USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

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Kohinoor
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Kohinoor » Fri May 01, 2009 4:34 pm

solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

The only prolific pro-law poster here is swheat. You look as ridiculous as he does because of your own extremism.

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Mr. Matlock
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Mr. Matlock » Fri May 01, 2009 4:36 pm

solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

If you can say that sentence 3 times really fast solo.... hell, I'll give you a job. (No, not a blow... the other one)

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 4:47 pm

Kohinoor wrote:
solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

The only prolific pro-law poster here is swheat. You look as ridiculous as he does because of your own extremism.


I'm not a prolific pro-law school poster. I just think you guys are too risk averse and too conservative with your expectations. I wouldn't recommend any TTT/TTTT for any amount of money. But a T2 in a big market is not the freaking worst investment in the world. Nobody doing this should expect financial glory any time soon, but I believe most T2 grads have fairly successful careers. Multi-millionaires? No. But middle class? Definitely. Upper middle class? Most likely.

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Kohinoor
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Kohinoor » Fri May 01, 2009 5:07 pm

swheat wrote:
Kohinoor wrote:
solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

The only prolific pro-law poster here is swheat. You look as ridiculous as he does because of your own extremism.


I'm not a prolific pro-law school poster. I just think you guys are too risk averse and too conservative with your expectations. I wouldn't recommend any TTT/TTTT for any amount of money. But a T2 in a big market is not the freaking worst investment in the world. Nobody doing this should expect financial glory any time soon, but I believe most T2 grads have fairly successful careers. Multi-millionaires? No. But middle class? Definitely. Upper middle class? Most likely.

Middle-class is technically defined as 35k+ per household. That's not saying much considering the LS investment could exceed 200k.

'04 Grad
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby '04 Grad » Fri May 01, 2009 5:16 pm

swheat wrote:
Kohinoor wrote:
solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

The only prolific pro-law poster here is swheat. You look as ridiculous as he does because of your own extremism.


I'm not a prolific pro-law school poster. I just think you guys are too risk averse and too conservative with your expectations. I wouldn't recommend any TTT/TTTT for any amount of money. But a T2 in a big market is not the freaking worst investment in the world. Nobody doing this should expect financial glory any time soon, but I believe most T2 grads have fairly successful careers. Multi-millionaires? No. But middle class? Definitely. Upper middle class? Most likely.


Your own statistics show that the average salaries for lawyers (not just starting salaries) aren't very high and could hardly be considered "upper middle class." Especially when you're servicing $150K in student loan debt over 30 years.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 5:16 pm

Kohinoor wrote:
swheat wrote:
Kohinoor wrote:
solo_lawyer wrote:I have to wonder if certain prolific pro-law school posters here are proprietors of law school prep websites or whether they are clinically delusional

The only prolific pro-law poster here is swheat. You look as ridiculous as he does because of your own extremism.


I'm not a prolific pro-law school poster. I just think you guys are too risk averse and too conservative with your expectations. I wouldn't recommend any TTT/TTTT for any amount of money. But a T2 in a big market is not the freaking worst investment in the world. Nobody doing this should expect financial glory any time soon, but I believe most T2 grads have fairly successful careers. Multi-millionaires? No. But middle class? Definitely. Upper middle class? Most likely.

Middle-class is technically defined as 35k+ per household. That's not saying much considering the LS investment could exceed 200k.


Upper middle class? Most likely.

Sigh...here we go again. Straight from the BLS, national averages. Of course these statistics are lies backed by profit motives :roll:

Occupation Code Occupation Title (click on the occupation title to view an occupational profile) Employment (1) Median Hourly Mean Hourly Mean Annual (2) Mean RSE (3)
23-0000 Legal Occupations 1,003,270 $34.49 $44.36 $92,270 0.6 %
23-1011 Lawyers 553,690 $53.17 $59.98 $124,750 0.6 %

Make a conservative guess, say the person starts out at 60k per year and never goes above 90k in his/her career. On a dual income you are likely talking 100k+ in yearly income. A household income of $100k+ puts you in the top 20% of Americans.

Image

Struggle with the debt for 10 years or so, then live comfortably.

Amongst a group of such smart people, I feel like I'm speaking Greek sometimes.

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Kohinoor
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Kohinoor » Fri May 01, 2009 5:30 pm

swheat wrote:Sigh...here we go again. Straight from the BLS, national averages. Of course these statistics are lies backed by profit motives :roll:

Occupation Code Occupation Title (click on the occupation title to view an occupational profile) Employment (1) Median Hourly Mean Hourly Mean Annual (2) Mean RSE (3)
23-0000 Legal Occupations 1,003,270 $34.49 $44.36 $92,270 0.6 %
23-1011 Lawyers 553,690 $53.17 $59.98 $124,750 0.6 %

Make a conservative guess, say the person starts out at 60k per year and never goes above 90k in his/her career. On a dual income you are likely talking 100k+ in yearly income. A household income of $100k+ puts you in the top 20% of Americans.

Image

Struggle with the debt for 10 years or so, then live comfortably.

Amongst a group of such smart people, I feel like I'm speaking Greek sometimes.
I see a chart with no labeled x or y axes. Also, your conservative guess should be starting at 35k.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 5:34 pm

Yessssssssss....the ol' 35k/no proof argument! I knew it would make a comeback at some point!

In that situation, if it even occurred, wouldn't the person be wise just to do PI, use LRAP, and avoid the 120k in loans that is you guys' reason for rejecting OP's plan?

'04 Grad
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby '04 Grad » Fri May 01, 2009 5:35 pm

I don't consider $100K to be Upper Middle Class. It wouldn't go far in the true upper middle class suburbs of any major American cities. Especially not with $1,200/month loan payments.

You keep trotting "Median" statistics, but a median is not a useful measure when you have a bi-modal salary distribution.

My argument is not that a law degree equals poverty. There are good legal jobs available (or at least before the economic meltdown). If you get into a decent T30 school, then you'll probably be okay. Starting salaries won't be what you imagine but there are opportunities. My problem is the with the cost of the schools below the T30. I don't mind the public schools like Nebraska or Oklahoma. They're subsidized by the state and serve a valuable purpose.

But private schools below the T30 are not good options for about 90% of their students (except for those with wealthy parents who can finance their education). If they were substantially cheaper (like they were about 15 years ago - law school tuition increases have exceeded inflation and the growth in attorney salaries) and if there were fewer attorneys they would be decent options for maybe the majority of their students. Look at all of the schools dismissed as TTT and you'll see successful alumni who graduated through about the late 1980's. Now there are simply too many attorneys and not enough jobs and law grads are burdened with significant debt.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 5:35 pm

Kohinoor wrote:I see a chart with no labeled x or y axes. Also, your conservative guess should be starting at 35k.


Here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_ ... ted_States

Read up on it. It might be an eye-opening experience for someone who only sees the world in biglaw-tinted glasses.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 5:36 pm

'04 Grad wrote:I don't consider $100K to be Upper Middle Class.


Then you are a moron. That chart I just posted shows only 15.8% of American households earning 100k+. I suggest you read that wikipedia article as well and get some perspective.


Dennis Gilbert 2002 definition:
Upper middle class[1] (Top 15%) Highly educated (often with graduate degrees), most commonly salaried, professionals and middle management with large work autonomy

Thompson & Hickey 2005 definition:
Upper middle class[1] (top 15%) Highly educated (often with graduate degrees) professionals & managers with household incomes varying from the high 5-figure range to commonly above $100,000

'04 Grad
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby '04 Grad » Fri May 01, 2009 5:49 pm

swheat wrote:
'04 Grad wrote:I don't consider $100K to be Upper Middle Class.


Then you are a moron. That chart I just posted shows only 15.8% of American households earning 100k+. I suggest you read that wikipedia article as well and get some perspective.


Dennis Gilbert 2002 definition:
Upper middle class[1] (Top 15%) Highly educated (often with graduate degrees), most commonly salaried, professionals and middle management with large work autonomy

Thompson & Hickey 2005 definition:
Upper middle class[1] (top 15%) Highly educated (often with graduate degrees) professionals & managers with household incomes varying from the high 5-figure range to commonly above $100,000


I know that the average American family makes around $40K to $50K depending on where they live and that only a small percentage of Americans make over $100K but that doesn't mean that everyone earning over $100K is upper middle class. A true upper middle class lifestyle requires around $200K depending on the area. In the NE it might need to be even higher. $100K (with law school debt) won't allow for a house in the true upper middle suburbs. It won't be enough for the true upper middle class private schools.

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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 5:52 pm

'04 Grad wrote:
I know that the average American family makes around $40K to $50K depending on where they live and that only a small percentage of Americans make over $100K but that doesn't mean that everyone earning over $100K is upper middle class. A true upper middle class lifestyle requires around $200K depending on the area. In the NE it might need to be even higher. $100K (with law school debt) won't allow for a house in the true upper middle suburbs. It won't be enough for the true upper middle class private schools.


Of course there are COL considerations. But check this quote:

In 2004, California was the most expensive state in the nation[51] and had a median household income of $49,894 (rank 13).[52]


Dunno about you guys but I'd rather be 120k in debt with 100k household income than these guys @50k income. At least you have something to look forward to when the loans are finally paid down.

'04 Grad
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby '04 Grad » Fri May 01, 2009 5:58 pm

swheat wrote:
'04 Grad wrote:
I know that the average American family makes around $40K to $50K depending on where they live and that only a small percentage of Americans make over $100K but that doesn't mean that everyone earning over $100K is upper middle class. A true upper middle class lifestyle requires around $200K depending on the area. In the NE it might need to be even higher. $100K (with law school debt) won't allow for a house in the true upper middle suburbs. It won't be enough for the true upper middle class private schools.


Of course there are COL considerations. But check this quote:

In 2004, California was the most expensive state in the nation[51] and had a median household income of $49,894 (rank 13).[52]


Dunno about you guys but I'd rather be 120k in debt with 100k household income than these guys @50k income. At least you have something to look forward to when the loans are finally paid down.


And now we come back to the major flaw in your argument. Is it law school versus $49K a year? What is the median salary in CA for people with college degrees? There are plenty of jobs that pay very well that do not require any kind of a graduate degree. I work with many people who make very good salaries who don't have graduate degrees.

As for looking forward to when your loans are paid for, if you pay it off over 30 years, you'll be at least 55. That's a long time to "look foward" to anything.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 6:00 pm

'04 Grad wrote:And now we come back to the major flaw in your argument. Is it law school versus $49K a year? What is the median salary in CA for people with college degrees? There are plenty of jobs that pay very well that do not require any kind of a graduate degree. I work with many people who make very good salaries who don't have graduate degrees.

As for looking forward to when your loans are paid for, if you pay it off over 30 years, you'll be at least 55. That's a long time to "look foward" to anything.


And now we are back to your "OP should do healthcare instead & stash their money in a MMA @ 2% for a better return" argument. :D

snotrocket
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby snotrocket » Fri May 01, 2009 6:01 pm

solo_lawyer wrote:one more thing--how is NALP funded? By manna falling from the skies?

You can take the NALP statistics as a reliable source. They're credible, widely reviewed, and cover nearly the entire graduating class nationwide each year (at least on the overall response rate -- for salaries they only seem to cover about 1/2 the market, and that's certainly the better half). What they don't produce, and what would be the single biggest, most useful thing for everyone involved, are per-school breakdowns. But chances we'll ever see that though are about zero. They get the data directly from graduates, so it's not like they need consent from schools to collect it. But they need a source for contact info, and not having that would be a big obstacle. Schools would almost certainly not give it if they thought the results would come back to bite them in the ass.

The distribution for the Class of 2007 is even uglier than the picture for 2006. And keep in mind that 2007 was the tail end of a record boom for the legal market. Even when things were better than they will probably ever be again for new lawyers, the market was still lousy as hell for most. Of those that even managed to get jobs, 42% are in that big fat lower peak between $40-60k. With this fall and the next few years looking like the worst hiring climate for lawyers in thirty or forty years, it won't be long before people are wishing for the good old days when it was only that bad.

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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby snotrocket » Fri May 01, 2009 6:21 pm

solo_lawyer wrote:one more thing--how is NALP funded? By manna falling from the skies?

Here are some numbers from the Class of 2007 National Summary Report.

Total graduates: 43,518

Full-time job, bar passage required: 29,978 (0.69)

Employed at graduation: 23,419 (0.54)

Employed out of state: 12,569 (0.29)

Got job through --
Fall OCI: 6,859 (0.16)
Mass mailing: 6,777 (0.16)
Referral: 4,679 (0.11)
Job posting: 4,253 (0.10)
Return to prior job: 1,975 (0.05)

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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 6:33 pm

snotrocket wrote:
solo_lawyer wrote:one more thing--how is NALP funded? By manna falling from the skies?

Here are some numbers from the Class of 2007 National Summary Report.

Total graduates: 43,518

Full-time job, bar passage required: 29,978 (0.69)

Employed at graduation: 23,419 (0.54)

Employed out of state: 12,569 (0.29)

Got job through --
Fall OCI: 6,859 (0.16)
Mass mailing: 6,777 (0.16)
Referral: 4,679 (0.11)
Job posting: 4,253 (0.10)
Return to prior job: 1,975 (0.05)


Wonder how the other 42% got their jobs

There's your craigslist 04 Grad!! Whopping 10%. I wonder if that includes job postings on company boards as well as craigslist. If so I would bet that pushes the craigslist total down even further.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 7:00 pm

Nice link snotrocket.

http://www.nalp.org/uploads/1229_natlsu ... evised.pdf

It shows "Commercial Internet Site" (ie. CRAIGSLIST) as accounting for 2-3% of responses to method used in finding a job.

"Fall OCI" (22.6) + "Return to Prior Job"(6.5) + Referral (15.4) + Spring OCI (1.6) + Self-intiated/letter (22.3)

Adds up to 58.4% of the responses. Looks like vindication for my notion that most jobs are found through OCI and networking.

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Kohinoor
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Kohinoor » Fri May 01, 2009 8:18 pm

swheat wrote:Nice link snotrocket.

http://www.nalp.org/uploads/1229_natlsu ... evised.pdf

It shows "Commercial Internet Site" (ie. CRAIGSLIST) as accounting for 2-3% of responses to method used in finding a job.

"Fall OCI" (22.6) + "Return to Prior Job"(6.5) + Referral (15.4) + Spring OCI (1.6) + Self-intiated/letter (22.3)

Adds up to 58.4% of the responses. Looks like vindication for my notion that most jobs are found through OCI and networking.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 27% of grads as solos and NALP reports 2.8%, something is being missed somewhere.

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General Tso
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby General Tso » Fri May 01, 2009 8:21 pm

Kohinoor wrote:
swheat wrote:Nice link snotrocket.

http://www.nalp.org/uploads/1229_natlsu ... evised.pdf

It shows "Commercial Internet Site" (ie. CRAIGSLIST) as accounting for 2-3% of responses to method used in finding a job.

"Fall OCI" (22.6) + "Return to Prior Job"(6.5) + Referral (15.4) + Spring OCI (1.6) + Self-intiated/letter (22.3)

Adds up to 58.4% of the responses. Looks like vindication for my notion that most jobs are found through OCI and networking.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 27% of grads as solos and NALP reports 2.8%, something is being missed somewhere.


BLS reports 27% of new grads working solo, or 27% of all lawyers working solo? Because there's a huge difference.

snotrocket
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby snotrocket » Fri May 01, 2009 9:17 pm

Kohinoor wrote:If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 27% of grads as solos and NALP reports 2.8%, something is being missed somewhere.

Very few new graduates will or can start a solo practice straight out of school. It makes sense that the percentage of solos overall is noticeably higher, since most people that do that will strike out on their own after a few years of experience (frustration) working for someone else.

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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby Cramble » Fri May 01, 2009 9:23 pm


snotrocket
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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby snotrocket » Fri May 01, 2009 9:38 pm

How new graduates find jobs.

Total Graduates: 43,518

Unknown / Unemployed: 15,518 (0.357)

Resume Spam --
Mass Mailing: 6,777 (0.156)
Job Posting: 4,253 (0.098)
Internet: 780 (0.018)
TOTAL: 11,810 (0.27)

OCI --
Fall OCI: 6,859 (0.158)
Job Fair: 834 (0.019)
Spring OCI: 497 (0.011)
TOTAL: 8,190 (0.188)

Networking --
Referral: 4,679
Prior Job: 1,975
TOTAL: 6,654 (0.152)

Temp Agency: 513 (0.012)

Solo Practice: 833 (0.019)

So, less than 1 in 5 get jobs through OCI, about 1/4 by mass resume spam, 15% through networking, and the biggest chunk -- 36% -- are flipping burgers or doing nothing. Again, keep in mind that this was in the leading year of the decade, at the tail end of a huge boom in demand for legal services, and in a hiring market that likely none of us will see again for the rest of our careers.
Last edited by snotrocket on Sat May 02, 2009 8:26 am, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: USF - worth it for $120,000 in loans?

Postby badfish » Fri May 01, 2009 9:46 pm

Sorry, the risk is just way too high.




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