Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

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Mark71121
Posts: 132
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Law School admissions calculator

Postby Mark71121 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:16 am

These things are funny for splitters.

Chances at Northwestern: 5%

Record: 6-1 (85%)

MPaulE
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Nov 05, 2007 9:43 pm

Law School admissions calculator

Postby MPaulE » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:22 am

It's a great site. Good work. However, I do belive you still have not given enough weight to LSAT scores......

Do you use the index numbers at all in the alogorithm?

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palm23
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Postby palm23 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:27 am

I do, but even though I have the data in a separate table, I have not linked each school's index number to the algorithm (the only part that needs the index numbers it the "Chances" column.) Instead, I went off an estimate of Columbia's; it works out to 1 LSAT point = .08 GPA.

EMarie
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Postby EMarie » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:31 am

Someone needs to kick legal scholar off the site...i'm getting tired of their same post about admissions assistance

Da Stain
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Law School admissions calculator

Postby Da Stain » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:40 am

^^^^ Agreed. And I get warned for aweomer0ssum but this guy isn't banned. :roll:

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brokendowncar
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Postby brokendowncar » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:31 am

Well that site gives me much better chances than any other calculator I've seen, which seems to be the opposite of what everyone else has said. Weird, but I like it.

uclabruins
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Postby uclabruins » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:51 am

wow good site, thanks OP... but a lil depressing for me =(

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kevsocko
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Postby kevsocko » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:54 am

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Last edited by kevsocko on Thu Feb 21, 2008 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kevsocko
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Postby kevsocko » Fri Jan 04, 2008 2:57 am

what is the difference between "chances" and "record?" i think i'm retarded.....

Mark71121
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Postby Mark71121 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:03 am

"Chances" gives you the likelihood you will be admitted based on your numbers alone.

"Record" gives you the track record for those who applied with your numbers.

In other words, "chances" for a 2.3, 160 applicant to Yale might be 0.001%.

"Record" might be 2-0 (100%) if only 2 people with those numbers applied and they both miraculously got in because they were CEOs and Olympic gold medalists.

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M51
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Postby M51 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:05 am

I don't know what "chances" is.... but the "record" part looks right.

There's no way I had only a 22% "chance" at Columbia but a 75% "record"... (30+ data points too).
Best one though, 55% chance at G-town, 40 admit : 0 reject for a 100% record.

The "record" part is very nicely done (I've been doing the same thing by hand this cycle), but I question the "chances".

edsbored
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Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2007 4:17 pm

Postby edsbored » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:09 am

very depressing...how accurate is this? Do you guys think the chances of admissions are higher or lower than the site reports?

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welkin
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Postby welkin » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:15 am

What exactly does "similar" mean... is it with my same LSAT and close GPA, or within 1 LSAT point or what?

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kevsocko
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Postby kevsocko » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:25 am

this site is absolute junk. the first number means nothing.

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nipplehead
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Postby nipplehead » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:27 am

this site is absolute junk. the first number means nothing.


the fact that the first number might not mean anything doesn't invalidate the site; the record and the other numbers are actually very helpful.

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kevsocko
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Postby kevsocko » Fri Jan 04, 2008 3:31 am

i know, but it made me so bitter seeing my chances predicted to be so lame had to vent

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RVP11
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Postby RVP11 » Fri Jan 04, 2008 4:08 am

Very useful site if you ignore the Chances percentage. I put in 3.4/171 and came up with much worse chances than any other calculator has shown me, even though the Record seemed accurate. Maybe it doesn't predict high LSAT splitters very well?

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nipplehead
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Postby nipplehead » Fri Jan 04, 2008 5:20 am

it's odd, because my chances are slightly more optimistic on this than on any other site, which seems to be the opposite of what most of you are experiencing

lawquestion
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Postby lawquestion » Fri Jan 04, 2008 5:22 am

A lot of the schools list my chances as <10%, but the record of people with my numbers is 100%. There may be a flaw!

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rucoach
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Postby rucoach » Fri Jan 04, 2008 9:16 am

Doesn't really help me much. The record for most schools for my numbers is NA. There's only one person in the history of LSN with numbers like mine :lol:

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brokendowncar
Posts: 175
Joined: Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:54 pm

Postby brokendowncar » Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:11 am

it's odd, because my chances are slightly more optimistic on this than on any other site, which seems to be the opposite of what most of you are experiencing

I'm with you.

The Agitator
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:51 am

Postby The Agitator » Fri Jan 04, 2008 10:17 am

Chances are crazy depressing, the rest looks ok. I think you should omit the chances column. It is so far off it is going to be unhelpful to newcomers. Look at my GTown probabilities:

29.51% 96.97% 64 - 2

I don't know how you came up with that chances number. When you look at my LSAT/GPA combo on the LSN graph it's basically a sea of green.

Another question: Is the data just from last cycle, or the last few cycles?

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waytofailself
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Postby waytofailself » Fri Jan 04, 2008 12:59 pm

It's an interesting site, and if the acceptance rate for people with my numbers is accurate than I'm going to be a very happy camper.

Like others, I find the 2nd column more useful than the first since the site maker doesn't divulge his "algorithm". I'm always interested to see how people reach their numbers.

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thisabyssisbliss
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Postby thisabyssisbliss » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:07 pm

sweet, i got a 50% record at yale

too bad there are only two applicants.

The Agitator
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:51 am

Postby The Agitator » Fri Jan 04, 2008 1:07 pm

It's an interesting site, and if the acceptance rate for people with my numbers is accurate than I'm going to be a very happy camper.


If he uses data points from all of the cycles, the report may be a bit too optimistic. Look at NYU's accepts from the earliest cycle and the latest cycle:

158 Accepted (3.75/171.4) (2003-2004 Cycle)
171 Accepted (3.78/172.8) (Last year's cycle)

1.4 LSAT Points higher, which although is probably 1-2 questions is a lot in the admissions game.




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