lowest ranked school you would settle for?

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abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:09 pm

BigZuck wrote:Abl-

Undoubtedly toplawschools.com skews toward TOP law schools and the types of outcomes people get there. But I've read the anecdotes/stories from non-T14 grads that you're talking about. You're not reading enough of TLS or digging very deeply.

Also, what you're calling the "Accepted TLS wisdom" is a strawman. It doesn't exist. Just a head's up.


I'm not talking about TTTs. I'm talking about schools like Emory and GW. I'm not exactly sure what you're accusing me of here, either.

BigZuck
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:27 pm

abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:Abl-

Undoubtedly toplawschools.com skews toward TOP law schools and the types of outcomes people get there. But I've read the anecdotes/stories from non-T14 grads that you're talking about. You're not reading enough of TLS or digging very deeply.

Also, what you're calling the "Accepted TLS wisdom" is a strawman. It doesn't exist. Just a head's up.


I'm not talking about TTTs. I'm talking about schools like Emory and GW. I'm not exactly sure what you're accusing me of here, either.


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:14 pm

BigZuck wrote:
abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:Abl-

Undoubtedly toplawschools.com skews toward TOP law schools and the types of outcomes people get there. But I've read the anecdotes/stories from non-T14 grads that you're talking about. You're not reading enough of TLS or digging very deeply.

Also, what you're calling the "Accepted TLS wisdom" is a strawman. It doesn't exist. Just a head's up.


I'm not talking about TTTs. I'm talking about schools like Emory and GW. I'm not exactly sure what you're accusing me of here, either.


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man


I know what a straw man is. You don't have to be a dick about it. I was curious about the first part of your post. (I also disagree that my point re "accepted TLS wisdom" is a straw man.)

BigZuck
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 8:27 pm

abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:Abl-

Undoubtedly toplawschools.com skews toward TOP law schools and the types of outcomes people get there. But I've read the anecdotes/stories from non-T14 grads that you're talking about. You're not reading enough of TLS or digging very deeply.

Also, what you're calling the "Accepted TLS wisdom" is a strawman. It doesn't exist. Just a head's up.


I'm not talking about TTTs. I'm talking about schools like Emory and GW. I'm not exactly sure what you're accusing me of here, either.


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man


I know what a straw man is. You don't have to be a dick about it. I was curious about the first part of your post. (I also disagree that my point re "accepted TLS wisdom" is a straw man.)


I disagree that it was dickish. You said you didn't understand what I was accusing you of. That's what I was accusing you of.

How is your argument not a straw man? Can you link to some posts to back up your claim that TLS believes or says that every non-T14 grad has a bad outcome?

As for what I was talking about in my first part, I meant things like this:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=237807

And it's unfortunate that this thread even has to exist, but there is a lot of stuff in there as well:
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=192753

abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:02 pm

BigZuck wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:Abl-

Undoubtedly toplawschools.com skews toward TOP law schools and the types of outcomes people get there. But I've read the anecdotes/stories from non-T14 grads that you're talking about. You're not reading enough of TLS or digging very deeply.

Also, what you're calling the "Accepted TLS wisdom" is a strawman. It doesn't exist. Just a head's up.




http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man


I know what a straw man is. You don't have to be a dick about it. I was curious about the first part of your post. (I also disagree that my point re "accepted TLS wisdom" is a straw man.)


I disagree that it was dickish. You said you didn't understand what I was accusing you of. That's what I was accusing you of.

How is your argument not a straw man? Can you link to some posts to back up your claim that TLS believes or says that every non-T14 grad has a bad outcome?

As for what I was talking about in my first part, I meant things like this:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=237807

And it's unfortunate that this thread even has to exist, but there is a lot of stuff in there as well:
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=192753


My "I'm confused" comment could have (and in fact did) refer to a different part of your post. Facetiously assuming that a practicing attorney does not understand what the word "straw man" means is a dick move.

And holy cow, talk about a straw man: I never said that it was the position of TLS that "every non-T14 grad has a bad outcome." My (not particularly nuanced) point was much more nuanced: that TLS tends to overstate the number of non-T14 outcomes that are bad--at least with respect to good regional schools.

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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 9:56 pm

I mean, this is what you said verbatim:
"the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work"

That's not you saying that the accepted TLS wisdom is that all T14 grads have a bad outcome?

Eta: Whoops, meant to say non-T14 grads

abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:23 pm

BigZuck wrote:I mean, this is what you said verbatim:
"the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work"

That's not you saying that the accepted TLS wisdom is that all T14 grads have a bad outcome?

Eta: Whoops, meant to say non-T14 grads


No, it's expressly not.

BigZuck
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:29 pm

abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:I mean, this is what you said verbatim:
"the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work"

That's not you saying that the accepted TLS wisdom is that all T14 grads have a bad outcome?

Eta: Whoops, meant to say non-T14 grads


No, it's expressly not.

So, then...contract work isn't a bad outcome? What do you mean by contract work then? You mean literally working on contracts? TLS doesn't say that either, I think TLS is well aware that there are non-T14 litigators out there

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romothesavior
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby romothesavior » Fri Mar 06, 2015 10:39 pm

JCougar wrote:
Moneytrees wrote:What you just said is very different from saying "The only law schools worth going to are the top 7".


Not really.

Yeah, it really is. Plenty of law schools are fine investments with a full ride. It really all comes down to risk, which is directly related to cost. Few people on TLS would endorse even a T14 at sticker these days. This "downside risk" you keep referring to is largely mitigated by going to school at a discount. This doesn't absolve law schools and the ABA of their shitty behavior, but it does undermine your argument that only T7 schools are worth attending.

You also drew a completely arbitrary line with your "T7 for free or bust" thing.

abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:39 pm

BigZuck wrote:
abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:I mean, this is what you said verbatim:
"the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work"

That's not you saying that the accepted TLS wisdom is that all T14 grads have a bad outcome?

Eta: Whoops, meant to say non-T14 grads


No, it's expressly not.

So, then...contract work isn't a bad outcome? What do you mean by contract work then? You mean literally working on contracts? TLS doesn't say that either, I think TLS is well aware that there are non-T14 litigators out there


Straw man again. That's me saying that it is "the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work."

BigZuck
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:59 pm

abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:
abl wrote:
BigZuck wrote:I mean, this is what you said verbatim:
"the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work"

That's not you saying that the accepted TLS wisdom is that all T14 grads have a bad outcome?

Eta: Whoops, meant to say non-T14 grads


No, it's expressly not.

So, then...contract work isn't a bad outcome? What do you mean by contract work then? You mean literally working on contracts? TLS doesn't say that either, I think TLS is well aware that there are non-T14 litigators out there


Straw man again. That's me saying that it is "the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work."


Dude. You said TLS wisdom is that all non-T14 grads have bad outcomes. You said you don't think thats true. To you, it's not all. You don't even think it's most. You don't even think it's more than a "reasonable minority." That's literally what you said.

You mischaracterized what TLS says. That's a straw man. And it's stupid. And then you refuse to respond substantively, or to even acknowledge what you literally typed out.

I'll stop harping on it now. But damn man, if you're going to try and argue against the hive mind can't you at least not mischaracterize its position? People do this crap here all the time, they are so hellbent on justifying poor decisions or their own illogical position that they have to warp the hell out of the other side that is basically just saying "Keep costs reasonable and choose a school that can get you what you want."

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romothesavior
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby romothesavior » Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:07 am

abl wrote:But I'm not sure that the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work is accurate

This is a bad mischaracterization of the "accepted TLS wisdom." Most T1 graduates wind up with gainful legal employment. The issue is the huge cost of getting into one of those jobs thanks to skyrocketing tuition, and the fairly substantial risk of a bad outcome (unemployment, low pay, contract work, etc.)

After six years of regular posting on this site, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the TLS accepted wisdom is to go to a T14 with a scholarship or go to a strong regional in the location where you want to work (and ideally where you have ties) on a full ride.

abl
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby abl » Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:45 am

"Or," dudes. "Or." Reread what I wrote.

BigZuck
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby BigZuck » Sat Mar 07, 2015 1:52 am

Might be a potato, po-ta-to situation but to me, 85% overall employment and 57% long term, JD required employment makes for a very unreasonable minority

http://college.usatoday.com/2014/09/30/ ... e-for-you/

It might just be an unhealthy compulsion that I have but posters mischaracterizing how good things are is a flame to my mothy nature just as much as posters mischaracterizing how bad things are. I get that we all have different definitions of what level of risk is acceptable. This thread is a monument to that. But I also think we should be able to reach more of a common ground without distorting the other side or abandoning logic. Maybe that's just my love of hive-mindedness talking though, I don't know.

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bearsfan23
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby bearsfan23 » Sat Mar 07, 2015 2:25 am

romothesavior wrote:
abl wrote:But I'm not sure that the accepted TLS wisdom that all (or most or even more than a reasonable minority) of non-T14 grads do nothing besides contract work is accurate

This is a bad mischaracterization of the "accepted TLS wisdom." Most T1 graduates wind up with gainful legal employment. The issue is the huge cost of getting into one of those jobs thanks to skyrocketing tuition, and the fairly substantial risk of a bad outcome (unemployment, low pay, contract work, etc.)

After six years of regular posting on this site, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the TLS accepted wisdom is to go to a T14 with a scholarship or go to a strong regional in the location where you want to work (and ideally where you have ties) on a full ride.


This is good advice.

Except don't go to Texas. Going to Texas apparently turns people into insufferable TLS posters so don't go there

blousty
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby blousty » Sat Mar 07, 2015 3:21 am

I'm responding as to the "splitter" comments on this thread. DO NOT GO INTO DEBT FOR LAW SCHOOL OVER 100K FOR ANY SCHOOL OTHER THAN TOP 5. Top14 is a legend and a joke ITE. This message brought to you by a 170+ splitter attorney, a few years out, who hates paying 100K+ loans every month despite a good job. There are so many better options out there than taking on a mortgage-sized debt. Believe me - I do very well as an attorney. But debt makes you a slave, and odds are you won't get big law. I am paid well (100k+), but many of my friends are not. And even 100K salary isn't that good if you live in a real city and have to service debt. Any responsible non-boomer adult will tell you that taking on substantial debt for school is a trap.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Sat Mar 07, 2015 12:16 pm

bearsfan23 wrote:This is good advice.

Except don't go to Texas. Going to Texas apparently turns people into insufferable TLS posters makes people disagree with me so don't go there

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JCougar
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby JCougar » Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:03 pm

http://www.economicmodeling.com/2014/01 ... continues/

This dataset shows that there are 2.2 law graduates for every law job nationally. It's from 2014, so things may be slightly better with the somewhat smaller graduating class. But this also implies that the NALP's number of 57% of law grads getting FTLT law jobs is probably very optimistic. And that makes sense, of course, because the NALP's numbers still rely on self-reports by schools re: how many of their grads got these jobs.

IOW, law schools are still flatly lying about even the 57% number. According to these stats, that number is actually a lot closer to 46%. And a good number of those 46% are at highly unstable small firms or at big firms with high turnover. This number is a lot more consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have seen.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. It won't be a good time to go to law school until the total number of grads drops down to something between 20-25K. We're at least 5 years away from that--and that's being optimistic.

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JCougar
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby JCougar » Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:16 pm

Of note: New York is significantly above the national average at 3.1. So there's only employment for 33% of attorneys that graduate in New York. And I would bet dollars to donuts that this ratio is far worse in NYC when considering where in the state people are actually looking for work. It's probably better in Buffalo, Albany, etc. And it doesn't even count all the New Jersey schools and T14s trying to cram their attorneys into this ridiculously over-saturated market.

If you don't get something out of OCI, you pretty much have a snowball's chance in hell of finding something.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Mar 08, 2015 5:28 pm

JCougar wrote:IOW, law schools are still flatly lying about even the 57% number. According to these stats, that number is actually a lot closer to 46%. And a good number of those 46% are at highly unstable small firms or at big firms with high turnover. This number is a lot more consistent with the anecdotal evidence I have seen.

I'm not sure why this data is necessarily better than NALP's. It's hard to tell from their site, but it appears they are just estimating the total number of jobs and could be off by a fair amount.

If they are right, then chances are many of the jobs that take us from NALP's number down to EMSI's would be in that unstable small firm category, so be careful not to double count your winnings.

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JCougar
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby JCougar » Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:21 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:be careful not to double count your winnings.


That's an odd way of putting it...

If I were choosing to believe either an objective party's evidence versus an interested party's self-produced stats, I'd pick the former every time.

It's possible that the truth is somewhere in between. But it's also possible that even the study I just cited is optimistic. They have no reason to be pessimistic or make a conservative estimate. Notice that their "new jobs" category includes people that are "self-employed." So that includes people going solo. If that consists mostly of new grads doing so right out of the gate, that's bad news. Maybe the real jobs number is closer to the low 40s.

AReasonableMan
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby AReasonableMan » Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:47 pm

The notion of going 200k in debt anywhere below a 50/50 proposition of having an appreciable opportunity to repay it/have it forgiven is absolute tomfoolery.

jebsterb
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby jebsterb » Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:42 pm

If you want to be even a little competitive nationally I'd attend the highest ranked public Big10 school that offers you a full ride.

But that's if I'm being arbitrary and putting a line on the list. Generally, the highest ranked school that will cost you the least amount of money is the rule of thumb to live by. And nothing outside the top 50 unless you want to be in the specific school's market.

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Winston1984
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby Winston1984 » Tue Mar 10, 2015 5:45 pm

jebsterb wrote:If you want to be even a little competitive nationally I'd attend the highest ranked public Big10 school that offers you a full ride.

But that's if I'm being arbitrary and putting a line on the list. Generally, the highest ranked school that will cost you the least amount of money is the rule of thumb to live by. And nothing outside the top 50 unless you want to be in the specific school's market.

Why Big10? One national championship and you guys think you are hot shit.

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JCougar
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Re: lowest ranked school you would settle for?

Postby JCougar » Tue Mar 10, 2015 7:01 pm

jebsterb wrote:If you want to be even a little competitive nationally I'd attend the highest ranked public Big10 school that offers you a full ride.


Thing is, even with this, most of these Big 10 schools don't even offer that great of a chance of being a lawyer at all. Even with a full ride, you go into debt for living expenses and put a big black hole on your resume for 3 years (including lost salary above law student living expenses). Plus all the insane stress that law school brings. And you probably have to pay for a bar study course and the bar exam itself. And then you're limited to only one state, and it's impossible to find work in a different state because nobody wants to take the risk of hiring you before you actually pass the bar in their state, and you don't want to take the risk of actually spending the money/time to take another bar if you don't have a guaranteed job lined up. You'll likely be volunteering/too poor to afford another bar exam anyway.

States like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Iowa, Indiana and Michigan are some of the most overcrowded states out there--the last three of which are among the Top 10 most overcrowded states for lawyers. And the big cities in these states are even more overcrowded than the small towns and rural areas. And if you think you're going to waltz in from out of state and convince a small-town law firm to hire you without ties, you're in for a sad future. These firms are not stupid. They know that after 1-2 years of experience, you're going to be off to a bigger city.

The oversupply of lawyers is understated even by the newer, more transparent statistics that are out there. It's still not a good time to go to law school.

You can witness this if you ever did any temp-work for a shitlaw firm. I did some brief work for a place like that over a year ago. The guy normally refused to hire from my school because it was too highly ranked and everyone he normally hired from there left immediately. But I talked him into taking me on while I was waiting for my bar results, because he just had two people quit. It was in the suburbs of a medium-sized Midwestern city. The pay was $40K/year and it was an unstable small firm with only one partner in a run-down office with like three associates to a room. He even stuffed an associate into a small hovel that served as a supply closet and snack room as well as this associate's office. When I went in there to microwave my tea, I practically had to elbow the guy in the head to get the microwave door open. Average associate tenure there was about 6 months. Out of 6 associates that were working there when I was there, only one is left. The rest quit/got fired. And this was just over a year ago. And the people that quit didn't do so because they found another job. I follow them on LinkedIn, and only one that I know of is employed elsewhere in law. The rest probably figured they'd rather kill themselves than work another day in this profession after that experience.

Yet in this guy's office, he had a stack of resumes at least 6 inches tall. Whenever someone quit, he would simply pull another resume out of the pile and give them a call. I think it was random. The only way to get his attention for an interview was to call him or try and network with him. Or be one of the random 500 resumes he pulled out of the pile.

At least one of the associates that was working there got his job after two years of volunteering. He is the only guy still there from when I worked there. I doubt he makes much more than $50K at this point. I have no idea what his debt load is, but imagine your average law school debt load, and then tack on 2 years of accumulated interest. And then a shitlaw salary for the rest of your life. And you're one of the lucky ones pulled out of the pile of 500 desperate strivers that would do anything just to work there because it's better than working at Starbucks/living with their parents.

That's what happens if you strike out at OCI--which for most schools is almost 90% of the class.




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