Stop Telling People to Retake

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:38 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:If you guys understand stats, you all fucked up going to law school instead of being an actuary. But sadly, no one in here really understands stats right now. He's right that the average persons lsat score will not improve significantly. Y'all are right that a retake is close to a free roll and you shouldn't settle/project that you'll only get the average outcome of no to minimal improvement.


I think we should all be able to agree on this. Of course that still leaves the whole "is waiting a year worth it" question open, but people don't agree on everything. We should be able to agree on the facts though.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:39 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


Even if you interpreted your results correctly (which you didn't), it only means you were statistically closer to the ENTIRE POPULATION MEAN, not the (expected/supposed/hypothetical) mean outcome for TLS users.

Just because you're OK with being perfectly, patently average doesn't mean the rest of us should give advice to other people to stay 'average'.


I was referring to the mean increases for retakes,not the mean score.


If that's what you were referring to, then again you were misinterpreting the data. The mean increase for second timers is something like 2.6 points, and the mean increase for third timers is something like 2.2 points on top of that.

What you were referencing was the overall mean score distribution for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time takers.


I thought we'd already proven that wrong yesterday?


I don't think you've proven anything in this thread

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BlendedUnicorn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:53 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
JohannDeMann wrote:If you guys understand stats, you all fucked up going to law school instead of being an actuary. But sadly, no one in here really understands stats right now. He's right that the average persons lsat score will not improve significantly. Y'all are right that a retake is close to a free roll and you shouldn't settle/project that you'll only get the average outcome of no to minimal improvement.


I think we should all be able to agree on this. Of course that still leaves the whole "is waiting a year worth it" question open, but people don't agree on everything. We should be able to agree on the facts though.


No, we shouldn't be able to agree on this because access to TLS guides to retaking is a conflating factor.

Go back to my mile analogy. It's absolutely true that if you time a random person running a mile and then ask them to run it again in three months, their time will not improve. But if you give them a rigorous and proven training regimen and they stick to it they can improve their time dramatically.

That's what people are saying about the LSAT. It's a highly learnable test. Looking at the overall data is close to meaningless because most people take it without doing the optimal amount of prep.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BigZuck » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:57 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
JohannDeMann wrote:If you guys understand stats, you all fucked up going to law school instead of being an actuary. But sadly, no one in here really understands stats right now. He's right that the average persons lsat score will not improve significantly. Y'all are right that a retake is close to a free roll and you shouldn't settle/project that you'll only get the average outcome of no to minimal improvement.


I think we should all be able to agree on this. Of course that still leaves the whole "is waiting a year worth it" question open, but people don't agree on everything. We should be able to agree on the facts though.

You're hitching your wagon to TLS' resident village idiot duder. Not the greatest of looks if you want people to agree with you/listen to you/understand what points you're trying to make.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:10 pm

HuntedUnicorn wrote:
JohannDeMann wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:
HuntedUnicorn wrote: It's not like the world divides into law or blue collar drudgery and unemployment.


Exactly. JDM keeps arguing that a TTTT law degree can give someone a potential path to a middle class life. Which is true. But there are a multitude of other paths to the middle class, and most of them are less expensive and risky than a TTTT JD.


Problem is once you've got a worthless undergrad you've boxed yourself in. I'd say a coding boot camp class would definitely be better than law. But as far as other jobs, not much is gonna slot you into to earn 6 figures later in life for someone with no connections that comes from a middle class background. Nursing maybe. I don't think law is that great so you won't get much push back from me if people said law sucks these careers are better. I just take issue with the if you go to John Marshall you won't even be a lawyer in 10 years when the data shows that someone who performs badly at John Marshall will on average earn 85-95k in 10 years as a LAWYER in some capacity.


The data most definitely does not show that. I know you've been leaning hard on the After the JD data but there's tons of problems with that:

a) Massive structural changes to the legal market over the past 10-20 years means that the classes the study measures won't necessarily have similar outcomes to the classes that graduate today
b) Response bias- the ABA naturally will have much better luck getting responses from people who are a) still lawyers and b) successful for something like that.


I'm sure there are more issues and I'm sure you're aware of them. I'm not disputing that it's possible to go to JM or a similarly positioned school and succeed but I still think you're overstating the ease and underestimating the viability of non-law alternatives.

I also think that now is a particularly bad time to go to a school that leans heavily on state level employment in Illinois.


If we've reached the point where my anecdotal evidence which is confirmed by the data is disregarded by you because it just doesn't feel right to your intuition, so be it. It's the best data we have. And it's flaws are also offset by what I showed - the worst legal economy recession ever and increases in legal salaries since the data was taken. The beauty of a snapshot study is you know exactly who your non responders are because they are tracked by an ID. only 2% of people didn't respond 13 years later in the 3rd wave from the initial wave. It's not meaningful.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:21 pm

HuntedUnicorn wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
JohannDeMann wrote:If you guys understand stats, you all fucked up going to law school instead of being an actuary. But sadly, no one in here really understands stats right now. He's right that the average persons lsat score will not improve significantly. Y'all are right that a retake is close to a free roll and you shouldn't settle/project that you'll only get the average outcome of no to minimal improvement.


I think we should all be able to agree on this. Of course that still leaves the whole "is waiting a year worth it" question open, but people don't agree on everything. We should be able to agree on the facts though.


No, we shouldn't be able to agree on this because access to TLS guides to retaking is a conflating factor.

Go back to my mile analogy. It's absolutely true that if you time a random person running a mile and then ask them to run it again in three months, their time will not improve. But if you give them a rigorous and proven training regimen and they stick to it they can improve their time dramatically.

That's what people are saying about the LSAT. It's a highly learnable test. Looking at the overall data is close to meaningless because most people take it without doingthe optimalamount of basically any substantial prep.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:25 pm

BigZuck wrote:You're hitching your wagon to TLS' resident village idiot duder. Not the greatest of looks if you want people to agree with you/listen to you/understand what points you're trying to make.


And while we're explaining biases, you've always had a personal vendetta against me. I'm citing the data which confirms my personal experience. just giving people tools to make an informed decision that is unique to everyone's circumstances.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Barack O'Drama » Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:59 pm

Yeah, I mean I can understand the sentiment behind OP's point. However, I fear that while it has become somewhat of a "rote" TLS mantra, that it is still so monumentally important. And I've witnessed many times where pushing people to retake made all the difference. I personally know of this girl who was set on going to her local TTT with a low-160s and she is now at HLS. (Check out some of the amazing stories -- I believe there is an entire thread)

On the other hand, there have been many examples where people have made it clear they aren't retaking and are just looking for opinions on the options they already have. I always try to respect that and give any helps with the pre-existing options.
Last edited by Barack O'Drama on Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:13 pm

Barack O'Drama wrote:Yeah, I mean I can understand the sentiment behind OP's point. However, I fear that while it has become somewhat of a "rote" TLS mantra, that it is still so monumentally important. And I've witnessed many times where pushing people to retake made all the difference. I personally know of this girl who was set on going to her local TTT with a low-160s and she is now at HLS. (Check out some of the amazing stories -- I believe there is an entire thread)

On the other hand, there have been many examples where people have made it clear they aren't retaking and are just looking for opinions on the options they already have. I always try to respect that and give any helps with the pre-existing options.


This is fair just respect people's questions! Also people should still tell others to retake but it just shouldn't be seen as a no brainer as it often is, especially if one has to wait a cycle.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby smaug » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:24 pm

If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:28 pm

smaug wrote:If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.


Depends on the numbers and options(telling people in the 160's and decent GPA's to wait a year just seems nonsensical to me) but I think we can all agree for no cycles missed it's almost always a no brainer. I think the whole typical retake conversation should be more based on "do you believe you can improve" than "you've got to retake because if you do better you'll have better options".

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BigZuck » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:29 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:
BigZuck wrote:You're hitching your wagon to TLS' resident village idiot duder. Not the greatest of looks if you want people to agree with you/listen to you/understand what points you're trying to make.


And while we're explaining biases, you've always had a personal vendetta against me. I'm citing the data which confirms my personal experience. just giving people tools to make an informed decision that is unique to everyone's circumstances.

It's not a "personal vendetta" I've said before that you're probably a great guy to degen with. I'm sure I'd have fun drinking and gambling with you. You're also probably a good person. It's just that you're an idiot so when you try to give people advice you say dumb stuff and people rightfully call you out on that.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby smaug » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:33 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.


Depends on the numbers and options(telling people in the 160's and decent GPA's to wait a year just seems nonsensical to me) but I think we can all agree for no cycles missed it's almost always a no brainer. I think the whole typical retake conversation should be more based on "do you believe you can improve" than "you've got to retake because if you do better you'll have better options".

If you have less than a 175 or so, you're making a suboptimal decision and can likely save more in debt by retaking than you will gain in starting your career as an attorney one year earlier.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:37 pm

smaug wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.


Depends on the numbers and options(telling people in the 160's and decent GPA's to wait a year just seems nonsensical to me) but I think we can all agree for no cycles missed it's almost always a no brainer. I think the whole typical retake conversation should be more based on "do you believe you can improve" than "you've got to retake because if you do better you'll have better options".

If you have less than a 175 or so, you're making a suboptimal decision and can likely save more in debt by retaking than you will gain in starting your career as an attorney one year earlier.


The higher your LSAT score is the lower your chances of improvement are. I have no idea why anyone with a 170 would retake(assuming they're not one of those people with GPA's in the 2's) unless they had a really bad day and still scored that. Heck once someone hits the mid 160's(I remember before taking the LSAT for take one, 163 was the score that would have convinced me not to retake) this whole conversation just seems super fringe. These people beat around 9 out of 10 people taking the test they will have good, no great options with $ if they apply smartly. What you're basically saying is if you're not better than 98-99% of people taking the test you should give it another go. Someone with a 174 and a decent GPA can be admitted ANYWHERE IN THE US and receive money from virtually every law school in the US, but yeah they should retake.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:45 pm

It's great if someone scores better than 90% of other test takers. That still may not get them where they want to be, though, depending on their goals and qualifications. Like, okay, congrats, you did better than 90% of applicants, but if you have top 7% goals and/or you have a terrible GPA (for whatever reason) better than 90% may not get you there. I'm sorry that being in the top 10% doesn't guarantee what you want it to guarantee, but in this context, it doesn't.

(The year off thing still kills me. That's like the blink of an eye.)

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:49 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.


Depends on the numbers and options(telling people in the 160's and decent GPA's to wait a year just seems nonsensical to me) but I think we can all agree for no cycles missed it's almost always a no brainer. I think the whole typical retake conversation should be more based on "do you believe you can improve" than "you've got to retake because if you do better you'll have better options".

If you have less than a 175 or so, you're making a suboptimal decision and can likely save more in debt by retaking than you will gain in starting your career as an attorney one year earlier.


The higher your LSAT score is the lower your chances of improvement are. I have no idea why anyone with a 170 would retake(assuming they're not one of those people with GPA's in the 2's) unless they had a really bad day and still scored that. Heck once someone hits the mid 160's(I remember before taking the LSAT for take one, 163 was the score that would have convinced me not to retake) this whole conversation just seems super fringe. These people beat around 9 out of 10 people taking the test they will have good, no great options with $ if they apply smartly. What you're basically saying is if you're not better than 98-99% of people taking the test you should give it another go. Someone with a 174 and a decent GPA can be admitted ANYWHERE IN THE US and receive money from virtually every law school in the US, but yeah they should retake.


THE STRAWMAN IS GETTING ABSOLUTELY MURDERED OVER HERE.

Come on man. Get real. "The higher your LSAT score is the lower your chances of improvement are." Prove it? Okay so you had a harder time improving as your score got higher? Doesn't make it true for anyone else. To be quite honest, it almost makes MORE sense for someone with a 170 to retake than someone with a 150. If you have a 150, you shouldn't go to law school. If you've got a 170, the difference from getting literally 1 or 2 more questions right (and bumping you to a 171 or 172) is ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS when we're talking about scholarships and such for the mid-range T14. It's way more important than the superficial bump from 150 to 154.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:52 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:It's great if someone scores better than 90% of other test takers. That still may not get them where they want to be, though, depending on their goals and qualifications. Like, okay, congrats, you did better than 90% of applicants, but if you have top 7% goals and/or you have a terrible GPA (for whatever reason) better than 90% may not get you there. I'm sorry that being in the top 10% doesn't guarantee what you want it to guarantee, but in this context, it doesn't.

(The year off thing still kills me. That's like the blink of an eye.)


I strongly, strongly disagree on the blink of an eye thing. I guess if I blink my eye about 60 more times I'm going to die! Also my last post referenced that those with the terrible GPA's are exceptions. And the poster I was responding to thought people with less than 175 should retake which takes it from top 8-10% to up to 1-2%.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 7:56 pm

mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
smaug wrote:If it's just one cycle it's still almost always a no brainer.


Depends on the numbers and options(telling people in the 160's and decent GPA's to wait a year just seems nonsensical to me) but I think we can all agree for no cycles missed it's almost always a no brainer. I think the whole typical retake conversation should be more based on "do you believe you can improve" than "you've got to retake because if you do better you'll have better options".

If you have less than a 175 or so, you're making a suboptimal decision and can likely save more in debt by retaking than you will gain in starting your career as an attorney one year earlier.


The higher your LSAT score is the lower your chances of improvement are. I have no idea why anyone with a 170 would retake(assuming they're not one of those people with GPA's in the 2's) unless they had a really bad day and still scored that. Heck once someone hits the mid 160's(I remember before taking the LSAT for take one, 163 was the score that would have convinced me not to retake) this whole conversation just seems super fringe. These people beat around 9 out of 10 people taking the test they will have good, no great options with $ if they apply smartly. What you're basically saying is if you're not better than 98-99% of people taking the test you should give it another go. Someone with a 174 and a decent GPA can be admitted ANYWHERE IN THE US and receive money from virtually every law school in the US, but yeah they should retake.


THE STRAWMAN IS GETTING ABSOLUTELY MURDERED OVER HERE.

Come on man. Get real. "The higher your LSAT score is the lower your chances of improvement are." Prove it? Okay so you had a harder time improving as your score got higher? Doesn't make it true for anyone else. To be quite honest, it almost makes MORE sense for someone with a 170 to retake than someone with a 150. If you have a 150, you shouldn't go to law school. If you've got a 170, the difference from getting literally 1 or 2 more questions right (and bumping you to a 171 or 172) is ABSOLUTELY ENORMOUS when we're talking about scholarships and such for the mid-range T14. It's way more important than the superficial bump from 150 to 154.


It's just statistical common sense and the way the test is structured. Easier to move upwards in the 140s and 150s than in the 160s and 170s. Damm you are elitist as ****.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby UVA2B » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:07 pm

I can't believe I never saw it before...

GUYZ, FERRISJO IS TRYING TO TRUMP TLS!!!!

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BlendedUnicorn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:12 pm

I mean I'm sure it is more difficult to bump your score a few points as you get closer to the tail of the curve but it's also true that it becomes exponentially more valuable to do so.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:39 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:It's great if someone scores better than 90% of other test takers. That still may not get them where they want to be, though, depending on their goals and qualifications. Like, okay, congrats, you did better than 90% of applicants, but if you have top 7% goals and/or you have a terrible GPA (for whatever reason) better than 90% may not get you there. I'm sorry that being in the top 10% doesn't guarantee what you want it to guarantee, but in this context, it doesn't.

(The year off thing still kills me. That's like the blink of an eye.)


I strongly, strongly disagree on the blink of an eye thing. I guess if I blink my eye about 60 more times I'm going to die! Also my last post referenced that those with the terrible GPA's are exceptions. And the poster I was responding to thought people with less than 175 should retake which takes it from top 8-10% to up to 1-2%.

How old are you?

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:42 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:It's great if someone scores better than 90% of other test takers. That still may not get them where they want to be, though, depending on their goals and qualifications. Like, okay, congrats, you did better than 90% of applicants, but if you have top 7% goals and/or you have a terrible GPA (for whatever reason) better than 90% may not get you there. I'm sorry that being in the top 10% doesn't guarantee what you want it to guarantee, but in this context, it doesn't.

(The year off thing still kills me. That's like the blink of an eye.)


I strongly, strongly disagree on the blink of an eye thing. I guess if I blink my eye about 60 more times I'm going to die! Also my last post referenced that those with the terrible GPA's are exceptions. And the poster I was responding to thought people with less than 175 should retake which takes it from top 8-10% to up to 1-2%.

How old are you?


21. Average person lives around 80(average male lives a tiny but shorter).

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:44 pm

I figured. It's still the blink of an eye.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby ZVBXRPL » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:47 pm

http://www.lsac.org/docs/default-source/data-(lsac-resources)-docs/repeaterdata.pdf

Data from LSAC regarding LSAT repeat takers. Apparently three people from 2012-13 retook their 179. one scored higher, one was unchanged, and one scored lower. Not sure if this has been posted already. Apologies if it has made its rounds...

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby star fox » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:49 pm

The vast majority of law students should absolutely not "just learn coding bro." They do not have the natural aptitude that will make them proficient Coders. People need to learn and recognize where their strengths are. If you aren't naturally very comfortable in Excel, you should absolutely not be gunning to be an i-Banking analyst for instance.



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