Law School Predictor: The Thread"

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OperaSoprano
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby OperaSoprano » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:48 am

vanwinkle wrote:
OperaSoprano wrote:Unusual majors unite!

Most people on TLS will scoff at this, but there is something I refer to as the interesting applicant bump. This is also a reasonable descriptor for me. I do NOT have great softs, but, by virtue of my academic background, I was unique, or near unique, in the applicant pool. It should be noted that this cuts both ways. I was convinced that I was toxic until the head of my own admissions office told me otherwise.

It could have been something else in your background; It could have been nearly anything. If you're thrilled, though, UVA did it right.


Oh, I probably had the most interesting application ever. My softs were extreme. The problem is that while I had some awesomely unique things to talk about (a sleeping disorder that was only discovered and treated two years ago), I also had some huge negatives (withdrawing from college three times to avoid failing classes, a semester with two F's, inability to hold down a job for a while, etc.). These are all things that went into my application, too. I just talked about everything, in a "hopefully someone will bet on me in spite of the bad school record" kind of way.

I honestly wasn't expecting T14 schools to be the "betting" type though. I mean, they're bombarded by so many applicants with much stronger GPAs? Maybe it was a "film major bump". :wink:



It's gotta be a bigger bump than the vaunted "fashion merchandising major" bump. :D

I had a disability to talk about, too.

It sounds like you were truly memorable, though, and the bet was full of win.

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Capercaillie
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby Capercaillie » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:07 am

OperaSoprano wrote:
It's gotta be a bigger bump than the vaunted "fashion merchandising major" bump. :D

I had a disability to talk about, too.

It sounds like you were truly memorable, though, and the bet was full of win.


Oh, for Christ's sake, woman! Let me guess, you're one of those "self-starters," aren't you?

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vanwinkle
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby vanwinkle » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:10 am

OperaSoprano wrote:It's gotta be a bigger bump than the vaunted "fashion merchandising major" bump. :D

I had a disability to talk about, too.

It sounds like you were truly memorable, though, and the bet was full of win.


Fashion merchandising? No wonder you're so eager to live in NYC! :D

For me, "the bet" almost didn't even happen. I only even applied to UVA because I was given a fee waiver! I'd never heard of the school otherwise, and was like, "What? They're top 10? I guess I'll apply for free, sure." I only really looked hard at the school after applying, and started getting interested then. If it hadn't been for that fee waiver, I'd be planning on attending Boston College right now.

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OperaSoprano
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby OperaSoprano » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:24 am

Capercaillie wrote:
OperaSoprano wrote:
It's gotta be a bigger bump than the vaunted "fashion merchandising major" bump. :D

I had a disability to talk about, too.

It sounds like you were truly memorable, though, and the bet was full of win.


Oh, for Christ's sake, woman! Let me guess, you're one of those "self-starters," aren't you?


Unfortunately not. If my classmates hadn't helped me, I would've been very much SOL.

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OperaSoprano
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby OperaSoprano » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:36 am

vanwinkle wrote:
OperaSoprano wrote:It's gotta be a bigger bump than the vaunted "fashion merchandising major" bump. :D

I had a disability to talk about, too.

It sounds like you were truly memorable, though, and the bet was full of win.


Fashion merchandising? No wonder you're so eager to live in NYC! :D

For me, "the bet" almost didn't even happen. I only even applied to UVA because I was given a fee waiver! I'd never heard of the school otherwise, and was like, "What? They're top 10? I guess I'll apply for free, sure." I only really looked hard at the school after applying, and started getting interested then. If it hadn't been for that fee waiver, I'd be planning on attending Boston College right now.


:shock: Damn, and I thought I was living a charmed life. That is a seriously insane story.

In my case, it was more that the thought of leaving New York made me want to throw myself from my classmate's 16th story balcony. I spent six months without a single NYC acceptance, and then I got Cardozo, and four days later, Fordham. I don't know why it happened at all, or why I was waitlisted for so long if they meant to take me in the first place. I was always a strong consider. YCRev ran the numbers for me by special order, and the knowledge that I really was good enough got me through those last tough weeks on the waitlist. Didn't get me any money, though. I guess the new goal is to make top 5% and beg for aid. :P

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vanwinkle
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby vanwinkle » Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:28 am

OperaSoprano wrote:YCRev ran the numbers for me by special order


I keep marvelling at the amazing special powers you have over this board! :wink:

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jul 31, 2009 12:20 pm

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor: Accuracy Data Now Available

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:12 pm

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.4

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Aug 02, 2009 3:07 pm

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OperaSoprano
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.4

Postby OperaSoprano » Sun Aug 02, 2009 3:16 pm

YCrevolution wrote:Last call for quick suggestions for LSP. I'll try and put Version 2.5 out before (my) law school starts, but aside from minor fixes and tweaks, Version 2.5 is probably going to be the latest and greatest version of LSP once the Class of 2013 application season starts. Depending on how crunched Iam for time during winter break, I might look into adding features and major revisions then, too.

In unrelated (but oddly appropriate) news, this is my 2000th TLS post (making me the 165th most prolific TLS poster). Time for a 'tar change (or maybe a reversion).


Happy 2000th anniversary!

I just hit 4444 today. Damn, I need to get off TLS!

To vanwinkle: YCR would do the same for anyone. He's that kind of a guy.

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vanwinkle
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.4

Postby vanwinkle » Sun Aug 02, 2009 4:46 pm

OperaSoprano wrote:To vanwinkle: YCR would do the same for anyone. He's that kind of a guy.


I'm beginning to notice that. He seems like a pretty outstanding guy. Happy 2000th, YCr!

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:14 pm

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Last edited by YCrevolution on Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Reinhardt
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby Reinhardt » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:38 pm

While the overall accuracy may be as you say, I'm wondering if some special attention needs to be given to certain schools. Stanford and Yale probably have much less accurate predictions than others. According to Yale's data on its LSAC report thing, during one year they admitted 10 out of 100 applicants from the "3.5 to 3.74, 175+" group. You'd think then that someone with a 3.5 and a 175 would have a 10% chance at best, but LSP returns a 25% chance. Stanford will of course be hard to modify right now since they just changed their index formula, but I feel that it is also too optimistic.

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Whatisthis
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby Whatisthis » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:10 pm

This is very cool and it gives me hope, though, as much as I'd like to believe it’s correct, I think some formulas may need some adjusting. For instance, it gives me a 40+% at Berkeley, when I know it's next to impossible to get in with my sub 3.5 GPA. Outside of HYSB all the other schools seem pretty reasonable.

Thanks Again!

lhfan
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby lhfan » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:44 pm

Excellent update! Thanks for spending so much time on this.

Although I'll also have to agree that it seems like the chances it gives are a bit too optimistic. I'm almost positive that my 168,3.66 should not be 47% chance at U Penn.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby YCrevolution » Sun Aug 09, 2009 11:43 pm

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Bronte
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby Bronte » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:03 am

YCrevolution wrote:
lhfan wrote:Excellent update! Thanks for spending so much time on this.

Although I'll also have to agree that it seems like the chances it gives are a bit too optimistic. I'm almost positive that my 168,3.66 should not be 47% chance at U Penn.

I've updated LSP so that the field reads "% AT/BELOW" instead of chance, so it's more accurate and less confusing. The % At/Below takes the adjusted user's index score (adjusted for URM, etc.), and compares it against the estimated index score percentiles of the matriculated Class of 2011 at each school.


Good call. This is much more accurate. Another way to phrase it: it's an estimated percentile (of those matriculated), which is actually much different than a probability.

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FacePalm
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby FacePalm » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:07 am

YC
"Ithica, NY" (for Cornell) leads to Charlottesville, Virginia on Wiki

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:35 am

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Last edited by YCrevolution on Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Bronte
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby Bronte » Mon Aug 10, 2009 11:33 am

YCrevolution wrote:
Bronte wrote:I do want to put Estimated (or Est.) in there at some point, but right now it doesn't fit very well and I don't want to abbreviate percentile is "est." is going in front of it because then it will look like "Est. %," and I suspect a lot of people will think that's the same as "Est. Chance."


I do want to put Estimated (or Est.) in there at some point, but right now it doesn't fit very well and I don't want to abbreviate percentile is "est." is going in front of it because then it will look like "Est. %," and I suspect a lot of people will think that's the same as "Est. Chance."


Hey, don't put words in my mouth! :lol:

No, but seriously, I'm sure it's fine like this. You could use "Est. %tile," but that may be a bit too cryptic.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Aug 10, 2009 1:58 pm

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LSATfromNC
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby LSATfromNC » Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:51 pm

Can anyone else on a .mil domain get onto lawschoolpredictor?

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:09 pm

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cendien
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby cendien » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:24 pm

Hey YC -

Sorry if I missed this earlier in the thread. Do you have plans to implement residency checks for the state schools? I would imagine that would have an impact at schools like UVA, UT, Michigan(?) etc.

Otherwise, an amazing program that only continues to impress! Thanks for all you do here.

LSATfromNC
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Re: Law School Predictor Official Thread: Version 2.5

Postby LSATfromNC » Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:35 pm

:)
Last edited by LSATfromNC on Thu Sep 02, 2010 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.




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