Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

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Fred Norris
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Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Fred Norris » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:46 pm

Been browsing through old threads. Took a brief peak at this a few weeks back. Now read the whole thing:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=111395

I feel like 2010 was some sort of alternative universe or something after reading this. Hell, there were insinuations that you'd be lucky to be happy at midlaw if you went to Penn.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:54 pm

You may want to consider that vanwinkle went to Harvard (I'm pretty sure he transferred, in fact), and was one of the biggest white knights for Harvard ever to grace this site, and rayiner has publicly recanted the pro-H-at-sticker attitude he expressed in that thread and said "I was wrong, go with the money."

Also, I have the impression from reading here that Penn's numbers have got better since 2010? But I could be making that up.

Fred Norris
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Fred Norris » Sat Feb 21, 2015 11:59 pm

A. Nony Mouse wrote:Also, I have the impression from reading here that Penn's numbers have got better since 2010? But I could be making that up.


That's what I am wondering, but can't find stats.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Sun Feb 22, 2015 12:05 am

The world of law school admissions pre-LST - a dark age.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:06 am

Yup, the data we had back then was just the NLJ250 survey, which turned out to be remarkably incomplete. Although somewhat ironically this data showed Penn ahead of Harvard for the class of 2009, which was the most recent when that thread was made. Same with 2008 and 2007 actually.

Remember too that tuition was much lower even as recently as 2010. The Levy then was only 110k. And while tuition in 2009-2010 was around 45k the posters in that thread were probably thinking it was more like 40k as we have a tendency to assume that tuition when we start is what we'll always be paying. An extra 110k for Harvard is not as devastating as the extra 180k or more it will be for someone turning down a full ride for sticker today.

In addition the most recent OCI to have occurred when that thread was made was the 2009 OCI, a slaughterhouse of epic proportions. Coming off of the worst OCI anyone had seen or probably will see for some time folks were understandably recommending the safer play.

Agree that vanwinkle was a hardcore HLS homer and he made a bit of a fool of himself in that thread, at least with the benefit of hindsight. For his part Rayiner used to say that each 10 percentage point increase in biglaw placement was worth 100k. He doesn't say that anymore. I don't know about vanwinkle but I'm 100% sure rayiner would recommend be voting for Penn if given the same hypothetical in 2015. And FWIW even in 2010 that poll was roughly split between people voting for Harvard and those voting for Penn, and since then TLS has become much more debt-averse.

nickhalden
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby nickhalden » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:17 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:Yup, the data we had back then was just the NLJ250 survey, which turned out to be remarkably incomplete. Although somewhat ironically this data showed Penn ahead of Harvard for the class of 2009, which was the most recent when that thread was made. Same with 2008 and 2007 actually.


The ABA didn't release employment data? When did the 509 report come about?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:21 am

nickhalden wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Yup, the data we had back then was just the NLJ250 survey, which turned out to be remarkably incomplete. Although somewhat ironically this data showed Penn ahead of Harvard for the class of 2009, which was the most recent when that thread was made. Same with 2008 and 2007 actually.


The ABA didn't release employment data? When did the 509 report come about?

LST has ABA employment data for as far back as 2009 but only because US News released it with the rankings. It was a good start but far less granular than what we have today.

Moneytrees
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Moneytrees » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:04 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:Yup, the data we had back then was just the NLJ250 survey, which turned out to be remarkably incomplete. Although somewhat ironically this data showed Penn ahead of Harvard for the class of 2009, which was the most recent when that thread was made. Same with 2008 and 2007 actually.

Remember too that tuition was much lower even as recently as 2010. The Levy then was only 110k. And while tuition in 2009-2010 was around 45k the posters in that thread were probably thinking it was more like 40k as we have a tendency to assume that tuition when we start is what we'll always be paying. An extra 110k for Harvard is not as devastating as the extra 180k or more it will be for someone turning down a full ride for sticker today.

In addition the most recent OCI to have occurred when that thread was made was the 2009 OCI, a slaughterhouse of epic proportions. Coming off of the worst OCI anyone had seen or probably will see for some time folks were understandably recommending the safer play.

Agree that vanwinkle was a hardcore HLS homer and he made a bit of a fool of himself in that thread, at least with the benefit of hindsight. For his part Rayiner used to say that each 10 percentage point increase in biglaw placement was worth 100k. He doesn't say that anymore. I don't know about vanwinkle but I'm 100% sure rayiner would recommend be voting for Penn if given the same hypothetical in 2015. And FWIW even in 2010 that poll was roughly split between people voting for Harvard and those voting for Penn, and since then TLS has become much more debt-averse.


How was it incomplete? Those numbers are really interesting, btw. Hard to believe USC and BU placed close to 50% of people into those jobs back then. Was that how it was back in the day? Was law school a much better investment 10 years ago than it is now?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:31 pm

Moneytrees wrote:How was it incomplete? Those numbers are really interesting, btw. Hard to believe USC and BU placed close to 50% of people into those jobs back then. Was that how it was back in the day? Was law school a much better investment 10 years ago than it is now?

We've found out in recent years that a fairly large number of firms don't respond to the NLJ survey. NLJ can sometimes fill in this gap by searching firm websites but it doesn't always do the trick. The numbers still give a good indication of how schools place relative to one another, but if a big NYC firm doesn't respond that could really hamper schools like CLS and NYU, while a big Chicago firm failing to respond disproportionately affects Chicago feeder schools. From year to year this could vary, but it wasn't until a year or two ago that we found out exactly which firms did and did not respond.

And yes law school was a better investment because it was much cheaper. But the exact differences in placement are hard to pin down because employment data was less robust. The data does back up the claim many have made which is that the former biglaw feeders just outside the T14, like USC and BU, have taken the biggest hit post-recession.

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banjo
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby banjo » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:32 pm

Moneytrees wrote:How was it incomplete?


Tiago answered the question above, but two views from the law schools themselves.

NYU Law wrote:To gather its data, the NLJ contacts each of the NLJ 250 law firms. But not all release this information. NLJ editor-in-chief David Brown told NYU Law that in this year's survey, the results of which he just published, 71 of these 250 firms provided no school-specific 2011 hiring data. And, if a firm didn’t participate and a law school declined to say how many graduates it sent to that firm, the NLJ simply recorded that as a zero. “If we didn’t have information from the law firm or the law school, we didn’t publish information we didn’t have,” Brown said. Presto: a sizeable group of entry-level lawyers vanish into the ether.


Columbia Law School wrote:The NLJ did not discuss with us the difference between their numbers and ours for the Class of 2010, but we had detailed discussions with them about the Class of 2011 and discovered a number of reasons why their numbers are wrong. For example, 24 of the NLJ 250 firms did not respond to the NLJ’s survey. In addition, the NLJ did not count as “employed” some full-time, permanent, first year associates who were awaiting admission to the bar. The reason is that some firms use the term “law clerk” to describe them (in order to avoid an ethical issue about describing employees not yet admitted to the bar as “lawyers”).

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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Moneytrees » Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:04 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
Moneytrees wrote:How was it incomplete? Those numbers are really interesting, btw. Hard to believe USC and BU placed close to 50% of people into those jobs back then. Was that how it was back in the day? Was law school a much better investment 10 years ago than it is now?

We've found out in recent years that a fairly large number of firms don't respond to the NLJ survey. NLJ can sometimes fill in this gap by searching firm websites but it doesn't always do the trick. The numbers still give a good indication of how schools place relative to one another, but if a big NYC firm doesn't respond that could really hamper schools like CLS and NYU, while a big Chicago firm failing to respond disproportionately affects Chicago feeder schools. From year to year this could vary, but it wasn't until a year or two ago that we found out exactly which firms did and did not respond.

And yes law school was a better investment because it was much cheaper. But the exact differences in placement are hard to pin down because employment data was less robust. The data does back up the claim many have made which is that the former biglaw feeders just outside the T14, like USC and BU, have taken the biggest hit post-recession.



Thanks for the response, Tiago. Over the past 2 years, we've seen Biglaw hiring (100+ firms) pick up. The NLJ data that just came out supports the notion that there is a noticeable uptick in hiring at the largest firms. Any thoughts on the legal market's future? Will it ever rebound completely, or is that a pipe dream?

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Mack.Hambleton
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Mack.Hambleton » Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:24 pm

I remember when ED UVA was the TCR for everything

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Calling on TLS Vets: Why the hell did u hate on Penn?

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:47 pm

Moneytrees wrote:Over the past 2 years, we've seen Biglaw hiring (100+ firms) pick up. The NLJ data that just came out supports the notion that there is a noticeable uptick in hiring at the largest firms. Any thoughts on the legal market's future? Will it ever rebound completely, or is that a pipe dream?

I don't think this data really supports that notion. The numbers are pretty similar year over year. The corporate legal market has been really hot for a while but my guess is the 101+ hiring numbers will still be close to the 6100 we saw for class of 2013. If the market stays hot, we could continue to creep up but I don't think we'll get back to 2007-2008 levels, when 101+ hiring was in the 8000-8500 range, anytime soon. Fortunately we seem to have settled in well above the depths of 2011, when it was only 4700.




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