Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

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cavalier1138
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby cavalier1138 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:12 pm

rictheruler wrote:
sharris2017 wrote:Everyone needs to calm down. You can't do anything about what will happen.


These people are causing themselves needless suffering, and this suffering is almost entirely a product of their own thoughts. Our goal as a species needs to be to put an end to this suffering by ridding ourselves the dogmatism and delusion of TLS.


Step 1: Everyone put on your hair-shirts and prepare for the self-flagellation.

JosephFourier
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JosephFourier » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:24 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.

If it's a Trump thing do we expect the effect to taper down by next year or continue?

cavalier1138
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby cavalier1138 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:27 pm

JosephFourier wrote:If it's a Trump thing do we expect the effect to taper down by next year or continue?


Let's consult the most reliable source available.
Last edited by cavalier1138 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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urmlaw17
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby urmlaw17 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:27 pm

JosephFourier wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.

If it's a Trump thing do we expect the effect to taper down by next year or continue?

If it tapers down by a lot, I might wait a cycle haha

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Platopus
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Platopus » Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:40 pm

cavalier1138 wrote:
JosephFourier wrote:If it's a Trump thing do we expect the effect to taper down by next year or continue?


Let's consult the most reliable source available.


This made me laugh much harder than it should

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sharris2017
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby sharris2017 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:40 pm

cavalier1138 wrote:
sharris2017 wrote:Everyone needs to calm down. You can't do anything about what will happen.


They can freak out about it on a forum.


Ease your suffering and buy bitcoin.

edcat
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby edcat » Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:15 pm

Not to be excessively melodramatic, but isn't this a leading indicator of a recession?

Since there are fewer good entry level jobs available in the lead up to a recession, people are more likely to apply to law schools. This effect is especially strong among the brightest applicants(170 and 175+ scorers) since they otherwise would tend to have excellent other opportunities to draw them away from law school in normal economic times.

Do we have comparable data from before the recession? Was the spike in applications especially strong among high scorers?

If it was and we are moving past our concern for the economy at large to our concern for our personal outcomes, how did law schools react to the spike in terms of admission and scholarship offers? Further how did the legal market weather the ensuing recession?(Spoiler this one didn't turn out well.) Specifically, how do you avoid risk going into law school before a recession? Do you go to the best school you can since only HYS and maybe CCN to a substantially lesser degree really kept up their job placement numbers during the last recession? Alternatively, do you minimize debt in case this recession cuts deeper and you can't get a legal job(or any job) at all.

Or maybe(hopefully) I'm wrong and the analogy breaks down? Maybe there is no recession coming (just a Trump bump). I cannot fathom why a Trump bump would effect high scoring applicants more strongly though. It could also be that something is just making high scorers apply early this cycle throwing off the comparison to previous cycles. Or it could be that something(maybe the GRE) is making people who would normally sit out and wait choose to use their high LSATs this cycle. I don't know that there are really many people sitting on 175+ LSATs for multiple cycles though.

Any thoughts about the potential recession theory?

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rowdy
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rowdy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:23 pm

edcat wrote:Any thoughts about the potential recession theory?


No, I do not have any thoughts on that subject.

paperworkjim
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby paperworkjim » Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:55 pm

edcat wrote:Not to be excessively melodramatic, but isn't this a leading indicator of a recession?

Since there are fewer good entry level jobs available in the lead up to a recession, people are more likely to apply to law schools. This effect is especially strong among the brightest applicants(170 and 175+ scorers) since they otherwise would tend to have excellent other opportunities to draw them away from law school in normal economic times.

Do we have comparable data from before the recession? Was the spike in applications especially strong among high scorers?

If it was and we are moving past our concern for the economy at large to our concern for our personal outcomes, how did law schools react to the spike in terms of admission and scholarship offers? Further how did the legal market weather the ensuing recession?(Spoiler this one didn't turn out well.) Specifically, how do you avoid risk going into law school before a recession? Do you go to the best school you can since only HYS and maybe CCN to a substantially lesser degree really kept up their job placement numbers during the last recession? Alternatively, do you minimize debt in case this recession cuts deeper and you can't get a legal job(or any job) at all.

Or maybe(hopefully) I'm wrong and the analogy breaks down? Maybe there is no recession coming (just a Trump bump). I cannot fathom why a Trump bump would effect high scoring applicants more strongly though. It could also be that something is just making high scorers apply early this cycle throwing off the comparison to previous cycles. Or it could be that something(maybe the GRE) is making people who would normally sit out and wait choose to use their high LSATs this cycle. I don't know that there are really many people sitting on 175+ LSATs for multiple cycles though.

Any thoughts about the potential recession theory?


Wtf. This thread is the most TLS thing I've ever seen.

Tell the Fed to stop looking at labor force participation or wage growth -- law school applications are the leading indicator everyone needs to be keeping an eye on.
Last edited by paperworkjim on Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:21 pm

I can only speak for myself, but as a high lsat / high gpa applicant, I'm probably only applying because of Trump. I was always thinking about going but needed a push. I can definitely make more money not going to law school (programmer), so I was hesitant but feel like I should be doing something more useful (wanting to go into non profit law). Hence my thinking these numbers reflect others thinking the same way (this would also mean a likely increase in older candidates, so that might be a check).

As for recession concerns, I would avoid making comparisons to or worrying about the 07-12 recession. That was an extreme, so even if we did go into one, it's unlikely to prove nearly as devastating. I don't think the increase is a recession omen personally.

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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby icechicken » Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:24 pm

paperworkjim wrote:Tell the Fed to stop looking at Labor Force Participation or Wage Growth -- law school applications are the leading indicator everyone needs to be keeping an eye on.


I for one am much more concerned about the deflationary spiral that will ensue unless NY goes to 200k

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Learned Throw Hands
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Learned Throw Hands » Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:43 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:I can only speak for myself, but as a high lsat / high gpa applicant, I'm probably only applying because of Trump. I was always thinking about going but needed a push. I can definitely make more money not going to law school (programmer), so I was hesitant but feel like I should be doing something more useful (wanting to go into non profit law). Hence my thinking these numbers reflect others thinking the same way (this would also mean a likely increase in older candidates, so that might be a check).

As for recession concerns, I would avoid making comparisons to or worrying about the 07-12 recession. That was an extreme, so even if we did go into one, it's unlikely to prove nearly as devastating. I don't think the increase is a recession omen personally.

You're making a terrible mistake.

cavalier1138
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby cavalier1138 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:52 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:I can only speak for myself, but as a high lsat / high gpa applicant, I'm probably only applying because of Trump. I was always thinking about going but needed a push. I can definitely make more money not going to law school (programmer), so I was hesitant but feel like I should be doing something more useful (wanting to go into non profit law). Hence my thinking these numbers reflect others thinking the same way (this would also mean a likely increase in older candidates, so that might be a check).


You know that we elect a new president every four years or so, right?

I'm not saying to not go. But if your sole reason for getting a JD is Trump, then you're going to be really aimless when you graduate and someone else is in office.

edcat
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby edcat » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:26 pm

cavalier1138 wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:I can only speak for myself, but as a high lsat / high gpa applicant, I'm probably only applying because of Trump. I was always thinking about going but needed a push. I can definitely make more money not going to law school (programmer), so I was hesitant but feel like I should be doing something more useful (wanting to go into non profit law). Hence my thinking these numbers reflect others thinking the same way (this would also mean a likely increase in older candidates, so that might be a check).


You know that we elect a new president every four years or so, right?

I'm not saying to not go. But if your sole reason for getting a JD is Trump, then you're going to be really aimless when you graduate and someone else is in office.


I'm not sure how you read that post and see that his sole reason for getting a JD is Trump. He literally said Trump was just a little push. He also said he sees non-profit law as more useful than programming. Right or not, that is definitely another reason he has to go into law. Further all the evidence suggests non-profit lawyers are more satisfied and less aimless than their corporate counterparts. They are just poor.

At the same time, I still don't see how any of the rationale James lists wouldn't equally apply to lower scoring candidates. Why wouldn't they feel a push to finally apply to law school too as a result of Trump?

We need to explain that disparity. Why are high score applications climbing so much faster than low and middle score apps? A recession explains it, since hiring dries up for everyone and high scoring applicants generally have easier access to other jobs in the economy. Therefore, when those jobs start to dry up, they flock to law school and graduate school where there are the same number of available spots as normal. There may be other explanations for the disparity, but none have been offered here yet.

Edit: Upon rereading he did say that he didn't think he would be going if not for Trump.

paperworkjim
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby paperworkjim » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:36 pm

edcat wrote:
cavalier1138 wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:I can only speak for myself, but as a high lsat / high gpa applicant, I'm probably only applying because of Trump. I was always thinking about going but needed a push. I can definitely make more money not going to law school (programmer), so I was hesitant but feel like I should be doing something more useful (wanting to go into non profit law). Hence my thinking these numbers reflect others thinking the same way (this would also mean a likely increase in older candidates, so that might be a check).


You know that we elect a new president every four years or so, right?

I'm not saying to not go. But if your sole reason for getting a JD is Trump, then you're going to be really aimless when you graduate and someone else is in office.


I'm not sure how you read that post and see that his sole reason for getting a JD is Trump. He literally said Trump was just a little push. He also said he sees non-profit law as more useful than programming. Right or not, that is definitely another reason he has to go into law. Further all the evidence suggests non-profit lawyers are more satisfied and less aimless than their corporate counterparts. They are just poor.

At the same time, I still don't see how any of the rationale James lists wouldn't equally apply to lower scoring candidates. Why wouldn't they feel a push to finally apply to law school too as a result of Trump?

We need to explain that disparity. Why are high score applications climbing so much faster than low and middle score apps? A recession explains it, since hiring dries up for everyone and high scoring applicants generally have easier access to other jobs in the economy. Therefore, when those jobs start to dry up, they flock to law school and graduate school where there are the same number of available spots as normal. There may be other explanations for the disparity, but none have been offered here yet.

Edit: Upon rereading he did say that he didn't think he would be going if not for Trump.


My man. Remember your LSAT lessons -- just because something is a potential explanation does not mean it is even a feasible one. I promise you, from the bottom of my heart, the thousands of law school applicants are not genius economists who can for-see a recession coming.

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:50 pm

Learned Throw Hands wrote:You're making a terrible mistake.


I'm glad you think so internet stranger! I, on the other hand, know I'm making a phenomenal decision :D

I think everyone is misreading "I'm probably only applying because of Trump" as, "Trump is my reason for going to law school." I was already considering going to law school for a myriad of other more important reasons but just needed that little push to get me over the edge and take those plans more seriously.

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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby lobsicle » Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:54 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
Learned Throw Hands wrote:You're making a terrible mistake.


I'm glad you think so internet stranger! I, on the other hand, know I'm making a phenomenal decision :D

I think everyone is misreading "I'm probably only applying because of Trump" as, "Trump is my reason for going to law school." I was already considering going to law school for a myriad of other more important reasons but just needed that little push to get me over the edge and take those plans more seriously.


In other words people are correctly understanding what the word "only" means

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:00 pm

lobsicle wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
Learned Throw Hands wrote:You're making a terrible mistake.


I'm glad you think so internet stranger! I, on the other hand, know I'm making a phenomenal decision :D

I think everyone is misreading "I'm probably only applying because of Trump" as, "Trump is my reason for going to law school." I was already considering going to law school for a myriad of other more important reasons but just needed that little push to get me over the edge and take those plans more seriously.


In other words people are correctly understanding what the word "only" means


Fair, I should have qualified with "this cycle". We are discussing why numbers are up for this cycle and I'm probably only applying THIS CYCLE because of Trump.

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rowdy
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rowdy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:11 pm

lobsicle wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
Learned Throw Hands wrote:You're making a terrible mistake.


I'm glad you think so internet stranger! I, on the other hand, know I'm making a phenomenal decision :D

I think everyone is misreading "I'm probably only applying because of Trump" as, "Trump is my reason for going to law school." I was already considering going to law school for a myriad of other more important reasons but just needed that little push to get me over the edge and take those plans more seriously.


In other words people are correctly understanding what the word "only" means


I slept through my alarm clock today, so I probably only made it to work because a garbage truck drove by and woke me. However, it would be nonsense to suggest that my motivation to show up to my job is the existence of trash collectors.

They actually test sufficient and necessary conditions on the LSAT.

cavalier1138
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby cavalier1138 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:15 pm

rowdy wrote:
lobsicle wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
Learned Throw Hands wrote:You're making a terrible mistake.


I'm glad you think so internet stranger! I, on the other hand, know I'm making a phenomenal decision :D

I think everyone is misreading "I'm probably only applying because of Trump" as, "Trump is my reason for going to law school." I was already considering going to law school for a myriad of other more important reasons but just needed that little push to get me over the edge and take those plans more seriously.


In other words people are correctly understanding what the word "only" means


I slept through my alarm clock today, so I probably only made it to work because a garbage truck drove by and woke me. However, it would be nonsense to suggest that my motivation to show up to my job is the existence of trash collectors.

They actually test sufficient and necessary conditions on the LSAT.


But do they test shitty analogies?

That poster has now qualified that they meant "only" in the sense of their only applying at this exact moment in time (instead of later, I guess). But the initial post definitely didn't read that way and was completely unrelated to your weird alarm-clock-garbage-truck stuff.

lobsicle
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby lobsicle » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:17 pm

rowdy wrote:I slept through my alarm clock today, so I probably only made it to work because a garbage truck drove by and woke me. However, it would be nonsense to suggest that my motivation to show up to my job is the existence of trash collectors.

They actually test sufficient and necessary conditions on the LSAT.


Sure, this is true; but this isn't the LSAT.

My point was that JamesBlahDeBlah's use of the word "only" made it seem as though that was the only factor in his decision, and then blamed other posters for misinterpreting him, when really it was confusingly worded.

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rowdy
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rowdy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:21 pm

cavalier1138 wrote:
lobsicle wrote:


But do they test shitty analogies?

That poster has now qualified that they meant "only" in the sense of their only applying at this exact moment in time (instead of later, I guess). But the initial post definitely didn't read that way and was completely unrelated to your weird alarm-clock-garbage-truck stuff.


I mean, they do test shitty analogies too. If I keep working on my shitty analogy game I might even get a job writing LSAT questions.

I thought the original post clearly communicated that Trump was an inciting factor, but not a core reason OP was attending law school. Obviously you all read it differently.

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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:40 pm

rowdy wrote:I slept through my alarm clock today, so I probably only made it to work because a garbage truck drove by and woke me. However, it would be nonsense to suggest that my motivation to show up to my job is the existence of trash collectors.

They actually test sufficient and necessary conditions on the LSAT.


Thank you, I think this sums up how I read what I wrote nicely, and why I "blamed others for misinterpreting."

181plz
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby 181plz » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:44 pm

Another contributing factor to more high scoring applicants could be LSAC allowing for unlimited testing attempts. I scored a 172 in September on my 4th try, and my first 3 were all sub 170. Not sure how many other applicants may be in that situation

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rowdy
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rowdy » Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:45 pm

181plz wrote:Another contributing factor to more high scoring applicants could be LSAC allowing for unlimited testing attempts. I scored a 172 in September on my 4th try, and my first 3 were all sub 170. Not sure how many other applicants may be in that situation

Ding ding ding.




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