Applicants down another 9.1% from last year--Update 12/12

(Applications Advice, Letters of Recommendation . . . )
User avatar
Tiago Splitter
Posts: 15508
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 am

Applicants down another 9.1% from last year--Update 12/12

Postby Tiago Splitter » Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:54 pm

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/

Apps down big from the 165-180 crowd.

pylon wrote:
http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/three-year-volume wrote:Applicants are down 9.1% and applications are down 10.5% from 2014.

As of December 12th, 2014.
Last edited by Tiago Splitter on Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:10 am, edited 2 times in total.

User avatar
Rigo
Posts: 11952
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:19 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Rigo » Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:04 pm

Interesting how the 160-164 crowd is barely down at all compared to the other categories.
RETAKE KIDS!

Moneytrees
Posts: 646
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Moneytrees » Sat Dec 06, 2014 12:57 pm

That's a pretty huge drop.

Lions1913
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:34 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Lions1913 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:13 pm

...
Last edited by Lions1913 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
RCSOB657
Posts: 2276
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:50 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby RCSOB657 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:14 pm

5 Dec
Spivey Consulting @SpiveyConsult

Fifty-two schools show an increase in applications, while 146 show a decline and 3 show no change.


Are those 52 lower, middle, or upper end schools?

mvp99
Posts: 1384
Joined: Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:00 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby mvp99 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:34 pm

Hopefully, this decline coupled with some federal loan requirement will make 150 schools end operations in the next 10 years

User avatar
A. Nony Mouse
Posts: 22846
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:51 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:36 pm

Lions1913 wrote:What's to say this data is reliable?

Spivey usually gets it from the source or from some reliable connection to the source - he's certainly generally reliable.

Lions1913
Posts: 144
Joined: Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:34 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Lions1913 » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:38 pm

[..
Last edited by Lions1913 on Wed Dec 17, 2014 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
A. Nony Mouse
Posts: 22846
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:51 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Sat Dec 06, 2014 1:49 pm

Lions1913 wrote:
A. Nony Mouse wrote:
Lions1913 wrote:What's to say this data is reliable?

Spivey usually gets it from the source or from some reliable connection to the source - he's certainly generally reliable.


I trust that's true. I'd just love to see the data for myself so I can mine it a bit.

You could ask Spivey directly - he has a thread here in the professionals forum.

User avatar
Tiago Splitter
Posts: 15508
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Tiago Splitter » Sat Dec 06, 2014 2:48 pm

mvp99 wrote:Hopefully, this decline coupled with some federal loan requirement will make 150 schools end operations in the next 10 years

We don't need schools to go away, just fewer students. If anything I'd prefer that all schools stay open so the competition for students remains fierce.

User avatar
PeanutsNJam
Posts: 3699
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:57 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby PeanutsNJam » Sun Dec 07, 2014 5:29 am

Does this mean more T-14's will be willing to dip below 3.0's to get 170+'s? NW is the only T14 that somewhat regularly accepts sub 3.0's right. If the other schools want to maintain their medians, don't they have to start being more open to splitters?

Okie25
Posts: 86
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2014 7:16 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Okie25 » Wed Dec 17, 2014 8:53 pm


User avatar
pylon
Posts: 929
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:58 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby pylon » Wed Dec 17, 2014 10:39 pm

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/three-year-volume wrote:Applicants are down 9.1% and applications are down 10.5% from 2014.

As of December 12th, 2014.

User avatar
Rigo
Posts: 11952
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2014 3:19 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Rigo » Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:16 pm

It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

User avatar
pylon
Posts: 929
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:58 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby pylon » Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:54 pm

Dirigo wrote:It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

On TLS, one gets the impression that January is so late that you're better off just waiting a cycle. I had no idea the majority of applications come in after December.

User avatar
pylon
Posts: 929
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:58 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby pylon » Wed Dec 17, 2014 11:56 pm

Also interesting to note that on average, each applicant applies to ~6.4 schools (88,926 applications submitted by 13,816 applicants).

User avatar
RCSOB657
Posts: 2276
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:50 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby RCSOB657 » Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:01 am

I'm almost stressing out because I've only got 5 of 6 admits I'm expecting, but only 3 scholarship packets. One reason I'm glad Dirigo linked that negotiations thread was it showing the glaring need for patience. Crunch time for most post app decisions isn't until March.

I'm likely going to apply to more stretch schools in late January, but like stated in another thread it would be easier for students to send out more apps if the $28 reports weren't $28.

suppy183
Posts: 98
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 10:40 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby suppy183 » Thu Dec 18, 2014 12:22 am

pylon wrote:
Dirigo wrote:It's interesting that this time last year, only 28% of the the final applicant count had applied.
Applying in January certainly isn't "late" anymore.

On TLS, one gets the impression that January is so late that you're better off just waiting a cycle. I had no idea the majority of applications come in after December.


If you look at the proportion of 170+ applicants (as a proxy for "T14" applicants) who've applied as of whenever Spivey posted those applicant stats broken down by LSAT range, it's more like 50% of the final total. I can see why a January app would be late for the purposes of most people on this site.

User avatar
PeanutsNJam
Posts: 3699
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:57 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby PeanutsNJam » Thu Dec 18, 2014 1:56 am

The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

Plus T14 deadlines are usually early Feb, so January is late. TTTT deadline is like May or something, so yeah apply to those whenever with whatever score. I don't think it's helpful to aggregate such extremes.

User avatar
t-14orbust
Posts: 2066
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2012 4:43 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby t-14orbust » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:05 am

Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

hill1334
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:31 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby hill1334 » Thu Dec 18, 2014 2:10 am

PeanutsNJam wrote:The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

Plus T14 deadlines are usually early Feb, so January is late. TTTT deadline is like May or something, so yeah apply to those whenever with whatever score. I don't think it's helpful to aggregate such extremes.


While there may be some truth to what you are saying, I still think this is promising news for people applying to the T14. According to the info on Spivey, applications from the 165-180 crowd are actually down the most (approximately 15% across the board)(http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/first- ... ion-cycle/). Most people in the 165-180 LSAT range won't be applying to TT/TTT/TTTT schools in the first place, so I don't think it is actually accurate to say that "[a] majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore."

Hutz_and_Goodman
Posts: 1413
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2012 10:42 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Hutz_and_Goodman » Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:58 am

For people going to biglaw, the precipitous drop in 165-180 applicants is good news (job security, salary leverage) because associates at these firms come almost exclusively from this group.

User avatar
Tiago Splitter
Posts: 15508
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:09 am

PeanutsNJam wrote:The pessimist in me is saying that the aggregate data probably doesn't say much about what's directly relevant to TLS (T1 and up schools, T14). I wouldn't be surprised if T14 apps didn't drop at all. A majority of the data is probably random people not applying to TT/TTT/TTTT anymore. Which is great for them I guess but it doesn't change things for us.

The people with high scores just aren't there though. There could be more 3.5/165 types applying to the T14 to make up the gap, but that's still a great thing for people with typical T14 numbers.

User avatar
pylon
Posts: 929
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2014 8:58 pm

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby pylon » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:12 am

t-14orbust wrote:Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

If we're talking about just LSAT medians, then I don't think they drop (maybe a point or two but nothing major). However I do think at some point they'll have to sacrifice their GPA medians if they want the LSAT scores. We've seen it happening in recent years, but my guess is they dip lower and lower as these 170+ LSATs become more rare.

User avatar
Tiago Splitter
Posts: 15508
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2011 1:20 am

Re: Applicants down another 8.5% from this time last year

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Dec 18, 2014 10:28 am

pylon wrote:
t-14orbust wrote:Anyone predicting t14 medians to drop again? HYS?

If we're talking about just LSAT medians, then I don't think they drop (maybe a point or two but nothing major). However I do think at some point they'll have to sacrifice their GPA medians if they want the LSAT scores. We've seen it happening in recent years, but my guess is they dip lower and lower as these 170+ LSATs become more rare.

A point is actually pretty major. Harvard has been locked into the 173 forever. Stanford just went from 170 to 172 because they can so it seems nothing important will happen at YS.




Return to “Law School Admissions Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], jjcorvino and 1 guest