Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

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Scurredsitless1
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Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Scurredsitless1 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:23 am

Now that acceptances and rejections are coming out, are you seeing people getting rejected that would have been accepted in previous years?

tram988
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby tram988 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:24 am

Fordham seems a bit more difficult so far.

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Aeon
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Aeon » Sun Dec 13, 2009 11:30 am

I think it's a bit too early to tell. From various threads here on TLS and statements by law school admissions deans, it sounds like applications so far this cycle are up quite a bit from last year, but it's still not known whether this trend will continue through the end of the cycle. Going by that, I'm sure that schools are a bit more cautious at this point about accepting and rejecting applicants than before, because they don't know exactly what to expect.

In any case, it's difficult to judge this cycle at this point, in my opinion, for many schools haven't started sending out rejections yet.

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Gamecubesupreme
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Gamecubesupreme » Sun Dec 13, 2009 2:24 pm

Definitely.

This is why I'm making the TTT my dream schools.

jbrowning82
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby jbrowning82 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 2:43 pm

tram988 wrote:Fordham seems a bit more difficult so far.


fuckin a! waitlisted...

Burger in a can
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:46 pm

Aeon wrote:I think it's a bit too early to tell. From various threads here on TLS and statements by law school admissions deans, it sounds like applications so far this cycle are up quite a bit from last year, but it's still not known whether this trend will continue through the end of the cycle. Going by that, I'm sure that schools are a bit more cautious at this point about accepting and rejecting applicants than before, because they don't know exactly what to expect.

In any case, it's difficult to judge this cycle at this point, in my opinion, for many schools haven't started sending out rejections yet.


I read somewhere (and maybe someone can help me with the source) that according to LSAC, there are way more applications this year, but the actual total number of applicants hasn't increased that dramatically- meaning applicants are applying to a lot more schools. If that's true, then adcomms will be faced with a lot more applications, but also (presumably) more withdrawals towards the end of the cycle, since more applications per individual will eventually lead to more withdrawals per individual. Anyway, I think the only way that adcomms will be able to deal with this situation rationally is to drastically increase the size of their waitlists, meaning it would be a more frustrating cycle for us, but not necessarily that much more difficult.

Maybe I'm being optimistic and naive though. :) Anyway, good luck everybody!

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Unitas
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Unitas » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:49 pm

Burger in a can wrote:
Aeon wrote:I think it's a bit too early to tell. From various threads here on TLS and statements by law school admissions deans, it sounds like applications so far this cycle are up quite a bit from last year, but it's still not known whether this trend will continue through the end of the cycle. Going by that, I'm sure that schools are a bit more cautious at this point about accepting and rejecting applicants than before, because they don't know exactly what to expect.

In any case, it's difficult to judge this cycle at this point, in my opinion, for many schools haven't started sending out rejections yet.


I read somewhere (and maybe someone can help me with the source) that according to LSAC, there are way more applications this year, but the actual total number of applicants hasn't increased that dramatically- meaning applicants are applying to a lot more schools. If that's true, then adcomms will be faced with a lot more applications, but also (presumably) more withdrawals towards the end of the cycle, since more applications per individual will eventually lead to more withdrawals per individual. Anyway, I think the only way that adcomms will be able to deal with this situation rationally is to drastically increase the size of their waitlists, meaning it would be a more frustrating cycle for us, but not necessarily that much more difficult.

Maybe I'm being optimistic and naive though. :) Anyway, good luck everybody!


+1 I thought this for a while now. Because of the doom and gloom talk I ended up applying to 18 schools instead of 6... I will most likely go to 1 of 3. So I applied to a lot of schools for no reason. I assume people with lower numbers then me would do even more hedging.

I would also think there is a 5-10% increase in applications in addition to the above.
Last edited by Unitas on Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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servinDizzert
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby servinDizzert » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:49 pm

Burger in a can wrote:
Aeon wrote:I think it's a bit too early to tell. From various threads here on TLS and statements by law school admissions deans, it sounds like applications so far this cycle are up quite a bit from last year, but it's still not known whether this trend will continue through the end of the cycle. Going by that, I'm sure that schools are a bit more cautious at this point about accepting and rejecting applicants than before, because they don't know exactly what to expect.

In any case, it's difficult to judge this cycle at this point, in my opinion, for many schools haven't started sending out rejections yet.


I read somewhere (and maybe someone can help me with the source) that according to LSAC, there are way more applications this year, but the actual total number of applicants hasn't increased that dramatically- meaning applicants are applying to a lot more schools. If that's true, then adcomms will be faced with a lot more applications, but also (presumably) more withdrawals towards the end of the cycle, since more applications per individual will eventually lead to more withdrawals per individual. Anyway, I think the only way that adcomms will be able to deal with this situation rationally is to drastically increase the size of their waitlists, meaning it would be a more frustrating cycle for us, but not necessarily that much more difficult.

Maybe I'm being optimistic and naive though. :) Anyway, good luck everybody!




This is what I was thinking.....which means I probably wont know which school until this summer.....

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 5:55 pm

Deleted.
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traehekat
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby traehekat » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:17 pm

All I know for sure is there are more people taking the LSAT, meaning there are more people with at least the INTENTION of applying this cycle. Whether or not this increase in LSAT takers has translated to an increase in competition for acceptances to the top law schools is still unknown, but it may be reasonable to assume it is at least a LITTLE more competitive. It can probably be even more reasonably assumed that it is a bit more competitive at your T2, T3/4 schools.

Interestingly, during a Q&A with Dean Pless at UIUC, I asked, "With the expected rise in applications, will you be looking at anything that may indicate an applicant has had the intention of applying to law school for some time, as opposed to someone who is doing it just to hide from the economy?" He answered that UIUC does look for such indications, like pre-law classes, involvement in pre-law clubs, etc. that may show an applicant isn't just applying out of the blue. Whether or not this is a significant factor in making a decision, he did not really say. I expect it plays a minor role.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:26 pm

Redacted.
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:36 pm

traehekat wrote:All I know for sure is there are more people taking the LSAT, meaning there are more people with at least the INTENTION of applying this cycle. Whether or not this increase in LSAT takers has translated to an increase in competition for acceptances to the top law schools is still unknown, but it may be reasonable to assume it is at least a LITTLE more competitive. It can probably be even more reasonably assumed that it is a bit more competitive at your T2, T3/4 schools.

Interestingly, during a Q&A with Dean Pless at UIUC, I asked, "With the expected rise in applications, will you be looking at anything that may indicate an applicant has had the intention of applying to law school for some time, as opposed to someone who is doing it just to hide from the economy?" He answered that UIUC does look for such indications, like pre-law classes, involvement in pre-law clubs, etc. that may show an applicant isn't just applying out of the blue. Whether or not this is a significant factor in making a decision, he did not really say. I expect it plays a minor role.



LOL, clearly BS talk. It doesn't play any role, UIUC games the rankings as much as any school out there. If you can get above a 167 or a 3.8 you will most likely get in.

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Rowinguy2009
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Rowinguy2009 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:41 pm

Burger in a can wrote:
traehekat wrote:All I know for sure is there are more people taking the LSAT, meaning there are more people with at least the INTENTION of applying this cycle. Whether or not this increase in LSAT takers has translated to an increase in competition for acceptances to the top law schools is still unknown, but it may be reasonable to assume it is at least a LITTLE more competitive. It can probably be even more reasonably assumed that it is a bit more competitive at your T2, T3/4 schools.

Interestingly, during a Q&A with Dean Pless at UIUC, I asked, "With the expected rise in applications, will you be looking at anything that may indicate an applicant has had the intention of applying to law school for some time, as opposed to someone who is doing it just to hide from the economy?" He answered that UIUC does look for such indications, like pre-law classes, involvement in pre-law clubs, etc. that may show an applicant isn't just applying out of the blue. Whether or not this is a significant factor in making a decision, he did not really say. I expect it plays a minor role.


Honestly, I have never understood this. Why do people think that adcomms consider how badly you've always wanted to be a lawyer/go to law school? Aren't they primarily concerned with increasing their school's reputation and rankings, and filling their classrooms with bright, interesting minds? To what degree should displayed desire to attend matter? I guess it shows that an applicant is determined, and might be less likely to drop out?

Especially considering the fact that Pre-Law and Criminology majors are statistically some of the least likely applicants to score well on the LSAT, and thereby the least likely to be admitted to top law schools, I just don't understand why people think that appearing to "want it more" plays an important role. Do people who have been thinking about law school for a longer time have "dibs"?


I can understand this a little bit. I mean someone who is applying completely out of the blue because their BA in English isn't getting them anywhere is probably at least a little more likely to drop out of school or leave the profession compared to someone who's wanted to be a lawyer their whole life.

Obviously this is significantly trumped by numbers, but if you're looking at a tie-breaker situation or something like that I could see it playing a role.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby kalvano » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:43 pm

I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:49 pm

kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


+1. Sure, there might be an increase in quality applicants, but the majority of applicants this year are, well, below the 52nd percentile! I imagine the increase does make it more competitive, but not nearly to the extent that TLS makes it seem.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby traehekat » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:49 pm

Rowinguy2009 wrote:
Burger in a can wrote:
traehekat wrote:All I know for sure is there are more people taking the LSAT, meaning there are more people with at least the INTENTION of applying this cycle. Whether or not this increase in LSAT takers has translated to an increase in competition for acceptances to the top law schools is still unknown, but it may be reasonable to assume it is at least a LITTLE more competitive. It can probably be even more reasonably assumed that it is a bit more competitive at your T2, T3/4 schools.

Interestingly, during a Q&A with Dean Pless at UIUC, I asked, "With the expected rise in applications, will you be looking at anything that may indicate an applicant has had the intention of applying to law school for some time, as opposed to someone who is doing it just to hide from the economy?" He answered that UIUC does look for such indications, like pre-law classes, involvement in pre-law clubs, etc. that may show an applicant isn't just applying out of the blue. Whether or not this is a significant factor in making a decision, he did not really say. I expect it plays a minor role.


Honestly, I have never understood this. Why do people think that adcomms consider how badly you've a
Dwaterman86 wrote:
traehekat wrote:All I know for sure is there are more people taking the LSAT, meaning there are more people with at least the INTENTION of applying this cycle. Whether or not this increase in LSAT takers has translated to an increase in competition for acceptances to the top law schools is still unknown, but it may be reasonable to assume it is at least a LITTLE more competitive. It can probably be even more reasonably assumed that it is a bit more competitive at your T2, T3/4 schools.

Interestingly, during a Q&A with Dean Pless at UIUC, I asked, "With the expected rise in applications, will you be looking at anything that may indicate an applicant has had the intention of applying to law school for some time, as opposed to someone who is doing it just to hide from the economy?" He answered that UIUC does look for such indications, like pre-law classes, involvement in pre-law clubs, etc. that may show an applicant isn't just applying out of the blue. Whether or not this is a significant factor in making a decision, he did not really say. I expect it plays a minor role.



LOL, clearly BS talk. It doesn't play any role, UIUC games the rankings as much as any school out there. If you can get above a 167 or a 3.8 you will most likely get in.
lways wanted to be a lawyer/go to law school? Aren't they primarily concerned with increasing their school's reputation and rankings, and filling their classrooms with bright, interesting minds? To what degree should displayed desire to attend matter? I guess it shows that an applicant is determined, and might be less likely to drop out?

Especially considering the fact that Pre-Law and Criminology majors are statistically some of the least likely applicants to score well on the LSAT, and thereby the least likely to be admitted to top law schools, I just don't understand why people think that appearing to "want it more" plays an important role. Do people who have been thinking about law school for a longer time have "dibs"?


I can understand this a little bit. I mean someone who is applying completely out of the blue because their BA in English isn't getting them anywhere is probably at least a little more likely to drop out of school or leave the profession compared to someone who's wanted to be a lawyer their whole life.

Obviously this is significantly trumped by numbers, but if you're looking at a tie-breaker situation or something like that I could see it playing a role.


:P Like I said, I don't think it plays a large role. In fact, it probably plays none. This was, obviously, just a politically correct answer. What do you expect him to say, "No, it doesn't matter. All we care about are your numbers."? I mean, he has to acknowledge the fact that there ARE some people out there applying to law school for lack of a better option, and he DID give this answer in front of a bunch of students in a pre-law class, so he may have just been giving us the answer we wanted to hear.

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D. H2Oman
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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:50 pm

kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?



You're right it doesn't mean that, but I think see no reason to believe that the there will be a lower percentage of quality applications.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby tesoro » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:50 pm

kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


If the september exam is representative of this year's applicant pool, 20% will be more competitive.

September LSAT takers went from ~50k in 2008 to ~60k in 2009. This is a ~20% increase. Because LSAT scores are normalized, 20% more testtakers will receive any given score in that examination than did testtakers in 2008. For example, 20% more people scored a 170 in September 2009 than did in September 2008.

Therefore, competition should be expected to be tighter. The degree to how much tighter it will be is up in the air, but we're nearing a point where there will soon be more 170+s awarded to LSAT takers than there are seats in the T14.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:51 pm

traehekat wrote:
:P Like I said, I don't think it plays a large role. In fact, it probably plays none. This was, obviously, just a politically correct answer. What do you expect him to say, "No, it doesn't matter. All we care about are your numbers."? I mean, he has to acknowledge the fact that there ARE some people out there applying to law school for lack of a better option, and he DID give this answer in front of a bunch of students in a pre-law class, so he may have just been giving us the answer we wanted to hear.


Sorry- I redacted my statement because I misread your post. I thought you said that it was surprising that he DIDN'T look at an established desire to practice law. RC fail for me. :)

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby D. H2Oman » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:52 pm

tesoro wrote:
kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


If the september exam is representative of this year's applicant pool, 20% will be more competitive.

September LSAT takers went from ~50k in 2008 to ~60k in 2009. This is a ~20% increase. Because LSAT scores are normalized, 20% more testtakers will receive any given score in that examination than did testtakers in 2008. For example, 20% more people scored a 170 in September 2009 than did in September 2008.
Therefore, competition should be expected to be tighter. The degree to how much tighter it will be is up in the air, but we're nearing a point where there will soon be more 170+s awarded to LSAT takers than there are seats in the T14.



FYI, that's wrong.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:56 pm

tesoro wrote:
kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


If the september exam is representative of this year's applicant pool, 20% will be more competitive.

September LSAT takers went from ~50k in 2008 to ~60k in 2009. This is a ~20% increase. Because LSAT scores are normalized, 20% more testtakers will receive any given score in that examination than did testtakers in 2008. For example, 20% more people scored a 170 in September 2009 than did in September 2008.

Therefore, competition should be expected to be tighter. The degree to how much tighter it will be is up in the air, but we're nearing a point where there will soon be more 170+s awarded to LSAT takers than there are seats in the T14.


I was pretty sure that LSATs aren't scored like this- isn't the curve determined by previous testers? I mean, aren't LSATs still just scored by raw score-->LSAT score? For instance, I guess I was under the impression that it's possible (though statistically unlikely) for there to be 1 person in the world to score a 180 (or any specific score, for that matter), regardless of how many people take the test. Is this not true?

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby wadeny » Sun Dec 13, 2009 6:59 pm

Threads like this keep popping up week after week, and the answer remains the same: no one knows. It's still December and a lot of applications have yet to be submitted. You can talk about the increased number LSAT takers and about certain schools releasing preliminary stats (i.e. Iowa), but it's all speculation at this point. Anyone who is posting on here as if they somehow know what's going on is full of BS. Just calm down and wait a few more months.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby Burger in a can » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:04 pm

wadeny wrote:Threads like this keep popping up week after week, and the answer remains the same: no one knows. It's still December and a lot of applications have yet to be submitted. You can talk about the increased number LSAT takers and about certain schools releasing preliminary stats (i.e. Iowa), but it's all speculation at this point. Anyone who is posting on here as if they somehow know what's going on is full of BS. Just calm down and wait a few more months.


Welcome to TLS. Here, we speculate. :mrgreen:

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby 09042014 » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:04 pm

tesoro wrote:
kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


If the september exam is representative of this year's applicant pool, 20% will be more competitive.

September LSAT takers went from ~50k in 2008 to ~60k in 2009. This is a ~20% increase. Because LSAT scores are normalized, 20% more testtakers will receive any given score in that examination than did testtakers in 2008. For example, 20% more people scored a 170 in September 2009 than did in September 2008.

Therefore, competition should be expected to be tighter. The degree to how much tighter it will be is up in the air, but we're nearing a point where there will soon be more 170+s awarded to LSAT takers than there are seats in the T14.


That's not true. A 170 doesn't equal 97.5 percentile on every test. A 170 in Sept 08 is supposed to equal a 170 in Sept 09.

But its silly to assume almost all economy driven applicants are not going to be competitive. If the economy was good I'd probably wait several years to apply (or maybe never at all if I got management tracked in a good company) and I got a 176.

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Re: Evidence admission is more difficult this year?

Postby tesoro » Sun Dec 13, 2009 7:09 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
tesoro wrote:
kalvano wrote:I will also say again, just because the number of applications is up, it doesn't mean the quality of applications is up.

They might get 1,000 more applicants, but how many of those will be competitive?


If the september exam is representative of this year's applicant pool, 20% will be more competitive.

September LSAT takers went from ~50k in 2008 to ~60k in 2009. This is a ~20% increase. Because LSAT scores are normalized, 20% more testtakers will receive any given score in that examination than did testtakers in 2008. For example, 20% more people scored a 170 in September 2009 than did in September 2008.

Therefore, competition should be expected to be tighter. The degree to how much tighter it will be is up in the air, but we're nearing a point where there will soon be more 170+s awarded to LSAT takers than there are seats in the T14.


That's not true. A 170 doesn't equal 97.5 percentile on every test. A 170 in Sept 08 is supposed to equal a 170 in Sept 09.

But its silly to assume almost all economy driven applicants are not going to be competitive. If the economy was good I'd probably wait several years to apply (or maybe never at all if I got management tracked in a good company) and I got a 176.


Aren't scores normalized over six administrations only though? So a profound increase in one of the six administration's test takers should be able to significantly skew the curve.

I believe you that I'm wrong about the 20% figure. I still think that there is a significant increase in 170+ scorers though... this requires more thinking.




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