Law School Predictor: The Thread"

(Applications Advice, Letters of Recommendation . . . )
User avatar
bumblebeetoona
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2008 10:11 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby bumblebeetoona » Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:00 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
bumblebeetoona wrote:
YCrevolution wrote:
Lyov Myshkin wrote:i dont see any colors.. am i using this right? where's the green and red and orange and stuff?

It should work in Firefox (recommended) or IE (special thanks to CyLaw for the code for both browsers). I haven't tested it in Safari.


Color certainly works in Firefox. Especially the color red.

I don't mean to be mean, but I definitely lol'ed.


Ha, that's okay, you can laugh :). I don't event want to go to a T14.

HuckFinn587
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2009 4:00 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby HuckFinn587 » Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:04 pm

although i totally agree that you drop alot in percentage chance for acceptance in this version

am i the only one who thinks that this version is WAY more accurate?
the other version had me 'strong consider' at Yale which is to be honest completely unrealistic

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:07 pm

HuckFinn587 wrote:although i totally agree that you drop alot in percentage chance for acceptance in this version

am i the only one who thinks that this version is WAY more accurate?
the other version had me 'strong consider' at Yale which is to be honest completely unrealistic


yeah it's way better. way too overly optimistic before.

User avatar
Iuvo
Posts: 99
Joined: Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:38 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Iuvo » Sun Oct 04, 2009 9:42 pm

This version seems far more realistic.

User avatar
anothernancydrew
Posts: 112
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2009 5:16 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby anothernancydrew » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:06 pm

I'm a little confused with the update...

Overall, the chances seem more realistic, but there are some strange cases: At WashU, it shows 'weak consider' with 44%, but BU shows 'consider' with only 31%. In the same vein, Cornell says 'deny' with 26% whereas Emory shows 'weak consider' with 17%. Is this just a kink in the system that will be ironed out, or is there something about the new version that I don't understand?

Thanks!

User avatar
Helmholtz
Posts: 4394
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2008 1:48 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Helmholtz » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:06 pm

anothernancydrew wrote:I'm a little confused with the update...

Overall, the chances seem more realistic, but there are some strange cases: At WashU, it shows 'weak consider' with 44%, but BU shows 'consider' with only 31%. In the same vein, Cornell says 'deny' with 26% whereas Emory shows 'weak consider' with 17%. Is this just a kink in the system that will be ironed out, or is there something about the new version that I don't understand?

Thanks!


It might have something to do with yield rates? I dunno.

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:12 pm

..

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:23 pm

YCrevolution wrote:*Your predictions are also forward-looking in the sense that they try to predict your chances relative to the 09-10 applicant pool (versus the 07-08, Class of 2011, applicant pool).


that's pretty awesome. but how do you do that exactly? do you compute an X expected rise in medians?

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:30 pm

..

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:31 pm

..

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:42 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
YCrevolution wrote:
Lyov Myshkin wrote:
YCrevolution wrote:*Your predictions are also forward-looking in the sense that they try to predict your chances relative to the 09-10 applicant pool (versus the 07-08, Class of 2011, applicant pool).


that's pretty awesome. but how do you do that exactly? do you compute an X expected rise in medians?

:oops: I didn't mean for that to make me sound smarter than I am or for LSP to sound more intelligent that it is. For the most part, it's just a combination of comparing predictions against a matriculating class's data (versus an admitted class) and the boost algorithms which try to come up with an appropriate boost for current applicants. I try to keep an eye on LSN data to make sure things aren't too drastically different (I'm working on a way to account for LSAT and GPA walls right now, too, along with in-state residency.)

One of the reasons why LSP tends to remain a bit on the pessimistic side, is that I still have yet to figure out a way to properly account for the differences between matriculating students (in this case, from class of 2011) and current applicants without LSP becoming wildly and broadly overly-optimistic.

Also, the lesson I learned from today is that I'm probably going to have TLS-exclusive beta versions of new releases from now on.


awesome.

at a certain point though, shouldn't rises in medians stabilize? i mean, after all, there is a cap on number potential.

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 10:56 pm

..

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:00 pm

really?? which schools?

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:01 pm

..

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:03 pm

that's pretty crazy..

User avatar
Lmao Zedong
Posts: 381
Joined: Sat Feb 28, 2009 12:10 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lmao Zedong » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:24 am

granted, i'm saying this as someone whose GPA is the dead weight holding back my LSAT, but

it really is laughable how many 3.8+s there are around. it seems like it just doesn't mean anything anymore. thank god high LSAT scores are actually in short supply, because good GPAs sure as hell aren't

User avatar
Lyov Myshkin
Posts: 232
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Lyov Myshkin » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:24 am

GargamelITT wrote:granted, i'm saying this as someone whose GPA is the dead weight holding back my LSAT, but

it really is laughable how many 3.8+s there are around. it seems like it just doesn't mean anything anymore. thank god high LSAT scores are actually in short supply, because good GPAs sure as hell aren't


hehehe.. :D

roadkilllaw
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:07 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby roadkilllaw » Mon Oct 05, 2009 1:34 am

Thanks YC! Amazing as usual :)

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Oct 05, 2009 10:09 am

..

User avatar
ruleser
Posts: 870
Joined: Sun Dec 07, 2008 2:41 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby ruleser » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:13 pm

Tested it out today - seems pretty solid now. Nice work... now here's hoping for a nice large number to plug in there...

LSATfromNC
Posts: 735
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:29 pm

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby LSATfromNC » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:21 pm

YCrevolution, in your opinion, what percentage of a persons applications should be reaches, targets or safeties?

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Oct 05, 2009 9:38 pm

..

User avatar
nygrrrl
Posts: 4948
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2009 1:01 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby nygrrrl » Mon Oct 05, 2009 10:33 pm

.

roadkilllaw
Posts: 72
Joined: Thu Jul 23, 2009 2:07 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby roadkilllaw » Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:21 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
LSATfromNC wrote:YCrevolution, in your opinion, what percentage of a persons applications should be reaches, targets or safeties?

Law School Predictor wrote:For applicants who will be using LSP to help them decide which schools to apply to, I suggest applying to at least a few “Weak Consider” schools. Overall, the strategies I’m about to list are on the aggressive side, and applicants whose primary concern is just to get into any law school should probably be a bit more conservative in their approach. These strategies are also designed with the goal of getting applicants into the highest-ranked law school, and applicants who want to work in a specific region or who are seeking significant scholarship money should adjust their strategy accordingly. It’s also important to keep in mind that state residents often get a boost at their respective state school(s).

If you’re applying to five (5) schools, I recommend:
- One (1) Admit
- One (1) Strong Consider
- Two (2) Consider
- One (1) Weak Consider
- Zero (0) Deny

If you’re applying to ten (10) schools, I recommend:
- One (1) Admit
- Two (2) Strong Consider
- Three (3) Consider
- Three (3) Weak Consider
- One (1) Deny

If you’re applying to twenty (20) schools, I recommend:
- Three (3) Admit
- Five (5) Strong Consider
- Five (5) Consider
- Five (5) Weak Consider
- Two (2) Deny


If you want to be more on the conservative side, I would shift schools from the Deny/Weak Consider categories into the Consider and Strong Consider categories. Also, LSP predictions can be off (for example: Berkeley) and doesn't take really impressive softs or state residency into account, so if you think you have a better chance at a school than LSP predicts, adjust your application strategy accordingly.

In reach/target/safety terms with ~10 schools (if less than 10, become more conservative, if more than 10, become more aggressive):
Reach: 20%
Target: 60%
Safety: 20%


Do you stand by this for extreme splitters too? (High LSAT, extremely low gpa)

User avatar
YCrevolution
Posts: 4714
Joined: Sat Oct 25, 2008 1:25 am

Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Oct 05, 2009 11:23 pm

..




Return to “Law School Admissions Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], kingpin101, rk42, WamBamThankYouMaam, Yahoo [Bot] and 8 guests