Planned Transfer Forum

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Apple4321

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Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:38 pm

What are the pros and cons of transferring? Can a free first year be enough to justify planning on transferring after the first year?

I received two full tuition scholarships from schools that I have little or no intentions of graduation from. I am torn between accepting one of the offers and transferring the first year or going to a school that I like and would be happy to graduate from but did not award me with a scholarship. There are three major incentives for doing this: save $30,000+, have an easier 1L, and the possibility of being able to transfer to a better school that wouldn't be possible with my undergraduate GPA and LSAT. These incentives are similar to why people go to community colleges during their undergraduate endeavors.

All insight to the following is appreciated:
1. Getting credits to transfer
2. How it affects employment prospects
3. How it affects student organization participation

Thanks!

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Nachoo2019 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:47 pm

Apple4321 wrote:What are the pros and cons of transferring? Can a free first year be enough to justify planning on transferring after the first year?

I received two full tuition scholarships from schools that I have little or no intentions of graduation from. I am torn between accepting one of the offers and transferring the first year or going to a school that I like and would be happy to graduate from but did not award me with a scholarship. There are three major incentives for doing this: save $30,000+, have an easier 1L, and the possibility of being able to transfer to a better school that wouldn't be possible with my undergraduate GPA and LSAT. These incentives are similar to why people go to community colleges during their undergraduate endeavors.

All insight to the following is appreciated:
1. Getting credits to transfer
2. How it affects employment prospects
3. How it affects student organization participation

Thanks!
LOL. DO NOT GO TO A SCHOOL YOU ARE NOT HAPPY GRADUATING FROM :roll:

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by seagan823 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:50 pm

Apple4321 wrote:What are the pros and cons of transferring? Can a free first year be enough to justify planning on transferring after the first year?

I received two full tuition scholarships from schools that I have little or no intentions of graduation from. I am torn between accepting one of the offers and transferring the first year or going to a school that I like and would be happy to graduate from but did not award me with a scholarship. There are three major incentives for doing this: save $30,000+, have an easier 1L, and the possibility of being able to transfer to a better school that wouldn't be possible with my undergraduate GPA and LSAT. These incentives are similar to why people go to community colleges during their undergraduate endeavors.

All insight to the following is appreciated:
1. Getting credits to transfer
2. How it affects employment prospects
3. How it affects student organization participation

Thanks!
The general sentiment on TLS is that this is a bad plan because it is very difficult to know how you are going to do in law school. Generally the advice is don't try this sort of thing until you max out your potential LSAT score/attempts because it is much safer and easier to improve your LSAT score than to count on doing incredibly well your 1L year. You can take the LSAT at your own pace and study until you have it right. You only can do 1L once and after you start it you can't redo it. If something were to happen in your life that severely affected your ability to do well, you might be out of luck with poor grades. But if that happened at a top school, you could still recover because of the reputation of the school. In addition, I believe that scholarships for transfers are harder to get than they are coming straight into school


In terms of employment prospects, I have seen a lot of things on this forum about transfers having some barriers at OCI.

I am a 0L, so take this advice with that in mind. This is just what I have seen on TLS.

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emkay625

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by emkay625 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:51 pm

This is not a good idea.

First, never assume you will be able to transfer. Law school grading can be very subjective, so it's not safe to assume that just because your LSAT score is several points above median that you will be at the top of your class. Shit happens.

Second, it will negatively impact your employment prospects. At many schools, transfers do not get to participate in OCI. And even if you transfer to a school that does allow you to participate in OCI, many firms will view your transfer status as a negative, because you were competing for those grades at a much easier school.

Finally, it will be impossible/much more difficult for you to get on law review.

Edited to add: many schools do whatever they can to make it hard for you to transfer. Professors are reluctant to write rec letters, some scholarships have stipulations that say you must pay it back if you transfer, etc.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Foghornleghorn » Thu Apr 28, 2016 2:58 pm

Read the vale of tears. Read every page. And then revisit your "I will just transfer out of my shitty career prospects school" notion.

You're playing a dangerous game with your life and career.

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reasonable_man

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by reasonable_man » Thu Apr 28, 2016 3:01 pm

Apple4321 wrote:What are the pros and cons of transferring? Can a free first year be enough to justify planning on transferring after the first year?

I received two full tuition scholarships from schools that I have little or no intentions of graduation from. I am torn between accepting one of the offers and transferring the first year or going to a school that I like and would be happy to graduate from but did not award me with a scholarship. There are three major incentives for doing this: save $30,000+, have an easier 1L, and the possibility of being able to transfer to a better school that wouldn't be possible with my undergraduate GPA and LSAT. These incentives are similar to why people go to community colleges during their undergraduate endeavors.

All insight to the following is appreciated:
1. Getting credits to transfer
2. How it affects employment prospects
3. How it affects student organization participation

Thanks!
There are probably a bajillion threads on this already but here it goes.

Only attend a school from which you feel comfortable graduating at the 50% mark of the class.

Each year, countless students get tremendous scholarships and ultimately lose them. They are lost because the student did not meet the grade stipulation of the scholarship award.

Now I know you plan on being in the top 5 to 10% of your class and I know that you're very comfortable with the academic skills you've acquired over the years. However, what you must realize is that 90 to 95% of your class will not be in the top 5 to 10% and as hard to believe as this may be, you may be one of those that fall outside of the top 5 to 10%. Let that sink in for just a bit. Its crucial that you understand this and respect this possibility as a real thing.

Transferring requires the alignment of lots of things:
1) You kill it academically. Law school grading can be arbitrary. Missing a single issue on one test can be the difference between an A and B. The curve is designed to fuck you. Schools that give out big scholarships often stack sections with the recipients of those scholarships to force the curve to eliminate some of the people receiving money. Assuming that because you are a smart person and did well in U-grad that you will do just as well in law school is not a safe logical leap to make.

2) Schools that people transfer from hate losing money and make it hard to transfer. They release grades late. Professors hold up letters of recommendation. Registrars "forget" to send transcripts. The deadline for transfer applications can be very tight and getting everything you need together can be difficult.

3) Many schools make it hard for incoming 2L Transfers to participate in OCI and many firms are less interested in transfer candidates because its not easy to judge a 3.9 GPA from Brooklyn against a 3.82 GPA from Harvard. So why bother? Just interview students that started off and completed 1L at the school (and ignore the transfers).

4) Less of a reason to avoid transferring - people form friendships and bonds during 1L. You'll spend the rest of the 2-years at your transfer school trying to wedge your way in.

As noted in other posts above. You're playing a very dangerous game by considering this option. I'd avoid it at all costs.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:16 pm

Thank you, all, for your responses and valuable insight. You all made some great points. To be completely honest, I wanted to hear that it was a bad idea to go to a school that you plan to transfer out of. It's just hard to turn down a 'free' first year.

Another point that I thought of is that if I'm really all right with transferring, why not go to the best school I can and transfer from there. Yes, it will cost more, but long term it will pay off (if I really could transfer up to a school that I couldn't from one of the full ride schools). Additionally, that way I'd be starting at the better school--a school that I'd be proud to graduate from and would have great career prospects. The cost of one year's tuition seems like a relatively small price to pay for that luxury.

I understand that virtually everyone that can get into third tier schools and up have the option of settling for a scholarship from a lower tier school and transferring up. It was very valuable to hear the logic of why this approach in uncommon.

Thanks again!

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by timmyd » Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:32 pm

I always feel hypocritical to a degree responding to these. I was able to escape the desolate lower tiered landscape for greener pastures and ultimately secure, what I consider to be, a great outcome. But looking back, I would have done it completely differently. I'm of the mindset that if you're able to get top grades at most law schools, you're likely smart enough to get into the schools you want to transfer into in the first place if you just dedicate yourself to garnering acceptance. So just do it the traditional way.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by barkschool » Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:43 pm

you should do what you feel in your heart Apple4321 :roll:

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LandMermaid

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by LandMermaid » Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:08 pm

Apple4321 wrote:Thank you, all, for your responses and valuable insight. You all made some great points. To be completely honest, I wanted to hear that it was a bad idea to go to a school that you plan to transfer out of. It's just hard to turn down a 'free' first year.

Another point that I thought of is that if I'm really all right with transferring, why not go to the best school I can and transfer from there. Yes, it will cost more, but long term it will pay off (if I really could transfer up to a school that I couldn't from one of the full ride schools). Additionally, that way I'd be starting at the better school--a school that I'd be proud to graduate from and would have great career prospects. The cost of one year's tuition seems like a relatively small price to pay for that luxury.

I understand that virtually everyone that can get into third tier schools and up have the option of settling for a scholarship from a lower tier school and transferring up. It was very valuable to hear the logic of why this approach in uncommon.

Thanks again!
Just to be clear, everyone vehemently advising against planning on transferring isn't by elimination advising you to pay lots of money to attend a higher ranked school, especially without knowing what school it is. That is also probably a bad idea.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by psu2016 » Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:43 pm

timmyd wrote:I always feel hypocritical to a degree responding to these. I was able to escape the desolate lower tiered landscape for greener pastures and ultimately secure, what I consider to be, a great outcome. But looking back, I would have done it completely differently. I'm of the mindset that if you're able to get top grades at most law schools, you're likely smart enough to get into the schools you want to transfer into in the first place if you just dedicate yourself to garnering acceptance. So just do it the traditional way.
It's not hypocritical at all. The difference between you and the OP is that you proved yourself once in law school whereas OP thinks he's just going to coast in, kill it, and move on. There's always going to be a top a top of a TTT class, the problem is anticipating who will be in that top.

I agree with you about the people at the top being smart enough to get in everywhere. As someone at the top of a TTT(soon to be TTTT), I very much wish I had put the time in to killing the LSAT and getting HYS, but hindsight is 20/20 and I'm happy with my outcome.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by barkschool » Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:52 pm

psu2016 wrote:
timmyd wrote:I always feel hypocritical to a degree responding to these. I was able to escape the desolate lower tiered landscape for greener pastures and ultimately secure, what I consider to be, a great outcome. But looking back, I would have done it completely differently. I'm of the mindset that if you're able to get top grades at most law schools, you're likely smart enough to get into the schools you want to transfer into in the first place if you just dedicate yourself to garnering acceptance. So just do it the traditional way.
It's not hypocritical at all. The difference between you and the OP is that you proved yourself once in law school whereas OP thinks he's just going to coast in, kill it, and move on. There's always going to be a top a top of a TTT class, the problem is anticipating who will be in that top.

I agree with you about the people at the top being smart enough to get in everywhere. As someone at the top of a TTT(soon to be TTTT), I very much wish I had put the time in to killing the LSAT and getting HYS, but hindsight is 20/20 and I'm happy with my outcome.
yo, you should transfer tho.

OP don't go to law school you'll be poor.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 2:39 pm

Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.

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LandMermaid

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by LandMermaid » Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:45 pm

Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:32 pm

LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."

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asdfdfdfadfas

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:21 pm

Apple4321 wrote:
LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."
This has nothing to do with Game Theory and you aren't the first person who knows how to do "statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities".There are multiple threads on this forum discussing this topic and they have all generally concluded trying to go to a t-50 or whatever and thinking you are going to transfer out is a bad idea. The easiest way to get into the t-14 or a higher ranked school you want to go to is to have a competitive LSAT score and a competitive GPA.

I would suggest listening to all of the prior poster's advice.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by LandMermaid » Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:26 pm

Apple4321 wrote:
LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."
By all means I would love to be able to confidently predict exactly what percent of my class I'll fall into. That would be an incredible thing. I'm just not convinced yet that it's at all possible to be confident enough in the prediction to be worth the risks of being wrong. But if you have solid calculations id love to hear them.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:34 pm

LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:
LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."
By all means I would love to be able to confidently predict exactly what percent of my class I'll fall into. That would be an incredible thing. I'm just not convinced yet that it's at all possible to be confident enough in the prediction to be worth the risks of being wrong. But if you have solid calculations id love to hear them.
Private message me your phone number for a walkthrough and/or your email for the spreadsheet (can't PM attachments).

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by PeanutsNJam » Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:44 pm

Apple4321 wrote:
LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."
You're completely ignoring the fact that GPA/LSAT are terrible indicators of law school performance. I am at a T20 (easy to figure out which one from context or stalking my posting) with a ~2.5 uGPA and a 172. Was in the upper area of top 5% at the end of the fall. I know someone with a 3.0-3.5 uGPA and a ~170. Median. I know someone with a 3.0-3.5 and a ~170. Median. I know two people who came here with full scholarship + stipend. Both below median. I know someone who came here with a ~3.8 uGPA (edited because not median uGPA) and <25th percentile LSAT. Top third. You could very easily be one of those full scholly people below median. There are tons of them.

Also, just to add, I don't know the pre-law school stats/first semester grade combination for anybody else. What are the odds that everybody I know of is an outlier to your perceived norm?
Last edited by PeanutsNJam on Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by psu2016 » Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:47 pm

PeanutsNJam wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:
LandMermaid wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.
How on earth are you calculating your "expected outcomes"... LSAT and uGPA aren't valid enough predictors at all and I don't even know what else you would use besides "oh this percent of the class gets this grade, that seems like a lot and since I got a full scholly I will do better than the people that got less money" which isn't at all true. The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student...
Are you actually interested in learning the statistical analysis behind calculating probabilities of such problems, or are you simply stating that you don't understand how it can be done and, therefore, it can't be done? This is basic game theory. Probabilities are just probabilities. It is, by know means, predicting the future with certainty. Yes, this requires some degree of speculation. But it requires far less speculation than saying, "The person with the highest GPA/highest LSAT in the entering class isn't going to be the top student."
You're completely ignoring the fact that GPA/LSAT are terrible indicators of law school performance. I am at a T20 (easy to figure out which one from context or stalking my posting) with a ~2.5 uGPA and a 172. Was in the upper area of top 5% at the end of the fall. I know someone with a 3.0-3.5 uGPA and a ~170. Median. I know someone with a 3.0-3.5 and a ~170. Median. I know two people who came here with full scholarship + stipend. Both below median. I know someone who came here with a median uGPA and <25th percentile LSAT. Top third. You could very easily be one of those full scholly people below median. There are tons of them.
Stop letting facts and reason get in the way of Apple's statistical modeling.

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PeanutsNJam

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by PeanutsNJam » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:00 pm

Also consider that if your full scholarship options aren't in the T1, you're going to need astronomically good grades to transfer to a school that could get you biglaw (if that's your goal) or any other competitive positions. Although, if you got such high grades, you could probably just get biglaw from that school, depending on what school it is.

I'm also not sure how it's possible at all to calculate the statistical odds of being in the top 10% with a given GPA/LSAT with only a school's 25%, median, and 75% GPA/LSAT. I'd be curious to see this magical spreadsheet, why not link it in this thread? What are the "grading policies" and "other stats" that you've looked at, and how do you access them?

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reasonable_man

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by reasonable_man » Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:35 pm

Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.

Dear lord. I have to stop coming to this site. Forget what I said above. Go to the lower ranked school and transfer up. You'll be fine. Really. The statistical analysis has been done and so all is well.

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asdfdfdfadfas

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by asdfdfdfadfas » Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:08 am

reasonable_man wrote:
Apple4321 wrote:Thanks, everyone!

psu2016, prospective law students tend to be optimistic. We can look past the gloomy, dejected legal market and ignore horror stories. With our immense confirmation biases, we tend to develop a positive bias; we see through our optimistic lenses. That being said, I have looked at the entering class statistics, grading policies, and other stats to develop spreadsheets to calculate expected outcomes. It is safe for me to conclude that I have a higher chance of being in the top 10% of the two full tuition schools than the top 50% of the school that I like. However, I am very confident that both are very attainable. Thank you for your concern.

barkschool, I wouldn't be concerned with the people that are analyzing the economics of investing in a law degree. However, if you're really concerned with people ending up poor, I'd watch out for the people that are not concerned with the total cost of a Juris Doctor degree because they think that debt is always their solution.

Dear lord. I have to stop coming to this site. Forget what I said above. Go to the lower ranked school and transfer up. You'll be fine. Really. The statistical analysis has been done and so all is well.
I agree and borrow as much money as you can as well. Statistically once you get that biglaw job you are entitled to they will at least offer you 200k a year so who cares.

Plus, I've also heard Biglaw isn't really that bad. Just an FYI.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by timmyd » Sat Apr 30, 2016 5:07 pm

OP:
You sound like a massive douche. Sorry. You think you've unlocked some statistical analysis that will predict class rate to such a certain degree as to be more fool proof than taking the last again and improving your application package? Ha ok, man. I'm assuming you're going to, at the highest, a tt school. You're banking on being, at the very lowest Top15% of the class. And why go to the lower ranked school in the first place? You obviously don't care about cost because you intend to pay full freight as a transfer. Go to the higher ranked school if you want to transfer. It will be easier. Going to a tt-tttt school hoping to transfer into the t20/t14 is astoundingly dumb. Good luck.

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Re: Planned Transfer

Post by Apple4321 » Mon May 02, 2016 2:12 pm

timmyd wrote:OP:
You sound like a massive douche. Sorry. You think you've unlocked some statistical analysis that will predict class rate to such a certain degree as to be more fool proof than taking the last again and improving your application package? Ha ok, man. I'm assuming you're going to, at the highest, a tt school. You're banking on being, at the very lowest Top15% of the class. And why go to the lower ranked school in the first place? You obviously don't care about cost because you intend to pay full freight as a transfer. Go to the higher ranked school if you want to transfer. It will be easier. Going to a tt-tttt school hoping to transfer into the t20/t14 is astoundingly dumb. Good luck.
I'm really not trying to offend anyone or come off as arrogant. I'm a 0L that doesn't have the luxury of seeing how I'll do 1L to determine if this is a legitimate option. I have to decide within the next two weeks what to do. This is, after all, an admissions forum. I think it'd be a little strange if the questions weren't being asked by 0Ls and the speculative nature should be expected. None of us have a crystal ball, yet we're all trying to optimize our future outcomes. I didn't say I want to transfer into a t14, that I'm a guy, or that I want to pursue biglaw. The assumptions you all are making are unfounded.

Let's take out the stats and take out the transfer plan. Look at Emory's 509 required disclosure form. They accept transfer students from the worst schools (i.e. John Marshall, Charleston, Florida A&M, Florida Coastal, Valparaiso, and Whittier). Literally, they take students from schools in the bottom 10% of all of the schools. Isn't it reasonable to say that at least some students would have a very high chance of getting into the top 10% of the aforementioned TTTT schools? And what I would be doing wouldn't even be that radical of a leap! I wasn't asking you people if you think I could do it or not; I was asking what the pros and the cons with the assumption that you can.

Also, with your logic, are scholarships that require you to be <25% of your class just so unreasonable that they're basically worthless? Of course not. It provides a major incentive and motivator with a payoff that has a high probability for some people. I'm telling you that if I couldn't get top 15% of the schools that I'm looking to transfer from, I'd belong there because I'd struggle immensely at the schools I want to go to.

Seriously? What are you waiting for?

Now there's a charge.
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