Loan default rates

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jk148706
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Loan default rates

Postby jk148706 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:18 pm

Are loan default rates for each school posted on LST or anywhere else online?

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sinfiery
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby sinfiery » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:27 pm

No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:39 am

sinfiery wrote:No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.


I find it hard to believe that the extent of loan defaults is limited to Cooley.

Just taking a gander at the legal job postings out there for recent graduates makes it hard to believe even 50% of JD's find jobs as lawyers. I recently got a job with pay at the very low end of the pay scale, but I can count on one hand the combined number of job postings for attorneys with 0 years of experience right now in two major metropolitan areas. Now, maybe 10% of all law grads find something out of OCI, and maybe another 3-5% find jobs with firms they clerked at during law school or family connections...but I find it hard to believe that the 85% of law grads that don't fall into one of the above categories are actually finding places to work.

I wouldn't be surprised if upwards of 60% of law grads that didn't have their parents pay for law school are either a) on unemployment deferment, or b) on a PAYE or IBR plan where your payments are less than the amount of interest accruing. Only 55% of students get full-time lawyer jobs, and that's after law schools juice the numbers. I'd be willing to bet close to a third of these 55% are making so little that their PAYE payments are not enough to pay for accruing interest.

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jk148706
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby jk148706 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:36 am

JCougar wrote:
sinfiery wrote:No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.


Only 55% of students get full-time lawyer jobs, and that's after law schools juice the numbers.


I'm interested to hear how law schools juice the numbers.

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:53 pm

jk148706 wrote:
JCougar wrote:
sinfiery wrote:No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.


Only 55% of students get full-time lawyer jobs, and that's after law schools juice the numbers.


I'm interested to hear how law schools juice the numbers.


Such as lying and calling a temp job a long-term, full time job, like calling volunteer jobs funded by a school fellowship a long-term, full-time job, etc.

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jingosaur
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby jingosaur » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:10 pm

JCougar wrote:
jk148706 wrote:
JCougar wrote:
sinfiery wrote:No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.


Only 55% of students get full-time lawyer jobs, and that's after law schools juice the numbers.


I'm interested to hear how law schools juice the numbers.


Such as lying and calling a temp job a long-term, full time job, like calling volunteer jobs funded by a school fellowship a long-term, full-time job, etc.


Don't forget how a JD is advantageous to a job a Starbucks.

Edited so I don't misquote.
Last edited by jingosaur on Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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jk148706
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby jk148706 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:22 pm

JCougar wrote:
jk148706 wrote:
JCougar wrote:
sinfiery wrote:No, but graduate students, on avergae, have significantly lower rates of defaulting on student loans than any other category mentioned here

I do wish this information would be made public to the American people. We need people with pitchforks outside Cooley.


Only 55% of students get full-time lawyer jobs, and that's after law schools juice the numbers.


I'm interested to hear how law schools juice the numbers.


Such as lying and calling a temp job a long-term, full time job, like calling volunteer jobs funded by a school fellowship a long-term, full-time job, etc.


So are those "juiced" numbers what appear on LST?

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prezidentv8
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby prezidentv8 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:25 pm

IS THIS REAL LIFE

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:23 pm

jk148706 wrote:So are those "juiced" numbers what appear on LST?


LST has done a lot of work in de-juicing the law school employment numbers, but in the end, these numbers come from the law schools themselves, and there's little stopping them from simply lying outright. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that about 75% of all newly minted JD's nationally are in default, unemployment deferment, or not even making big enough payments on their loans to cover accrued interest.

If people think I'm being hyperbolic, try using any job search engine out there and search for "Entry-Level Associate" in a major legal market like Chicago. You'll come up with like five hits total in the last two months, with 4 of the five being 3-attorney family law firms in the suburbs that pay $40K/year at most. Given that there's thousands of grads that just passed the Illinois bar...you do the math.

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sinfiery
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby sinfiery » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:07 pm

I'm not sure why you are clumping the categories. Roughly 8% are in default, potentially less as those numbers come from 2008, 2009, and 2010 I believe.

Would roughly 70% of newly minted graduates be either in unemployment deferment or on PAYE? I mean, I guess that is essentially what you are arguing. That's one scary bubble come ~20 years from now.

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:15 am

sinfiery wrote:I'm not sure why you are clumping the categories. Roughly 8% are in default, potentially less as those numbers come from 2008, 2009, and 2010 I believe.

Would roughly 70% of newly minted graduates be either in unemployment deferment or on PAYE? I mean, I guess that is essentially what you are arguing. That's one scary bubble come ~20 years from now.


Well, you also get 3 years of unemployment deferments, plus a 6-month grace period after you graduate. So c/o 2009 didn't even enter repayment until November, 2009, and then they get until November 2012 to defer payments because of unemployment. So unless the 8% rate you're talking about is a very recent figure, it's not going to measure the default rate very well ITE.

By three years out, though, a lot of those unemployed have basically resigned themselves to being bartenders or, if they were lucky, returned to their pre-law school career. Neither of which would likely pay off the accruing interest of paying sticker for law school.

Out of the handful of people I know that went to TTTs, one is now a bartender, one did doc review on and off for a year and a half before going back to his previous low-paying career, and another eventually found a $40K/year job at a shitlaw firm a year and a half after graduating (while he accrued over $20K in interest on his school loans).

I guarantee none of these people are making big enough payments on their loans to pay off the interest.

I mean, I can sometimes be a doom and gloom poster on here, but after graduating, I found out that the job market is even worse than what I expected. I know so many people screwed over by this dysfunctional pyramid scheme that is the legal education industry, I've lost count. Graduates ranging from TTTs to the bottom half of the T14.

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Hipster but Athletic
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:52 am

They're measured two years after graduation.

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Hipster but Athletic
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:55 am

JCougar wrote:
jk148706 wrote:So are those "juiced" numbers what appear on LST?


LST has done a lot of work in de-juicing the law school employment numbers, but in the end, these numbers come from the law schools themselves, and there's little stopping them from simply lying outright. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that about 75% of all newly minted JD's nationally are in default, unemployment deferment, or not even making big enough payments on their loans to cover accrued interest.

If people think I'm being hyperbolic, try using any job search engine out there and search for "Entry-Level Associate" in a major legal market like Chicago. You'll come up with like five hits total in the last two months, with 4 of the five being 3-attorney family law firms in the suburbs that pay $40K/year at most. Given that there's thousands of grads that just passed the Illinois bar...you do the math.

And are you serious? Please also prove to me that medical schools are lying based on such awesome data as number of med school grads and Monster.com listings.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:00 am

Hipster but Athletic wrote:And are you serious? Please also prove to me that medical schools are lying based on such awesome data as number of med school grads and Monster.com listings.


Medical schools don't have a proven track record of being dishonest about placement statistics. Law schools have quite the opposite. They have to...nobody in their right mind would attend at the price they are charging if they knew the truth. If you don't think for a minute they're being generous when they determine which jobs are "JD required" or "JD advantage," or which jobs are actually "long-term," you, my son, are naive.
Last edited by JCougar on Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:01 am

JCougar wrote:
Hipster but Athletic wrote:And are you serious? Please also prove to me that medical schools are lying based on such awesome data as number of med school grads and Monster.com listings.


Medical schools don't have a proven track record of being dishonest about placement statistics. Law schools have quite the opposite. If you don't think for a minute they're being generous when they determine which jobs are "JD required" or "JD advantage," or which jobs are actually "long-term," you, my son, are naive.

I recognize I am naive, condescending patriarch guy. Please get me Monster.com data to verify what we already know: med schools are honest; law schools are not.

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:04 am

Hipster but Athletic wrote:I recognize I am naive, condescending patriarch guy. Please get me Monster.com data to verify what we already know: med schools are honest; law schools are not.


You don't need monster.com data to prove that. You just need to have been paying attention for the last three years. If you're actually trying to debate me on this fact that is now widespread public knowledge, I recommend a career other than law.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:07 am

JCougar wrote:
Hipster but Athletic wrote:I recognize I am naive, condescending patriarch guy. Please get me Monster.com data to verify what we already know: med schools are honest; law schools are not.


You don't need monster.com data to prove that. You just need to have been paying attention for the last three years. If you're actually trying to debate me on this fact that is now widespread public knowledge, I recommend a career other than law.

I know I don't need it, and I admit, I have not been paying attention. But since you cited it as being relevant data, could you please provide it for med school as well?

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:10 am

Hipster but Athletic wrote:I know I don't need it, and I admit, I have not been paying attention. But since you cited it as being relevant data, could you please provide it for med school as well?


You don't need to cite things that are well-known public fact.

I'm guessing you are an 0L. You're thinking about law school because you "like arguing." Well, I have news for you, son. You apparently don't know anything about it.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:13 am

But just for the hell of it, here's a link to an Indeed search (an aggregator of all job websites) for "Entry Level Attorney" in the Chicago area:

http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=entry+leve ... cago%2C+IL

Notice that you get only 21 results, and 75% of them are for paralegals or legal support staff. And the ones that aren't pay about $50K or less. I don't know how many thousand people just passed the Illinois bar, but the ones that didn't get Biglaw from OCI are all competing for these 4-5 jobs.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:08 am

JCougar wrote:But just for the hell of it, here's a link to an Indeed search (an aggregator of all job websites) for "Entry Level Attorney" in the Chicago area:

http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=entry+leve ... cago%2C+IL

Notice that you get only 21 results, and 75% of them are for paralegals or legal support staff. And the ones that aren't pay about $50K or less. I don't know how many thousand people just passed the Illinois bar, but the ones that didn't get Biglaw from OCI are all competing for these 4-5 jobs.

I get that it's a desolate market. I'm curious how bad it is for medical school grads? Please do an analogous search.

Edit: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=doctor&l=Chicago%2C+IL
23 results. 13 looking for administrator types...
only 10 positions in Chicago looking for medical doctors. Pretty sad state of affairs for med school students.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby cahwc12 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 8:30 am

Hipster but Athletic wrote:
JCougar wrote:But just for the hell of it, here's a link to an Indeed search (an aggregator of all job websites) for "Entry Level Attorney" in the Chicago area:

http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=entry+leve ... cago%2C+IL

Notice that you get only 21 results, and 75% of them are for paralegals or legal support staff. And the ones that aren't pay about $50K or less. I don't know how many thousand people just passed the Illinois bar, but the ones that didn't get Biglaw from OCI are all competing for these 4-5 jobs.

I get that it's a desolate market. I'm curious how bad it is for medical school grads? Please do an analogous search.

Edit: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=doctor&l=Chicago%2C+IL
23 results. 13 looking for administrator types...
only 10 positions in Chicago looking for medical doctors. Pretty sad state of affairs for med school students.


Nearly all med school graduates have jobs. The reason med school is so much more competitive than law school is because unlike law school, they only graduate a number of MDs comparable to the number of positions available.

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UVAIce
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby UVAIce » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:33 am

You mean they haven't been graduating enough doctors for the amount of open positions - ever. The supply of doctors has been kept artificially low for a long time and that is why there is a predicted shortage of around 90,000 physicians in the near future. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/23/us/sh ... d=all&_r=0

But then I'm happy to not be an MD. The system we use to create freshly minted doctors is extremely broken in my opinion, certainly more broken than the law school system.

All in all, the biggest problem with a legal education is that the cost of attending law school at sticker is just too high given the job prospects. And even if you get the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, a well paying legal job, the payout isn't all that wonderful when you're making $2,500 monthly loan payments.

I'm going to work in a "smaller market" that has less than 20 SA spots in the entire city that pay a wage that makes law school a good investment. That is a problem when there are 3 law schools within an hours drive from the city that graduate around 700 law students a year. The competition for those 20 spots is going to be a lot more intense than MD positions at the local hospitals.

Tl;dr: Should have been an engineer.
Last edited by UVAIce on Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Loan default rates

Postby UVAIce » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:35 am

cahwc12 wrote:
Hipster but Athletic wrote:
JCougar wrote:But just for the hell of it, here's a link to an Indeed search (an aggregator of all job websites) for "Entry Level Attorney" in the Chicago area:

http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=entry+leve ... cago%2C+IL

Notice that you get only 21 results, and 75% of them are for paralegals or legal support staff. And the ones that aren't pay about $50K or less. I don't know how many thousand people just passed the Illinois bar, but the ones that didn't get Biglaw from OCI are all competing for these 4-5 jobs.

I get that it's a desolate market. I'm curious how bad it is for medical school grads? Please do an analogous search.

Edit: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=doctor&l=Chicago%2C+IL
23 results. 13 looking for administrator types...
only 10 positions in Chicago looking for medical doctors. Pretty sad state of affairs for med school students.


Nearly all med school graduates have jobs. The reason med school is so much more competitive than law school is because unlike law school, they only graduate a number of MDs comparable to the number of positions available.


But you have to admit that they are practically slaves to their occupation. Once you have one of those positions you can't stop being a doctor, unless you want to default on all those loans.

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JCougar
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby JCougar » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:21 pm

Hipster but Athletic wrote:I get that it's a desolate market. I'm curious how bad it is for medical school grads? Please do an analogous search.

Edit: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=doctor&l=Chicago%2C+IL
23 results. 13 looking for administrator types...
only 10 positions in Chicago looking for medical doctors. Pretty sad state of affairs for med school students.


Listen, I know you're new at this thing called "life," but MD's don't get their jobs through job search sites. They get their positions through placements. There's actually a shortage of MD's out there, so it's very easy to get a job. It's not always easy, because you still have a lot of debt and you work pretty long hours, but the bottom line is that you go to school doing what you intended on doing when you graduate.

Lawyers have a similar thing called OCI, but it only places about 10% of the students into jobs. The rest are left to scratch and claw their way into the profession where there's at least two graduates for every one available job working for people like Peter Francis Geraci for $42,000/year.

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Hipster but Athletic
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Re: Loan default rates

Postby Hipster but Athletic » Fri Oct 04, 2013 5:39 pm

JCougar wrote:
Hipster but Athletic wrote:I get that it's a desolate market. I'm curious how bad it is for medical school grads? Please do an analogous search.

Edit: http://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=doctor&l=Chicago%2C+IL
23 results. 13 looking for administrator types...
only 10 positions in Chicago looking for medical doctors. Pretty sad state of affairs for med school students.


Listen, I know you're new at this thing called "life," but MD's don't get their jobs through job search sites. They get their positions through placements. There's actually a shortage of MD's out there, so it's very easy to get a job. It's not always easy, because you still have a lot of debt and you work pretty long hours, but the bottom line is that you go to school doing what you intended on doing when you graduate.

Lawyers have a similar thing called OCI, but it only places about 10% of the students into jobs. The rest are left to scratch and claw their way into the profession where there's at least two graduates for every one available job working for people like Peter Francis Geraci for $42,000/year.

Boggles my mind that you're able to recognize that doctors do not use Indeed.com, but still think the analaous data is probative in the JD market

Edit to add that I have no idea why you think I'm trying to suggest that the JD market is not bad. Just was to trying to point put the absurdity of your method of demonstrating that. Also I know you're old, but try to avoid being so patronizing -- at least until you can learn the concept of a control group




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