Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:32 pm

Seoulless wrote:So are there solid grounds for us to say that those applying in January are no longer at a major disadvantage?


For the vast majority of applicants and schools, this is very much correct.

Creditisgood
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby Creditisgood » Sat Jan 11, 2014 6:23 pm

That is a wonderful idea. I think I'll do just that today --love that show. In fact, Karen and I are going to do a video spoof of it...."but...but please give us $10 million we are so passionate we love our business..." I've also asked people to try to dig up the retake/first-time split for you guys. Hopefully someone has it already.


Robert from Shark Tank will answer " There is belief and then there is foolishness"
Great line :lol:

daryldixon
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby daryldixon » Sat Jan 11, 2014 6:26 pm

zman wrote:It's still significant. Just want until 2013 class employment stats come up, fewer people will matriculate when they see the results.

This is at least partly incorrect. I know that the employment numbers are significantly up at my t14. But I don't know about lower ranked schools.

Newyork123
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby Newyork123 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:29 am

Hi -- does anyone think that the December takers number was low becuase a few centers were closed because of weather? Did they allow make up tests? Do we think most people took the make up option? If so, were those people included in December numbers? I realize that the centers closed were not big ones.

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timeandspace11
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby timeandspace11 » Tue Jan 14, 2014 5:52 am

zman wrote:
AT9 wrote:
zman wrote:It's still significant. Just want until 2013 class employment stats come up, fewer people will matriculate when they see the results.


Why is that? Are the stats expected to be worse than 11/12 or something?

Also, when do those stats come out?


Remember class of 2013 had the most matriculants ever. Even if the job market was as good and even a little better than 11/12 it would still be really bad.




Thats a really good point. I think over 52,000 people enrolled that year. It is going to be pretty rough. For comparison it seems like less than 40,000 people entered this past year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/law-sc ... 2013-12-17

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:48 am

timeandspace11 wrote:
zman wrote:
AT9 wrote:
zman wrote:It's still significant. Just want until 2013 class employment stats come up, fewer people will matriculate when they see the results.


Why is that? Are the stats expected to be worse than 11/12 or something?

Also, when do those stats come out?


Remember class of 2013 had the most matriculants ever. Even if the job market was as good and even a little better than 11/12 it would still be really bad.




Thats a really good point. I think over 52,000 people enrolled that year. It is going to be pretty rough. For comparison it seems like less than 40,000 people entered this past year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/law-sc ... 2013-12-17


I retweeted an interesting link to enrollment levels well before the 1970's if anyone is interested. Edit, here are the numbers:

1964: 22,753
1965: 24,167
1966: 24,077
1967: 24,267
1968: 23,652
1969: 29,128
1970: 34,713
1971: 36,171
1972: 35,131
1973: 37,018
1974: 38,074

Also a new link to application deadlines for the top 100 schools.
Last edited by MikeSpivey on Tue Jan 14, 2014 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

zman
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby zman » Tue Jan 14, 2014 12:27 pm

daryldixon wrote:
zman wrote:It's still significant. Just want until 2013 class employment stats come up, fewer people will matriculate when they see the results.

This is at least partly incorrect. I know that the employment numbers are significantly up at my t14. But I don't know about lower ranked schools.


You are talking about one elite school. Many schools outside the t14 had their biggest class EVER and the total amount of JDs handed out is the highest ever. There is no evidence that the job market is any better. Most schools will probably have worse real employment report.

daryldixon
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby daryldixon » Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:49 pm

zman wrote:
daryldixon wrote:
zman wrote:It's still significant. Just want until 2013 class employment stats come up, fewer people will matriculate when they see the results.

This is at least partly incorrect. I know that the employment numbers are significantly up at my t14. But I don't know about lower ranked schools.


You are talking about one elite school. Many schools outside the t14 had their biggest class EVER and the total amount of JDs handed out is the highest ever. There is no evidence that the job market is any better. Most schools will probably have worse real employment report.

I agree with you but the T14 really sets the market. Many prospective students look at the T14 employment stats to gauge whether or not they should apply. Somehow everyone assumes they are the special snowflake that will get in. Then once they have made law school a goal and told their family and friends they are applying, they decide they have to go somewhere no matter what.

I have seen it happen to dozens of my friends. Honestly, if pre-law students were rational consumers (that didn't have the ability to get unlimited loans) we really wouldn't have this oversupply problem.

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ManoftheHour
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby ManoftheHour » Wed Jan 15, 2014 2:06 pm

daryldixon wrote:Honestly, if pre-law students were rational consumers (that didn't have the ability to get unlimited loans) we really wouldn't have this oversupply problem.


Like me. :D

I have a few friends in their 3L years at TTTs and saddled with over 120k (one of them has over 180k) in debt and no jobs yet. So glad I decided to travel, work full time to get some experience and money, and take the LSAT 4 times.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jan 16, 2014 4:59 pm

So no admissions offices (to my knowledge) have been given the first-time/retake breakdowns.

But I did just blog the general LSAT administration numbers since 1987, which I find somewhat interesting:

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/787/

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Nonconsecutive
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby Nonconsecutive » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:07 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:So no admissions offices (to my knowledge) have been given the first-time/retake breakdowns.

But I did just blog the general LSAT administration numbers since 1987, which I find somewhat interesting:

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/787/


Wow, just wow.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:18 pm

Nonconsecutive wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:So no admissions offices (to my knowledge) have been given the first-time/retake breakdowns.

But I did just blog the general LSAT administration numbers since 1987, which I find somewhat interesting:

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/787/


Wow, just wow.


I can see when I entered this profession in 2000 why I stuck around.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Fri Jan 17, 2014 1:23 am

I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

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Nonconsecutive
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby Nonconsecutive » Fri Jan 17, 2014 1:30 am

MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.


I'm so very glad you can read tweets without a Twitter account.

Also, I really would not have guessed that, re: January 3rd last year total applicant applicant percentage numbers.

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jk148706
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby jk148706 » Fri Jan 17, 2014 11:07 am

MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.


In case you haven't seen the @spiveyconsult tweet:

As of 1/3/2014 applications are down 15.8 recent from the same time last year, applicants down 13.6 percent

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koalacity
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby koalacity » Fri Jan 17, 2014 2:40 pm

MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:

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nothingtosee
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby nothingtosee » Fri Jan 17, 2014 2:44 pm

koalacity wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:


That's like a total of 25 people.

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jk148706
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby jk148706 » Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:35 pm

nothingtosee wrote:
koalacity wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:


That's like a total of 25 people.


I wonder if 170+ is up or down

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nothingtosee
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby nothingtosee » Fri Jan 17, 2014 4:22 pm

jk148706 wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:
koalacity wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:


That's like a total of 25 people.


I wonder if 170+ is up or down


Down. 170-174 is down by enough to slightly outnumber the increase in 175+. So a very small drop overall of 170+

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lawschool22
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby lawschool22 » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:31 am

nothingtosee wrote:
koalacity wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:


That's like a total of 25 people.


Yeah the 175-180 percent shifts always sound worse/better than they are.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: Dec 2013 LSAT takers down 6.2%

Postby MikeSpivey » Mon Jan 20, 2014 11:54 am

lawschool22 wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:
koalacity wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:I have some data of interest for you guys I'll start tweeting.

Spivey Consulting ‏@SpiveyConsult 3h
Applicants with a LSAT score of 175-180 are up 15.8% this cycle from last. All other bandwidths are down

:shock: :shock: :shock:


That's like a total of 25 people.


Yeah the 175-180 percent shifts always sound worse/better than they are.


Small numbers have highly elastic percentage change. Which is why you always see one school each year with a 50% or more increase in applications. It is almost always the results of they have a small applicant pool AND had a really crappy previous cycle. that reminds me...I have that data too!




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