JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:00 pm

Saddle Up wrote:The fallacy of threads like this is that they encompass the results of all law schools and the legal employment nationwide.

Focusing on the top 20 law schools (using LST data) it seems that unemployment would be in single figures not 15%. Plus, the income from most firm jobs would more than satisfactorily cover tuition debt. Cannot believe that very many students at highly ranked schools are overly concerned today about landing at their feet.

I get that people (including me) have issues with some of Cougar's rhetoric but this response is really silly.

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UVAIce
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby UVAIce » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:11 pm

Saddle Up wrote:The fallacy of threads like this is that they encompass the results of all law schools and the legal employment nationwide.

Focusing on the top 20 law schools (using LST data) it seems that unemployment would be in single figures not 15%. Plus, the income from most firm jobs would more than satisfactorily cover tuition debt. Cannot believe that very many students at highly ranked schools are overly concerned today about landing at their feet.


If it makes you feel better, I'm sure the underemployment rate from the T20 is pretty high. Not to mention the percentage of people in non-favored work positions (big law, Art III clerkships, and good PI/Gov).

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AreJay711
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby AreJay711 » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:13 pm

Saddle Up wrote:The fallacy of threads like this is that they encompass the results of all law schools and the legal employment nationwide.

Focusing on the top 20 law schools (using LST data) it seems that unemployment would be in single figures not 15%. Plus, the income from most firm jobs would more than satisfactorily cover tuition debt. Cannot believe that very many students at highly ranked schools are overly concerned today about landing at their feet.


Yeah, most do land on their feet. Some people get fucked though and it's not really clear who they will be before the dust settles, so the concern is there.

xiao_long
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby xiao_long » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:46 pm

jepper wrote:
JCougar wrote:
starry eyed wrote:yea the plight of laborer vs business owner still applies with associate/partner.

Jcougar doesn't seem to have a profound understanding of economics.


Not at all. I don't think there's any industry where turnover is so high in the first 1-5 years of your job. Unless you get some kind of government job straight out of law school, you're going to get used for billable hours and then spit out when you get too expensive. This may work out okay for some in Biglaw who are thrifty and/or don't have a lot of debt, but this model applies to small law, too, where you don't get paid enough to even make interest payments.

Turnover in law is epic compared to other industries.


You keep making this reference to not being able to even make the interest payment. I realize that it is a fact that the average law student faces a significant amount of debt, but you say it like the average debt of all unemployed lawyers is 200k. I have a hard time believing that.


The current COA for a local resident going to Ole Miss is $101,658. The current COA for someone going to Columbia is $257,265. Keep in mind these numbers only take into account 9 months for cost of living, and does not account for debt from undergrad. Ole Miss and Columbia are likely two extremes on the law school COA spectrum, but I think it suggests that a total student debt burden of around 200k is really not that uncommon.

According to a 2012 ABA report, "it is not uncommon for law school graduates to carry a debt burden of between $150,000 and $200,000, and many carry much more."

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby jepper » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:52 pm

xiao_long wrote:
jepper wrote:
JCougar wrote:
starry eyed wrote:yea the plight of laborer vs business owner still applies with associate/partner.

Jcougar doesn't seem to have a profound understanding of economics.


Not at all. I don't think there's any industry where turnover is so high in the first 1-5 years of your job. Unless you get some kind of government job straight out of law school, you're going to get used for billable hours and then spit out when you get too expensive. This may work out okay for some in Biglaw who are thrifty and/or don't have a lot of debt, but this model applies to small law, too, where you don't get paid enough to even make interest payments.

Turnover in law is epic compared to other industries.


You keep making this reference to not being able to even make the interest payment. I realize that it is a fact that the average law student faces a significant amount of debt, but you say it like the average debt of all unemployed lawyers is 200k. I have a hard time believing that.


The current COA for a local resident going to Ole Miss is $101,658. The current COA for someone going to Columbia is $257,265. Keep in mind these numbers only take into account 9 months for cost of living, and does not account for debt from undergrad. Ole Miss and Columbia are likely two extremes on the law school COA spectrum, but I think it suggests that a total student debt burden of around 200k is really not that uncommon.

According to a 2012 ABA report, "it is not uncommon for law school graduates to carry a debt burden of between $150,000 and $200,000, and many carry much more."


Yeah I get all that, but you are not addressing my point. Sure, there are a ton of graduates with over 200K in loans, but I would assume people with this high of a debt load would have paid for schools where they are virtually guaranteed a job (i.e. HYSCCN). And if there are people going into that high of debt without such promising job prospects, well that is their own damn fault.

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Pneumonia
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Pneumonia » Mon Apr 06, 2015 2:54 pm

jepper wrote: Yeah I get all that, but you are not addressing my point. Sure, there are a ton of graduates with over 200K in loans, but I would assume people with this high of a debt load would have paid for schools where they are virtually guaranteed a job (i.e. HYSCCN). And if there are people going into that high of debt without such promising job prospects, well that is their own damn fault.


So much wrong here.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby jepper » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:04 pm

Pneumonia wrote:
jepper wrote: Yeah I get all that, but you are not addressing my point. Sure, there are a ton of graduates with over 200K in loans, but I would assume people with this high of a debt load would have paid for schools where they are virtually guaranteed a job (i.e. HYSCCN). And if there are people going into that high of debt without such promising job prospects, well that is their own damn fault.


So much wrong here.


I could be wrong. Like I said, I am assuming. Thanks for providing the evidence.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:06 pm

Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby FSK » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:13 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.


Law schools still directly and indirectly encourage, and financially require for their survival, you to make these poor choices.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby starry eyed » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:13 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.


are you implying that bc of the drop in applicants due to the higher transparency, that there will be less of an unemployment problem is the next few years? Or do you think the glut of unemployed lawyers from c/o 2010 will still be lingering and competing with new grads?

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starry eyed
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby starry eyed » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:14 pm

flawschoolkid wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.


Law schools still directly and indirectly encourage, and financially require for their survival, you to make these poor choices.


after 4 years in college, you need to of least learned to read through bullshit

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:16 pm

starry eyed wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.


are you implying that bc of the drop in applicants due to the higher transparency, that there will be less of an unemployment problem is the next few years? Or do you think the glut of unemployed lawyers from c/o 2010 will still be lingering and competing with new grads?

I'm saying there is more transparency today. Someone going now for the same price as 2010 does have a better employment outlook but it's still nowhere near good enough to justify major debt at the vast majority of schools.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby FSK » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:20 pm

starry eyed wrote:
flawschoolkid wrote:
Tiago Splitter wrote:Yeah you were kind of stupid for taking out 150k debt to go to a TT in 2007, but not nearly as stupid as someone is today. Far less information out there even just five years ago. Most unemployed grads went to school back then.


Law schools still directly and indirectly encourage, and financially require for their survival, you to make these poor choices.


after 4 years in college, you need to of least learned to read through bullshit


Yeah, you do. But you know what? A TON OF PEOPLE DIDN'T at the behest of their schools, and now they're fucked. Have some compassion, have a more complex understanding of the situation, or just shove off. Comments like that don't benefit anybody.

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starry eyed
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby starry eyed » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:25 pm

this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes.

this kind of rhetoric has the opposite effect of what some of you are going for. at least for me.
Last edited by starry eyed on Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

jepper
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby jepper » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:27 pm

starry eyed wrote:this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes


People didn't know drugs were AS BAD for you before the campaign and now they are drug addicts. Have some compassion.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:31 pm

starry eyed wrote:this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes.

this kind of rhetoric has the opposite effect of what some of you are going for. at least for me.

Look trust me when I say I'm the first one to go after shitty scamblogging, particularly when the Campos' of the world manipulate numbers the same way law schools do. It doesn't help anyone.

But there's no need to argue with facts. There is a hell of a lot more information out there today than there was for most people who graduated in the last few years.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby TheSpanishMain » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:33 pm

jepper wrote:
starry eyed wrote:this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes


People didn't know drugs were AS BAD for you before the campaign and now they are drug addicts. Have some compassion.


Wait, do you not have compassion for drug addicts?

You can sympathize with someone while still recognizing that they're at least partly to blame for their predicament, you know.

jepper
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby jepper » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:41 pm

TheSpanishMain wrote:
jepper wrote:
starry eyed wrote:this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes


People didn't know drugs were AS BAD for you before the campaign and now they are drug addicts. Have some compassion.


Wait, do you not have compassion for drug addicts?

You can sympathize with someone while still recognizing that they're at least partly to blame for their predicament, you know.


Does it make me feel sorry for them? Yes. Do I understand once you get in that situation it is very difficult to get out? Yes. Do I think that they are only "partly" to blame? No.

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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby jepper » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:44 pm

Lets not derail this too much. It was only a joke. No need to think I would just be ok with doing away with people who are in really bad situations.

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starry eyed
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby starry eyed » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:50 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
starry eyed wrote:this thread reminds me of the "drugs are bad" campaign and it's successes.

this kind of rhetoric has the opposite effect of what some of you are going for. at least for me.

Look trust me when I say I'm the first one to go after shitty scamblogging, particularly when the Campos' of the world manipulate numbers the same way law schools do. It doesn't help anyone.

But there's no need to argue with facts. There is a hell of a lot more information out there today than there was for most people who graduated in the last few years.


i totally agree and appreciate resources like tls for their roles but i'm just saying that this thread in particular is not helping fight the law school scam. in fact, Jcougar (scamblogging) is hurting the movement's credibility in my opinion.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Tiago Splitter » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:51 pm

Those posts are far too long for any prospective to actually read so no need to worry.

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starry eyed
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby starry eyed » Mon Apr 06, 2015 3:53 pm

lol

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JohannDeMann
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby JohannDeMann » Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:13 pm

Some people may be dumb to do it, but the economy also forces people's hands sometimes. In the fall of my 1L I started researching law school and figured out exactly what was going on. I pegged my chance at 25% for a successful outcome. I graduated from undergrad in the peak of the recession. I had applied to lots of jobs and never sniffed an interview for a job paying more than 30k so I stayed in law school. I knew I was going in lots of debt, but I had no other options. I needed the loan money at that point just for rent and food. I continued applying for jobs my first year of law school never getting interviews. Did well enough 1L year that I figured I was pot committed considering the lack of job opps I had and 1/3 of the way into getting a skill. The economy is a bit better today, but there are still people who go to T3s that have no other options in life. I know TLS doesn't understand it, but their choices are rack up credit card debt and become a deadbeat making minimum wage or roll the dice on the small chance at a T3 which also guarantees food and shelter for the next 3 years.

It's a shitty situation all around, but the people going in lots of debt usually aren't dumb - they usually don't have a better option.

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Desert Fox
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Desert Fox » Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:15 pm

JohannDeMann wrote:Some people may be dumb to do it, but the economy also forces people's hands sometimes. In the fall of my 1L I started researching law school and figured out exactly what was going on. I pegged my chance at 25% for a successful outcome. I graduated from undergrad in the peak of the recession. I had applied to lots of jobs and never sniffed an interview for a job paying more than 30k so I stayed in law school. I knew I was going in lots of debt, but I had no other options. I needed the loan money at that point just for rent and food. I continued applying for jobs my first year of law school never getting interviews. Did well enough 1L year that I figured I was pot committed considering the lack of job opps I had and 1/3 of the way into getting a skill. The economy is a bit better today, but there are still people who go to T3s that have no other options in life. I know TLS doesn't understand it, but their choices are rack up credit card debt and become a deadbeat making minimum wage or roll the dice on the small chance at a T3 which also guarantees food and shelter for the next 3 years.

It's a shitty situation all around, but the people going in lots of debt usually aren't dumb - they usually don't have a better option.


That is a terrible rationalization. I can't find a job, I need legal scholarship or I shall die!

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Saddle Up
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Re: JD Unemployment Reaches New High (15%)

Postby Saddle Up » Mon Apr 06, 2015 4:50 pm

AreJay711 wrote:
Saddle Up wrote:The fallacy of threads like this is that they encompass the results of all law schools and the legal employment nationwide.

Focusing on the top 20 law schools (using LST data) it seems that unemployment would be in single figures not 15%. Plus, the income from most firm jobs would more than satisfactorily cover tuition debt. Cannot believe that very many students at highly ranked schools are overly concerned today about landing at their feet.


Yeah, most do land on their feet. Some people get fucked though and it's not really clear who they will be before the dust settles, so the concern is there.

True. They will always be some concern and anxiety even if you attend HYSCCNP but the stats for these schools (and those in the top 20) is that unemployment is in the single digits. This is according to LST, using 2013 data. Please note that the legal job market has significantly improved since 2013 and will likely be even better in 2014 and especially in 2015.

I agree with an earlier poster that a few schools use school-funded-jobs to skew their numbers to enhance their USNWR rankings. This is unfortunate but this practice seems limited to only a few schools.




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