Law School Predictor: The Thread"

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SamSeaborn2016
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby SamSeaborn2016 » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:29 am

biv0ns wrote:
Ken wrote:Thanks Evan, it is looking great!!


Agreed, I've recently become addicted in predicting my future admissions cycle. I've formed a spreadsheet comprised of schools I like as far as their location and environment, coupled with possible LSAT/GPA combinations, and charted my likelihood of admission depending on how I perform my junior year and on the LSAT. Call me a dork, but I like to know what to aim for and what my options are:

--ImageRemoved--



Nicely done. I'm totally borrowing your layout.

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James Bond
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby James Bond » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:32 am

SamSeaborn2016 wrote:
biv0ns wrote:
Ken wrote:Thanks Evan, it is looking great!!


Agreed, I've recently become addicted in predicting my future admissions cycle. I've formed a spreadsheet comprised of schools I like as far as their location and environment, coupled with possible LSAT/GPA combinations, and charted my likelihood of admission depending on how I perform my junior year and on the LSAT. Call me a dork, but I like to know what to aim for and what my options are:

--ImageRemoved--



Nicely done. I'm totally borrowing your layout.


It actually really helped me. Previously I had considered U Penn and Duke to be the high end of my possible schools, but now I don't see a reason to waste my money.

h1yaaaguy
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby h1yaaaguy » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:41 am

Tried it out. It's not very good. Just got done with my cycle, and I'll thank god (which I dont believe in) that I didnt look at this crap before I applied. No offense, hopefully it helps out someone. For me though, way way way off.

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James Bond
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby James Bond » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:44 am

h1yaaaguy wrote:Tried it out. It's not very good. Just got done with my cycle, and I'll thank god (which I dont believe in) that I didnt look at this crap before I applied. No offense, hopefully it helps out someone. For me though, way way way off.


I'm sure if you cite some examples instead of just calling it "crap" you could help improve it

h1yaaaguy
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby h1yaaaguy » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:47 am

biv0ns wrote:
h1yaaaguy wrote:Tried it out. It's not very good. Just got done with my cycle, and I'll thank god (which I dont believe in) that I didnt look at this crap before I applied. No offense, hopefully it helps out someone. For me though, way way way off.


I'm sure if you cite some examples instead of just calling it "crap" you could help improve it



Sorry boss. As I said no offense. I would just recommend that this is loosely used as a guide. If I used this strictly I may not have applied to anything better than a t50. However, I got into several t20's. Maybe it's just not as accurate when it's for a high splitter.

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James Bond
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby James Bond » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:51 am

h1yaaaguy wrote:
biv0ns wrote:
h1yaaaguy wrote:Tried it out. It's not very good. Just got done with my cycle, and I'll thank god (which I dont believe in) that I didnt look at this crap before I applied. No offense, hopefully it helps out someone. For me though, way way way off.


I'm sure if you cite some examples instead of just calling it "crap" you could help improve it



Sorry boss. As I said no offense. I would just recommend that this is loosely used as a guide. If I used this strictly I may not have applied to anything better than a t50. However, I got into several t20's. Maybe it's just not as accurate when it's for a high splitter.


No no, I wasn't trying to come at you, I was meaning more...post your numbers and the schools you got into/didn't get into so hopefully your example can be used to fix future updates. If you look at my chart I'm obviously a splitter too. I want it to be as reflective as possible.

h1yaaaguy
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby h1yaaaguy » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:56 am

biv0ns wrote:
h1yaaaguy wrote:
biv0ns wrote:
h1yaaaguy wrote:Tried it out. It's not very good. Just got done with my cycle, and I'll thank god (which I dont believe in) that I didnt look at this crap before I applied. No offense, hopefully it helps out someone. For me though, way way way off.


I'm sure if you cite some examples instead of just calling it "crap" you could help improve it



Sorry boss. As I said no offense. I would just recommend that this is loosely used as a guide. If I used this strictly I may not have applied to anything better than a t50. However, I got into several t20's. Maybe it's just not as accurate when it's for a high splitter.


No no, I wasn't trying to come at you, I was meaning more...post your numbers and the schools you got into/didn't get into so hopefully your example can be used to fix future updates. If you look at my chart I'm obviously a splitter too. I want it to be as reflective as possible.



You're right. When I'm not so tired I'll come back and list where it was wrong for me. I guess "crap" was kind of an aggressive term. It isn't crap. It's actually a potentially very sweet tool. For my splitter stats it just didn't work. However, when fine tuned, I'm sure that this can be very useful. It is 2 am though, and I just can't do it right now.

h1yaaaguy
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby h1yaaaguy » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:58 am

biv0ns wrote:
SamSeaborn2016 wrote:
biv0ns wrote:
Ken wrote:Thanks Evan, it is looking great!!


Agreed, I've recently become addicted in predicting my future admissions cycle. I've formed a spreadsheet comprised of schools I like as far as their location and environment, coupled with possible LSAT/GPA combinations, and charted my likelihood of admission depending on how I perform my junior year and on the LSAT. Call me a dork, but I like to know what to aim for and what my options are:

--ImageRemoved--



Nicely done. I'm totally borrowing your layout.


It actually really helped me. Previously I had considered U Penn and Duke to be the high end of my possible schools, but now I don't see a reason to waste my money.



Just noticed this. Again don't take this too close to heart yet... I just don't think the equations are there yet. If you really want Penn or Duke, give the adcomm a nice app package and don't worry about what this tells you.

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Spaceman_Stiff
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Spaceman_Stiff » Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:11 am

biv0ns wrote:
SamSeaborn2016 wrote:
biv0ns wrote:
Ken wrote:Thanks Evan, it is looking great!!


Agreed, I've recently become addicted in predicting my future admissions cycle. I've formed a spreadsheet comprised of schools I like as far as their location and environment, coupled with possible LSAT/GPA combinations, and charted my likelihood of admission depending on how I perform my junior year and on the LSAT. Call me a dork, but I like to know what to aim for and what my options are:

--ImageRemoved--



Nicely done. I'm totally borrowing your layout.


It actually really helped me. Previously I had considered U Penn and Duke to be the high end of my possible schools, but now I don't see a reason to waste my money.


Don't entirely go off of these predictors, as a splitter the predictors tend to be wildly inaccurate much of the time. Believe me, if I had gone off one, I wouldn't have applied to 1/2 the schools I did, and wouldn't be going to the school that I am. I was just as addicted to the placebo effect that the predictors give you, but the fact is, high LSAT low GPA splitters just have NO IDEA where they are going to end up at. Your app package, your LORs and your PS matter much more in this case, and there simply isn't any way to know how that will be looked upon.

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Rotor
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Rotor » Fri Jun 26, 2009 8:50 am

Concur with those who say don't base your applications entirely on predictors. Every school is looking for something different in its 1L class. You may fit that profile even if your numbers aren't perfect. Splitters apparently don't model well (yet!). Also, if you have genuinely rare softs, you won't really model well either. The closer you are to the traditional student (22 years old, good grades, typical softs) the more ADCOMs have to rely on your numbers and the application will be more relevant.

I nearly didn't apply to Berkeley because of its rep as a high GPA whore and my LSAT was below median. Granted, I'm a non-trad that brings other things to the table, but that's where I'm headed despite being below 25%/below median (GPA/LSAT). When you're looking at less than $100 for application and LSDAS report when you're about to spend ~$100K+ on your legal education, it makes sense to give those places a shot considering the advantages they will provide you on the back end if you get lucky at a reach.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jun 26, 2009 9:44 am

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:17 pm

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Spaceman_Stiff
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Spaceman_Stiff » Fri Jun 26, 2009 2:23 pm

YCrevolution wrote:Wow...

A new record has been set for number of unique visitors in one day at LawSchoolPredictor.com today (which is just a little over a week old), and it's still afternoon on the East Coast. There's already thousands of page views just for today, too.

Also, this thread has hit 10,000+ page views. To be honest, I'm amazed.


Congrats, its a good resource, and it is nice to see the process that went into it.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jun 26, 2009 3:21 pm

..

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lml09
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby lml09 » Mon Jun 29, 2009 1:00 pm

Cool! Another new toy to play with.

Oe.Maas
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Oe.Maas » Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:52 am

Have an easy question. The 25, Middle and 75 numbers that come after Score, are those figures for applicants or for admitted students? Thanks.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:47 am

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Antipodean
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Antipodean » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:21 pm

YCrevolution wrote:Wow...

A new record has been set for number of unique visitors in one day at LawSchoolPredictor.com today (which is just a little over a week old), and it's still afternoon on the East Coast. There's already thousands of page views just for today, too.

Also, this thread has hit 10,000+ page views. To be honest, I'm amazed.

Given the heavy discussion of law school chances prediction in this thread, I'm sure it Googles well for those seeking this kind of information. The link may be spreading through word-of-mouth, too.

I hope you don't have a bandwidth cap / charges for "excess usage".

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Wed Jul 01, 2009 10:37 pm

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Whatisthis
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby Whatisthis » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:50 pm

Thanks for all the hard work you've put into this! It has really come a long way in short time!

I see that you altered the formulas to adjust for high LSAT splitters. Would you mind sharing how you accomplished this?

MTC87
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby MTC87 » Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:19 pm

is it strange that a 3.6/176 returns a lower index score for NYU than a 3.5/176?

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Fri Jul 03, 2009 7:25 pm

..

MTC87
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby MTC87 » Fri Jul 03, 2009 8:12 pm

YCrevolution wrote:
MTC87 wrote:is it strange that a 3.6/176 returns a lower index score for NYU than a 3.5/176?

Yes, but I was unable to repeat your results (I got a 15.682 for 3.6 and a 15.582 for 3.5) per se. I did notice the textual prediction gets weird for NYU around 3.5/3.6 (Admit at 3.5, and Strong Consider at 3.6), and I suspect there was probably a rounding error somewhere although I'll check the formulas.


You're right, I mis-read the index score - what actually caught my attention was the fact that 3.5 yielded an "Admit" and 3.6 didn't.

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YCrevolution
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby YCrevolution » Mon Jul 06, 2009 9:05 pm

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englawyer
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Re: Law School Predictor Version 2.2 - Published June 24, 2009

Postby englawyer » Mon Jul 06, 2009 10:10 pm

i think your HLS index is too LSAT heavy.

According to the calculator, 173/3.93 = 175/3.78, but that doesn't seem to bear out on LSN. Also the first pair comes up with Consider but I think it would be more like Positive Consider (i hope)




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