Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

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urmlaw17
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Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby urmlaw17 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:46 pm

http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/december-2017-data/

Applicant Data

Highest LSAT # Applicants % Change YTD
< 140 774 -5.1%
140-144 1,054 -2.7%
145-149 1,706 11.4%
150-154 2,327 11.8%
155-159 2,459 13.3%
160-164 2,570 18.9%
165-169 2,001 36.4%
170-174 1,111 16.6%
175-180 347 86.6%

Can someone correct my math on Title? Thanks!

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:07 pm

urmlaw17 wrote:http://blog.spiveyconsulting.com/december-2017-data/

Applicant Data

Highest LSAT # Applicants % Change YTD
< 140 774 -5.1%
140-144 1,054 -2.7%
145-149 1,706 11.4%
150-154 2,327 11.8%
155-159 2,459 13.3%
160-164 2,570 18.9%
165-169 2,001 36.4%
170-174 1,111 16.6%
175-180 347 86.6%

Can someone correct my math on Title? Thanks!


My math says 170+ are up 28%.

347 175-180 this year being 86.6% up means there were 186 last year, and 1111 170-174 being up 16.6% means there were 953 last year. That means total 170+ is 1139 last year and 1458 this year. Which is a 28% jump. I hope....

AJordan
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby AJordan » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:11 pm

Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+

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rowdy
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rowdy » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:20 pm

AJordan wrote:Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+


Isn't it bad news because schools don't need to dip down as low on GPA to get a high LSAT candidate?

181plz
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby 181plz » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:23 pm

This is terrifying. My 172 feels like dogshit.

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wmbuff
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby wmbuff » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:26 pm

rowdy wrote:
AJordan wrote:Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+


Isn't it bad news because schools don't need to dip down as low on GPA to get a high LSAT candidate?


They don't need to dip down to maintain, but this could become an arms race. Imagine if you're a smaller t13 with good scholarship money to throw around. In a year like this, what is a 2-point LSAT median jump worth? Imagine you're Texas, and want to secure your placement or even challenge Cornell and Berkeley, and still haven't sent any RD admits. Do you change your strategy?

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Platopus
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Platopus » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:26 pm

rowdy wrote:
AJordan wrote:Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+


Isn't it bad news because schools don't need to dip down as low on GPA to get a high LSAT candidate?


That's what I thought. Schools have even less incentive to be splitter friendly

181plz
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby 181plz » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:29 pm

Platopus wrote:
rowdy wrote:
AJordan wrote:Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+


Isn't it bad news because schools don't need to dip down as low on GPA to get a high LSAT candidate?


That's what I thought. Schools have even less incentive to be splitter friendly



Ya the obvious conclusion is there’s more competitive applicants and therefore a more competitive cycle. I just hope I stay above the 75th at MVP.

Edit: I think it’s unlikely that I do so for NYU.

ATXStudent
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby ATXStudent » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:33 pm

Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:36 pm

ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.

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FriedChickenHero
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby FriedChickenHero » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:39 pm

I guess it was really really really really important to apply early this cycle, considering that these are numbers only up until now. Can only get worse.

ATXStudent
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby ATXStudent » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:46 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.


I certainly can see a world where that assertion is true.

One question though, what makes everyone attribute this increase to Trump? In regards to toxicity or polarization increasing the net number of applications, we have seen the exact opposite occur on issues like voter turnout. Certainly comparing apples to oranges. But worth pondering if increased polarization in politics reduces voter turnout, why do we assume this increase is leading more to engage the system via the law?

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FriedChickenHero
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby FriedChickenHero » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:49 pm

ATXStudent wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.


I certainly can see a world where that assertion is true.

One question though, what makes everyone attribute this increase to Trump? In regards to toxicity or polarization increasing the net number of applications, we have seen the exact opposite occur on issues like voter turnout. Certainly comparing apples to oranges. But worth pondering if increased polarization in politics reduces voter turnout, why do we assume this increase is leading more to engage the system via the law?


I think another factor people aren't realizing is that the economy finally seems stable to a lot of people. When it was in the dumps even five/six years ago, I'd assume that a lot of people weren't willing to jump ship from the job they had to an unstable legal market.

ATXStudent
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby ATXStudent » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:55 pm

FriedChickenHero wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.


I certainly can see a world where that assertion is true.

One question though, what makes everyone attribute this increase to Trump? In regards to toxicity or polarization increasing the net number of applications, we have seen the exact opposite occur on issues like voter turnout. Certainly comparing apples to oranges. But worth pondering if increased polarization in politics reduces voter turnout, why do we assume this increase is leading more to engage the system via the law?


I think another factor people aren't realizing is that the economy finally seems stable to a lot of people. When it was in the dumps even five/six years ago, I'd assume that a lot of people weren't willing to jump ship from the job they had to an unstable legal market.



Agreed, I think its a combination of factors. I did see one argument that I also found interesting that most students whom have applied by this time were on balance more conscious, and thus probably more likely to on average have scored higher than their peers applying later in the cycle. While I think we all can find faults in such a statement, I think on balance it is true. One could also point to that students are more aware of the nuances of law school (apply early, studying for LSAT is major, websites such as this one increasing awareness, and the negatives outcomes seen on third tier reality).

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icechicken
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby icechicken » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:56 pm

Platopus wrote:
rowdy wrote:
AJordan wrote:Could be good news for splitters to counter the GRE worry. If schools are looking to raise medians, which Spivey thinks they are, that makes high scores more valuable in the process. Obviously speculative but I think it's honestly good news for everyone 173+


Isn't it bad news because schools don't need to dip down as low on GPA to get a high LSAT candidate?


That's what I thought. Schools have even less incentive to be splitter friendly


It isn't really about splitters one way or the other. People who were on the bubble in terms of LSAT (say, hoping for UVA with a 169) are going to get screwed over in a big way, regardless of whether their GPA was below-, at, or above-median.

In other words, marginal applicants are the ones who should worry the most when the quality of the applicant pool increases overall. Lots of splitters are marginal applicants (e.g. a 174/3.6 who wants Harvard) but there also splitters who aren't really marginal applicants (180/3.7) as well as plenty of people besides splitters who are marginal (173/3.85, or 170/4.1). Marginal applicants, splitters or no, are in trouble because they might get bumped down to a lower LSAT/uGPA quartile.

Super-splitters are probably going to be in roughly the same position they were before - their LSAT is going to become more desirable at about the same rate that it also becomes less scarce, so that's a wash, and their GPA is going to continue to be evaluated based on whether it passes the sniff test rather than its impact on medians.

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ArthurTimothyRead
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby ArthurTimothyRead » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:58 pm

The LSAT is a curved exam, so there certainly isn't a 50% increase in 170 scorers total. It's going to be mostly proportional to the overall increase in test takers, a far more modest bump.

With that variable aside, the only reasons we would see such a hike in top applicants are increased retakers, delayed admission, and frontloading. More people retaking and ending up with a 170+ is certainly happening, but I can't imagine it makes up a large part of the change. Previous 170+ scorers waiting until this year to apply is a possibility with the Trump Bump, but realistically, if someone got a 170+ last admissions cycle they would most likely be on a T14 campus right now. The LSAT is a hard test to do well on by accident; people who score at the 99th percentile usually invest a lot of time in prep and wouldn't pass the opportunity.

That leaves frontloading, which I think could explain up to 25% of the 170+ leap. We're in a time period where each new class of law applicants is notably more tech-savvy than the previous one, and I think that this growing access to digital resources and communities is encouraging the "sharkiest" 10% in particular to prepare early and submit early.

This is all speculation, but I believe we will end up with closer to a 15-20% increase in 170+ applicants by the end of the cycle. It may not even make T14 admissions 15-20% harder if law schools expand class sizes to accommodate more qualified candidates. Don't panic guys :)

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Pozzo
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Pozzo » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:09 pm

FriedChickenHero wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:
JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
ATXStudent wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not GPA will increase in value this cycle? I was reading some predictions a while back about how GRE scores would be a disrupter to law school applications, and that ultimately GPA would become more highly coveted. I see some obvious flaws with such an assertion but interested to see what others think for the sake of a distracting conversation


This will actually be interesting to see. I assume a lot more people are applying because of the current political environment, which means it's likely a lot of perspective students who never planned on going to law school. This would mean they might not have taken their undergrad GPA as seriously leading to more splitters.


I certainly can see a world where that assertion is true.

One question though, what makes everyone attribute this increase to Trump? In regards to toxicity or polarization increasing the net number of applications, we have seen the exact opposite occur on issues like voter turnout. Certainly comparing apples to oranges. But worth pondering if increased polarization in politics reduces voter turnout, why do we assume this increase is leading more to engage the system via the law?


I think another factor people aren't realizing is that the economy finally seems stable to a lot of people. When it was in the dumps even five/six years ago, I'd assume that a lot of people weren't willing to jump ship from the job they had to an unstable legal market.


Opposite actually. In the midst of the recession, tons of folks without job prospects out of undergrad applied to law school. Applications peaked in 2009-10 before falling off dramatically. They've only stabilized in the past year or two.

JamesBlahDeBlah
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby JamesBlahDeBlah » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:16 pm

FriedChickenHero wrote:I think another factor people aren't realizing is that the economy finally seems stable to a lot of people. When it was in the dumps even five/six years ago, I'd assume that a lot of people weren't willing to jump ship from the job they had to an unstable legal market.


I'm much more skeptical of this point. There are statistics that show going to law school during the recession was a competitive experience (just by checking LSN you can see a stark difference in scholarship money/acceptances/etc, but that could be a matter of not as many people reporting numbers back then) due to the number of undergraduates/recently laid off trying to avoid the job market for three years. This led to an increase in lawyers and thus caused the decrease in available jobs/salary. Not to mention the number of articles that were written about it during the time. So I can't imagine the economy stabilizing being a boon for applicants, I would expect a reverse of the recession trend.

Edit: Ninja'd

Adam68601
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Adam68601 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:59 pm

This is terrible

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Kaziende
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby Kaziende » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:06 pm

Adam68601 wrote:This is terrible

ATXStudent
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby ATXStudent » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:25 pm

JamesBlahDeBlah wrote:
FriedChickenHero wrote:I think another factor people aren't realizing is that the economy finally seems stable to a lot of people. When it was in the dumps even five/six years ago, I'd assume that a lot of people weren't willing to jump ship from the job they had to an unstable legal market.


I'm much more skeptical of this point. There are statistics that show going to law school during the recession was a competitive experience (just by checking LSN you can see a stark difference in scholarship money/acceptances/etc, but that could be a matter of not as many people reporting numbers back then) due to the number of undergraduates/recently laid off trying to avoid the job market for three years. This led to an increase in lawyers and thus caused the decrease in available jobs/salary. Not to mention the number of articles that were written about it during the time. So I can't imagine the economy stabilizing being a boon for applicants, I would expect a reverse of the recession trend.

Edit: Ninja'd


Economical factors aside, what do you attribute the boost to? I think there is a chance that the data will end up showing only a slight increase from last year. I looked at previous years and from what I gathered, there has been an increase from year to year starting in 2012 for more early applicants. Also, LSAT recently changed the retake rules, so if our numbers are based in part on the number of takers, we have no way (to my knowledge of cross eliminating retakers). I wouldn't be surprised if in five months we looked back on this and chuckle at ourselves for freaking out. I just don't see a world where numbers increase dramatically for LSAT takers/LSAT applicants (i.e. massive- 20% total applicant increase), especially in the context of the GRE.

austinlove
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby austinlove » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:30 pm

181plz wrote:This is terrifying. My 172 feels like dogshit.

+10

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sharris2017
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby sharris2017 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:43 pm

Everyone needs to calm down. You can't do anything about what will happen.

cavalier1138
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby cavalier1138 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:08 pm

sharris2017 wrote:Everyone needs to calm down. You can't do anything about what will happen.


They can freak out about it on a forum.

rictheruler
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Re: Applicants are up 14%, possibly around 50% with 170+

Postby rictheruler » Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:08 pm

sharris2017 wrote:Everyone needs to calm down. You can't do anything about what will happen.


These people are causing themselves needless suffering, and this suffering is almost entirely a product of their own thoughts. Our goal as a species needs to be to put an end to this suffering by ridding ourselves the dogmatism and delusion of TLS.




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