How accurate is Law School Numbers?

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Drake014
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby Drake014 » Sun Jun 21, 2009 11:50 pm

conn09 wrote:
Dwaterman86 wrote:
conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)


Good set of data, but I think you drew the wrong conclusion. I think that data provides a lot of evidence that LSN is actually quite accurate.

According to that data, 100 people were admitted with an LSAT under 165, but this was out of 1550 total admissions.

Thats a 14:1 ratio. 14 admits 165 and up, for every admit under 165.

If you look at the LSN chart, I would say that is exactly what it is showing.



Yeah, but the general consensus here and places like that has typically been that you need at least a high 160 to even have any kind of shot to get into a school like that. And that the only people who get into those schools with numbers under are URM.


sigh :(

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stab master arson
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby stab master arson » Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:00 am

While you do occasionally see LSN profiles like this one, I really doubt TLS numbers are a more representative sample than LSN. For one thing, it seems to me that most people here don't bother completely filling in their profile. I certainly didn't. Second, since this is "TOP" Law Schools, wouldn't that skew the numbers more to the higher end? There doesn't appear to be any such leaning at LSN. There appear to be far more users with complete profiles at LSN than here. LSN isn't perfect by any means, but I reckon it's better as a general gauge than anything else out there.

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ruleser
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby ruleser » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:40 pm

Bumping this thread with a thought and question: LSN's graphs for this year seem very high - like UCLA for example - their 75th LSAT is listed by them at 168, but on the graph 168 is barely even 25th. Either there has been a huge jump this year or..... which leads to my question: has anyone seen how LSN changes from this time of year to the end? What it lists are acceptances, not people who actually attend - for example, go to Loyola Law school and most of the accepts are high 160's or 170's, but the numbers in the end are nowhere near that. So maybe this is a bad time of year to judge, because you have to wait to see til the end when all the waitlist movement/deposit deadlines, etc. go and I bet a lot of the numbers go down - if you check those profiles, those UCLA 170's are also usually in at Michigan, NYU, etc. and will likely take those.

Thoughts?

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doyleoil
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby doyleoil » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:45 pm

ruleser wrote:Bumping this thread with a thought and question: LSN's graphs for this year seem very high - like UCLA for example - their 75th LSAT is listed by them at 168, but on the graph 168 is barely even 25th. Either there has been a huge jump this year or..... which leads to my question: has anyone seen how LSN changes from this time of year to the end? What it lists are acceptances, not people who actually attend - for example, go to Loyola Law school and most of the accepts are high 160's or 170's, but the numbers in the end are nowhere near that. So maybe this is a bad time of year to judge, because you have to wait to see til the end when all the waitlist movement/deposit deadlines, etc. go and I bet a lot of the numbers go down - if you check those profiles, those UCLA 170's are also usually in at Michigan, NYU, etc. and will likely take those.

Thoughts?


it's a good time of year to look, in terms of your "chances," because it will show you if your chance of getting in is good, not that it merely exists

it's not a good time of year to look to see what the numbers of an entering class will be, though, cuz you can't be sure what the yield will be like

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im_blue
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby im_blue » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:51 pm

ruleser wrote:Bumping this thread with a thought and question: LSN's graphs for this year seem very high - like UCLA for example - their 75th LSAT is listed by them at 168, but on the graph 168 is barely even 25th. Either there has been a huge jump this year or..... which leads to my question: has anyone seen how LSN changes from this time of year to the end? What it lists are acceptances, not people who actually attend - for example, go to Loyola Law school and most of the accepts are high 160's or 170's, but the numbers in the end are nowhere near that. So maybe this is a bad time of year to judge, because you have to wait to see til the end when all the waitlist movement/deposit deadlines, etc. go and I bet a lot of the numbers go down - if you check those profiles, those UCLA 170's are also usually in at Michigan, NYU, etc. and will likely take those.

Thoughts?


UCLA's medians are 3.74/168, so we would expect 168 to land at the lower end of the acceptance distribution. However, if you search for all 3.7x/168 applicants, you'll see that all 6 were accepted, which looks pretty accurate to me.

http://ucla.lawschoolnumbers.com/applic ... ,7&type=jd

Similarly, Duke has medians of 3.74/169 and you'll see that 10/13 of 3.7x/169 were accepted:
http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/applic ... ,7&type=jd
Last edited by im_blue on Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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jewtangclan03
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby jewtangclan03 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:56 pm

Assuming you are neither a heavy splitter nor an URM, you can use lsn, tls stats, chiashu, lawschoolcalculator.com, etc. and predict your cycle with about 90-95% accuracy i'd say.

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ruleser
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby ruleser » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:01 pm

doyleoil wrote:
ruleser wrote:Bumping this thread with a thought and question: LSN's graphs for this year seem very high - like UCLA for example - their 75th LSAT is listed by them at 168, but on the graph 168 is barely even 25th. Either there has been a huge jump this year or..... which leads to my question: has anyone seen how LSN changes from this time of year to the end? What it lists are acceptances, not people who actually attend - for example, go to Loyola Law school and most of the accepts are high 160's or 170's, but the numbers in the end are nowhere near that. So maybe this is a bad time of year to judge, because you have to wait to see til the end when all the waitlist movement/deposit deadlines, etc. go and I bet a lot of the numbers go down - if you check those profiles, those UCLA 170's are also usually in at Michigan, NYU, etc. and will likely take those.

Thoughts?


it's a good time of year to look, in terms of your "chances," because it will show you if your chance of getting in is good, not that it merely exists

it's not a good time of year to look to see what the numbers of an entering class will be, though, cuz you can't be sure what the yield will be like


This helps to get at what my real question is then (or what I need to know to decide whether to defer to next cycle) - what the picture looks like at the end of the waitlist/deposit cycle - from what I see, I can possibly expect WL's at a number of my target schools, UCLA, Cornell, USC, but what I'm trying to figure is if that really just means rejection or if those have any real chance to get in - in all liklihood that'll be me next cycle, WL WL WL at all my targets. I guess the only way to know that is to wait, no? This was such a waitlist heavy year, it makes a huge difference for a borderline app like me if those WL's just float away or get in...

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doyleoil
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby doyleoil » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:05 pm

ruleser wrote:
doyleoil wrote:
ruleser wrote:Bumping this thread with a thought and question: LSN's graphs for this year seem very high - like UCLA for example - their 75th LSAT is listed by them at 168, but on the graph 168 is barely even 25th. Either there has been a huge jump this year or..... which leads to my question: has anyone seen how LSN changes from this time of year to the end? What it lists are acceptances, not people who actually attend - for example, go to Loyola Law school and most of the accepts are high 160's or 170's, but the numbers in the end are nowhere near that. So maybe this is a bad time of year to judge, because you have to wait to see til the end when all the waitlist movement/deposit deadlines, etc. go and I bet a lot of the numbers go down - if you check those profiles, those UCLA 170's are also usually in at Michigan, NYU, etc. and will likely take those.

Thoughts?


it's a good time of year to look, in terms of your "chances," because it will show you if your chance of getting in is good, not that it merely exists

it's not a good time of year to look to see what the numbers of an entering class will be, though, cuz you can't be sure what the yield will be like


This helps to get at what my real question is then (or what I need to know to decide whether to defer to next cycle) - what the picture looks like at the end of the waitlist/deposit cycle - from what I see, I can possibly expect WL's at a number of my target schools, UCLA, Cornell, USC, but what I'm trying to figure is if that really just means rejection or if those have any real chance to get in - in all liklihood that'll be me next cycle, WL WL WL at all my targets. I guess the only way to know that is to wait, no? This was such a waitlist heavy year, it makes a huge difference for a borderline app like me if those WL's just float away or get in...


i see what you're saying - i don't think it's ever a good idea to rely on waitlist action in a given year as a predictor of whether you might also expect a WL-in during the next cycle - the interview with dean trujillo from uva kinda made that clear, when he said that it was impossible for him to know from year to year how many people they would be drawing from their wl (i expect it's similar at every school, and even more unpredictable as you go down the u.s. news rankings scale)

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ruleser
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby ruleser » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:09 pm

doyleoil wrote:
i see what you're saying - i don't think it's ever a good idea to rely on waitlist action in a given year as a predictor of whether you might also expect a WL-in during the next cycle - the interview with dean trujillo from uva kinda made that clear, when he said that it was impossible for him to know from year to year how many people they would be drawing from their wl (i expect it's similar at every school, and even more unpredictable as you go down the u.s. news rankings scale)


So I kind of have to figure those as rejects? Which means no ins at any targets...

Just took above posters advice and went the lawschoolcalculator.com and it gave me 25% at Cornell, 8% at Chicago - doubt those are accurate, but would be thrilled if somehow they were.

hiro86
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby hiro86 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:50 pm

Everyone knows that the 25/75 percentiles for schools are based on students who attend, right? The 25/75 for accepted (regardless of whether they attend) students will be higher 99% of the time.

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lawlover829
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby lawlover829 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:52 pm

good idea.

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doyleoil
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby doyleoil » Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:53 pm

hiro86 wrote: The 25/75 for accepted (regardless of whether they attend) students will be higher 99% of the time.


credited - the 1% is, what, cooley? ;)

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ruleser
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby ruleser » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:04 pm

hiro86 wrote:Everyone knows that the 25/75 percentiles for schools are based on students who attend, right? The 25/75 for accepted (regardless of whether they attend) students will be higher 99% of the time.


Brilliant - this is exactly what I was trying to get at. Is there any data about accepted GPA/LSATs vs. attended? That could help to determine whether number are really higher this year as LSN shows or if this is just the accepted numbers and final admitted tends to be lower. Anyone know if admit vs. accept info exists?

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doyleoil
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby doyleoil » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:05 pm

ruleser wrote:
hiro86 wrote:Everyone knows that the 25/75 percentiles for schools are based on students who attend, right? The 25/75 for accepted (regardless of whether they attend) students will be higher 99% of the time.


Brilliant - this is exactly what I was trying to get at. Is there any data about accepted GPA/LSATs vs. attended? That could help to determine whether number are really higher this year as LSN shows or if this is just the accepted numbers and final admitted tends to be lower. Anyone know if admit vs. accept info exists?


no - but soon enough schools will be updating the new numbers for their entering classes on their websites (expect it to start happening in mid-late august maybe?)

hiro86
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby hiro86 » Thu Jul 02, 2009 11:33 pm

Concerning fake profiles on LSN, I generally assume that if it looks like someone put some time into putting extra info like scholarships, dates, softs, etc that the profile is real. Even then, I don't worry about it too much unless the profile is an outlier.

I think LSN graphs are the best place to go when looking at your chances, TLS stats is good also. The predictor isn't bad either, but I think that is more helpful for giving you a general idea of what range of schools are targets, safeties, reaches, etc. Whenever I respond to a "what are my chances?" thread I almost always use the corresponding LSN graph.

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ruleser
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby ruleser » Wed Oct 21, 2009 1:43 am

conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)

Don't know if whoever posted thisis still around, but thanks a ton for this link. From LSN I absolutely wrote a number of places off, because it really looks like places, like GULC, UVA, Duke, have practically cutoffs at 170. Good to see the reality.

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Bronte
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Re: How accurate is Law School Numbers?

Postby Bronte » Wed Oct 21, 2009 2:07 am

ruleser wrote:
conn09 wrote:I'm going to say that its inaccurate for people with lower numbers, and I mean this for everyone, not just the URMs.

If we look at Duke for last year http://duke.lawschoolnumbers.com/stats/0708/ , it appears that no one got in with under a 165.

But if we look at this official LSAC data http://officialguide.lsac.org/SearchRes ... AC5156.pdf over 100 people got in with under a 165. So everything on there should be taken with a grain of salt.

(Duke is 2nd highest rank school with this chart, w/ Yale being the highest)

Don't know if whoever posted thisis still around, but thanks a ton for this link. From LSN I absolutely wrote a number of places off, because it really looks like places, like GULC, UVA, Duke, have practically cutoffs at 170. Good to see the reality.


The graphs can be very deceiving, because reds sit on top of yellows which sit on top of greens. What might be 50% wait, 50% accept looks like 100% waitlist. A HUGE feature that LSN could add would be the ability to disable reds, yellows, or greens, or any combination thereof. It's actually ridiculous that they don't have this.




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