Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

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AT9
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby AT9 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:02 pm

I noticed two of huge-drop schools also happen to not grant merit-based waivers: UNC and UF. You deserve it, you cheap bastards.

Overall, this is pretty awesome.

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nothingtosee
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby nothingtosee » Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:04 pm

Does anyone see correlation between applicants and LSAT medians? Because I don't...Minnesota and notre dame are two schools that got slammed in LSAT (2/3 point drops) but had decreases that aren't exceptional (8%) in applicants.

Thoughts?

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lawschool22
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby lawschool22 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 2:11 pm

nothingtosee wrote:Does anyone see correlation between applicants and LSAT medians? Because I don't...Minnesota and notre dame are two schools that got slammed in LSAT (2/3 point drops) but had decreases that aren't exceptional (8%) in applicants.

Thoughts?


A lot of this I think has to do with fee waivers. So perhaps those two schools gave out a ton of fee waivers to try and get more applicants, but still got slammed. Also there are some schools that for certain reasons (lay prestige, geographic location, actual prestige, etc.) will always have a steady stream of applicants, but the quality of which may not be what they like.

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Cicero76
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby Cicero76 » Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:19 pm

AT9 wrote:I noticed two of huge-drop schools also happen to not grant merit-based waivers: UNC and UF. You deserve it, you cheap bastards.

Overall, this is pretty awesome.


UF is my UG alma mater, and when I was going through the app process I could not for the life of me figure out who was running their law school. I suspected it was untrained chimpanzees, but I'm starting to think I overestimated them. It's embarrassing that the flagship university of the 4th largest state in America has a law school ranked barely in the top 50, and a lot of it is because of stupid stuff like no fee waivers and stingy scholarships. Truly embarrassing. I know the fee waiver thing is why I didn't apply despite my love for UF, and I'm sure I'm not alone.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby SparkyZZZ » Mon Jan 13, 2014 11:35 am

BentleyLittle wrote:
SparkyZZZ wrote:Yeah, Bama plying applicants with iTunes gift cards is pretty transparent. Either other schools will start doing the same thing, or Bama's rep will take a hit. You can only game the system for so long before people see through it.

I just don't buy that Bama is really a top 25.

I went to the Iowa admitted students thing last spring, and I felt like I was on the deck of the Titanic. I don't want to use the word "free-fall," but...


Could you expand on the Iowa ASW comment?



Sure Bentley, I'll do my best.

I was all set to go until I attended the AS thing last spring. Beyond just the general vibe of defeatism that hung over the proceedings. I will say that they spent an inordinate amount of time during the presentations defending/talking about the precipitous drop in application numbers (now I see why). I am all for frankness, but -seriously- if it is so bad that you feel you have to spend considerable time talking about it, it certainly doesn't give you the warm fuzzies as an applicant. While it is commendable to cut class size instead of dropping LSAT or GPA numbers, I got the feeling that they won't even be able keep that up much longer.

Add to that the drop in tuition and yesterday's bombshell in the Des Moines Register |--LinkRemoved-- | about them pushing the Iowa State Supreme Court to waive the Bar exam requirement for students that graduate from U of Iowa and Drake University, and it gives me the impression of desperation (at the minimum) and very possibly even total free-fall. Again, just what my gut is telling me.

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jk148706
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby jk148706 » Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:14 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote: Add to that the drop in tuition and yesterday's bombshell in the Des Moines Register |--LinkRemoved-- | about them pushing the Iowa State Supreme Court to waive the Bar exam requirement for students that graduate from U of Iowa and Drake University, and it gives me the impression of desperation (at the minimum) and very possibly even total free-fall. Again, just what my gut is telling me.


Over at ATL, they have praised Iowa for the tuition cut and the bar exam idea. As they put it today, "the Hawkeye State is looking better and better"

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby SparkyZZZ » Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:19 pm

Well, if they can stop the hemorrhaging, then they will look like geniuses. However, if these two gambits don't work, I don't see that they have anything left in the toolbox.

My prediction: U of Iowa ranked in the mid-30s within 2 years.

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isuperserial
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby isuperserial » Tue Jan 14, 2014 6:22 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote:
BentleyLittle wrote:
SparkyZZZ wrote:Yeah, Bama plying applicants with iTunes gift cards is pretty transparent. Either other schools will start doing the same thing, or Bama's rep will take a hit. You can only game the system for so long before people see through it.

I just don't buy that Bama is really a top 25.

I went to the Iowa admitted students thing last spring, and I felt like I was on the deck of the Titanic. I don't want to use the word "free-fall," but...


Could you expand on the Iowa ASW comment?



Sure Bentley, I'll do my best.

I was all set to go until I attended the AS thing last spring. Beyond just the general vibe of defeatism that hung over the proceedings. I will say that they spent an inordinate amount of time during the presentations defending/talking about the precipitous drop in application numbers (now I see why). I am all for frankness, but -seriously- if it is so bad that you feel you have to spend considerable time talking about it, it certainly doesn't give you the warm fuzzies as an applicant. While it is commendable to cut class size instead of dropping LSAT or GPA numbers, I got the feeling that they won't even be able keep that up much longer.

Add to that the drop in tuition and yesterday's bombshell in the Des Moines Register |--LinkRemoved-- | about them pushing the Iowa State Supreme Court to waive the Bar exam requirement for students that graduate from U of Iowa and Drake University, and it gives me the impression of desperation (at the minimum) and very possibly even total free-fall. Again, just what my gut is telling me.


I received very close to a full ride and was quite surprised at first, but this has me worried somewhat. How should an applicant interpret this? I don't really care if I'm in a class of four hundred that all have 170+ and 3.8+ stats if I can't get a job. I really don't care if I'm in a class of 40 if 35 of us get biglaw or fedclerk. Obviously those two scenarios are hyperbolic, but you get my point. So what I'm really interested in is how will these numbers impact outcomes. Do you think this will negatively impact employment for Iowa grads, or less graduates for same number of jobs means better outcomes overall?

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Fianna13
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby Fianna13 » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:22 pm

dat drop for Columbia & Berkeley....

Creditisgood
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby Creditisgood » Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:44 pm

Due to a decline in birth rate, starting this year and for several years the number of high school graduates will dip. This trend will affect the LS application volume in 4 years.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby SparkyZZZ » Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:58 pm

Bentley, I guess my feeling is that if Iowa's ranking drops, then job prospects outside of Iowa will definitely take a hit. In the state of Iowa, I also think that Drake might gain a little ground if Iowa drops to a more mediocre level (Drake definitely has some things going for it: in the state capital/largest city in the state, WAY nicer facilities).

Now mid-30s is still a good school, but it's not going to open too many doors unless you are in the upper echelons of your class.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby jthomas.7489 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 2:43 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote:Bentley, I guess my feeling is that if Iowa's ranking drops, then job prospects outside of Iowa will definitely take a hit. In the state of Iowa, I also think that Drake might gain a little ground if Iowa drops to a more mediocre level (Drake definitely has some things going for it: in the state capital/largest city in the state, WAY nicer facilities).


I have a hard time seeing Drake making up much ground. Drake's numbers are down too, in terms of both students (although not as dramatic) and stats--the 25 percent LSAT is apparently a 149 this year. Being located in Des Moines may provide an advantage in terms of smaller firms, but I doubt the larger firms in Des Moines care that Iowa is in Iowa City. Plus, the combined population of Iowa City, the Quad Cities, and Cedar Rapids I believe is larger than Des Moines, and they are all located within 50 minutes of Iowa, making up some of Drake's location advantage. I am a current student at Iowa, so maybe I am a little biased.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby SparkyZZZ » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:14 pm

Well, Des Moines combined with Ames is pretty close to the HUGE amalgamation of MSAs you have there :)

Regardless, it's not like Iowa is exactly loaded with large firms.

I don't see Drake overtaking Iowa by any means, but If Iowa drops precipitously and Drake can stay relatively the same, then, logically, they will gain a little ground - emphasis on "little."

Anyway, the best thing U of Iowa can do is level that building! Seriously, with all that Big10 money, you all need to invest in new facilities. You have great students and professors; you deserve better.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby yossarian » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:30 pm

Creditisgood wrote:Due to a decline in birth rate, starting this year and for several years the number of high school graduates will dip. This trend will affect the LS application volume in 4 years.


I'm not sure if the reasoning here is logical. The number of high school grads will decrease, but that doesn't mean the yearly BA/BS flood should decrease. Interested to see though. With flyover states pushing technical education, maybe the college crowd will take a hit.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby jthomas.7489 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:31 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote: Anyway, the best thing U of Iowa can do is level that building! Seriously, with all that Big10 money, you all need to invest in new facilities. You have great students and professors; you deserve better.


Definitely agree there. Too bad they didn't build the building on low ground so that the flood would have destroyed it. The amount of construction on campus is amazing right now, as they are replacing flood damaged buildings. On the other hand, there is something to be said for lowering tuition (as Iowa has done) rather than building a new law school (like American).

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby BentleyLittle » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:44 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote:Bentley, I guess my feeling is that if Iowa's ranking drops, then job prospects outside of Iowa will definitely take a hit. In the state of Iowa, I also think that Drake might gain a little ground if Iowa drops to a more mediocre level (Drake definitely has some things going for it: in the state capital/largest city in the state, WAY nicer facilities).

Now mid-30s is still a good school, but it's not going to open too many doors unless you are in the upper echelons of your class.


Yeah that's what I was thinking. Anecdotes dotes like yours and the "is UMN depressing thread" definitely make me reconsider those to schools. Hopefully my cycle won't come down to that choice!

Thanks for your insight.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby ManoftheHour » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:48 pm

Awesome thread, bro.

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ManoftheHour
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby ManoftheHour » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:53 pm

Blumpbeef wrote:
2014 wrote:Have no idea why BC and BUs drops were so wildly different. I can't see any circumstance where one would apply to one of them but not the other and yet hundreds of people in theory decided to app to BC but not BU.

GULC should have dropped more, what a shame :(


During my cycle, BC gave me a fee waiver when I requested and BU didn't. It could all come down to that.


This. I received an app fee from BU in BOTH my email AND physical mail this cycle. Maybe they learned their lesson.

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yossarian
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby yossarian » Thu Jan 16, 2014 3:59 pm

SparkyZZZ wrote:Bentley, I guess my feeling is that if Iowa's ranking drops, then job prospects outside of Iowa will definitely take a hit. In the state of Iowa, I also think that Drake might gain a little ground if Iowa drops to a more mediocre level (Drake definitely has some things going for it: in the state capital/largest city in the state, WAY nicer facilities).

Now mid-30s is still a good school, but it's not going to open too many doors unless you are in the upper echelons of your class.


I'm curious about this. Except for a few private schools (Vandy, WUSTL, and ND), isn't the general consensus that T20-30 is still hyper regional? Will Iowa's prospects really look that different if ranked in the mid-30s?

Would a school like IUB? They are already very regional and with great Chicago schools, that region is basically Indiana and Kentucky. My inclination is to say that IU's reach is no different now at 25 than it was at 23 and not all that different from when it was 28 several years back. I'm not sure it would be that different at 30, 35, or 40. (OSU Moritz for instance is t50, but my understanding is they do about as well in OH as IUB does in IN.

Now, there's something to be said for a school that has other issues, but rankings and medians I doubt will affect 95% of the placement. Perhaps the ~5 students that go to v100 from IU would drop to 1-2?

I really don't have data or authority though. Curious to others' thoughts (especially as I'm currently debating going to IUB).

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby jthomas.7489 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 4:24 pm

yossarian71 wrote:
I'm curious about this. Except for a few private schools (Vandy, WUSTL, and ND), isn't the general consensus that T20-30 is still hyper regional? Will Iowa's prospects really look that different if ranked in the mid-30s?

Would a school like IUB? They are already very regional and with great Chicago schools, that region is basically Indiana and Kentucky. My inclination is to say that IU's reach is no different now at 25 than it was at 23 and not all that different from when it was 28 several years back. I'm not sure it would be that different at 30, 35, or 40. (OSU Moritz for instance is t50, but my understanding is they do about as well in OH as IUB does in IN.

I really don't have data or authority though. Curious to others' thoughts (especially as I'm currently debating going to IUB).


The vibe that I have gotten at Iowa is that there are a number of firms that plan on hiring a certain number of grads per year, or will primarily look to Iowa grads when they hire (some of the 20-30 attorney firms in Des Moines, for example), so I doubt Iowa's exact rank matters that much as long as it doesn't fall too much. That is just what has seemed to happen to my close group of friends, though, and their situations may be exceptions. You do have to have good grades to get these positions. My friends that are unhappy were primarily those that hoped to get a six figure salary outside of the Midwest, and do not have top grades. That is not going to change regardless if Iowa/Indiana/etc. moves up or down 10 places.

I think it is a bit early to speculate what Iowa's rank will be a few years from now. The school has shown that it doesn't want to decrease quality, and I don't think most firms will care if there are 100 or 200 students. Plus, things are so volatile across the board as far as admissions. I thought Iowa's rank would go down when I entered law school, since its LSAT score was considerably less than peer schools, but it has gone up. Who knew that some of those schools were lying about their numbers?

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby lawschool22 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 4:36 pm

yossarian71 wrote:
SparkyZZZ wrote:Bentley, I guess my feeling is that if Iowa's ranking drops, then job prospects outside of Iowa will definitely take a hit. In the state of Iowa, I also think that Drake might gain a little ground if Iowa drops to a more mediocre level (Drake definitely has some things going for it: in the state capital/largest city in the state, WAY nicer facilities).

Now mid-30s is still a good school, but it's not going to open too many doors unless you are in the upper echelons of your class.


I'm curious about this. Except for a few private schools (Vandy, WUSTL, and ND), isn't the general consensus that T20-30 is still hyper regional? Will Iowa's prospects really look that different if ranked in the mid-30s?

Would a school like IUB? They are already very regional and with great Chicago schools, that region is basically Indiana and Kentucky. My inclination is to say that IU's reach is no different now at 25 than it was at 23 and not all that different from when it was 28 several years back. I'm not sure it would be that different at 30, 35, or 40. (OSU Moritz for instance is t50, but my understanding is they do about as well in OH as IUB does in IN.

Now, there's something to be said for a school that has other issues, but rankings and medians I doubt will affect 95% of the placement. Perhaps the ~5 students that go to v100 from IU would drop to 1-2?

I really don't have data or authority though. Curious to others' thoughts (especially as I'm currently debating going to IUB).


This is spot on. I can speak to your example, as OSU Moritz dominates Ohio, and yet is ranked lower than many other schools in the midwest region. For T1 regionals, rank is almost meaningless. The best school in the region is going to place better in that region than some other better-ranked regional in a different region, even if that other regional is 30 spots higher.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby Lebrarian_Booker » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:14 pm

NYstate wrote:Schools game this system by giving out fee waivers to increase applications -which also improves their yield. Doesn't Harvard also send out emails to people encouraging them to apply? Maybe Columbia does this too. I don't remember its been too long.

Alabama gave out free itunes cards to applicants the past couple of years, so people applied just to get a free card.

Didn't Iowa have some bad press a year or two ago? Again, I vaguely remember.

Basically, if there is a statistic that can be gamed by law school admission officers, it will be.



Actually, it deflates their yield. If you think about it, those kids who really really want to go to school X will apply without a fee waiver. Then those who seriously are considering it still apply without a fee waiver. Once you give out a fee waiver, the "extra" apps that you're generating are largely from those who are uninterested in attending your school, and therefore will matriculate at a much lower rate than those who would have applied with or without a fee waiver.

Giving a fee waiver increases the volume of uninterested applicants you get, and therefore decreases yields, although it could conceivably decrease acceptance rate if you target the fee waiver at those who are not qualified for admission.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:17 pm

Lebrarian_Booker wrote:
NYstate wrote:Schools game this system by giving out fee waivers to increase applications -which also improves their yield. Doesn't Harvard also send out emails to people encouraging them to apply? Maybe Columbia does this too. I don't remember its been too long.

Alabama gave out free itunes cards to applicants the past couple of years, so people applied just to get a free card.

Didn't Iowa have some bad press a year or two ago? Again, I vaguely remember.

Basically, if there is a statistic that can be gamed by law school admission officers, it will be.



Actually, it deflates their yield. If you think about it, those kids who really really want to go to school X will apply without a fee waiver. Then those who seriously are considering it still apply without a fee waiver. Once you give out a fee waiver, the "extra" apps that you're generating are largely from those who are uninterested in attending your school, and therefore will matriculate at a much lower rate than those who would have applied with or without a fee waiver.

Giving a fee waiver increases the volume of uninterested applicants you get, and therefore decreases yields, although it could conceivably decrease acceptance rate if you target the fee waiver at those who are not qualified for admission.


it deflates yield but inflates selectivity, which is the USNWR metric. Yield is just a component of selectivity.

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lawschool22
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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby lawschool22 » Thu Jan 16, 2014 5:20 pm

Lebrarian_Booker wrote:
NYstate wrote:Schools game this system by giving out fee waivers to increase applications -which also improves their yield. Doesn't Harvard also send out emails to people encouraging them to apply? Maybe Columbia does this too. I don't remember its been too long.

Alabama gave out free itunes cards to applicants the past couple of years, so people applied just to get a free card.

Didn't Iowa have some bad press a year or two ago? Again, I vaguely remember.

Basically, if there is a statistic that can be gamed by law school admission officers, it will be.



Actually, it deflates their yield. If you think about it, those kids who really really want to go to school X will apply without a fee waiver. Then those who seriously are considering it still apply without a fee waiver. Once you give out a fee waiver, the "extra" apps that you're generating are largely from those who are uninterested in attending your school, and therefore will matriculate at a much lower rate than those who would have applied with or without a fee waiver.

Giving a fee waiver increases the volume of uninterested applicants you get, and therefore decreases yields, although it could conceivably decrease acceptance rate if you target the fee waiver at those who are not qualified for admission.


You don't have to accept the "uninterested" people you give fee waivers to, so it doesn't automatically decrease yield. They ultimately control which and how many applicants they accept. Sure, there may be some slight hit to yield because you may get a few more "uninterested" people, but my guess is the benefits of increased selectivity outweigh this risk. There's always the waitlist they can use to gauge interest.

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Re: Change in Applicant Volume & 509 Reports for Top 50 Schools

Postby SPerez » Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:30 pm

jthomas.7489 wrote:The vibe that I have gotten at Iowa is that there are a number of firms that plan on hiring a certain number of grads per year, or will primarily look to Iowa grads when they hire (some of the 20-30 attorney firms in Des Moines, for example), so I doubt Iowa's exact rank matters that much as long as it doesn't fall too much. That is just what has seemed to happen to my close group of friends, though, and their situations may be exceptions. You do have to have good grades to get these positions. My friends that are unhappy were primarily those that hoped to get a six figure salary outside of the Midwest, and do not have top grades. That is not going to change regardless if Iowa/Indiana/etc. moves up or down 10 places.

I think it is a bit early to speculate what Iowa's rank will be a few years from now. The school has shown that it doesn't want to decrease quality, and I don't think most firms will care if there are 100 or 200 students. Plus, things are so volatile across the board as far as admissions. I thought Iowa's rank would go down when I entered law school, since its LSAT score was considerably less than peer schools, but it has gone up. Who knew that some of those schools were lying about their numbers?


This sort of gets at something I find fascinating (and a little disappointing). No one is talking about the actual education at Iowa decreasing in quality. The faculty, programs, clinics, student body, etc. are all the same as last year. The quality of the students this year is more or less the same as the classes before them. Is the sole fact that fewer students chose to attend there - a measure of what? popularity? general "attractiveness"? - enough to warrant a lower ranking? If the decrease in applicants (arguably also not a signal of much more than general popularity), something everyone seems to agree is influenced by "gaming" and therefore not a stat to be trusted, then that can't be a reason, either.

Dean Perez




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