COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

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LSATWiz.com

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COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby LSATWiz.com » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:51 pm

The college board is expecting much lower yields for most universities due to the economic situation caused by COVID-19 where families who expected to be able to afford a school will now no longer be able to afford it. This isn't expected to significantly impact Ivy League schools with large endowments who will respond by increasing aid, but will impact private universities without such endowments.

Law students are less likely to rely on their parents to pay tuition, but it's still fair to expect lower yields across the board. This means that there will likely be more waitlist applicants accepted, and it also creates an opportunity for students to negotiate higher scholarships. If possible, students should avail themselves to this opportunity as they are a more attractive candidate now than they were a month ago.

Anyone interested in seeking law school admissions assistance or considering retaking the LSAT for a better score should always feel welcome to PM me or give me a call for a free consultation.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby bobcat404 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:43 pm

Hi there,

First time poster whose on the wait list at many of my top choice schools (splitter). I was thinking about this topic and actually had the opposite theory, that more students who are admitted would be likely to enroll. This would be a reaction to a contraction in the labor market and less opportunities out there, similar to a recession.

With that said, I was also thinking that the inability for waitlisted students to retake the March/April/May LSATs might counteract this, causing things to balance out.

Do you have any numbers you can point to, or is this just theory at this point?

Thanks!

The Bobcat

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby decimalsanddollars » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:12 pm

See, I kind of see things going the opposite way: the economy worsens, people can't get jobs or get laid off, and they choose to go to law school rather than continue the job search, hoping the economy improves by the time they get out. I do agree that (1) this is a bad move for many people and (2) there are probably some very rational people who decide not to go to law school now because they can't afford it, but because law school can be financed entirely with government loans, I don't think people will actually decide they "can't afford it" unless they're particularly debt-averse AND have significant career alternatives. I predict next cycle will have significantly MORE applications (including and especially mediocre ones), but top schools will still be recruiting high scorers, which is a group not extremely likely to increase under my theory (and most likely to decrease under yours, given that high scorers tend to have good alternatives). In that case, excellent test prep is even more important for moving an applicant from the growing, undesirable pile to the shrinking, desirable pile of high-score applications.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby LSATWiz.com » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:53 pm

Replying to above - I see the lower yield this year, not necessarily in subsequent years. This is also a projection so there isn't really data to support it as we're predicting something that hasn't happened yet, but many sources have forecasted a lower yield for colleges:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavi ... 08357.html

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/202 ... nrollments

https://www.insidehighered.com/admissio ... admissions

https://www.forbes.com/sites/avivalegat ... 073e8e5e9d

I suspect colleges will be hit the hardest, but non-top 14 law schools will likely face much lower yields as well. I'd imagine that if the situation worsens, the more elite law schools will go into their endowments to put a class together whereas third or fourth tier schools may not be in a position to operate at a profit and be unwilling to operate at a loss.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby decimalsanddollars » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:00 am

LSATWiz.com wrote:I suspect colleges will be hit the hardest, but non-top 14 law schools will likely face much lower yields as well. I'd imagine that if the situation worsens, the more elite law schools will go into their endowments to put a class together whereas third or fourth tier schools may not be in a position to operate at a profit and be unwilling to operate at a loss.


100% agree. Less of a problem for schools with a war chest; more of a problem for schools that already have a few problems.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby Red_Bird » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:36 am

I agree. I think since non-trads are the ones who are especially attracted to lower-tier law schools, there will be less people willing to attend those schools. They generally have more responsibilities and law school will not be seen as a priority at this time. I'm interested to see how this plays out. I think colleges will be OK, overall. I know a lot of non-trads actually went to school to earn their first degree in the last financial crisis.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby bobcat404 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:03 am

Thanks for taking the time to post those links. They were some interesting reads! Here's what I got out of them as it pertains to law school:
1 - Going out of state is less likely now because A- increased uncertainty bc you can't see a school in real life and B- may feel more comfortable to home, possibly for family health reasons (this is if schools don't go online and there is no need to move to attend an out of state school)
2 - International (especially Chinese) students are very unlikely to move now

I see #2 as less relevant. 1 is true because I am feeling it myself. I don't want to leave my home state just in case one of my family members gets sick and I am needed for support, emotionally/financially/etc.

With that said and unemployment skyrocketing, I would think applications might pour in towards April-May.

I see many schools have extended their application and deposit deadlines. Do you think this is directly attributed to trying to cast a wider net to make up for the drop-off in applicants/yield versus prior years?

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby LSATWiz.com » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:24 am

bobcat404 wrote:Thanks for taking the time to post those links. They were some interesting reads! Here's what I got out of them as it pertains to law school:
1 - Going out of state is less likely now because A- increased uncertainty bc you can't see a school in real life and B- may feel more comfortable to home, possibly for family health reasons (this is if schools don't go online and there is no need to move to attend an out of state school)
2 - International (especially Chinese) students are very unlikely to move now

I see #2 as less relevant. 1 is true because I am feeling it myself. I don't want to leave my home state just in case one of my family members gets sick and I am needed for support, emotionally/financially/etc.

With that said and unemployment skyrocketing, I would think applications might pour in towards April-May.

I see many schools have extended their application and deposit deadlines. Do you think this is directly attributed to trying to cast a wider net to make up for the drop-off in applicants/yield versus prior years?

Yeah, but we haven't really seen unemployment skyrocket yet in the kind of fields pre-law school students have. Right now it's mostly impacting wait staff and people who work in construction.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby bwh8813 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:12 am

It's true that yields will almost certainly be lower, but class sizes may also end up being quite a bit lower. Many law schools are preparing to potentially still be remote in the fall in some capacity - even if they plan to have students back by August, there's a concern over a 2nd wave. There's a real concern that a significant portion of the applicant pool holds off on going to law school for a cycle or two, or that many who do go will stay closer to home than they may otherwise have. There are a lot of unknowns at this point.

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Re: COVID-19 and Admissions (Expect lower yields)

Postby rgwen » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:40 pm

bwh8813 wrote:It's true that yields will almost certainly be lower, but class sizes may also end up being quite a bit lower. Many law schools are preparing to potentially still be remote in the fall in some capacity - even if they plan to have students back by August, there's a concern over a 2nd wave. There's a real concern that a significant portion of the applicant pool holds off on going to law school for a cycle or two, or that many who do go will stay closer to home than they may otherwise have. There are a lot of unknowns at this point.


Do you think schools will reduce their class sizes before allowing medians to slip?

Somewhat related, I'm sitting on three waitlists so I'm curious how movement will be affected. Waitlisted candidates often are people they would like to have in the class, but don't quite have the numbers. We may see more movement, but I'm wondering if there would be a cutoff where a school would just eat the tuition dollars and field a smaller class to keep the numbers up. Also wondering if schools will be waitlisting a lot more candidates in April in order to have a larger reserve pile which may offset any advantage a waitlist candidate may have had from any increased movement.

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