RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

(Applications Advice, Letters of Recommendation . . . )
toaster2
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 11:55 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby toaster2 » Tue May 26, 2009 12:30 am

.
Last edited by toaster2 on Tue May 25, 2010 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Dick Whitman
Posts: 232
Joined: Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:55 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Dick Whitman » Tue May 26, 2009 12:37 am

sba314 wrote:The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.


How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)

toaster2
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 11:55 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby toaster2 » Tue May 26, 2009 12:44 am

.
Last edited by toaster2 on Tue May 25, 2010 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
RVP11
Posts: 2774
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:32 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby RVP11 » Tue May 26, 2009 12:49 am

toaster2 wrote:
Dick Whitman wrote:
sba314 wrote:The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.


How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)
China is a total disaster. Their commercial real estate and stock markets have been hit very hard over the past year. Upwards of 25 million have lost jobs. They face serious constraints on certain raw materials necessary for increasing the standard of living of the average Chinese. As they develop their communications infrastructure and their citizens globalize, the communist government will find itself increasingly unable to continue the status quo. Because of the one child policy, they are facing a demographic disaster, with and entire generation overpopulated with men. I can't imagine that tens of millions of poor farmers/factory workers who can't even entertain the notion of a family bodes well for stability.


Sounds like there will be a huge demand for (female) sex robots. Put a dent in the human prostitution industry.

User avatar
airlineraddict
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:21 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby airlineraddict » Tue May 26, 2009 12:53 am

toaster2 wrote:
airlineraddict wrote:One could make the argument that the United States is clearly no longer the financial god of the world, that China will replace us.
Please provide evidence showing that we have lost ground in the "financial department" compared to our peers.


Please learn to read. I never made the claim. I said "one could argue." I'm considering multiple avenues of arguments here.


airlineraddict wrote:Since Obama seems anti-bubble, he will pop any super-accelerated recovery based on some new bubble.
I didn't realize the president had ready access to "bubble popping measures."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21393.html

toaster2
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed May 13, 2009 11:55 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby toaster2 » Tue May 26, 2009 1:04 am

.
Last edited by toaster2 on Tue May 25, 2010 1:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
stab master arson
Posts: 304
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2008 3:23 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby stab master arson » Tue May 26, 2009 12:21 pm

airlineraddict wrote:
airlineraddict wrote:Since Obama seems anti-bubble, he will pop any super-accelerated recovery based on some new bubble.
I didn't realize the president had ready access to "bubble popping measures."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21393.html
Hooray for central planning!

hiro86
Posts: 137
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 6:10 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby hiro86 » Wed May 27, 2009 11:46 pm

JSUVA2012 wrote:
toaster2 wrote:
Dick Whitman wrote:
sba314 wrote:The grass may look greener over there, but China has a good number of economic issues itself.


How many people are queuing up to immigrate from the US to China? (Presumably similar to the numbers of liberals/conservatives who moved to Canada/Paraguay after W/Obama was elected.)
China is a total disaster. Their commercial real estate and stock markets have been hit very hard over the past year. Upwards of 25 million have lost jobs. They face serious constraints on certain raw materials necessary for increasing the standard of living of the average Chinese. As they develop their communications infrastructure and their citizens globalize, the communist government will find itself increasingly unable to continue the status quo. Because of the one child policy, they are facing a demographic disaster, with and entire generation overpopulated with men. I can't imagine that tens of millions of poor farmers/factory workers who can't even entertain the notion of a family bodes well for stability.


Sounds like there will be a huge demand for (female) sex robots. Put a dent in the human prostitution industry.

No need, they will probably just invade some country and steal all of their women.

User avatar
airlineraddict
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:21 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby airlineraddict » Wed May 27, 2009 11:57 pm

As the dollar is weakens, oil prices are going to hike. People and other oil dependent parties are in for a shocker. I sure hope airlines, at the very least, hedged their fuel contracts to the two-month-ago levels.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/139921- ... rice-spike
http://seekingalpha.com/article/139840- ... ice-stupid
http://seekingalpha.com/article/139718- ... e-mckinsey

User avatar
airlineraddict
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:21 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby airlineraddict » Wed May 27, 2009 11:59 pm

On the bright side, Chrysler is already looking to emerge from bankruptcy. I had to do a double-take when I saw this. I had become accustomed to a United Airlines-esque restructuring, spanning something like a decade(?).

Edit: And now, as my pea-sized brain connects the above two posts. Chrysler might be forced to re-enter bankruptcy as oil prices worsen.

User avatar
Rsrcht
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:02 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Rsrcht » Thu May 28, 2009 2:11 pm

[quote=toaster2]Do do you believe that avenue of argument? Because if you don't, I don't understand why you mentioned it and continued to discuss its implications.[/quote]

Do future lawyers have to necessarily believe the arguments they make anonymously online, or IRL for that matter? Perhaps it is for the sake of intellectual curiosity, or of usefulness. Politicians make arguments they don't believe in all of the time for the sake of the argument's usefulness. But to be fair, an argument requires some supporting evidence to be made, otherwise it is just a statement, not necessarily of fact. So in determining whether one could or could not make such an argument, evidence would still have to be provided.

User avatar
airlineraddict
Posts: 89
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 6:21 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby airlineraddict » Thu May 28, 2009 2:22 pm

Pretty sure toaster is a cylon.

User avatar
RVP11
Posts: 2774
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:32 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby RVP11 » Thu May 28, 2009 10:00 pm

betasteve wrote:zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=73551


I give a frownie face to this. Hopefully I won't have to deal with other T14 kids flooding my desired market because they read ATL and can make up phony relatives to establish "regional ties". I feel like the spited kid who liked the unpopular band before they got cool.

User avatar
Cleareyes
Posts: 408
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2009 5:59 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Cleareyes » Thu May 28, 2009 10:04 pm

betasteve wrote:zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=73551


--ImageRemoved--

User avatar
Kohinoor
Posts: 2756
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Kohinoor » Sat May 30, 2009 6:55 pm

betasteve wrote:
JSUVA2012 wrote:
betasteve wrote:zOMG midlaw exists: --LinkRemoved--

(Concept taken from another poster, but yeah...)
Discussion here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=73551


I give a frownie face to this. Hopefully I won't have to deal with other T14 kids flooding my desired market because they read ATL and can make up phony relatives to establish "regional ties". I feel like the spited kid who liked the unpopular band before they got cool.

Most won't give up their elitist coastal living.

Better dead in NY than alive in Seattle.

User avatar
Antipodean
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:40 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Antipodean » Wed Jun 03, 2009 11:52 am

betasteve wrote:LOL. The only way I'd spend more than a week in NYC is if I were dead.

I don't think it takes an entire week for a body to float down the Hudson.

User avatar
Rsrcht
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2008 1:02 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Rsrcht » Wed Jun 03, 2009 12:01 pm

Antipodean wrote:
betasteve wrote:LOL. The only way I'd spend more than a week in NYC is if I were dead.

I don't think it takes an entire week for a body to float down the Hudson.


It might with cement shoes.

imchuckbass58
Posts: 1245
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:24 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby imchuckbass58 » Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:15 pm

Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.

User avatar
RVP11
Posts: 2774
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:32 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby RVP11 » Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:09 pm

imchuckbass58 wrote:Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.


Considering we don't know which firms constitute that 22% number, it's hard to say what that exactly translates to.

For example, 4 firms/offices in my home town decided to stop doing OCI at UVA this year, out of a total 7 that used to. These 7 firms together have only hired 3 UVA grads in the past 3 years. It's likely they're no longer traveling to OCI at UVA because of lack of interest among students and the need to cut the costs of travel. But 4 fewer firms interviewing at UVA will have no effect on total hiring % at the school.

imchuckbass58
Posts: 1245
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2009 3:24 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby imchuckbass58 » Mon Jun 08, 2009 1:43 pm

JSUVA2012 wrote:
imchuckbass58 wrote:Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.


Considering we don't know which firms constitute that 22% number, it's hard to say what that exactly translates to.

For example, 4 firms/offices in my home town decided to stop doing OCI at UVA this year, out of a total 7 that used to. These 7 firms together have only hired 3 UVA grads in the past 3 years. It's likely they're no longer traveling to OCI at UVA because of lack of interest among students and the need to cut the costs of travel. But 4 fewer firms interviewing at UVA will have no effect on total hiring % at the school.


I see your point and agree it's generally valid, however I'd point out that the 22% reduction is not in the # of firms interviewing, but rather the number of schedules (i.e. interview slots)

User avatar
rayiner
Posts: 6184
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:43 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:15 pm

imchuckbass58 wrote:Well, to add some specualtive fuel to the fire:

--LinkRemoved--

Summary: Mayer Brown pulled out of the Chicago IP fair (biggest IP job fair in the country). CLS interview schedules down 22% (offers likely down more, since they'll be more selective in those schedules as well). Someone in the comments is claiming OCI at Michigan down huge, but who knows how reliable that is.


F--k. Et tu IP?

User avatar
rayiner
Posts: 6184
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:43 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:23 pm

I think there is one bit of misinformation floating about: "law firms hire for their needs 3 years out." The analysis I did of the last recession shows that this wasn't the case then, and it probably won't be the case now. The economy tanked in 2001 and 2002, and the total hiring was lowest for C/O 2003 and and C/O 2004. It was C/O 2005 that felt the effects of the recovery that happened in 2003. In other words, C/O 2012 is getting reamed unless the economy picks back up around OCI time next year.

User avatar
RVP11
Posts: 2774
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:32 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby RVP11 » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:29 pm

rayiner wrote:I think there is one bit of misinformation floating about: "law firms hire for their needs 3 years out." The analysis I did of the last recession shows that this wasn't the case then, and it probably won't be the case now. The economy tanked in 2001 and 2002, and the total hiring was lowest for C/O 2003 and and C/O 2004. It was C/O 2005 that felt the effects of the recovery that happened in 2003. In other words, C/O 2012 is getting reamed unless the economy picks back up around OCI time next year.


In an ideal world (where you could accurately predict your needs in 3 years) I think employers would hire that way, but people don't understand that a firm has to be able to afford to pay those SAs in the meantime.

User avatar
rayiner
Posts: 6184
Joined: Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:43 am

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:33 pm

EVERYBODY is frightened; it's what happens in a crap economy like this. Just because you're 2Ls doesn't mean you deserve serious consideration. The mid-level associates that are being laid off are the meat and potatoes of the legal industry and in doing so the partners are screwing themselves in the long run. Who cares about law students? They're fungible and know nothing about the actual practice of law.


I like this reply in that ATL thread.

User avatar
lawfool
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:40 pm

Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby lawfool » Mon Jun 08, 2009 2:35 pm

For a supposedly risk averse profession, many law firms seem to be horribly mismanaged for the inevitable business cycle.

Firms have small reserves and pay out nearly all profits to partners AFAIK. That so few firms have gone under is a testament that things haven't gotten depression level bad.

Things are all relative. Relative to 2007, 2012 is likely going to get reamed. Compared to 2004, things could be considered the same.

EDIT: Biggest change could be V10 pulling away from everyone else. Nearly every other professional service industry has a top-10 group of firms that account for 30-80% of business. In law, the V10 accounts for 4%.




Return to “Law School Admissions Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests