Stop Telling People to Retake

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TheSpanishMain

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby TheSpanishMain » Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:24 pm

HuntedUnicorn wrote: It's not like the world divides into law or blue collar drudgery and unemployment.


Exactly. JDM keeps arguing that a TTTT law degree can give someone a potential path to a middle class life. Which is true. But there are a multitude of other paths to the middle class, and most of them are less expensive and risky than a TTTT JD.

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Johann

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:11 pm

Paul Campos wrote:Per the most recent ABA statistics, 49% of all lawyers in private practice are solos, and 75% of lawyers are in private practice.

A lot of solos aren't really managing to make an economic go of it as lawyers, which is why the mean income for the cohort is so low (Of course the median is going to be lower). If you exclude all the people who are trying to make a living in private practice and not managing it, that certainly will help pump the income stats for lawyers.


How do you explain the "After the JD" study shows 8.7% employed as solos. I can easily explain how the Aba gets it very misleading number - a bunch of retired lawyers not quite ready to hang up their status say they are self employed when in reality they are retired. 8.7% of all graduates from the 2000 (who were admitted to the bar) class were solos in 2012-2013. That matches my experience in practice as well (and is damn near to the dot of what I estimated earlier).

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A. Nony Mouse

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:17 pm

I mean, if you want to define solo so it doesn't mean what doesn't fit your argument, sure. Just do limit the time and use a self-selected group. My experience includes a much higher percentage of solos.

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Johann

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:21 pm

bk1 wrote:Re anecdote of "all I see from my TTT is success as far as the eye can see": successful people (for a variety of reasons) are likely to surround themselves with/be surrounded by other successful people.


My experience of a very large sample size of lawyers. I'm also more up to date on actual data than anyone here. I don't really read the lst reports anymore, but I've seen them in worse economies and generally would be able to get close to the breakdown of employment for any level of school probably. Followed the after the JD study which is actually the best data on this subject as it goes a decade and more into the future capturing various snapshots along the way. Read the reports (20-30 hours) and actually browsed the data for probably close to 100 hours last summer.

sorry the actual data doesn't fit your narratives.

By the way median income for all bar passers 10 years out in all low cost living and high cost living, just of the lowest grades at the lowest ranked schools (e.g. John Marshall) is 85-95k and this was tracked through the greatest legal recession ever and second biggest economy recession ever. The worst performing of the failures according to tls make a nice upper middle class comfortable income.

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Johann

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:22 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:I mean, if you want to define solo so it doesn't mean what doesn't fit your argument, sure. Just do limit the time and use a self-selected group. My experience includes a much higher percentage of solos.


The definition is a solo attorney. One attorney. With no employees. That's what a solo is. 8.7% of the class of 2000 bar exam passers are solos.

What does someone in the ABA who wants to remain able to practice law but doesn't actually practice law check in their box? The ABA got the data wrong because their questionnaires suck.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Gitaroo_Dude » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:27 pm

HuntedUnicorn wrote:Think of it this way:

The LSAT is like running a mile
A law exam is like running the 100m in the (special) olympics

It's true that if you had good enough data you could find an average mile time for the general population and that time would probably suck and you could probably also show that most people run about the same time each time they run a mile. But it would be an absolute fallacy to conclude that therefore it wasn't worth the effort to train for the mile because you probably couldn't improve.

On the other hand, you only get one shot at a race and you don't really know how you'll do until it's over. Sure you can train hard for it, but everyone else in your heat also trained hard for it.

So what's the key to winning a medal? Sign up for a race where everyone wins. And that's what going to a top law school does for you.


Sad this got lost among the nonsense, because it's like the best analogy I've seen on retaking.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:29 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:
HuntedUnicorn wrote: It's not like the world divides into law or blue collar drudgery and unemployment.


Exactly. JDM keeps arguing that a TTTT law degree can give someone a potential path to a middle class life. Which is true. But there are a multitude of other paths to the middle class, and most of them are less expensive and risky than a TTTT JD.


Problem is once you've got a worthless undergrad you've boxed yourself in. I'd say a coding boot camp class would definitely be better than law. But as far as other jobs, not much is gonna slot you into to earn 6 figures later in life for someone with no connections that comes from a middle class background. Nursing maybe. I don't think law is that great so you won't get much push back from me if people said law sucks these careers are better. I just take issue with the if you go to John Marshall you won't even be a lawyer in 10 years when the data shows that someone who performs badly at John Marshall will on average earn 85-95k in 10 years as a LAWYER in some capacity.

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:42 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.

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Future Ex-Engineer

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:45 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


Even if you interpreted your results correctly (which you didn't), it only means you were statistically closer to the ENTIRE POPULATION MEAN, not the (expected/supposed/hypothetical) mean outcome for TLS users.

Just because you're OK with being perfectly, patently average doesn't mean the rest of us should give advice to other people to stay 'average'.
Last edited by Future Ex-Engineer on Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby lymenheimer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:46 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

(Still literally doesn't understand how numbers work including statistics (which are a vast compilation of "tons of anecdotal evidence", btw))

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby jjcorvino » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:25 pm

lymenheimer wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

(Still literally doesn't understand how numbers work including statistics (which are a vast compilation of "tons of anecdotal evidence", btw))


How many times can we explain to him how these statistics work?

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby guynourmin » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:28 pm

jjcorvino wrote:
lymenheimer wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

(Still literally doesn't understand how numbers work including statistics (which are a vast compilation of "tons of anecdotal evidence", btw))


How many times can we explain to him how these statistics work?


I literally don't think they will ever understand how statistics work.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BlendedUnicorn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:32 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:
HuntedUnicorn wrote: It's not like the world divides into law or blue collar drudgery and unemployment.


Exactly. JDM keeps arguing that a TTTT law degree can give someone a potential path to a middle class life. Which is true. But there are a multitude of other paths to the middle class, and most of them are less expensive and risky than a TTTT JD.


Problem is once you've got a worthless undergrad you've boxed yourself in. I'd say a coding boot camp class would definitely be better than law. But as far as other jobs, not much is gonna slot you into to earn 6 figures later in life for someone with no connections that comes from a middle class background. Nursing maybe. I don't think law is that great so you won't get much push back from me if people said law sucks these careers are better. I just take issue with the if you go to John Marshall you won't even be a lawyer in 10 years when the data shows that someone who performs badly at John Marshall will on average earn 85-95k in 10 years as a LAWYER in some capacity.


The data most definitely does not show that. I know you've been leaning hard on the After the JD data but there's tons of problems with that:

a) Massive structural changes to the legal market over the past 10-20 years means that the classes the study measures won't necessarily have similar outcomes to the classes that graduate today
b) Response bias- the ABA naturally will have much better luck getting responses from people who are a) still lawyers and b) successful for something like that.


I'm sure there are more issues and I'm sure you're aware of them. I'm not disputing that it's possible to go to JM or a similarly positioned school and succeed but I still think you're overstating the ease and underestimating the viability of non-law alternatives.

I also think that now is a particularly bad time to go to a school that leans heavily on state level employment in Illinois.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Johann » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:34 pm

If you guys understand stats, you all fucked up going to law school instead of being an actuary. But sadly, no one in here really understands stats right now. He's right that the average persons lsat score will not improve significantly. Y'all are right that a retake is close to a free roll and you shouldn't settle/project that you'll only get the average outcome of no to minimal improvement.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:43 pm

mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


Even if you interpreted your results correctly (which you didn't), it only means you were statistically closer to the ENTIRE POPULATION MEAN, not the (expected/supposed/hypothetical) mean outcome for TLS users.

Just because you're OK with being perfectly, patently average doesn't mean the rest of us should give advice to other people to stay 'average'.


I was referring to the mean increases for retakes,not the mean score.

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:45 pm

Do you people understand sample size?

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby cavalier1138 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:50 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:The point is you actually suck at analyzing risk because you're so risk averse that you just don't do risky things whereas people who do analyze risk because everything they've done is a risk because they've never had anything handed to them understand risk analysis.


Oh, fuck right off with that. Fuck right the hell off.

I promise that I've lived on less income than you, and I sure as hell didn't have my income handed to me. I really was giving you the benefit of the doubt, but seriously: fuck you.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby BlendedUnicorn » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:52 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:Do you people understand sample size?


LOL!

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Future Ex-Engineer

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:59 pm

HuntedUnicorn wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:Do you people understand sample size?


LOL!


180

But seriously. :?: :?: :?: :?:

The whole point is you can't compare people here and people here asking for advice to the general population. I don't care how big your sample size is for the masses as a whole - they aren't representative of a self-selecting group of high scorers

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Future Ex-Engineer » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:01 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:
mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


Even if you interpreted your results correctly (which you didn't), it only means you were statistically closer to the ENTIRE POPULATION MEAN, not the (expected/supposed/hypothetical) mean outcome for TLS users.

Just because you're OK with being perfectly, patently average doesn't mean the rest of us should give advice to other people to stay 'average'.


I was referring to the mean increases for retakes,not the mean score.


If that's what you were referring to, then again you were misinterpreting the data. The mean increase for second timers is something like 2.6 points, and the mean increase for third timers is something like 2.2 points on top of that.

What you were referencing was the overall mean score distribution for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time takers.

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby waldorf » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:06 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:The point is you actually suck at analyzing risk because you're so risk averse that you just don't do risky things whereas people who do analyze risk because everything they've done is a risk because they've never had anything handed to them understand risk analysis.


Eh, I think this is a valid point. I think a lot of people (especially KJDs, or 1-2 years WE) who were able to graduate from undergrad with zero debt tend to be a lot more risk averse simply because they know how nice it is to not deal with FAFSA/loans, etc. and don't want to ever have to. Then again, if you're already 50k in debt from undergrad, or you know what it's like to be literally dirt poor, you're probably going to be more risk averse because you don't want to add another 250k to your debt load. It's definitely a case by case basis though. Personally, I am incredibly privileged and grateful to have zero undergrad debt, so the appeal of never having to pay back a single student loan is veryyyyyy high, which makes me very debt averse.

*edited for typos
Last edited by waldorf on Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Colonel_funkadunk

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Colonel_funkadunk » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:12 pm

itt ferrisjso spends a lot of wasted time trying to justify to himself why he shouldnt attempt a retake

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:36 pm

I am risk adverse all of you are just extremists. Lots of 0L's look at me pretty similar to the way I look at you, debt at high interest rates with low employment options is a problem and a lot of people are super naive about it but again you guys take it WAY to far.

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Ferrisjso

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby Ferrisjso » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:37 pm

mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
mrgstephe wrote:
Ferrisjso wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:I am actually fine with ferrisjo doing that. I just don't think he should extrapolate from his own experience to everyone on this site.


How is that different than people who get massive score increases off of retakes telling people that waiting a year is a good idea? Statistically my outcome is closer to the mean(slight improvement second time,decline third time). Again never encouraged people not to retake if they didnt have to take a year off(and if i did they were in great situations where they shouldnt have had to retake), also if youre upset with me giving that advice ,im mostly going to stop( at least woth those who havent applied) because at this point even without a retake a better outcome next year is basically ensured nm with one. Think taking a year off is a considerable burden to many people and statistically it probably wont pay off. The tons of anecdotal evidence on here is misleading. If one is confident they havent done their best they should wait (in general not this year) but not because theyre convinced by others that waiting a year is worth it to roll the dice again.


Even if you interpreted your results correctly (which you didn't), it only means you were statistically closer to the ENTIRE POPULATION MEAN, not the (expected/supposed/hypothetical) mean outcome for TLS users.

Just because you're OK with being perfectly, patently average doesn't mean the rest of us should give advice to other people to stay 'average'.


I was referring to the mean increases for retakes,not the mean score.


If that's what you were referring to, then again you were misinterpreting the data. The mean increase for second timers is something like 2.6 points, and the mean increase for third timers is something like 2.2 points on top of that.

What you were referencing was the overall mean score distribution for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd time takers.


I thought we'd already proven that wrong yesterday?

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Re: Stop Telling People to Retake

Postby cavalier1138 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:38 pm

Ferrisjso wrote:I am risk adverse all of you are just extremists. Lots of 0L's look at me pretty similar to the way I look at you, debt at high interest rates with low employment options is a problem and a lot of people are super naive about it but again you guys take it WAY to far.


Where is the "too far" in this?

You keep on claiming that people are extremists, when you have repeatedly made incorrect statements about earning potential and ability to pay off debt in prior threads. No one's being extreme; you're just being unrealistic.



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