Law School Predictor: The Thread"

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CyLaw
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby CyLaw » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:34 am

lsatguy wrote:I put in the LSAT score and GPA and it said strong consider for a school. I then played around with it and put the same GPA and an LSAT score of 1 point higher and it moved the same school that was at strong consider down to consider... what gives?


What numbers and school cause this. PM YCrevolution if you don't want to post them.

CyLaw
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby CyLaw » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:38 am

I found some numbers that cause this style of effect.

3.0 / 169 is Strong Consider to Cornell
3.0 / 170 is Consider to Cornell

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Drew2010
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Drew2010 » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:38 am

my 174 3.36 ED NYU gives me a strong consider at Stanford.. I think that is wrong

Edit: And 176 3.36 moves Stanford down to consider..

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:44 am

..

Pearalegal
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Pearalegal » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:45 am

Yaaaaay. Thanks.

lsatguy
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby lsatguy » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:48 am

YCrevolution wrote:While I'm working on a special check field to try and prevent this from happening, here's what I bet is happening:

You've probably triggered the splitter calculations. While it's complicated how the splitter algorithm works (see release for more details), it essentially reweights the LSAT and GPA (changing the LSAT/GPA ratio, although this is not shown to the user). For a very limited number of applicants, there is a one point LSAT range (I think it averages 1.3 or 1.4 LSAT points, but people can't get a fraction of an LSAT point) where your prediction might get worse because since the formula it's using to determine your prediction takes into account splitter-ness while the LSAT one point score below does not.

This was an issue a few versions ago, too. Unfortunately, since I overhauled the splitter predictions; I forgot about the whole thing until yesterday, so the fix will be for a future version. I'll try and get one up soon.


Okay cool, thanks! Yes, I was a splitter and the school was Cornell. The new version is very cool still with the colors...

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gwn
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby gwn » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:53 am

yay colours!

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:55 am

..

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ruleser
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby ruleser » Sun Oct 04, 2009 11:57 am

Thanks for updating with splitter info since I am one - but I'm not sure if it's too optimistic now - if it isn't, that's great. I do much better at all the high ranked schools, like Berkeley, etc. - a lot of it seems possible, since yes, the higher you get above 75th the more it means, but some may be off - like Yale, once I put in 178 for LSAT, it went from Deny to Strong Consider, even though my GPA is 3.23. A couple other GPA type schools, like Berkeley, maybe UCLA, maybe Harvard it might be overly optimistic, or not. I may do a test later and do some predicts and compare to LSN. Maybe that is correct that there are so few 178's that Yale wants them badly. I'd love for the new predictions to be right, just wanted to throw this out there.

EDIT: Addt'l note - when I then put 180 for Yale instead of 178, it actually came down from strong consider to consider.

hiro86
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby hiro86 » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:04 pm

ruleser wrote:Thanks for updating with splitter info since I am one - but I'm not sure if it's too optimistic now - if it isn't, that's great. I do much better at all the high ranked schools, like Berkeley, etc. - a lot of it seems possible, since yes, the higher you get above 75th the more it means, but some may be off - like Yale, once I put in 178 for LSAT, it went from Deny to Strong Consider, even though my GPA is 3.23. A couple other GPA type schools, like Berkeley, maybe UCLA, maybe Harvard it might be overly optimistic, or not. I may do a test later and do some predicts and compare to LSN. Maybe that is correct that there are so few 178's that Yale wants them badly. I'd love for the new predictions to be right, just wanted to throw this out there.

As a general rule, LSP is not a great indicator for HYS. That is because these schools more or less have GPA cutoffs, below which it doesn't matter how high your LSAT is. Also, Yale and Stanford obviously are not as number based as most law schools.

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ruleser
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby ruleser » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:07 pm

hiro86 wrote:
ruleser wrote:Thanks for updating with splitter info since I am one - but I'm not sure if it's too optimistic now - if it isn't, that's great. I do much better at all the high ranked schools, like Berkeley, etc. - a lot of it seems possible, since yes, the higher you get above 75th the more it means, but some may be off - like Yale, once I put in 178 for LSAT, it went from Deny to Strong Consider, even though my GPA is 3.23. A couple other GPA type schools, like Berkeley, maybe UCLA, maybe Harvard it might be overly optimistic, or not. I may do a test later and do some predicts and compare to LSN. Maybe that is correct that there are so few 178's that Yale wants them badly. I'd love for the new predictions to be right, just wanted to throw this out there.

As a general rule, LSP is not a great indicator for HYS. That is because these schools more or less have GPA cutoffs, below which it doesn't matter how high your LSAT is. Also, Yale and Stanford obviously are not as number based as most law schools.

Makes sense - those are mainly the schools it might be a bit off at (when I put 173/3.23 at Stanford it said consider, which maybe it's worth an ap, but I'd think it's weak consider at best) But for the other schools it does seem maybe more accurate possibly... I just wonder if there needs to be an adjustment for minimum GPA/below 25th GPA to offset some of the +75th LSAT data that was just put in...

fatihsultan
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby fatihsultan » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:11 pm

quick usage question. If I'm an HYP undergrad, is it worth it to tack on x amount to GPA to acct for any boost (if there is one)?

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:14 pm

..

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:17 pm

..

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:22 pm

..

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Reinhardt
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Reinhardt » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:25 pm

Edited out
Last edited by Reinhardt on Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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ruleser
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby ruleser » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:27 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
YCrevolution wrote:"Captain, we have a firing solution."

I'll upload the fix in a few minutes, and then ask for feedback. Since I haven't extensively tested the fix, the link will only be available through TLS and will be temporary.

Link (LinkRemoved) to patched version. Please provide feedback in this thread.

Seems like you fixed whatever it was - seems pretty on now. None of the issues previously mentioned. Great work, I'll keep playing around with it...

mikeh915
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby mikeh915 » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:37 pm

if you put in 3.54 gpa and play around with 176-180 it gets really crazy for top 6 or so from the link

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:42 pm

..

citydweller09
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby citydweller09 » Sun Oct 04, 2009 12:44 pm

Is there any way that in the next update, you could account for specific URM status (Black vs. Hispanic vs. Native American) and possibly gender? LSP seems like a useful tool, but I'm an AA woman and it's basically telling me the opposite of everything I've ever heard about my T14 chances, from chances threads and my actual adviser. (Unless I'm just being hypersensitive and all those people lied to me - :? ) But yeah, from everything I've read, the boost AA applicants get is greater than that of Hispanic applicants, and possibly less than that of Native American applicants (unless you're an AA male, in which case you're the holy grail), so it seems like conflating the 3 leaves a lot of room for error.

In any event, thanks for creating this!

jd-mba
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby jd-mba » Sun Oct 04, 2009 1:22 pm

Yes, 15% chance is indicated as "strong consider" for Berkeley.

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Haven
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Haven » Sun Oct 04, 2009 1:34 pm

I'm noticing a few "bugs" but I'm unsure if the stats are taking splitter preference into account.
3.3/175 does a few strange things (stanford?)

LSP is a great resource though, and I love the colors :)

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Foch
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Foch » Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:23 pm

Omg, thanks YC. You're a doll.

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Helmholtz
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Helmholtz » Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:44 pm

Yeah, the newest update definitely makes things look bleaker for me. Here's hoping YCR doesn't know what he's doing.

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Foch
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Re: Law School Predictor: Version 2.6 released Oct. 04, 2009

Postby Foch » Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:46 pm

Helmholtz wrote:Yeah, the newest update definitely makes things look bleaker for me. Here's hoping YCR doesn't know what he's doing.

Yeah, I suddenly find myself wondering why I was thanking him a few minutes ago. I want gratification and positive reinforcement, not this trash.




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