2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (Winners Announced)

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04102014
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby 04102014 » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:31 pm

If they don't release the teaser today I will be so ir9000.

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neprep
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby neprep » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:31 pm

HorseThief wrote:
neprep wrote:
HorseThief wrote:
I literally lol'd at that. Thanks.

Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU. Conversely, NYU lost LSAT points across the board and their already low median GPA really hurt them.

Still, I don't know how Morse does all of his weights, so I'm probably wrong.


http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-rankings


I factored in all of those weights, but there are still more that I didn't know. For example, if a school's median LSAT is 170 and that accounts for 12.5% of the total score, how do you assign points? Compare it to the average of all schools? The max? There are too many ways to play with the numbers for me to feel confident about my final rankings.


Oh, right. I thought you were asking for a way to figure out the relative importance of the factors you identified. In any case, I think even if we get more granular on the methodology, we can never be too confident about the final prediction because of the professional and peer perception scores.

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neprep
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby neprep » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:32 pm

ohpobrecito wrote:If they don't release the teaser today I will be so ir9000.


Hmm I'm not optimistic. Every day they seem to be doing one teaser (one day business, one day engineering, one day medicine, etc.) and today they did education. Unless the decide to give us two teasers today… :)

ETA: your tar reminds me of the worst episode of Sherlock till date.
Last edited by neprep on Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

04102014
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby 04102014 » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:33 pm

neprep wrote:
HorseThief wrote:
neprep wrote:
HorseThief wrote:
I literally lol'd at that. Thanks.

Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU. Conversely, NYU lost LSAT points across the board and their already low median GPA really hurt them.

Still, I don't know how Morse does all of his weights, so I'm probably wrong.


http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-rankings


I factored in all of those weights, but there are still more that I didn't know. For example, if a school's median LSAT is 170 and that accounts for 12.5% of the total score, how do you assign points? Compare it to the average of all schools? The max? There are too many ways to play with the numbers for me to feel confident about my final rankings.


Oh, right. I thought you were asking for a way to figure out the relative importance of the factors you identified. In any case, I think even if we get more granular on the methodology, we can never be too confident about the final prediction because of the professional and peer perception scores.


If there a chart or something floating around with past assessment scores?

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MikeSpivey
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby MikeSpivey » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:36 pm

ohpobrecito wrote:

If there a chart or something floating around with past assessment scores?


Yes I have seen tons, so I bet there is something floating around.

Also, around 2008/2009 I saw a very detailed breakdown from Morse in a PowerPoint slide presentation online that was fascinating. It also had an error in it. If only I could access my old Vanderbilt and Wash u email accounts I could find it -- but obviously I can not.

Maybe some search engine badass can produce that.

oakroom
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby oakroom » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:43 pm

HorseThief wrote:Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU.


I thought UVA dropped a point on their LSAT median?

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snagglepuss
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby snagglepuss » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:45 pm

Last edited by snagglepuss on Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

04102014
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby 04102014 » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:45 pm

oakroom wrote:
HorseThief wrote:Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU.


I thought UVA dropped a point on their LSAT median?


They did. He was INCORRECT.

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aboutmydaylight
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby aboutmydaylight » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:47 pm

UVA dropped. Berkeley, Duke, and Cornell held as well as HY, and S went up 1.

04102014
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby 04102014 » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:50 pm

Hey Spivey, out of curiosity, do schools know their rank before they are released to the general public? Time to prep for ~damage control~?

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MikeSpivey
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby MikeSpivey » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:53 pm

ohpobrecito wrote:Hey Spivey, out of curiosity, do schools know their rank before they are released to the general public? Time to prep for ~damage control~?


yep they get them early am the day before.

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HorseThief
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby HorseThief » Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:10 pm

ohpobrecito wrote:
oakroom wrote:
HorseThief wrote:Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU.


I thought UVA dropped a point on their LSAT median?


They did. He was INCORRECT.


Dammit, I can't even read my own charts. Sorry. The score must have gotten boosted somewhere else. Please enjoy this giant chart as an apology.

Image

04102014
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby 04102014 » Fri Mar 07, 2014 4:14 pm

HorseThief wrote:
ohpobrecito wrote:
oakroom wrote:
HorseThief wrote:Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU.


I thought UVA dropped a point on their LSAT median?


They did. He was INCORRECT.


Dammit, I can't even read my own charts. Sorry. The score must have gotten boosted somewhere else. Please enjoy this giant chart as an apology.


:lol:

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cotiger
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby cotiger » Sat Mar 08, 2014 9:05 am

HorseThief wrote:
neprep wrote:
HorseThief wrote:
I literally lol'd at that. Thanks.

Fwiw, UVA's had a big year numbers wise: Y/P is working in their favor, they were the only T14 with a boost in median LSAT, the new employment numbers work in their favor, and the bar passage rates are biased towards them vs NYU. Conversely, NYU lost LSAT points across the board and their already low median GPA really hurt them.

Still, I don't know how Morse does all of his weights, so I'm probably wrong.


http://www.usnews.com/education/best-gr ... s-rankings


I factored in all of those weights, but there are still more that I didn't know. For example, if a school's median LSAT is 170 and that accounts for 12.5% of the total score, how do you assign points? Compare it to the average of all schools? The max? There are too many ways to play with the numbers for me to feel confident about my final rankings.


Here's how they assign points: http://agoraphilia.blogspot.com/2010/12 ... n-law.html

You can see there that what makes YHS the dominant three is their spending per student. And the T14 are consistently the same schools mostly because of their reputation scores. LSAT medians actually have a very negligible effect on the rankings among the T14, with GPA medians actually contributing to greater variance in the scores.

Here's some further analysis: http://agoraphilia.blogspot.com/2009/08 ... t-way.html

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HorseThief
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Cont. (GTFIH, ONLY 5 DAYS REMAIN)

Postby HorseThief » Sat Mar 08, 2014 1:41 pm

cotiger wrote:Here's how they assign points: http://agoraphilia.blogspot.com/2010/12 ... n-law.html

You can see there that what makes YHS the dominant three is their spending per student. And the T14 are consistently the same schools mostly because of their reputation scores. LSAT medians actually have a very negligible effect on the rankings among the T14, with GPA medians actually contributing to greater variance in the scores.

Here's some further analysis: http://agoraphilia.blogspot.com/2009/08 ... t-way.html


Thanks for the info. This only changed my model slightly, but I think this might have a bigger impact on the actual ratings. The ABA stopped collecting data on expenditures per student this past year, though US News still asked schools for it. US News hasn't said if they'll actually use it in the rankings, and if they don't, Yale could actually drop a bit. When I ran the numbers without expenditures, Harvard beat out Yale by the tiniest bit, enough to make it tied for 1. However, instinct tells me that it'll still be Y, H/S.

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Dafaq
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby Dafaq » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:10 pm

Any chance that COL might impact USNWR this year? Apparently that stat influences the ATL ranking.

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HorseThief
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby HorseThief » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:19 pm

I haven't seen anything concrete about it, although some have speculated that COA might somehow be used in lieu of expenditures per student.

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t14splitter
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby t14splitter » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:23 pm

1. Yale
2. Stanford
3. Harvard
4. Chicago
5. Columbia
6. NYU
7. UVA
8. Penn
9. Berkeley
9. Michigan
11. Duke
11. Northwestern
13. Cornell
14. Georgetown
15. Vanderbilt
16. Texas
17. UCLA
18. USC
19. WUSTL
20. George Washington
21. Minnesota
22. Emory
23. Alabama
24. Notre Dame
25. Indiana

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koval
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby koval » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:37 pm

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North
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby North » Sat Mar 08, 2014 3:45 pm

t14splitter wrote:1. Yale
2. Stanford
3. Harvard
4. Chicago
5. Columbia
6. NYU
7. UVA
8. Penn
9. Berkeley
9. Michigan
11. Duke
11. Northwestern
13. Cornell
14. Georgetown
15. Vanderbilt
16. Texas
17. UCLA
18. USC
19. WUSTL
20. George Washington
21. Minnesota
22. Emory
23. Alabama
24. Notre Dame
25. Indiana

Got to read the OP brother. We got a fancy program this year that you put your rankings into.

ETA: TY for dat UVA bump doe bro.

Dolphine
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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FINAL THREE DAYS)

Postby Dolphine » Sat Mar 08, 2014 4:06 pm

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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FIX YOUR SUBMISSIONS FFS)

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Re: 2015 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (FIX YOUR SUBMISSIONS FFS)

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