RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

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Cleareyes
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Cleareyes » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:26 am

lawgrl09 wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:To me "SoL" means "standard of living" so I don't know what you mean.


SoL=Shit Out of Luck.


Thanks for the clarification. I'm not saying don't go to law school and I'm not into the whole "if you can't get into a T10 or T20, don't bother going thing." Law schools are, for the most part, regional and their career networks are strongest in the city closest to them.

I'm saying that regardless of where you go, the market is going to be tough the next few years and it may not be any better for those of us in class of 2012. In a sense, everyone is out of luck until the market improves. So in answer to your question, don't go to a big rank school assuming that a BigLaw job will fall into your lap. Go to law school because you want to learn the law. Not because you want a fantastic lifestyle.


Would you extend this all the way up to HYS or is there some cut off? I have a hard time believing Yale grads are going to have a hard time finding employment. Sure there will be some asked to defer, and a few unlucky folks who pick firms that go out of business between 1L and graduation, but do you really think we're going to see a bunch of Yalies killing each other over the chance to shine shoes at the New Haven Amtrak station?

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:27 am

lawgrl09 wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:To me "SoL" means "standard of living" so I don't know what you mean.


SoL=Shit Out of Luck.


Thanks for the clarification. I'm not saying don't go to law school and I'm not into the whole "if you can't get into a T10 or T20, don't bother going thing." Law schools are, for the most part, regional and their career networks are strongest in the city closest to them.

I'm saying that regardless of where you go, the market is going to be tough the next few years and it may not be any better for those of us in class of 2012. In a sense, everyone is out of luck until the market improves. So in answer to your question, don't go to a big rank school assuming that a BigLaw job will fall into your lap. Go to law school because you want to learn the law. Not because you want a fantastic lifestyle or can't think of something better to do.


not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading

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lawgrl09
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby lawgrl09 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:34 am

Cleareyes wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:To me "SoL" means "standard of living" so I don't know what you mean.


SoL=Shit Out of Luck.


Thanks for the clarification. I'm not saying don't go to law school and I'm not into the whole "if you can't get into a T10 or T20, don't bother going thing." Law schools are, for the most part, regional and their career networks are strongest in the city closest to them.

I'm saying that regardless of where you go, the market is going to be tough the next few years and it may not be any better for those of us in class of 2012. In a sense, everyone is out of luck until the market improves. So in answer to your question, don't go to a big rank school assuming that a BigLaw job will fall into your lap. Go to law school because you want to learn the law. Not because you want a fantastic lifestyle.


Would you extend this all the way up to HYS or is there some cut off? I have a hard time believing Yale grads are going to have a hard time finding employment. Sure there will be some asked to defer, and a few unlucky folks who pick firms that go out of business between 1L and graduation, but do you really think we're going to see a bunch of Yalies killing each other over the chance to shine shoes at the New Haven Amtrak station?



I can never figure out if HYS (Harvard-Yale-Stanford) should be used in a singular or plural form. So let's just say: HYS is one of those rarities where you can get a job anywhere in the country because it's a national name. You say you went to H, Y, or S... and you're probably set for life.

But firms are being affected across the board and it doesn't matter where you went to school. All that matters is your firm's performance: does it have enough clients, cases, billable hours for everyone, are you pulling your weight, can clients afford to pay, etc. Dechert, Morgan Lewis, Locke Lord Bissell & Liddell, Wolf Block (no longer in existence), Pepper Hamilton, Orrick, Covington & Burling, Wickersham Taft, etc. etc. etc. If one of these firms is suffering and needs to lay off people, you're going to be affected no matter where you went to school. They're not going to say "but he went to HYS and we shouldn't let him go as opposed to the guy who went to a TTT." No, it'll be because of the bottom line. If one of these firms is suffering and needs to cut back its summer programme, you're going to be affected no matter where you went to school. They're not going to say "but he went to a T10 and therefore we should pick him over the guy who went to a T20." They're going to see whether they have the money to pay you for the summer or not.

davosdank
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:36 am

this i know for a fact is untrue, they will 9/10 times let the T20 go over HYS, or else, both

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lawgrl09
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby lawgrl09 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:36 am

davosdank wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
lawgrl09 wrote:To me "SoL" means "standard of living" so I don't know what you mean.


SoL=Shit Out of Luck.


Thanks for the clarification. I'm not saying don't go to law school and I'm not into the whole "if you can't get into a T10 or T20, don't bother going thing." Law schools are, for the most part, regional and their career networks are strongest in the city closest to them.

I'm saying that regardless of where you go, the market is going to be tough the next few years and it may not be any better for those of us in class of 2012. In a sense, everyone is out of luck until the market improves. So in answer to your question, don't go to a big rank school assuming that a BigLaw job will fall into your lap. Go to law school because you want to learn the law. Not because you want a fantastic lifestyle or can't think of something better to do.


not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading


That's fine. Whatever works for you. I've already written you off for the opposite reason.

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lawgrl09
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby lawgrl09 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:37 am

davosdank wrote:this i know for a fact is untrue, they will 9/10 times let the T20 go over HYS, or else, both


Then do me a favor... go to a T10/20, do really well, and then come back to this thread in three years and then tell me "in your face!" :wink:

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rayiner
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:38 am

davosdank wrote:not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading


T10 folks are probably relatively safe, but consider the math for a minute. Even in a good economy about 80% of T10 grads get biglaw jobs or prestigious clerkships. What happens when the number of job openings falls to a half or a third of previous levels? Bottom half in the lower-T10 could be an uncomfortable place to be. You'll probably still get a job, but it may be $80k in a secondary market...
Last edited by rayiner on Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

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lawgrl09
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby lawgrl09 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:40 am

As for me... I need to clean my apartment and write up some deposition summaries. So take care, davosdank, and exceed all expectations in this bad market.

davosdank
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:41 am

rayiner wrote:
davosdank wrote:not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading


T10 folks are probably relatively safe, but consider the math for a minute. Even in a good economy about 80% of T10 grads get biglaw jobs or prestigious clerkships. What happens when the number of job openings falls to a half or a third of previous levels? Bottom half in the lower-T10 could be a scary place to be...


i am having a convo w/someone about this right now, we both seem to think the bottom half won't suffer as much , it'll be the schools below the t10/t14 who feel it the most, as recruiting at those schools will decrease in order to maintain decent relations with the elite schools

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Cleareyes » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:44 am

rayiner wrote:
davosdank wrote:not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading


T10 folks are probably relatively safe, but consider the math for a minute. Even in a good economy about 80% of T10 grads get biglaw jobs or prestigious clerkships. What happens when the number of job openings falls to a half or a third of previous levels? Bottom half in the lower-T10 could be an uncomfortable place to be. You'll probably still get a job, but it may be $80k in a secondary market...


I'm not actually sure that necessarily follows. The thing is, not all those prestigious clerkships and biglaw jobs were going to T10 grads in boom times. There were just too many of them. That's why only the true dregs of those schools (the bottom of the class) were kept out. Do you think that the contraction will be roughly even across the board, or that it's more likely that the lower ranked schools will suffer disproportionately? I think that the T10ers might contract from 80 to 70 or even 65, but where I'd be really worried would be schools where the top 20% get big law, because I think they will be skimmed more thoroughly and may end up requiring top 10% or even 5%. I think that's where most of the contraction may happen. Just my thought based on my observations of how the elite often care for their own.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 10:55 am

Cleareyes wrote:
rayiner wrote:
davosdank wrote:not to be offensive, but after you said that you weren't a t10/t20 or bust person, i stopped reading


T10 folks are probably relatively safe, but consider the math for a minute. Even in a good economy about 80% of T10 grads get biglaw jobs or prestigious clerkships. What happens when the number of job openings falls to a half or a third of previous levels? Bottom half in the lower-T10 could be an uncomfortable place to be. You'll probably still get a job, but it may be $80k in a secondary market...


I'm not actually sure that necessarily follows. The thing is, not all those prestigious clerkships and biglaw jobs were going to T10 grads in boom times. There were just too many of them. That's why only the true dregs of those schools (the bottom of the class) were kept out. Do you think that the contraction will be roughly even across the board, or that it's more likely that the lower ranked schools will suffer disproportionately? I think that the T10ers might contract from 80 to 70 or even 65, but where I'd be really worried would be schools where the top 20% get big law, because I think they will be skimmed more thoroughly and may end up requiring top 10% or even 5%. I think that's where most of the contraction may happen. Just my thought based on my observations of how the elite often care for their own.


I think the contraction will be rather uneven. T20-30 schools that normally place 1/4-1/3 biglaw are going to take a huge haircut, probably to top 10% or so. T10 folks are still going to take a big haircut, though, because frankly there's 3,000 of them and there is a real possibility that the number of available job openings will fall well below that figure. I think a lot of 50-66 percentile T10 folks are going to be driven to secondary markets. Remember, a bunch of firms in the NLJ250 pay $100k or less, and the NLJ250 bottoms out at $80k.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:00 am

i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Cleareyes » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:04 am

rayiner wrote:I think the contraction will be rather uneven. T20-30 schools that normally place 1/4-1/3 biglaw are going to take a huge haircut, probably to top 10% or so. T10 folks are still going to take a big haircut, though, because frankly there's 3,000 of them and there is a real possibility that the number of available job openings will fall well below that figure. I think a lot of 50-66 percentile T10 folks are going to be driven to secondary markets. Remember, a bunch of firms in the NLJ250 pay $100k or less, and the NLJ250 bottoms out at $80k.


So if I understand you correctly

A) You believe that the third quartile of T10 students will have good options but not AS good options as they used to.

B) T10 schools are extremely hairy.

Correct?

sharp1321
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby sharp1321 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:09 am

davosdank wrote:i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)


i dont know if I agree. I think the non t14 biglaw exceptions come in the form of school affiliation, personal connection, etc. and I don't know if that type of exception is just disregarded as the market shrinks. (could be, if it wasn't that strong of a reason.. but i've seen alum do amazing things to help out grads of their school)
Last edited by sharp1321 on Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:10 am

sharp1321 wrote:
davosdank wrote:i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)


i dont know if I agree. I think the non t14 biglaw exceptions come in the form of school affiliation, personal connection, etc. and I don't know if that type of exception is just disregarded as the market shrinks. (could be, if it wasn's that strong of a reason.. but i've seen alum do amazing things to help out grads of their school)

disclaimer
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fixed

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:11 am

davosdank wrote:i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)


If the bulk of biglaw offers are T14s, that puts T14s in a worse position, though. If you have to cut the number of offers in half, and most of your offers were already to T14 folks, then a lot of T14 folks are going to have to go.

A lot of it really depends on how firms decide to behave. They basically have to shed 2 LS classes worth of people. They could either keep hiring normal, and fire a bunch of 2nd/3rd year associates, halt hiring entirely and keep their staff, or do something in-between. They'll probably be doing something in-between, but the more their behavior tends towards the latter extreme the more trouble even T14 grads are going to be in.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby sharp1321 » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:13 am

haha, my numbers aren't a secret.

nor am i after biglaw

just making the argument, which you can care to address or not

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:16 am

Cleareyes wrote:
rayiner wrote:I think the contraction will be rather uneven. T20-30 schools that normally place 1/4-1/3 biglaw are going to take a huge haircut, probably to top 10% or so. T10 folks are still going to take a big haircut, though, because frankly there's 3,000 of them and there is a real possibility that the number of available job openings will fall well below that figure. I think a lot of 50-66 percentile T10 folks are going to be driven to secondary markets. Remember, a bunch of firms in the NLJ250 pay $100k or less, and the NLJ250 bottoms out at $80k.


So if I understand you correctly

A) You believe that the third quartile of T10 students will have good options but not AS good options as they used to.

B) T10 schools are extremely hairy.

Correct?


I think in a good economy, third quartile at T10 was solid for major-market biglaw, and bottom quartile was dicey. I think in this economy, third quartile is going to be dicey, and bottom quartile is going to be :shock: . Third quartile will still probably get reasonable jobs ($80k+), but I think they'll be secondary-market biglaw.

What would really freak me out is to be bottom-quartile at a T10. Even in a good economy firms would rather hire top-quartile at a T25 than those folks. I don't think that will change ITE. I think GULC will create a LOT of doc reviewers ITE...

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:18 am

rayiner wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
rayiner wrote:I think the contraction will be rather uneven. T20-30 schools that normally place 1/4-1/3 biglaw are going to take a huge haircut, probably to top 10% or so. T10 folks are still going to take a big haircut, though, because frankly there's 3,000 of them and there is a real possibility that the number of available job openings will fall well below that figure. I think a lot of 50-66 percentile T10 folks are going to be driven to secondary markets. Remember, a bunch of firms in the NLJ250 pay $100k or less, and the NLJ250 bottoms out at $80k.


So if I understand you correctly

A) You believe that the third quartile of T10 students will have good options but not AS good options as they used to.

B) T10 schools are extremely hairy.

Correct?


I think in a good economy, third quartile at T10 was solid for major-market biglaw, and bottom quartile was dicey. I think in this economy, third quartile is going to be dicey, and bottom quartile is going to be :shock: . Third quartile will still probably get reasonable jobs ($80k+), but I think they'll be secondary-market biglaw.

What would really freak me out is to be bottom-quartile at a T10. Even in a good economy firms would rather hire top-quartile at a T25 than those folks. I don't think that will change ITE. I think GULC will create a LOT of doc reviewers ITE...


i respect and like you rayiner, but i must disagree ...

ITE, i feel they would rather have the t10 name than the t25 since they will be hiring less people

i feel like the upper 25% at t25's are going to suffer massively in comparison to the bottom quartile of a t10

edit: i do think GULC is going to create a LOT of doc reviewers though, but as a consequence of their HUGE class
Last edited by davosdank on Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

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rayiner
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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:21 am

davosdank wrote:
sharp1321 wrote:
davosdank wrote:i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)


i dont know if I agree. I think the non t14 biglaw exceptions come in the form of school affiliation, personal connection, etc. and I don't know if that type of exception is just disregarded as the market shrinks. (could be, if it wasn's that strong of a reason.. but i've seen alum do amazing things to help out grads of their school)

disclaimer
Highest LSAT: 160
GPA: 3.2



fixed


Wow, that's fantastically prickish...

But seriously, he makes a point. A lot of NLJ250 jobs are secondary-market biglaw. It is debatable whether those firms are suddenly going to go increase their T14 hiring proportion. Chicago biglaw firms might stop hiring UIUC grads in favor of Chicago/NU grads, but is a Cali biglaw firm going to stop hiring UCLA grads in favor of Georgetown grads? Are Texas biglaw firms going to shut out UT grads? Are southern biglaw firms going to shut out Vandy grads?

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:23 am

rayiner wrote:
davosdank wrote:
sharp1321 wrote:
davosdank wrote:i have to think the t10 will take less of a butchering than that man, i really see non t14 biglaw offers as teh exception, not the rule, and that exception will likely dwindle, but that does insulate the t10/t14ers quite a bit (i'm borrowing this from another poster)


i dont know if I agree. I think the non t14 biglaw exceptions come in the form of school affiliation, personal connection, etc. and I don't know if that type of exception is just disregarded as the market shrinks. (could be, if it wasn's that strong of a reason.. but i've seen alum do amazing things to help out grads of their school)

disclaimer
Highest LSAT: 160
GPA: 3.2



fixed


Wow, that's fantastically prickish...

But seriously, he makes a point. A lot of NLJ250 jobs are secondary-market biglaw. It is debatable whether those firms are suddenly going to go increase their T14 hiring proportion. Chicago biglaw firms might stop hiring UIUC grads in favor of Chicago/NU grads, but is a Cali biglaw firm going to stop hiring UCLA grads in favor of Georgetown grads? Are Texas biglaw firms going to shut out UT grads? Are southern biglaw firms going to shut out Vandy grads?


I'm not meaning to say t14, i mean to say t10, if you change it to that, yes, this is what i believe, but like you say, I think GULC will suffer more than UT and UCLA and Vandy

those are the exceptions as they are t14 in their regions IMO
Last edited by davosdank on Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby Cleareyes » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:24 am

rayiner wrote:
Cleareyes wrote:
rayiner wrote:I think the contraction will be rather uneven. T20-30 schools that normally place 1/4-1/3 biglaw are going to take a huge haircut, probably to top 10% or so. T10 folks are still going to take a big haircut, though, because frankly there's 3,000 of them and there is a real possibility that the number of available job openings will fall well below that figure. I think a lot of 50-66 percentile T10 folks are going to be driven to secondary markets. Remember, a bunch of firms in the NLJ250 pay $100k or less, and the NLJ250 bottoms out at $80k.


So if I understand you correctly

A) You believe that the third quartile of T10 students will have good options but not AS good options as they used to.

B) T10 schools are extremely hairy.

Correct?


I think in a good economy, third quartile at T10 was solid for major-market biglaw, and bottom quartile was dicey. I think in this economy, third quartile is going to be dicey, and bottom quartile is going to be :shock: . Third quartile will still probably get reasonable jobs ($80k+), but I think they'll be secondary-market biglaw.

What would really freak me out is to be bottom-quartile at a T10. Even in a good economy firms would rather hire top-quartile at a T25 than those folks. I don't think that will change ITE. I think GULC will create a LOT of doc reviewers ITE...


And how high up does this go? Are we going to see a bunch of Harvard doc reviewers?

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:29 am

rayiner, what i should have said is, t20's won't get biglaw almost at all in order to provide t10's/regional t14esque's with jobs, that's what i see as likely, you don't see this as plausible?

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby rayiner » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:29 am

davosdank wrote:i respect and like you rayiner, but i must disagree ...

ITE, i feel they would rather have the t10 name than the t25 since they will be hiring less people

i feel like the upper 25% at t25's are going to suffer massively in comparison to the bottom quartile of a t10


Law firms have a calculus and the value of an associate is a function of his class rank and his school rank. Top quartile at T25 is above bottom quartile at T10, as evidenced by the fact that the former was in pretty good shape for biglaw in a good economy while the latter was not. As hiring contracts, firms are simply going to go less deep into their absolute rank-ordering. I don't really see how the economy would change the relative positions of the two groups in that ordering.

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Re: RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here!

Postby davosdank » Sat Apr 04, 2009 11:31 am

rayiner wrote:
davosdank wrote:i respect and like you rayiner, but i must disagree ...

ITE, i feel they would rather have the t10 name than the t25 since they will be hiring less people

i feel like the upper 25% at t25's are going to suffer massively in comparison to the bottom quartile of a t10


Law firms have a calculus and the value of an associate is a function of his class rank and his school rank. Top quartile at T25 is above bottom quartile at T10, as evidenced by the fact that the former was in pretty good shape for biglaw in a good economy while the latter was not. As hiring contracts, firms are simply going to go less deep into their absolute rank-ordering. I don't really see how the economy would change the relative positions of the two groups in that ordering.


the bottom quartile at most t10's could get biglaw, at UVA - 50 percent of the bottom quartile got V20 the past 2 years (90/roughly 180), this won't continue for that prestegious of firm, but that's better than the top of t20/30's could get w/o great softs

therefore i say your logic doesn't hold up to recent statistics




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