personofinterest wrote:Based on mylsn.info (aggregator of lawschoolnumbers), you can get a pretty good idea of medians for the lower T14 and the rest of the T20. Here is what I think will happen based on that:
Penn - 169
UVA - 169
Michigan - 169
NU - 169
Berkeley - 167
Texas - 167
Georgetown - 167
UCLA - 167
Cornell - 166
Vandy - 166
WashU - 166
USC - 165
I really doubt that all of Penn/UVA/Duke/NU/Mich hold onto or go to 169s- there simply aren't enough 169+ scores to go around.
There are 9 schools with medians of 169 or higher right now. The final data indicates we have 2,993 applicants who scored a 169 or higher. Based on Class of 2019 class sizes, those 9 schools would need 1,358 of them to attend their schools in order to maintain a median of 169- just 169 mind you, not the 170, 171 etc some have. When you factor in that Harvard and Yale are definitely not going to drop below a 169 25th, then we're actually looking at 1,550 of our 169+ scorers being eaten up just to keep those existing medians. So 52% of our 169+ scorers are necessary just for 9 schools to keep existing medians. And that's assuming that 100% of our applicants actually attend- I'm a 169+ scorer who applied but elected not to attend in 2017, and I'm sure there are more.
Then you've got to consider the schools with 169+ 75ths not already accounted for- Berk, Mich, Northwestern, WashU. If they want to keep those we need another 262 169+ scorers, bringing us to 1,812 of our pool. That's 60.5% of the total.
Then you've gotta consider that a lot of our 167 and 168 median schools (Cornell, Georgetown, NU, Berk, Mich, UT, Vandy, WashU, UCLA etc) need 169 scorers to balance out 165, 166 etc to hold medians at the 167 to 168 range. Plus consider that the total pool of 167/168 scorers was down a few percent. Many of them (Cornell, NU, Mich, UT, Vandy, WashU) are known to be extremely generous in offering 169+ scorers scholarship $$$ to attract them. They eat up a huge portion of that pool.
So when we look at it, we just don't have enough high scoring applicants to keep medians at a lot of these places. I also doubt we'll see schools cut class size very much, for reasons Spivey has gone into at length. I think we're going to see most of them cling to existing medians, with a few dropping a point (I'm going to guess NYU loses a point, huge class size makes it tough, Columbia too since theirs is so high at 172 that's just tough to sustain). The 75ths are where I think we'll really see the hit- I bet we see at least half the t-14 lose a point or more in their 75ths, particularly those at 170 or above.