RECESSION PANIC MEGAPOST: Bad economy threads go here! Forum

[kevinm]

Why the real questions? I'm practicing for my future career as a sound byte journalist. It's the wave of the future dude.

haha, wave.

[RVP11]

I understand there's been deferrels, etc., and that there will be some backup, but can you really say the class of 2012 and 2013 are screwed, considering it's now, um, 2009? We know the economy's bad. Do you think it's looking better with a bachelor's degree?

Less debt. You'll likely make the same amount in the long run. You do realize that many lawyers ten years out earn as little as 40k? I make 37k with a bachelor's from my state school.

FWIW, UVA did a study on its graduates from around 1990 or so and found that ~20 years out their graduates had a median annual household income of $250k, with around 10% of graduates reporting $1m or more in annual household income. So yes, a lot of law grads make $40k, and yes, times are different, but $40k is extremely far from reality for most graduates from top schools over the last few decades.

[frank_the_tank]

I'm not really smart enough

I think I found your problem.

what makes you think you're smarter? everyone in law school is very, very smart.

lol!

[0 and 16]

Well, there are still jobs out there to be had, it's just that the number has severely shrunk. I THINK that there are enough out there for the folks in the T-14 to get by, but my best advice would be to talk with people at the schools, and by "people" I mean the students.

It's really more like a T-3 game these days.

[rayiner]

Regarding the backlog issue, I don't buy it. If you look at the last recession, law firms cut heavily for two years before binging the third year when the economy started to recover. The way the associate pipeline is structured, law firms have a lot of incentive to hire as many fresh 2Ls each cycle as they can instead of hiring laid off associates or 3Ls, etc.

Class of 2011 is in a somewhat unique situation because firms overhired for the last class and ended up deferring everyone in C/O 2010. Most of these deferrals should either have started work or been cut loose by the time C/O 2012 enters the market. That doesn't mean C/O 2012 and C/O 2013 are going to be peachy --- demand will probably remain down and growth will be minimal, but rather it means that hiring for C/O 2011 is likely to be the low water-mark.

[CE2JD]

BIGLAW IS DEAD

[singularity]

Legal services: -3.4%



--ImageRemoved--

[ruleser]

Um, hate to feed the worry, but this is just the beginning. Next year we will be thinking this year wasn't so bad. This is collapse. Half a decade to begin the rebuild - I'm talking general economy, not law in particular, but of course law will suffer the same. 25%+ unemployment, collapse of the dollar, beyond what the Great Depression was.

Just for the record, I've been writing about this for years and years, told of this downturn specifically in 2005. It's not ending anytime soon, because nothing has been done to address the causes, which are not mortgage loans - those were just a symptom.

[kevinm]

Um, hate to feed the worry, but this is just the beginning. Next year we will be thinking this year wasn't so bad. This is collapse. Half a decade to begin the rebuild - I'm talking general economy, not law in particular, but of course law will suffer the same. 25%+ unemployment, collapse of the dollar, beyond what the Great Depression was.

Just for the record, I've been writing about this for years and years, told of this downturn specifically in 2005. It's not ending anytime soon, because nothing has been done to address the causes, which are not mortgage loans - those were just a symptom.

If you need anymore tinfoil for your head armor, I have some that you can borrow.

[ruleser]

Um, hate to feed the worry, but this is just the beginning. Next year we will be thinking this year wasn't so bad. This is collapse. Half a decade to begin the rebuild - I'm talking general economy, not law in particular, but of course law will suffer the same. 25%+ unemployment, collapse of the dollar, beyond what the Great Depression was.

Just for the record, I've been writing about this for years and years, told of this downturn specifically in 2005. It's not ending anytime soon, because nothing has been done to address the causes, which are not mortgage loans - those were just a symptom.

If you need anymore tinfoil for your head armor, I have some that you can borrow.

When I wrote in 2003 that the recovery was not recovery but a prep for disaster people said what you just did, and when I wrote in 2005 that the depression/collapse had begun and to get out of the markets right then, more said the same. Everything has played out exactly as I've written - I haven't had to change a single prediction or article - instead everyone like you changes to adjust to it playing out.

You can read for yourself if you wish - The Moderate Independent

I don't want it to be true either, I just want to go to law school and have it be like it was. But this is real. This is unprecedented - for America; it is par for the course in the history of nations. How great is Greece now? Rome? How is the USSR doing - oh yeah, that doesn't exist anymore. Bad economic choices = collapse. It's real. It's hear. I'd love to be wrong. But I haven't been yet, and I've been writing about this for more than half a decade.

[RVP11]

Um, hate to feed the worry, but this is just the beginning. Next year we will be thinking this year wasn't so bad. This is collapse. Half a decade to begin the rebuild - I'm talking general economy, not law in particular, but of course law will suffer the same. 25%+ unemployment, collapse of the dollar, beyond what the Great Depression was.

Just for the record, I've been writing about this for years and years, told of this downturn specifically in 2005. It's not ending anytime soon, because nothing has been done to address the causes, which are not mortgage loans - those were just a symptom.

Sorry, but this sounds like you've gone off the deep end and are actually hoping that this is what comes to pass, if only to prove yourself right.

[Dtackpat75]

Um, hate to feed the worry, but this is just the beginning. Next year we will be thinking this year wasn't so bad. This is collapse. Half a decade to begin the rebuild - I'm talking general economy, not law in particular, but of course law will suffer the same. 25%+ unemployment, collapse of the dollar, beyond what the Great Depression was.

Just for the record, I've been writing about this for years and years, told of this downturn specifically in 2005. It's not ending anytime soon, because nothing has been done to address the causes, which are not mortgage loans - those were just a symptom.

If you need anymore tinfoil for your head armor, I have some that you can borrow.

When I wrote in 2003 that the recovery was not recovery but a prep for disaster people said what you just did, and when I wrote in 2005 that the depression/collapse had begun and to get out of the markets right then, more said the same. Everything has played out exactly as I've written - I haven't had to change a single prediction or article - instead everyone like you changes to adjust to it playing out.

You can read for yourself if you wish - The Moderate Independent

I don't want it to be true either, I just want to go to law school and have it be like it was. But this is real. This is unprecedented - for America; it is par for the course in the history of nations. How great is Greece now? Rome? How is the USSR doing - oh yeah, that doesn't exist anymore. Bad economic choices = collapse. It's real. It's hear. I'd love to be wrong. But I haven't been yet, and I've been writing about this for more than half a decade.

So are a millionaire obviously because if you saw this coming than you shorted all the banks and made $$$. You probably also knew that when gas was at $150/barrell it was on its way to $40 so you shorted that as well. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[jschuyler]

ruleser is actually james howard kunstler

http://kunstler.com/blog/

[rayiner]

Everyone probably thought that those predicting the fall of Rome were kooks until it actually happened. Of course, kooks probably predicted the fall of Rome hundreds of times before they got it right...

In this particular case, I'm skeptical of the fact that most projections regarding the demise of the US rest on financial arguments. Frankly, I'm a nuts and bolts kind of guy --- I think the economy has a whole is a lot more resilient to fluctuations in the financial industry than the self-aggrandizing finance guys like to believe.

If you look at the fall of civilizations, there were nuts and bolts reasons behind the collapse. The middle eastern empires fell due to environmental crisis. Rome fell due to a complete over-extension of their military power. Much of the real suffering during the Great Depression was the product of the Dust Bowl gutting agricultural production in the heartland. Europe collapsed after WWII because a huge fraction of their production had been wasted blowing each other up, and much of their core labor force had been lost in the war.

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

[Dtackpat75]

Everyone probably thought that those predicting the fall of Rome were kooks until it actually happened. Of course, kooks probably predicted the fall of Rome hundreds of times before they got it right...

In this particular case, I'm skeptical of the fact that most projections regarding the demise of the US rest on financial arguments. Frankly, I'm a nuts and bolts kind of guy --- I think the economy has a whole is a lot more resilient to fluctuations in the financial industry than the self-aggrandizing finance guys like to believe.

If you look at the fall of civilizations, there were nuts and bolts reasons behind the collapse. The middle eastern empires fell due to environmental crisis. Rome fell due to a complete over-extension of their military power. Much of the real suffering during the Great Depression was the product of the Dust Bowl gutting agricultural production in the heartland. Europe collapsed after WWII because a huge fraction of their production had been wasted blowing each other up, and much of their core labor force had been lost in the war.

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

This is a response I can appreciate.

[CE2JD]

The popularity of the Jonas brothers is the beginning of the end of the American empire.

[Lily]

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

Have you ever read Boomsday by Christopher Buckley? You might like it. He's the guy who wrote Thank You for Smoking. That's what it's about (kind of). It's a very fun read.

[stab master arson]

Have you ever read Boomsday by Christopher Buckley? You might like it. He's the guy who wrote Thank You for Smoking. That's what it's about (kind of). It's a very fun read.

she politely suggests on her personal blog that Baby Boomers be given government incentives to kill themselves by age seventy-five.

Holy shit, it's like the author has been cribbing from the manifesto I've been working on.

MUST READ.

[ruleser]

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

What's happening has little to do with those. It is free trade, outsourcing, downsizing, and big box stores - main street is out of business, factories are gone, service jobs are now in India - Americans haven't made ends meet in a generation, have only gotten by by using credit. Now, like an obese person who finally got diabetes/heart disease, the gig is up.

Nothing has been done to address these things. You can be smart/smug, but just sit and watch your chosen profession crumble - as all others are. This recession is just the beginning. You need a tinfoil hat if you pretend otherwise.

[rayiner]

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

What's happening has little to do with those. It is free trade, outsourcing, downsizing, and big box stores - main street is out of business, factories are gone, service jobs are now in India - Americans haven't made ends meet in a generation, have only gotten by by using credit. Now, like an obese person who finally got diabetes/heart disease, the gig is up.

There is no way to have a sensible debate with someone who exaggerates so much and makes references to irrelevant analogies.

[ruleser]

I don't think derivatives and obscure financial instruments are going to be the undoing of the US economy. If anything is going to end the American Empire, it's going to be the demographic crisis caused by the retirement of the baby boomer generation.

What's happening has little to do with those. It is free trade, outsourcing, downsizing, and big box stores - main street is out of business, factories are gone, service jobs are now in India - Americans haven't made ends meet in a generation, have only gotten by by using credit. Now, like an obese person who finally got diabetes/heart disease, the gig is up.

There is no way to have a sensible debate with someone who exaggerates so much and makes references to irrelevant analogies.

Sorry if this is over your head - there is nothing irrelevant about the analogy - people have overconsumed, so are obese with debt. And this is not exaggeration - a money manager with a big firm (since bankrupt) laid it out plainly about a year ago - they know what is going on - he said the debt level dwarfs what it was before the Depression. People said what you are when I said in 2005 get out of the market now, the crash is about to begin... talk to me in a year.

[Bronte]

Sorry if this is over your head - there is nothing irrelevant about the analogy - people have overconsumed, so are obese with debt. And this is not exaggeration - a money manager with a big firm (since bankrupt) laid it out plainly about a year ago - they know what is going on - he said the debt level dwarfs what it was before the Depression. People said what you are when I said in 2005 get out of the market now, the crash is about to begin... talk to me in a year.

I'm a noobie, but one thing I've learned: Don't address prolific posters with the phrase "Sorry if this is over your head."

The whole "talk to me in a year" banter is going to blow up in the face of every conspiracy theorist (yourself included) who has predicted the Apocalypse. The economy has taken a hit (unfortunately for your theory, the Dow is back over 9000 and employment numbers have turned around), but most of us have enough calm and common sense not to cry wolf. Shit is bad, but the end is not neigh. Get a grip.

[06072010]

Sorry if this is over your head - there is nothing irrelevant about the analogy - people have overconsumed, so are obese with debt. And this is not exaggeration - a money manager with a big firm (since bankrupt) laid it out plainly about a year ago - they know what is going on - he said the debt level dwarfs what it was before the Depression. People said what you are when I said in 2005 get out of the market now, the crash is about to begin... talk to me in a year.

I'm a noobie, but one thing I've learned: Don't address prolific posters with the phrase "Sorry if this is over your head."

The whole "talk to me in a year" banter is going to blow up in the face of every conspiracy theorist (yourself included) who has predicted the Apocalypse. The economy has taken a hit (unfortunately for your theory, the Dow is back over 9000 and employment numbers have turned around), but most of us have enough calm and common sense not to cry wolf. Shit is bad, but the end is not neigh. Get a grip.

Sorry if this is over your head, Bronte, but the economy is worse than a goldfish in a mineshaft sucking on a lolipop. Talk to me in a year. You'll be singing a different tune. To use an analogy you might be able to wrap your feeble mind around, the economy is like a crackwhore hoolahooping sideways down a freeway. And you can quote me on that, buddy.

[Bronte]

Sorry if this is over your head, Bronte, but the economy is worse than a goldfish in a mineshaft sucking on a lolipop. Talk to me in a year. You'll be singing a different tune. To use an analogy you might be able to wrap your feeble mind around, the economy is like a crackwhore hoolahooping sideways down a freeway. And you can quote me on that, buddy.

Get back to me with some content. (I like numbers, etc., not bullshit.)

[06072010]

Sorry if this is over your head, Bronte, but the economy is worse than a goldfish in a mineshaft sucking on a lollipop. Talk to me in a year. You'll be singing a different tune. To use an analogy you might be able to wrap your feeble mind around, the economy is like a crackwhore hoolahooping sideways down a freeway. And you can quote me on that, buddy.

Get back to me with some content. (I like numbers, etc., not bullshit.)

I'm sorry somebody killed your sense of humor.