Law School Stats Analysis Blog

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Typhoon24
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby Typhoon24 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:05 pm

elterrible78 wrote:Just posted about URM and non-URM medians, JRR (and anyone else who's interested):

http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... dians.html


this is fantastic!

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Lavitz
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby Lavitz » Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:11 pm

There's really not much to add to the raw data here, except to say that, while the median LSAT for non-URM candidates is invariably higher than it is for URM candidates, 10% of the schools I have data for actually have higher URM medians than non-URM medians, which is kind of fascinating. I'm interested in what anyone thinks might explain this.

You mean the GPA medians? This is just a guess: could be that while some schools have lower LSAT floors for URMs, they're not as forgiving on the GPA front (or they just have a very low floor for both). They'd also probably prefer applicants to be above at least one of the medians, and it may be more common for URMs to be above the GPA median rather than the LSAT median at those schools. Maybe URMs are less likely to be splitters.

NoWorries
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby NoWorries » Sun Jul 07, 2013 1:14 am

Do we have any idea what percentage of 170+ test takers are on their second take? Obviously LSN isn't going to be a complete set of info because many people won't mention their retake. If a sizable percentage of people who apply to Stanford/Harvard or other schools where a retake matters, wouldn't that in effect boast the chances of those who only had 1 take?

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Mon Jul 08, 2013 11:27 pm

By request, just put up the NYU profile. Massive. URM. Boost.

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Mon Jul 08, 2013 11:29 pm

Typhoon24 wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:Just posted about URM and non-URM medians, JRR (and anyone else who's interested):

http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... dians.html


this is fantastic!


Seriously, awesome work. Thanks El.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Tue Jul 09, 2013 7:37 pm

Just put up a profile for Penn. Pretty interesting stuff regarding ED and earlier applications, and who they benefit.

http://www.admissionsbythenumbers.com

And no problem, JRR..thanks for the support, man.

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Lavitz
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby Lavitz » Wed Jul 10, 2013 7:07 pm

I'd like to officially request an analysis for Cornell.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 7:48 pm

Lavitz wrote:I'd like to officially request an analysis for Cornell.


No problem! I've already got the numbers run (and I'm damn close to finishing all the schools). I'll throw up the Cornell profile before the end of the day.

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Lavitz
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby Lavitz » Wed Jul 10, 2013 7:53 pm

elterrible78 wrote:
Lavitz wrote:I'd like to officially request an analysis for Cornell.


No problem! I've already got the numbers run (and I'm damn close to finishing all the schools). I'll throw up the Cornell profile before the end of the day.

Thanks! The app opens in 5 weeks, so I'd like the 0Ls to have something to look at.

And it seems they're starting a new ED program.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:52 pm

Lavitz wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:
Lavitz wrote:I'd like to officially request an analysis for Cornell.


No problem! I've already got the numbers run (and I'm damn close to finishing all the schools). I'll throw up the Cornell profile before the end of the day.

Thanks! The app opens in 5 weeks, so I'd like the 0Ls to have something to look at.

And it seems they're starting a new ED program.


Hmmm...interesting! Nothing to say about that yet, obviously, but it'll be interesting to see if it's any more worth the time and lack of freedom than Columbia's or NYU's. In the meantime, here you go:

http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... plans.html

Interesting stuff for splitters, again.

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Lavitz
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby Lavitz » Wed Jul 10, 2013 9:02 pm

elterrible78 wrote:Hmmm...interesting! Nothing to say about that yet, obviously, but it'll be interesting to see if it's any more worth the time and lack of freedom than Columbia's or NYU's. In the meantime, here you go:

http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... plans.html

Interesting stuff for splitters, again.

Excellent, thanks!

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RetakeFrenzy
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby RetakeFrenzy » Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:52 am

Lavitz wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:Hmmm...interesting! Nothing to say about that yet, obviously, but it'll be interesting to see if it's any more worth the time and lack of freedom than Columbia's or NYU's. In the meantime, here you go:

http://admissionsbythenumbers.blogspot. ... plans.html

Interesting stuff for splitters, again.

Excellent, thanks!


+1 Thanks!

Interesting to see how the way Cornell does admissions is so different from other T14 schools

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:03 pm

I'm done with the initial number-crunching (finally) and have just posted a list of the 100 schools I have data on, ranked by the boost associated with a 1-point LSAT score increase. This is far from science, but I hope people find it useful.

http://www.admissionsbythenumbers.com

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John_rizzy_rawls
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:10 pm

Hey El. So since you've got so much free time lying around (lol), figured I'd throw an idea out there.

A lot of new TLSers ask "what's auto-admit or close to auto-admit numbers for X school?" Say auto-admit(ish) is a 80%+ acceptance rate? Is there anyway to figure auto-admit and auto-ding numbers (sub 10% chance?) for the T-14? And maybe for URMs as well?

I've got some rough auto-admit numbers for AAs at a few T-14. PM me if you'd like them.

Just a thought for a blog post down the road.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:29 pm

John_rizzy_rawls wrote:Hey El. So since you've got so much free time lying around (lol), figured I'd throw an idea out there.

A lot of new TLSers ask "what's auto-admit or close to auto-admit numbers for X school?" Say auto-admit(ish) is a 80%+ acceptance rate? Is there anyway to figure auto-admit and auto-ding numbers (sub 10% chance?) for the T-14? And maybe for URMs as well?

I've got some rough auto-admit numbers for AAs at a few T-14. PM me if you'd like them.

Just a thought for a blog post down the road.


This is pretty interesting, and dovetails nicely with something I already wanted to do, which is establish "numbers floors." The auto-ding part of what you're proposing would be reasonably easy, and the auto-admit a whole lot tougher. There's an LSAT sufficient/necessary analogy in here somewhere, but with auto-ding, as soon as one of your numbers is below that floor, you're gone. With auto-admit, it's not a matter of getting one number above a certain point, but also making sure the other one is not too low. You could definitely do something like what LSP does with school's published indexes, and figure out at which index number you're an "auto-admit", but that still wouldn't give hard fast numbers.

Let me chew on it a bit, and if anyone else has an idea on how to tackle this, I'm all ears.

Oh, and thanks for the support, JRR!

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ScottRiqui
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:37 pm

Are there any tool out there to look at LSN's data on all the applicants who have been offered admission to a particular school this cycle and extract their median LSAT/GPA?

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:38 pm

ScottRiqui wrote:Are there any tool out there to look at LSN's data on all the applicants who have been offered admission to a particular school this cycle and extract their median LSAT/GPA?


Pretty easy. What school are you looking for?

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ScottRiqui
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 11, 2013 5:49 pm

elterrible78 wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:Are there any tool out there to look at LSN's data on all the applicants who have been offered admission to a particular school this cycle and extract their median LSAT/GPA?


Pretty easy. What school are you looking for?


Saw this for a couple of different schools, but SMU really jumped out at me. Looking at the green dots and doing a rough weighted average in my head, it looks like the medians for the accepted folks are lower than the school's historical numbers. I know that not all of the accepted people will go on to attend, but if anything, I'd think that the ones at the higher end are more likely to go somewhere else, which would drive the medians even lower.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:02 pm

ScottRiqui wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:Are there any tool out there to look at LSN's data on all the applicants who have been offered admission to a particular school this cycle and extract their median LSAT/GPA?


Pretty easy. What school are you looking for?


Saw this for a couple of different schools, but SMU really jumped out at me. Looking at the green dots and doing a rough weighted average in my head, it looks like the medians for the accepted folks are lower than the school's historical numbers. I know that not all of the accepted people will go on to attend, but if anything, I'd think that the ones at the higher end are more likely to go somewhere else, which would drive the medians even lower.


Medians for accepted students for this past cycle (which I guess is technically still on) on LSN are 164 / 3.5. Although this is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, the medians for the class of 2014 (according to LST) 163 / 3.67.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:06 pm

elterrible78 wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
elterrible78 wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:Are there any tool out there to look at LSN's data on all the applicants who have been offered admission to a particular school this cycle and extract their median LSAT/GPA?


Pretty easy. What school are you looking for?


Saw this for a couple of different schools, but SMU really jumped out at me. Looking at the green dots and doing a rough weighted average in my head, it looks like the medians for the accepted folks are lower than the school's historical numbers. I know that not all of the accepted people will go on to attend, but if anything, I'd think that the ones at the higher end are more likely to go somewhere else, which would drive the medians even lower.


Medians for accepted students for this past cycle (which I guess is technically still on) on LSN are 164 / 3.5. Although this is kind of an apples to oranges comparison, the medians for the class of 2014 (according to LST) 163 / 3.67.


Thanks - I guess my "eyeball calibration" was just off. Although I guess there's still the question about whether the ones with higher scores/grades will be more likely to matriculate elsewhere compared to the ones with lower scores/grades, driving the medians down.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:25 pm

ScottRiqui wrote:Thanks - I guess my "eyeball calibration" was just off. Although I guess there's still the question about whether the ones with higher scores/grades will be more likely to matriculate elsewhere compared to the ones with lower scores/grades, driving the medians down.


I think that's probably the case for just about any school. Just screwing around a little the other day to see how well LSN data matched up with actual medians (the CW is basically that, on average, LSN users are a little "higher quality" applicants), and it appeared that for the most part the medians of accepted applicants on LSN are a smidge higher than published medians for schools. My first thought, though, was that aside from the very tippy-top schools, exactly what you said goes on: higher-number applicants end up at higher-ranked schools.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Mon Jul 15, 2013 11:57 pm

Just a heads up, I'm going to do a post re: "splitter" friendliness tomorrow. I'll list schools by a few different categories: difference between average accepted non-splitter GPA and accepted splitter GPA, a measure comparing splitter acceptance rates to non-splitter acceptance rates, and an index I came up with that combines the first two as well as the difference between the LSAT and GPA bump (the equation for the index is just (((AvgNonSplitterGPA - AverageSplitterGPA) + (LSAT bump/GPA bump))*(splitteracceptancerate/nonsplitteracceptancerate)).

I think the index captures a few elements of "splitterness": 1. how low will the school go, GPA wise? 2. How does the school value LSAT vs. GPA? 3. Does the school demonstrate a willingness to chase LSATs through a higher acceptance rate for splitters?

I'm curious what anyone else thinks. Unfortunately, I just did this for non-URMs, since depending on the school, including URM data can really skew things, and there is just not enough URM data to do much of anything with.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby ScottRiqui » Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:07 am

Could you check my thought process regarding super-splitters?

For the purposes of a school's 25th/median/75th numbers, if you have the lowest uGPA of the class, it doesn't matter if you're the lowest by .01 point or a full point. Likewise, if you have the highest LSAT in the class, it doesn't matter to the school's numbers if you're the highest by one point or by five points.

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nothingtosee
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby nothingtosee » Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:12 am

ScottRiqui wrote:Could you check my thought process regarding super-splitters?

For the purposes of a school's 25th/median/75th numbers, if you have the lowest uGPA of the class, it doesn't matter if you're the lowest by .01 point or a full point. Likewise, if you have the highest LSAT in the class, it doesn't matter to the school's numbers if you're the highest by one point or by five points.


This is an interesting point. There's a case to be made for just not letting in a 2.2 no matter the LSAT. But if a school has a median of 170 and 75% of 172, is there a significant difference in acceptance rate between a 3.0 173 and a 3.0 177? I guess we'll find out.

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elterrible78
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Re: Law School Stats Analysis Blog

Postby elterrible78 » Tue Jul 16, 2013 12:17 am

ScottRiqui wrote:Could you check my thought process regarding super-splitters?

For the purposes of a school's 25th/median/75th numbers, if you have the lowest uGPA of the class, it doesn't matter if you're the lowest by .01 point or a full point. Likewise, if you have the highest LSAT in the class, it doesn't matter to the school's numbers if you're the highest by one point or by five points.


That's totally true, and I think it's pretty well common knowledge that schools have their numbers (and their numbers' impact on their USNWR rankings) in mind come admissions season. But this whole thing gets a little overblown on TLS, and it's just not true that, as long as one number is above the median, your other number can be in the absolute gutter and it won't matter. Admissions is not ONLY a numbers game, and schools are, by and large, looking for applicants who are likely to be good students. If you have a 180 and a 2.2, will you find some school to take you? Absolutely. Will that school be in the T14? Almost certainly not.




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