Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

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LoseItToMe
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby LoseItToMe » Sun May 18, 2008 11:56 am

very nice, palm. i like it



if you haven't yet, cast your "yes" vote: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=33043

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underdawg
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby underdawg » Sun May 18, 2008 10:09 pm

LoseItToMe wrote:very nice, palm. i like it



if you haven't yet, cast your "yes" vote: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=33043

How long have you been temp's alt?

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palm23
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby palm23 » Fri May 23, 2008 11:38 am

OK, jsporter, there is now an option to ignore waitlists.

Also, I added a new feature. You can now see the people that the calculator is looking at for the "record" column in a sortable table (you can sort by any column backwards and forwards.) Also, each person in the table has a link to their LSN profile, so you can see more detail if you'd like.

Whenever you do a search, each school name will now have a link. For example, let's say you do a search on (3.8, 168):

http://www.hourumd.com/?gpa=3.8&lsat=168

You could then click the link to go to Georgetown University, and it will show you the applicants it looked at to calculate that 76.52% got in.

http://www.hourumd.com/?school=Georgeto ... 8&lsat=168

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Pathfinder
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Pathfinder » Mon Oct 20, 2008 11:55 pm

it makes your chances better because most people on waitlists don't get accepted. So if you ignore them, the ratio of accepted to rejected is more favorable.

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RVP11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RVP11 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 12:00 am

Pathfinder wrote:it makes your chances better because most people on waitlists don't get accepted. So if you ignore them, the ratio of accepted to rejected is more favorable.


Correct. Choosing to ignore WL makes your chances drastically optimistic. I will say, however, that choosing to not ignore WL probably makes your chances a tad pessimistic - a lot of people who could get off a waitlist don't bother to stay on because they've already been accepted to a comparable school or somewhere more appealing to them.

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takingmytime
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby takingmytime » Tue Oct 21, 2008 12:04 am

Remember though that this also uses data from a few years back so the percentages will be a bit optimistic.

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RVP11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RVP11 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:02 am

takingmytime wrote:Remember though that this also uses data from a few years back so the percentages will be a bit optimistic.


Depends. I'm a splitter, and some schools didn't seem very kind to splitters with my numbers back in 2003, 2004, and 2005 - the percentages actually get better the last few years. Some other schools, like Penn and UVA for instance, have become much more difficult.

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A'nold
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Re:

Postby A'nold » Tue Oct 21, 2008 1:13 am

Haribo wrote:LSAT = 180, GPA = 3.68. Ok, but not great. Just to make myself feel e-peeny, it was a double engineering major from MIT. :)

(I don't think I'm applying to law schools this year though - I got a really cool opportunity to have part of a round the world trip financed so I'm doing that instead.)


99.99% of law school hopefuls hate/worship you at the same time.

interestedbyestander
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby interestedbyestander » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:59 am

Question ... Is this data representative? (not sure if this has been asked yet, sorry if it has)

I thought LSN was all voluntarily-supplied info, and therefore may be on the high side of actuals since people with lower scores are less likely to post or even use this site. Has any analysis or discussion about this taken place?

Just asking here ....

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Pathfinder
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Pathfinder » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:00 am

yea its been talked about. the general consensus is that LSN is the best thing we have, biases and all. It's not always precise, but it gives you a general picture of things

interestedbyestander
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby interestedbyestander » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:11 am

Ok, thanks.

Seems to me the results would tend to be on the high side, i.e., it would show applicants have less of a chance at schools than they actually have. Not so much wishful thinking here, its just as I said before people with high scores tend to want to post them (or lie that they scored that high) as opposed to people with lower scores not being so forthcoming.

This just is an intuitive view on my part.

sueme
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby sueme » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:17 am

Great site, but it's not infallible. It has me listed as 0% chance of getting in to a school that I was previously admitted to.

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JuryDueT1000
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby JuryDueT1000 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:36 am

As a splitter this offers me zero help.

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SmittyLaw
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby SmittyLaw » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:49 am

The Law School Calculator is depressing!

RobbyCano
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RobbyCano » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:40 am

I wouldn't say this offers "zero" help for splitters, but it's certainly not infallible, as has previously been mentioned. It's going to be an interesting cycle, of course.

Amy, you can say my name when you credit me for being right about your chances!

AverageGuy
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby AverageGuy » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:24 am

When you plug in your GPA, do you use your overall GPA or your GPA for your major, if they are signficantly different?

RobbyCano
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RobbyCano » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:07 pm

Already?! Congrats!!!

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RVP11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RVP11 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:16 pm

Congrats Amy! We all knew you would - it's not a surprise that you're one of the first acceptances.

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teaadntoast
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby teaadntoast » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:20 pm

.
Last edited by teaadntoast on Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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silver11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby silver11 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:22 pm

Congrats

Someone should start a thread that tells people when the first acceptances are being mailed.

RobbyCano
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby RobbyCano » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:34 pm

Silver,

Be the change you wish to see. (Actually, I think I'll be the change you wish to see.)

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silver11
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby silver11 » Thu Oct 23, 2008 3:37 pm

Good I'll make sure to bump

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Ken
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby Ken » Sat Nov 15, 2008 2:25 am

I am glad to see that in addition to the other law school calculators out there that many TLS site readers are taking advantage of TLS Stats - stats.php

I am working on improving TLS Stats so it will be like other (and hopefully better) law school calculators and be able to predict the likelihood of being accepted at a particular law school. Trying to make TLS your one-stop pre-law shop!

1004LSAT
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby 1004LSAT » Sat Nov 15, 2008 2:28 am

Ken wrote:I am glad to see that in addition to the other law school calculators out there that many TLS site readers are taking advantage of TLS Stats - stats.php

I am working on improving TLS Stats so it will be like other (and hopefully better) law school calculators and be able to predict the likelihood of being accepted at a particular law school. Trying to make TLS your one-stop pre-law shop!


Wouldn't that page be more helpful if the GPAs went to the hundredths place? And how is it rounding as it is? Is a 3.66 a 3.6 or a 3.7 according ot that?

maxtop
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Re: Law School Admissions Probability Calculator (based on LSN)

Postby maxtop » Tue Dec 16, 2008 12:02 am

There are a couple of things to note with this site... How the numbers/probs were calculated is one of them. There is a 95% confidence interval/range with the estimation, so the odds will vary within this range. Secondly, there should be some theoretical underpinnings to the numbers. IE - when my LSAT score goes up (t+1) and my GPA stays the same, my chances of admissions should not go down. (it may go down within the 95% range), but improving numbers (higher LSAT score or GPA) should not theoretically cause the probs to descrease. Lastly, these are all self-reported data; it frankly does not matter how many observations you have, becuase we dont know the nosie inside the data.




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