JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

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Alive97
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Alive97 » Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:52 pm

I get the general gist of JCougar's view but his posts have so many overstatement and made up statistics that it actually becomes amusing to read.

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:06 pm

Alive97 wrote:I get the general gist of JCougar's view but his posts have so many overstatement and made up statistics that it actually becomes amusing to read.


I don't really find it amusing at all. His general view point is correct and the old people sitting in academia shouldn't be colluding with the government to offer cheap financing to a bunch of 23 year old English majors who don't understand compound interest. I saw a recent film on vice of people who are just leaving the U.S. because of their ridiculous student loans and quite frankly, while it was in fact their decision to make that choice, you can't really blame them.

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:28 pm

Alive97 wrote:I get the general gist of JCougar's view but his posts have so many overstatement and made up statistics that it actually becomes amusing to read.


How many years of practice do you have under your belt?

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JCougar
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JCougar » Fri Jan 29, 2016 3:04 pm

The Washington Post states that law schools are in "deep trouble."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/gra ... education/

1. Law schools are in deep trouble. Moody’s downgraded the California Western School of Law and gave the free-standing private law school in San Diego a “negative outlook,” adding that its financial pressures are “likely to continue for a period longer than expected.”

California Western is not alone in its struggles. Fewer students are going to law school and fewer graduates are obtaining the jobs that they went to law school to get.


I mean, this has been obvious for quite a while. There's two ways the ABA could be handling this: 1) immediately start shutting down law schools or at least forcing schools to trim their ranks dramatically; or 2) do absolutely nothing and let the entire trainwreck play out over a 10-year timespan, costing the federal government tens of billions of dollars in bad loans all for the benefit of the salaries of a couple thousand law professors and administrators.

It's no secret which one they chose.

FredTheFish
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby FredTheFish » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:44 pm

This thread is super interesting but can we talk about potential solutions now? Most of the people on this site are aware of the situation with the legal market and how it is overall very shitty. Everything from the ridiculous curriculum found in law school to how the ABA is literally the devil is common knowledge for those on this site applying to law schools, currently in law schools, or who have been practicing (or unemployed) for x number of years. Solution time?

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:48 pm

FredTheFish wrote:This thread is super interesting but can we talk about potential solutions now? Most of the people on this site are aware of the situation with the legal market and how it is overall very shitty. Everything from the ridiculous curriculum found in law school to how the ABA is literally the devil is common knowledge for those on this site applying to law schools, currently in law schools, or who have been practicing (or unemployed) for x number of years. Solution time?


Well you can't fix it if you aren't in control. Here's a thought- completely get rid of student loans except for grants for the absolute poorest. The second you would do that the demand for law school would plummet at current prices as no one would have the capital. Then of course schools would be forced to lower prices and compete based on pricing thus greatly driving down the cost of education and those cushy teacher salaries.
Last edited by asdfdfdfadfas on Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:50 pm

FredTheFish wrote:This thread is super interesting but can we talk about potential solutions now? Most of the people on this site are aware of the situation with the legal market and how it is overall very shitty. Everything from the ridiculous curriculum found in law school to how the ABA is literally the devil is common knowledge for those on this site applying to law schools, currently in law schools, or who have been practicing (or unemployed) for x number of years. Solution time?

I'm sure solutions have been discussed in this thread but to recap, the incredibly simple solution is a basic one requiring just two steps:

1) Cap (or eliminate) the amount people can borrow from the federal government.
2) Make student loans (or at least those not obtained from the government) subject once again to bankruptcy protections.

Do those 2 things and the problem of too many students graduating with too much debt is largely fixed overnight.

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PeanutsNJam
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby PeanutsNJam » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:54 pm

According to Paul Campos, teacher salary is not the reason tuition is so high. Too lazy to dig up the post but it's there.

Also a solution is to cap law school class sizes/number of law schools.

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 4:59 pm

PeanutsNJam wrote:According to Paul Campos, teacher salary is not the reason tuition is so high. Too lazy to dig up the post but it's there.

Also a solution is to cap law school class sizes/number of law schools.


I never said it was. They are simply the beneficiaries of the government artificially driving up the price of education by providing capital to a bunch of creditless 22 year olds who, for the most part, have no idea how compound interest works. Sound familiar to the mortgage market? I am really hoping the next scam will be to start charging money for high school, then we could move down to grade school, then maybe preschool.

The whole thing is an absolute racket.

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General_Tso
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby General_Tso » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:35 pm

Crazy world we live in, we can't find a moderately experienced legal secretary for $75k but lawyers are chomping at the bit for $35k.

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Desert Fox
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Desert Fox » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:38 pm

General_Tso wrote:Crazy world we live in, we can't find a moderately experienced legal secretary for $75k but lawyers are chomping at the bit for $35k.


With all the staff reductions, how is that possible?

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:40 pm

General_Tso wrote:Crazy world we live in, we can't find a moderately experienced legal secretary for $75k but lawyers are chomping at the bit for $35k.


75k, in what location?

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General_Tso
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby General_Tso » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:41 pm

Desert Fox wrote:
General_Tso wrote:Crazy world we live in, we can't find a moderately experienced legal secretary for $75k but lawyers are chomping at the bit for $35k.


With all the staff reductions, how is that possible?


Bay Area cost of living is all I can say. $2k rent is 1/2 your disposible income on a 75k salary.

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 5:58 pm

General_Tso wrote:
Desert Fox wrote:
General_Tso wrote:Crazy world we live in, we can't find a moderately experienced legal secretary for $75k but lawyers are chomping at the bit for $35k.


With all the staff reductions, how is that possible?


Bay Area cost of living is all I can say. $2k rent is 1/2 your disposible income on a 75k salary.


Of course no one wants to do that. You could get a job in Nebraska at a Call center for $15 an hour or a grocery store bagging groceries in Iowa and have a better standard of living.....Not to mention lower crime, cheaper education, lower housing prices, less corruption and shitty winters!

Paul Campos
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Paul Campos » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:03 pm

Increases in faculty compensation over the past few decades are a small (but not trivial) factor in the exploding cost of legal education. Per capita faculty compensation increases probably account for about 5% to 10% of the increased cost. By far the biggest drivers of the increased cost of law school have been:

(1) The explosion in the number of faculty. Faculty-student ratios have gone from about 29 to 1 in the late 1970s to around 13 to 1 today.

(2) The big increase in clinical legal education. Clinics are by their nature very expensive, since you have to have a very low faculty to student ratio in them, plus they usually require quite a bit of administrative support.

(3) The proliferation of administrative services. Non-faculty staffs are far larger now than they were a generation ago. For example 30 years ago the vast majority of law schools had skeletal or even non-existent career services offices. Today almost every law school has several full-time CSO staff members .

(4) The amenities race. Schools push to build expensive new facilities, justifying this with arguments that they're necessary to compete for students and for rankings (this is of course the very definition of a negative-sum competition).

The result: average PRIVATE law school tuition in 2014 dollars:

1974: $11,057

1984: $15,721

1994: $25,295

2004: $33,777

2014: $43,398


Average RESIDENT PUBLIC law school tuition in 2014 dollars:

1974: $3438

1984: $4200

1994: $8013

2004: $14,863

2014: $24,946

Again these numbers are inflation-adjusted. ( Median household income in the US has barely risen over the past 40 years in constant dollars.)

As for what to do about it, I agree that by far the most efficient solution would be hard caps on federal loans plus making private loans dischargeable in bankruptcy. You have to do both things, however, as doing only the first would simply be a giant giveaway to the financial services industry.

Lord Randolph McDuff
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Lord Randolph McDuff » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:11 pm

People shouldn't enter this profession unless they are ready for a fight. This thing is competitive. But people still win, which is where I seem to differ from Cougar.

Cougar, where do you practice? I have many attorney friends all over the plains and southwest. None of them are struggling like you describe. Not a single one. Are you in NYC or San Francisco?

I know two people from my class who are off the biglaw bus, but both landed on their feet and seem really happy. I know attorneys who only make 50-60k, but none of them spent anywhere near 200,000 dollars to go to law school, and all of them have 401ks and health insurance. None of them work between 60-80 hours a week. (the thought of working this much is insane to me) In fact, of the small firm/ government crowd, most of them work between 40-50 hours a week. I average 40 hours a week and I make 65,000 plus full benefits, 3/1 retirement matching at up to 3% of my checks. I picked one thing to try to be good at in law school and have stuck with that. I do work hard when I am at work and I am a competitive person. I think this is what has helped me the most.

The honest truth is that I am a lawyer just like Cougar, but the only people I know that are struggling like Cougar are people that could never pass the bar exam. Aside from that crowd, I know 1 or 2 other attorneys who struggle with personality disorders that seem to hold them back a bit. This is my honest assessment and I am not trying to troll anyone on here. I do want to say that I have a couple friends LA/SF/NYC/Chi/D.C who work longer hours than I do and seem very stressed. I actually lived in D.C. for awhile and the experience made me very anti "rat-race." I'm very interested to know where everyone is living/practicing on this thread.

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:22 pm

Paul Campos wrote:Increases in faculty compensation over the past few decades are a small (but not trivial) factor in the exploding cost of legal education. Per capita faculty compensation increases probably account for about 5% to 10% of the increased cost. By far the biggest drivers of the increased cost of law school have been:

(1) The explosion in the number of faculty. Faculty-student ratios have gone from about 29 to 1 in the late 1970s to around 13 to 1 today.

(2) The big increase in clinical legal education. Clinics are by their nature very expensive, since you have to have a very low faculty to student ratio in them, plus they usually require quite a bit of administrative support.

(3) The proliferation of administrative services. Non-faculty staffs are far larger now than they were a generation ago. For example 30 years ago the vast majority of law schools had skeletal or even non-existent career services offices. Today almost every law school has several full-time CSO staff members .

(4) The amenities race. Schools push to build expensive new facilities, justifying this with arguments that they're necessary to compete for students and for rankings (this is of course the very definition of a negative-sum competition).

The result: average PRIVATE law school tuition in 2014 dollars:

1974: $11,057

1984: $15,721

1994: $25,295

2004: $33,777

2014: $43,398


Average RESIDENT PUBLIC law school tuition in 2014 dollars:

1974: $3438

1984: $4200

1994: $8013

2004: $14,863

2014: $24,946

Again these numbers are inflation-adjusted. ( Median household income in the US has barely risen over the past 40 years in constant dollars.)

As for what to do about it, I agree that by far the most efficient solution would be hard caps on federal loans plus making private loans dischargeable in bankruptcy. You have to do both things, however, as doing only the first would simply be a giant giveaway to the financial services industry.


Why should private loans be dischargeable in bankruptcy? This would just give people an incentive to borrow money for pieces of paper and again drive up the price of education just through a different way of financing.

.

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General_Tso
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby General_Tso » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:24 pm

But it would disincent lenders from making irresponsible loans . . .

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:29 pm

General_Tso wrote:But it would disincent lenders from making irresponsible loans . . .


Unless they just tranche them up and start selling them to one another..... I agree that would be better than the current system, though. My point is there are ways around that and no one should be in the business of preying on 22 year olds trying to get an education because the education wouldn't be so expensive in the first place if the capital wasn't available.

I think that is the right answer, it just isn't the answer those who are eager to prey on the naïveté of the young want.
Last edited by asdfdfdfadfas on Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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smaug
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby smaug » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:29 pm

Lord Randolph McDuff, the only people who I know who post like you eat their own farts.

Do you eat farts, Mr. McDuff?

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:30 pm

asdfdfdfadfas wrote:
General_Tso wrote:But it would disincent lenders from making irresponsible loans . . .


Unless they just tranche them up and start selling them to one another..... I agree that would be better than the current system, though. My point is there are ways around that and no one should be in the business of preying on 22 year olds trying to get an education because the education wouldn't be so expensive in the first place if the capital wasn't available.

The whole point is to make the capital unavailable by removing the federal guarantee. You'd be pretty insane to loan someone 200k to get a law degree from Cooley but right now a private lender who does that takes no risk.

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General_Tso
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby General_Tso » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:32 pm

Can you show me examples of 100k+ unsecured & dischargeable loans, thanks

Lord Randolph McDuff
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Lord Randolph McDuff » Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:54 pm

smaug wrote:Lord Randolph McDuff, the only people who I know who post like you eat their own farts.

Do you eat farts, Mr. McDuff?


No I do not eat farts.

I don't mean to annoy you. Did I annoy you because you are annoyed by optimism, which is the case with many who frequent internet message boards, or simply because I am annoying?

I suppose I can be pretty insufferable, especially to the doom and gloomers.

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asdfdfdfadfas
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby asdfdfdfadfas » Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:00 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
asdfdfdfadfas wrote:
General_Tso wrote:But it would disincent lenders from making irresponsible loans . . .


Unless they just tranche them up and start selling them to one another..... I agree that would be better than the current system, though. My point is there are ways around that and no one should be in the business of preying on 22 year olds trying to get an education because the education wouldn't be so expensive in the first place if the capital wasn't available.

The whole point is to make the capital unavailable by removing the federal guarantee. You'd be pretty insane to loan someone 200k to get a law degree from Cooley but right now a private lender who does that takes no risk.


I guess I'd be fine with this because then banks would never make the loan. If you are going to do this you have to ensure that banks can't just play hot potato with the risk by tranching them up and selling them as Student Backed Securities :lol: :lol:

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smaug
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby smaug » Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:04 pm

Lord Randolph McDuff wrote:
smaug wrote:Lord Randolph McDuff, the only people who I know who post like you eat their own farts.

Do you eat farts, Mr. McDuff?


No I do not eat farts.

I don't mean to annoy you. Did I annoy you because you are annoyed by optimism, which is the case with many who frequent internet message boards, or simply because I am annoying?

I suppose I can be pretty insufferable, especially to the doom and gloomers.


To be annoyed would suggest your comments registered at a level beyond "lol" for me. They didn't.

I think you're wrong and it's funny how wrong you are. It's OK to be an optimist. It's another thing to be dumb and not realize how dumb you are. I expect you're in the second category.

Mr. McDuff: where did you go to school? What do you do?




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