Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

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gmail
Posts: 1012
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2007 9:41 pm

Postby gmail » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:15 pm

I applied to 5 schools and based on my 'record' (ignoring 'chances'):

7.41%
28%
35%
50%
71.43%

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palm23
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Postby palm23 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:16 pm

Another question: Is the data just from last cycle, or the last few cycles?


All 5 cycles.

Also, I promise to divulge the algorithm once I fix it. I realize the many, many flaws with it, and I will try to perfect and then divulge it so that people will know about it. When it is done, it will probably do all sorts of things, including giving more weight to recent applicants and such.

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waytofailself
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Postby waytofailself » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:18 pm

f he uses data points from all of the cycles, the report may be a bit too optimistic. Look at NYU's accepts from the earliest cycle and the latest cycle:


This is true, though I am not applying to a school of the caliber of NYU. I assume that admissions have gotten tougher for many schools are the years have gone on, but the ones I checked on LSN have stayed relatively consistent (except for some like UNC which have gone down...and the site doesn't take into account that I'm an NC resident).

Hey, if it's a site that'll make me feel a bit better about my chances, I'll take it. I'm tired of freaking out :P

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Haribo
Posts: 193
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Postby Haribo » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:20 pm

Sigh:

Code: Select all

Yale University       72.04%   0%     0 - 3   
Stanford University   81.95%   0%     0 - 5   
Harvard University    89.32%   100%   6 - 0   
Columbia University   95.58%   100%   8 - 0


Chance is off, obviously, but my numbers are looking good for Harvard and below and not so good for YS. Funny how that works :(

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waytofailself
Posts: 120
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Postby waytofailself » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:20 pm

Also, I promise to divulge the algorithm once I fix it. I realize the many, many flaws with it, and I will try to perfect and then divulge it so that people will know about it. When it is done, it will probably do all sorts of things, including giving more weight to recent applicants and such.


That's awesome, and I'm sure some other people may have ideas to improve it further as well (I'm not a math wiz or anything, I just like to see how the numbers got there).

Very impressive site.

zeezoo
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:58 pm

Postby zeezoo » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:20 pm

please please delete the chances column. it is highly misleading.

My UVA, Duke and Georgetown all have chances below 75%, even though the record column is 100% for all 3!!!

otherwise the site is great, and I have wondered why no one has been using the LSN data. I have used it in a bunch of my own excel spreadsheets.

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Kompressor
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jun 28, 2007 10:51 am

Postby Kompressor » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:23 pm

I like how my chances for BU are 24%, yet 77% of the people with my numbers last year got in. Not really sure how that works.

Yes, other than the chances column, seems great if reliable.
Last edited by Kompressor on Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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iwasgoingtobeasenator
Posts: 101
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:14 pm

Postby iwasgoingtobeasenator » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:25 pm

Yeah I'm a lock at Cooley!

However, Georgetown says I'm a 19 percent chance, despite the fact that only 3 % of people were rejected with better stats, and the similar stats "record" was 72%

Me thinks its a bit skewed.

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iwasgoingtobeasenator
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Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:14 pm

Postby iwasgoingtobeasenator » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:27 pm

Chance is off, obviously, but my numbers are looking good for Harvard and below and not so good for YS. Funny how that works


Sorry Malena, Stanford doesn't like your kind. 180s... they find them to be flashy... gaudy if you will.

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Haribo
Posts: 193
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Postby Haribo » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:30 pm

I dropped it down to 178 to get a bigger sample and Stanford was still 0-12. Makes me wonder if it's even worth applying :/ All this emphasis on "GPA" and "grades" and "success in college" - lame!

zeezoo
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:58 pm

Postby zeezoo » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:35 pm

Do you weigh the more recent years higher?

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Splitt3r
Posts: 213
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2007 2:37 pm

Postby Splitt3r » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:35 pm

Do you weigh the more recent years higher?


He said in a previous post that it doesn't give more weight to more recent years now, but that he'll probably adjust the algorithm to do that in the future.

For everyone saying that the calculator is not very accurate, remember that this is an early version and it's still being worked on. It's good to give feedback on how the numbers are off for you, but saying things like "this sucks" and "take X part off because it doesn't work" isn't really productive.

For me, I think the chances column is overly optimistic, as it gives me over a 50% chance at everyone outside of HYS with a 177/3.5. This doesn't seem right to me, especially for say, Berkeley.

zeezoo
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:58 pm

Postby zeezoo » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:37 pm

I don't think anything will ever accurately predict Berkeley though...

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awesomerossum
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Postby awesomerossum » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:38 pm

...or Stanford, for that matter.

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brokendowncar
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Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:54 pm

Postby brokendowncar » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:19 pm

or Yale...

Unstoppable
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Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:56 pm

Postby Unstoppable » Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:46 pm

Hmm the chances % seem good for me, but my record is 0-0 everywhere.

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brokendowncar
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:54 pm

Postby brokendowncar » Fri Jan 04, 2008 5:53 pm

I dropped it down to 178 to get a bigger sample

It's lonely at the top, huh? :lol:

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girasol
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2007 2:31 pm

Postby girasol » Fri Jan 04, 2008 11:43 pm

If 30 out of 39 people with my numbers are in at Columbia, how do I have a 30% chance? The site is a fabulous idea, but this 'chances' thing needs to be fixed or explained before you give some pathetic kid a heart attack.

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underdawg
Posts: 1131
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:15 am

Postby underdawg » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:01 am

Well if I have a 77% chance at Yale....well!

But then I bet most of those people cured cancer as well as gotten the same numbers as me... :(

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ImACuckoo
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:47 am

Postby ImACuckoo » Sat Jan 05, 2008 12:21 am

As some people have already stated, I'm skeptical of the chances calculation. I've already been accepted to a school where I have around a 22% chance to get in. Also, I doubt BYU is as difficult to get into as WUSTL. My percentages seem to indicate that they are roughly comparable.

Hitachi
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Jul 23, 2007 4:38 pm

Postby Hitachi » Sat Jan 05, 2008 1:53 am

The chances are certainly off, but why do you doubt that for BYU and WUSTL? WUSTL has 165, 3.45 medians, with a 28% acceptance rate. BYU has 164, 3.60 medians, with a 28% acceptance rate. Seems likely to be pretty similar to me.

18488
Posts: 174
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2006 1:57 am

Postby 18488 » Sun Jan 06, 2008 7:52 pm

1) what is a "depth algorith?"
2) what constitute "similar numbers?"

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underdawg
Posts: 1131
Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:15 am

Postby underdawg » Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:31 am

"depth algorith" = some al gore rhythm with data from previous years, I suppose, in some fancy data analysis

Trez
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 9:11 pm

Postby Trez » Mon Jan 07, 2008 1:14 am

This deserves a bump.

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JustDude
Posts: 354
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 10:07 pm

Postby JustDude » Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:04 pm

Malena: What Are your stats???




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