How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

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koval
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How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby koval » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:30 pm

There's a lot of talk about applications and LSAT administrations being down (December '13 LSAT even had percentiles slightly adjusted). What is the consensus on TLS about how low schools are going to go to pick up good applicants? Especially what is the T14 going to do (a lot of talk of them keeping everything but lessening class size)?

I know this is sort of a beaten to death subject but I'm questioning how valuable LSN is going to be when seeing how far up I should go in applying to schools.

BigZuck
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby BigZuck » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:36 pm

Apply and see what happens. Speculation by E-People won't be all that helpful unless they are adcoms. I would just assume you will do as well as LSN says and if you do better then that's gravy, baby.

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Nova
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Nova » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:37 pm

about the same as last year

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BLUERUFiO
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby BLUERUFiO » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:42 pm

Optimistically thinking, I am hoping it's better than last year because there are less applicants than last year. But, class sizes may just keep shrinking?

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ScottRiqui
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby ScottRiqui » Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:50 pm

BLUERUFiO wrote:Optimistically thinking, I am hoping it's better than last year because there are less applicants than last year. But, class sizes may just keep shrinking?


Class sizes haven't significantly shrunk overall, though. Comparing c/o 2016 with c/o 2015, the top fifty schools put together only lost 242 students (a 2% drop). For the T14, there was barely a 1% drop.

I'm curious to see if c/o 2017 is going to show a big drop, though.

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Clearly
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Clearly » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:11 am

Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...

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BLUERUFiO
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby BLUERUFiO » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:12 am

Ah, I see. Only very small drop for top tier. Grasping for straws here, but, smaller applicant pool for another cycle may equal looser admissions?

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Clearly
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Clearly » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:13 am

It won't be worse than last year.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby ScottRiqui » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:25 am

BLUERUFiO wrote:Ah, I see. Only very small drop for top tier. Grasping for straws here, but, smaller applicant pool for another cycle may equal looser admissions?


Oh, admissions definitely got "looser" from c/o 2015 to 2016. Most of the T1 schools just took hits to their medians rather than sacrifice class size.

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koval
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby koval » Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:31 am

Clearly wrote:Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...


Scores went up but percentiles went down?

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Nova
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Nova » Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:36 am

dcruss wrote:
Clearly wrote:Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...


Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Applicants are getting better at the lsat

Its been happening slowly since the lsat's inception

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Clearly
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Clearly » Sat Jan 04, 2014 1:43 am

dcruss wrote:
Clearly wrote:Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...


Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Percentiles are based on a 5 year average

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johnfootball
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby johnfootball » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:21 am

Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.

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outlawscr10
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby outlawscr10 » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:25 am

johnfootball wrote:
Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.

liammial
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby liammial » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:45 am

^where can i find these stats?

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koval
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby koval » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:48 am

johnfootball wrote:
Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.


That might explain the big curves this year, especially December '13. Possibility schools are going to make some concessions on GPA to try to keep their LSAT medians stable i.e. LSATs are going to get weighted more heavily this cycle?

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johnfootball
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby johnfootball » Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:56 am

http://spiveyconsulting.com/blog/2014-l ... rsus-2013/

Someone (I wish I could remember who as they deserve credit) took the raw numbers from https://twitter.com/SpiveyConsult and calculated that the increase in the number of 175+ scores is ~37 people. They also figured out that the total number of 170+ scores decreased (as of that date). Thanks to Spivey Consulting for providing the data!

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outlawscr10
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby outlawscr10 » Sat Jan 04, 2014 3:34 am

dcruss wrote:
johnfootball wrote:
Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.


That might explain the big curves this year, especially December '13. Possibility schools are going to make some concessions on GPA to try to keep their LSAT medians stable i.e. LSATs are going to get weighted more heavily this cycle?


I don't think LSAC would ruin the integrity of their test so law schools can maintain their medians. A bigger curve means a more difficult test; the tests are equated.

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Nova
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Nova » Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:30 am

dcruss wrote:
johnfootball wrote:
Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.


That might explain the big curves this year, especially December '13. Possibility schools are going to make some concessions on GPA to try to keep their LSAT medians stable i.e. LSATs are going to get weighted more heavily this cycle?

Idkwtfur tryina say. But no. It has nothing to do with the curve. The curve is equated

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koval
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby koval » Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:54 am

Nova wrote:
dcruss wrote:
johnfootball wrote:
Clearly wrote:lsat scores are up...


This is only true for the 175+ bracket, and by ~37 people. The total number of 170+ scores is down from this point last year. The number of test takers scoring in the 165-170 range has decreased as well.


That might explain the big curves this year, especially December '13. Possibility schools are going to make some concessions on GPA to try to keep their LSAT medians stable i.e. LSATs are going to get weighted more heavily this cycle?

Idkwtfur tryina say. But no. It has nothing to do with the curve. The curve is equated


Yeah I misunderstood how they curved the test. For some reason I thought they curved it in order to maintain percentiles, so like if a ~173 is 99th percentile and not enough people were scoring ~173 they'd do a greater curve next test to ensure enough people were scoring ~173 to maintain the 99th percentile. My bad, I knew they curved it before the test came out but I didn't know exactly how they curved it.

Arcticlynx
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Arcticlynx » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:04 am

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/lsats-administered

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/three-year-volume

Not going to be as big an applicant drop as last year. But I don't agree with the argument that another ~13% drop in applicants won't affect admissions numbers, maybe not as much at T10, but certainly everywhere down from there. Top schools are insulated, but T3's and T4's aren't. Even with the uptick in scores.... I think it's like trying to bail out a sinking boat with a couple of buckets, not going to be enough. That said we will have new data on applicant #'s and December LSAT volume soon.

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Nova
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby Nova » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:06 am

Arcticlynx wrote: T10

:|

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isuperserial
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby isuperserial » Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:09 am

Arcticlynx wrote:http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/lsats-administered

http://www.lsac.org/lsacresources/data/three-year-volume

Not going to be as big an applicant drop as last year. But I don't agree with the argument that another ~13% drop in applicants won't affect admissions numbers, maybe not as much at T10, but certainly everywhere down from there. Top schools are insulated, but T3's and T4's aren't. Even with the uptick in scores.... I think it's like trying to bail out a sinking boat with a couple of buckets, not going to be enough. That said we will have new data on applicant #'s and December LSAT volume soon.


Possibly because I'm a bit of a bonehead I didn't know this data was readily available! Good stuff. I agree with you that the top schools will be fine, as they generally always are, but I think we can expect a reasonable decline in the top 30 or so schools like we saw this year. What I really wonder is if we'll see any more landslides like we saw at Notre Dame and Minnesota this past year... I feel like at this point they must have developed some strategy that doesn't result in such a reckless drop. Maybe, but maybe not.

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cee cee
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby cee cee » Sat Jan 04, 2014 6:25 am

Nova wrote:
dcruss wrote:
Clearly wrote:Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...


Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Applicants are getting better at the lsat

Its been happening slowly since the lsat's inception

You know I love you anyway, but your posts are SO much better in Aubrey's voice

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IgosduIkana
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Re: How Different is this Cycle Going to Be

Postby IgosduIkana » Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:19 pm

cee cee wrote:
Nova wrote:
dcruss wrote:
Clearly wrote:Applications are down, but lsat scores are up...


Scores went up but percentiles went down?

Applicants are getting better at the lsat

Its been happening slowly since the lsat's inception

You know I love you anyway, but your posts are SO much better in Aubrey's voice


Also that picture makes me fantasize things every time you post.




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