JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

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twenty 8
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby twenty 8 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:47 am

I just noticed that this thread was created over a year ago. Hasn’t the job market greatly improved ― I no longer see stories about ivy leaguers going from LS to barista, doc review or retail jobs. Is there any current data?

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bk1
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby bk1 » Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:11 am

twenty 8 wrote:I just noticed that this thread was created over a year ago. Hasn’t the job market greatly improved ― I no longer see stories about ivy leaguers going from LS to barista, doc review or retail jobs. Is there any current data?

It may have improved slightly. Greatly improved is a definite no.

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:07 am

The whole point of me resurrecting this thread was the new BLS estimates, which show that the market hasn't really improved, and it's in fact worse than previously reported. And FedGov has better data than anyone on this (IRS, loan repayment info), so it's probably a good idea to take this seriously. 16,000 job openings per year is bad, even with the reduced classes of 37,000 or so law students. That's a terrible number for my class of 50,000.

This thread has always been about the statistics, and not me as an individual. While my anecdotes are mostly for shocking but true amusement, I feel like the people trying to make it about me are missing the point. OCI might cover slightly less than half of those 16K jobs, but that's only about 7,000 grads or so, or 20% of the total. The other 80% of the grads are left to claw their way into the remaining 9,000 positions, which is a bleak endeavor indeed.

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Sat Jan 30, 2016 4:17 am

Alive97 wrote:
JCougar wrote:
Alive97 wrote:I get the general gist of JCougar's view but his posts have so many overstatement and made up statistics that it actually becomes amusing to read.


How many years of practice do you have under your belt?


I feel for your story and get what you are saying but I do think you exaggerate some points.

JCougar wrote:I think your chances of being depressed increase something like tenfold from start to finish



JCougar wrote:This profession is pretty clearly biglaw or bust



JCougar wrote:only option available to those who strike out at OCI at a "Top 20" school: document review



JCougar wrote: For every good legal job out there, there's about 500 desperate JD grads applying--most of which have 5 years + of experience and graduated from T14 schools



JCougar wrote:there's 1,000 people applying for every one good job in this industry



JCougar wrote:You'd be surprised at how often the topic of "suicide" comes up in the doc review dungeons



I understand it may not be physically possible to be optimistic in your predicament. But I think there's room for exceptions which your exaggerations do not allow for.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kate-maye ... 13337.html

I suppose "quadruples" is less than "tenfold," but that depends on how accurate the stats you have are for the general population. Nevertheless, 40% is an extremely high number of depressed people.

As for people talking about suicide in doc review, I trust you've never done a project at one of those places. The environment is so bad that people were taking pictures of the place on their phone because their significant others simply did not believe them when they got home and told them how bad it was.

The 1,000 people applying for every good job thing is not an exaggeration at all. Legal Aid jobs in this state get well over that for a single job opening, and they only pay like $40K. People will take that for the loan forgiveness alone.

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Capitol_Idea
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:34 am

twenty 8 wrote:I just noticed that this thread was created over a year ago. Hasn’t the job market greatly improved ― I no longer see stories about ivy leaguers going from LS to barista, doc review or retail jobs. Is there any current data?

The answer is generally "yes and no" and also "lol" for Biglaw.

Revenue is back up to above pre-recession levels. However, client demand is volatile from year to year, expenses are higher and realization is being pushed down by hard bargaining clients. Overall, profit margins are decreasing which means less money for partners. But fuck if they're gonna accept less money per year so they're squeezing every drop at every other level where they can so they can keep PPP high.

Right now hiring is 'back on track' but we're looking at long-term slowdown for successful firms that will get leaner, and very rocky roads for the many middle-of-the-pack firms which may dissolve or merge (resulting in eliminated jobs and less hiring either way).

For general numbers AmLaw 200 and NALP will get you some decent data. (ETA: what you can most easily get is net number of non-partner lawyer numbers. Increases here are largely going to be new first years because laterals A. probably come from other Amlaw 200 firms and B. aren't really recruited en masse in the same way as new lawyer cohorts).

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:06 am

JCougar wrote:As for people talking about suicide in doc review, I trust you've never done a project at one of those places. The environment is so bad that people were taking pictures of the place on their phone because their significant others simply did not believe them when they got home and told them how bad it was.

The 1,000 people applying for every good job thing is not an exaggeration at all. Legal Aid jobs in this state get well over that for a single job opening, and they only pay like $40K. People will take that for the loan forgiveness alone.


I get that you don't want to make this thread all about you, but why haven't you quit law yet? Your refrain for as long as I can remember has been that for all but a vanishingly small minority, law is a horrible profession and virtually everyone would be better doing something, anything, else. Why are you still sticking around? Go teach high school. Learn to code. At some point you have to cut your losses.

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:31 am

TheSpanishMain wrote:I get that you don't want to make this thread all about you, but why haven't you quit law yet? Your refrain for as long as I can remember has been that for all but a vanishingly small minority, law is a horrible profession and virtually everyone would be better doing something, anything, else. Why are you still sticking around? Go teach high school. Learn to code. At some point you have to cut your losses.


Mostly up until now, I have been applying to non-law jobs, but the JD really is a scarlet letter, as people immediately reject the possibility of a lawyer working in a non-law position...they think either you're over-qualified, or that something is wrong with you, or that you'll leave for a better job within months. The idea that the JD is somehow a leg up on any career is yet another lie that law schools will tell you to get their greedy hands on your loan money.

Also, I've been led on for quite some time now about the "possibility" of some really good jobs opening up sometime down the road depending on funding issues, which never came through, and now probably never will.

Thirdly, I do happen to be really good at this in practice. But it's really hard to show this when your resume is one in a pile of 1000 that employers are sorting through. Despite not getting paid, I've been able to work on some very big and complex cases, and I think this kind of work comes naturally to me.

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:36 am

Fourthly, I have a general contempt for lying, greedy, useless bureaucrats, so I'd be on here posting these stats whether I succeed despite them or not. Which is why my success or failure is not the issue here. If it's not me, it's 30,000 other people every year that don't care enough to post about their fate on here.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:41 am

Just become an electrician or something. You'll have a much more stable income with a much better quality of life, and no apprenticeship program is going to give a crap about the "scarlet letter" or your JD.

This isn't an attack or anything. I'm sorry things have been so crappy for you. I just can't reconcile your opinion of law as a godawful profession with your dogged persistence to make it work. It's admirable I guess, but it just seems like you're pouring money into what you decided was a broken slot machine a long time ago.

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LA Spring
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby LA Spring » Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:27 pm

If it the 15% was factual (a year or so ago), what is it today ― anyone know?

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:41 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:Just become an electrician or something. You'll have a much more stable income with a much better quality of life, and no apprenticeship program is going to give a crap about the "scarlet letter" or your JD.

This isn't an attack or anything. I'm sorry things have been so crappy for you. I just can't reconcile your opinion of law as a godawful profession with your dogged persistence to make it work. It's admirable I guess, but it just seems like you're pouring money into what you decided was a broken slot machine a long time ago.

If it's what you're passionate about and have spent years schooling and working towards, I understand wanting to keep trying at it. I don't know if I could give up so easily if I were in his shoes especially not for totally unknown waters like becoming an electrician.
Last edited by Capitol_Idea on Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:53 pm

Who cares about uncharted waters? Gloryhole Custodian would be a better job than the legal industry, at least the legal industry as JCougar portrays it.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:02 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:Who cares about uncharted waters?
Lots of people?

"Sucks that your steel mill closed down. Maybe become a dentist?"

"Quit whining about losing your analyst job at the bank. Just do pipe welding bro."

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:06 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:
TheSpanishMain wrote:Who cares about uncharted waters?
Lots of people?


When the alternative is a hellscape of awfulness?

"Ugh, this field is a living death. It's an endless waking nightmare and I doubt it'll ever get better."
"Maybe do anything else?"
"Nah, at least this is familiar."

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Capitol_Idea
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:10 pm

I mean, I think the legal landscape is a hell field of awfulness and I'm still hell bent on doing it so maybe my perspective is skewed.

JCougar isn't really wrong about how shitty it is out there though and it is probably a net good to have people sharing these kinds of stories.

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DCfilterDC
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby DCfilterDC » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:11 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:I mean, I think the legal landscape is a hell field of awfulness and I'm still hell bent on doing it so maybe my perspective is skewed.

JCougar isn't really wrong about how shitty it is out there though and it is probably a net good to have people sharing these kinds of stories.


If he isn't wrong, why are you so hell bent on doing it?

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Capitol_Idea
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:18 pm

DCfilterDC wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:I mean, I think the legal landscape is a hell field of awfulness and I'm still hell bent on doing it so maybe my perspective is skewed.

JCougar isn't really wrong about how shitty it is out there though and it is probably a net good to have people sharing these kinds of stories.


If he isn't wrong, why are you so hell bent on doing it?

A. I was arrogant enough to think I could have a good outcome regardless.
B. I was lucky enough to actually achieve said outcome.
C. I worked in legal consulting for most of a decade and felt like I could handle how rough things are going to get as an associate.

There's a huge difference between not empathizing with the guy and saying that he's wrong about the state of things.

You don't have to throw a pity party for JCougar or deny his personal responsibility in his life choices to accept that our industry is fucking itself to death with something sharp and rusty.

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DCfilterDC
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby DCfilterDC » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:22 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:
DCfilterDC wrote:
Capitol_Idea wrote:I mean, I think the legal landscape is a hell field of awfulness and I'm still hell bent on doing it so maybe my perspective is skewed.

JCougar isn't really wrong about how shitty it is out there though and it is probably a net good to have people sharing these kinds of stories.


If he isn't wrong, why are you so hell bent on doing it?

A. I was arrogant enough to think I could have a good outcome regardless.
B. I was lucky enough to actually achieve said outcome.
C. I worked in legal consulting for most of a decade and felt like I could handle how rough things are going to get as an associate.

There's a huge difference between not empathizing with the guy and saying that he's wrong about the state of things.

You don't have to throw a pity party for JCougar or deny his personal responsibility in his life choices to accept that our industry is fucking itself to death with something sharp and rusty.


Not disagreeing just curious where you fell on the spectrum.

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Capitol_Idea
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Capitol_Idea » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:24 pm

I've been in the lounge too long bc I def read that as an autism ad hominem at first.

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DCfilterDC
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby DCfilterDC » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:25 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:I've been in the lounge too long bc I def read that as an autism ad hominem at first.


Just a 1L searching for meaning in the profession.

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TheSpanishMain
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:31 pm

Capitol_Idea wrote:
You don't have to throw a pity party for JCougar or deny his personal responsibility in his life choices to accept that our industry is fucking itself to death with something sharp and rusty.


First of all, dude, you go to a law center. You're going to be fine.




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