substantially highest ranked school you get into, even if costs significantly more. In the long run, it'll be worth it. I'm hoping it will be...



Actually, I can't think of an area where TLS has LESS consensus. The issues of higher ranking vs. Less debt is a question that is split almost 50/50 on here.

Lol romothesavior, you beat me to it. I was wondering when the concensus changed? Bc I can’t even remember the last time someone on here argued going to American or another mid/low T1 at sticker vs. a T2 w/scholly and a regional niche.


That isn't a fair comparison. Most of TLS will argue that you should not attend a school at sticker that is ranked behind a large number of others in its market (i.e. American is behind the T14, GW, W&M, etc in DC) whereas going to a school that is the only school in state (i.e. UNLV) is stronger.

Where people on TLS are divided is something along the lines of WUSTL/Fordham/GW/etc 1/2-full scholly versus various T14's. Or things Fordham/UIUC/Hastings/etc at sticker versus St. John's/Brooklyn/Chicago-Kent/Santa Clara/etc on a full ride.


If thats what dr.dolittle was referring to in his comment then yea I’ll grant that. I guess the comment was somewhat vague in that it was left to open interpretation. However, I would still argue that most ppl on TLS would support taking a full-ride to say GMU rather than pay sticker at GW.

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Grizz
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby Grizz » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:39 am

thesealocust wrote:Also, I really don't know what Locke N. Lawded's deal is. Joined the other day to make fun of that Boston attorney, and posts things that just don't make any sense at all. Not wrong arguments, arguments that don't even resolve.


I'm pretty sure he's got a scamblog

http://shillingmesoftly.blogspot.com/

d34d9823
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby d34d9823 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:42 am

rad law wrote:
thesealocust wrote:Also, I really don't know what Locke N. Lawded's deal is. Joined the other day to make fun of that Boston attorney, and posts things that just don't make any sense at all. Not wrong arguments, arguments that don't even resolve.


I'm pretty sure he's got a scamblog

[CENSORED]

FTFY

miamiman
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby miamiman » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:48 am

To be honest, what puzzles me most is identifying what the endgame is for the scamblog guys -- public service announcement, mutiny? Do they have nothing better to do? I'm not necessarily singling out Locked and Lawded; maybe he's just a nice guy but like all the JDU peeps, Third Tier Reality, Small Law Large Debt, etc. Like what's the point? Do 0Ls really have no fucking clue how bad shit is?

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bk1
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby bk1 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:54 am

miamiman wrote:To be honest, what puzzles me most is identifying what the endgame is for the scamblog guys -- public service announcement, mutiny? Do they have nothing better to do? I'm not necessarily singling out Locked and Lawded; maybe he's just a nice guy but like all the JDU peeps, Third Tier Reality, Small Law Large Debt, etc. Like what's the point? Do 0Ls really have no fucking clue how bad shit is?


To vent? And yes?

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SaintClarence27
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby SaintClarence27 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:55 am

miamiman wrote:To be honest, what puzzles me most is identifying what the endgame is for the scamblog guys -- public service announcement, mutiny? Do they have nothing better to do? I'm not necessarily singling out Locked and Lawded; maybe he's just a nice guy but like all the JDU peeps, Third Tier Reality, Small Law Large Debt, etc. Like what's the point? Do 0Ls really have no fucking clue how bad shit is?


I think for a lot of them it's screaming out against unjustice (rightly or wrongly). It would be like posting on a blog (or writing a bad review) about how the $1 eggroll that you ordered and paid for was rotten, and the Chinese place wouldn't give you a refund or a new one. Only multiply that by 100,000. There's really nothing you can ACTUALLY do to correct the perceived injustice. And since an information asymmetry (or arguably statistical malfeasance) was what allowed the injustice to take place, they try and correct the information asymmetry.

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stintez
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby stintez » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:58 am

romothesavior wrote:
James Bond wrote:Shitty economy with slower hiring is real. The fact that people get waaaaaay too worked up and overly pessimistic about it is real too. Also, the level of annoyance these "economy threads" bring is quite real as well.


+1 to all of this. There are tons of threads dealing with this. Read them.

Obviously things will vary from school to school and from market to market. I'd talk to some students at your potential school, talk to their career services office, look at the statistics (not the ones the school provide), talk to some lawyers in the area in the field you want to go into, read Above the Law, etc.

+1000000

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quishiclocus
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby quishiclocus » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:59 am

I am becoming progressively more convinced that 0Ls and current law students and JDs don't get how bad the rest of the economy is. Yes, it sucks for lawyers. It also sucks for accountants, teachers, just about every industry around except for health care and even parts of that aren't as good as they ought to be. People all over the place are graduating with tons of debt and no jobs. It's not that things aren't that bad for lawyers, it's just that it's not the sign of some kind of legal apocalypse. Going into any field in the middle of a major recession and expecting to graduate and make tons of money easily is dumb. Some people are still doing quite well, but you're not going to get any guarantees in anything right now.

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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby Anonymous User » Wed Jun 02, 2010 12:05 pm

quishiclocus wrote:I am becoming progressively more convinced that 0Ls and current law students and JDs don't get how bad the rest of the economy is. Yes, it sucks for lawyers. It also sucks for accountants, teachers, just about every industry around except for health care and even parts of that aren't as good as they ought to be. People all over the place are graduating with tons of debt and no jobs. It's not that things aren't that bad for lawyers, it's just that it's not the sign of some kind of legal apocalypse. Going into any field in the middle of a major recession and expecting to graduate and make tons of money easily is dumb. Some people are still doing quite well, but you're not going to get any guarantees in anything right now.


Why would 0Ls be uninformed about the current market for other occupations? I think that many (I hesitate to say most, but that may indeed be accurate) of the current 0Ls have been IN the other markets prior to applying to law school. I'm one example.

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drdolittle
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby drdolittle » Wed Jun 02, 2010 2:53 pm

pjo wrote:
bk1 wrote:
pjo wrote:
romothesavior wrote:Actually, I can't think of an area where TLS has LESS consensus. The issues of higher ranking vs. Less debt is a question that is split almost 50/50 on here.

Lol romothesavior, you beat me to it. I was wondering when the concensus changed? Bc I can’t even remember the last time someone on here argued going to American or another mid/low T1 at sticker vs. a T2 w/scholly and a regional niche.


That isn't a fair comparison. Most of TLS will argue that you should not attend a school at sticker that is ranked behind a large number of others in its market (i.e. American is behind the T14, GW, W&M, etc in DC) whereas going to a school that is the only school in state (i.e. UNLV) is stronger.

Where people on TLS are divided is something along the lines of WUSTL/Fordham/GW/etc 1/2-full scholly versus various T14's. Or things Fordham/UIUC/Hastings/etc at sticker versus St. John's/Brooklyn/Chicago-Kent/Santa Clara/etc on a full ride.


If thats what dr.dolittle was referring to in his comment then yea I’ll grant that. I guess the comment was somewhat vague in that it was left to open interpretation. However, I would still argue that most ppl on TLS would support taking a full-ride to say GMU rather than pay sticker at GW.


Fair enough. Should have been clearer. But yeah, as bk1 suggests, I was thinking of OPs original scenario where I believe the comparison was full ride at LMU vs. UCLA at sticker. Given all the uncertainties, like GPA reqs to keep the money, job prospects, economy, long-term value of degree, value of time invested, etc., the safest choice seems to be UCLA in this case. Or NW at sticker vs. UIUC full ride, I think NW is the odds on better choice, even though UIUC is a t25. But if the situation were WUSL full ride vs. Davis/Hastings sticker, WUSL could be the better option, especially if working in CA is not an immediate priority.

I guess the right word isn't "consensus," because there's often no consensus on anything on TLS, but this is what I'd decide based on the best info out there. On the other hand, I'm a 0L...

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SaintClarence27
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby SaintClarence27 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:01 pm

Anonymous User wrote:
quishiclocus wrote:I am becoming progressively more convinced that 0Ls and current law students and JDs don't get how bad the rest of the economy is. Yes, it sucks for lawyers. It also sucks for accountants, teachers, just about every industry around except for health care and even parts of that aren't as good as they ought to be. People all over the place are graduating with tons of debt and no jobs. It's not that things aren't that bad for lawyers, it's just that it's not the sign of some kind of legal apocalypse. Going into any field in the middle of a major recession and expecting to graduate and make tons of money easily is dumb. Some people are still doing quite well, but you're not going to get any guarantees in anything right now.


Why would 0Ls be uninformed about the current market for other occupations? I think that many (I hesitate to say most, but that may indeed be accurate) of the current 0Ls have been IN the other markets prior to applying to law school. I'm one example.


Sorry, this was me writing. I must've accidentally hit the "anonymous user" quote button.

09042014
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby 09042014 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:04 pm

drdolittle wrote:
Fair enough. Should have been clearer. But yeah, as bk1 suggests, I was thinking of OPs original scenario where I believe the comparison was full ride at LMU vs. UCLA at sticker. Given all the uncertainties, like GPA reqs to keep the money, job prospects, economy, long-term value of degree, value of time invested, etc., the safest choice seems to be UCLA in this case. Or NW at sticker vs. UIUC full ride, I think NW is the odds on better choice, even though UIUC is a t25. But if the situation were WUSL full ride vs. Davis/Hastings sticker, WUSL could be the better option, especially if working in CA is not an immediate priority.

I guess the right word isn't "consensus," because there's often no consensus on anything on TLS, but this is what I'd decide based on the best info out there. On the other hand, I'm a 0L...


It's a fundamental choice between high risk/high reward and low risk/low reward. 220K for a 50% shot at big law at NW, or a 60K for a 10% at UIUC? There is no right choice, it depends on the persons goals, place in live, and willing to put it all on black.

I personally can have a career that pays what shit law pays working 45K a year, so I'm not going to take UIUC for free. I want big law, its why I am going to law school. So I'd take NW.

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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby miamiman » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:12 pm

DF, as much as I like you, we both know what you just said is misleading. The average nu student has a 1 in 2 shot at biglaw; bsee degree in hand, your odds are far higher. Id venture to say - as I have before - that you're damn near big law SECURE so long as you don't fuck it all up on models and bottles.

For the average, nonengineer applicant the calculus becomes trickier.

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thesealocust
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby thesealocust » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:13 pm

edit: n/m
Last edited by thesealocust on Sun Jun 27, 2010 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

09042014
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby 09042014 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:16 pm

miamiman wrote:DF, as much as I like you, we both know what you just said is misleading. The average nu student has a 1 in 2 shot at biglaw; bsee degree in hand, your odds are far higher. Id venture to say - as I have before - that you're damn near big law SECURE so long as you don't fuck it all up on models and bottles.

For the average, nonengineer applicant the calculus becomes trickier.


But my chances at UIUC are a lot better than 10% too. I probably would have taken a full ride at UIUC. But I wasn't going to get one. Maybe 15-20K per year. Leaving with over 100K in debt still.

I'm talking about no engineering background, its a risk vs reward analysis. No right or wrong answer.

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D Brooks
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby D Brooks » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:24 pm

You think things are bad now?

Wait until the Korean peninsula explodes, Germany's unnecessary austerity measures send Europe back into recession, and Israel attacks Iran after the UN sanctions don't work.

Class of 2013 will be more fucked than anyone.

09042014
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Re: How bad are things...really?

Postby 09042014 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:25 pm

D Brooks wrote:You think things are bad now?

Wait until the Korean peninsula explodes, Germany's unnecessary austerity measures reduce European consumption and send Europe back into recession, and Israel attacks Iran after the UN sanctions don't work.

Class of 2013 will be more fucked than anyone.


War is good for the economy. Maybe we can get all the younglings 0L's drafted. Leaving the jobs for the olds.




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