This Cycle: Prognostications

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Beercules
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This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby Beercules » Tue Oct 29, 2013 8:59 am

So the medians for most schools for the class of 2016 are out, and we have that little tidbit from Professor Campos about the drop in October LSAT takers. What are your thoughts about this cycle? Will the medians drop again? are the Law School Numbers charts from last cycle pretty indicative of how this one will turn out? What say you?

linkx13
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby linkx13 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:46 am

I am most interested in the data from LSAC about scores and the number of takers. When is that typically released?

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jk148706
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby jk148706 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 9:52 am

I'm very interested in this as well. Will this cycle be even better for us ?

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midwest17
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby midwest17 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:12 am

Beercules wrote:So the medians for most schools for the class of 2016 are out, and we have that little tidbit from Professor Campos about the drop in October LSAT takers. What are your thoughts about this cycle? Will the medians drop again? are the Law School Numbers charts from last cycle pretty indicative of how this one will turn out? What say you?


Personally, I'm waiting for real data on the number of takers before I make any predictions.

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jk148706
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby jk148706 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:19 am

midwest17 wrote:
Beercules wrote:So the medians for most schools for the class of 2016 are out, and we have that little tidbit from Professor Campos about the drop in October LSAT takers. What are your thoughts about this cycle? Will the medians drop again? are the Law School Numbers charts from last cycle pretty indicative of how this one will turn out? What say you?


Personally, I'm waiting for real data on the number of takers before I make any predictions.


Spivey said today it was a 10percent drop

linkx13
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby linkx13 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:53 am

jk148706 wrote:
midwest17 wrote:
Beercules wrote:So the medians for most schools for the class of 2016 are out, and we have that little tidbit from Professor Campos about the drop in October LSAT takers. What are your thoughts about this cycle? Will the medians drop again? are the Law School Numbers charts from last cycle pretty indicative of how this one will turn out? What say you?


Personally, I'm waiting for real data on the number of takers before I make any predictions.


Spivey said today it was a 10percent drop


Where did he get the info? Does he have some in at LSAC?

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midwest17
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby midwest17 » Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:58 am

jk148706 wrote:
midwest17 wrote:
Beercules wrote:So the medians for most schools for the class of 2016 are out, and we have that little tidbit from Professor Campos about the drop in October LSAT takers. What are your thoughts about this cycle? Will the medians drop again? are the Law School Numbers charts from last cycle pretty indicative of how this one will turn out? What say you?


Personally, I'm waiting for real data on the number of takers before I make any predictions.


Spivey said today it was a 10percent drop


So now we've heard 13% and 10%. I trust Spivey more than Campos, but I'm still waiting for real numbers.

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Beercules
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby Beercules » Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:01 pm

Not much of a difference between 10% and 13%. We know there's a drop in takers, somewhere in that ballpark. We saw a few schools this past cycle unable to hold their medians with a drop in applicants. Have to figure either a) some serious money is going to get thrown around and/or b) Medians fall again. Just can't see schools dropping class sizes dramatically without cutting costs in some drastic way.

dj_roomba
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby dj_roomba » Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:18 pm

I predict drop in medians for the next 2-3 years at the very least.
The legal economy is not recovering any time soon. It's stagnant or getting worse. It's all over the news and lay people are aware of it now.
In fact, I think more people are educated about the dismal prospects of a legal degree now than years before and the effects (lower demand in legal education) are just STARTING to peak. Demand for legal education will not rise until the legal economy sees at least SOME good news (which is severely lacking right now), and even then, it will take some time before people are aware of this.

Another factor -> lowering medians + scholarships for lower numbers might mean higher demand. I imagine lots of people will be saying "yeah the legal market sucks but I hear you can get a good scholly at a top school with a lower GPA", and thus rationalizing their choice.

It's obviously much more complicated than that. Either way, medians will be lower this cycle and the next. I'm 99% sure.
That's my prediction at least

Paul Campos
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby Paul Campos » Thu Oct 31, 2013 7:56 am

LSAC has released the official numbers for the October test to law schools. Total test takers were down 10.9% year over year, and first-time takers were down 13%.

The combined June and October numbers project to a total of 103K test takers this cycle (down from 112.5K last year and 171.5K four years ago).

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nothingtosee
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Re: This Cycle: Prognostications

Postby nothingtosee » Thu Oct 31, 2013 8:53 am

Paul Campos wrote:LSAC has released the official numbers for the October test to law schools. Total test takers were down 10.9% year over year, and first-time takers were down 13%.

The combined June and October numbers project to a total of 103K test takers this cycle (down from 112.5K last year and 171.5K four years ago).


Is there a rule of thumb for converting test takers to applicants?




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