Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

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sinfiery
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby sinfiery » Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:12 am

TLS is not overly optimistic and the fact that it takes any uncertainty within statistics from a very conservative baseline of being a terrible outcome will hold it back from reaching a new level of dependability. But the data just isn't there so I guess better safe then sorry will continue to be taken to an extreme.

TLS is also not a microcosm of law students in general in almost any regard. Using statistics about the whole have very little relation to the whole of TLS. I'd venture to say that most of the students who goto lawschool on TLS should go to law school.


Your entire cost benefit analysis is skewed by the conservative nature of TLS which stems from the absolute shit data available to us. And yet, even with this type of analysis as a base, I dare ask you to define what exactly is that something else you would do which makes you so certain 200k for the job prospects at Cornell is a bad idea.



Having said this, I think a very slight decline in apps will occur next year. News outlets still seem gloomy on the law school idea - and for good reason.

20141023
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby 20141023 » Tue Apr 30, 2013 1:20 am

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Last edited by 20141023 on Mon Sep 09, 2013 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

WhatOurBodiesAreFor
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby WhatOurBodiesAreFor » Tue Apr 30, 2013 3:12 am

NYstate wrote:In this thread someone said sticker at Cornell is a good idea because you can always get IBR and will be making more money than if you hadn't gone. Maybe that is true, I'm not sure what the underemployment rate is for Cornell this year. But I wouldn't do it - I would find something else if I had too.


This is the incredibly crucial point youre missing. Got a great gpa from a comm college? Pulled out a 166 on the lsat despite your rather humble upbrining and undereducation? But got a dead end job as a mechanic in rural nebraska? this is the reality for more people than you think. in so many ways, for this dude and dudes like him, sticker at Cornell is a no-brainer.

NYstate
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby NYstate » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:17 am

Ghost93 wrote:
NYstate wrote:I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.

Yes, that tells me the smartest money is getting out. They understand the job market.

Uncle Ruslan
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Uncle Ruslan » Tue Apr 30, 2013 11:42 am

Yes, that tells me the smartest money is getting out. They understand the job market.


True, and 170+ scorers probably have better options to fall back on in general.

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Big(Bird)Law
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Big(Bird)Law » Wed May 01, 2013 1:31 am

Ghost93 wrote:
NYstate wrote:I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.


Thanks for providing that link. I think a question more important than total LS app number is whether or not the 170+ flock are going to come back to law or continue to pursue opportunities elsewhere.

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Clearly
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Clearly » Wed May 01, 2013 2:09 am

Big(Bird)Law wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:
NYstate wrote:I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.


Thanks for providing that link. I think a question more important than total LS app number is whether or not the 170+ flock are going to come back to law or continue to pursue opportunities elsewhere.


This is going to get interesting, it's my theory that we're going to see the number eventually rise up, but not because current 170 students are going to apply. The number will rise back up because of how the LSAT is graded. If less 170's take the experimental section, in order for the percentiles to work out, the test is going to have to get easier (IE looser 170 curve) That's just in the nature of equating to percentiles. So technically schools will keep their medians, and technically 170+ students will start applying again, but in theory those students 5 years from now might not have earned that score on today's LSAT. The fact of the matter is unless LSAC changes how they make up sections (setting difficulty using data from the experimental) the lsat is going to get easier whenever the current experimental questions hit the real test. The disparity between current 170+ and 140- students is so large it has to have an impact, either that or the score will remain the same, and the relative percentile rank of those scores will shift significantly.

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Big(Bird)Law
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Big(Bird)Law » Wed May 01, 2013 4:26 am

Clearlynotstefan wrote:
Big(Bird)Law wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:
NYstate wrote:I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.


Thanks for providing that link. I think a question more important than total LS app number is whether or not the 170+ flock are going to come back to law or continue to pursue opportunities elsewhere.


This is going to get interesting, it's my theory that we're going to see the number eventually rise up, but not because current 170 students are going to apply. The number will rise back up because of how the LSAT is graded. If less 170's take the experimental section, in order for the percentiles to work out, the test is going to have to get easier (IE looser 170 curve) That's just in the nature of equating to percentiles. So technically schools will keep their medians, and technically 170+ students will start applying again, but in theory those students 5 years from now might not have earned that score on today's LSAT. The fact of the matter is unless LSAC changes how they make up sections (setting difficulty using data from the experimental) the lsat is going to get easier whenever the current experimental questions hit the real test. The disparity between current 170+ and 140- students is so large it has to have an impact, either that or the score will remain the same, and the relative percentile rank of those scores will shift significantly.


Hmm, I will have think this over some more, but my guess is that they will change the percentile rank of those scores rather than the scores themselves.

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Clearly
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Clearly » Wed May 01, 2013 4:38 am

Big(Bird)Law wrote:
Clearlynotstefan wrote:
Big(Bird)Law wrote:
Ghost93 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the biggest drop off in applicants been with those with >170 LSAT's?

Edit: This is from last year:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc ... ol/255685/

That should tell you something.


Thanks for providing that link. I think a question more important than total LS app number is whether or not the 170+ flock are going to come back to law or continue to pursue opportunities elsewhere.


This is going to get interesting, it's my theory that we're going to see the number eventually rise up, but not because current 170 students are going to apply. The number will rise back up because of how the LSAT is graded. If less 170's take the experimental section, in order for the percentiles to work out, the test is going to have to get easier (IE looser 170 curve) That's just in the nature of equating to percentiles. So technically schools will keep their medians, and technically 170+ students will start applying again, but in theory those students 5 years from now might not have earned that score on today's LSAT. The fact of the matter is unless LSAC changes how they make up sections (setting difficulty using data from the experimental) the lsat is going to get easier whenever the current experimental questions hit the real test. The disparity between current 170+ and 140- students is so large it has to have an impact, either that or the score will remain the same, and the relative percentile rank of those scores will shift significantly.


Hmm, I will have think this over some more, but my guess is that they will change the percentile rank of those scores rather than the scores themselves.

Frankly I'm not sure they even have the option of that happening, that would be the end result of literally refusing to do what the equating process implies they should do. You would end up with a higher percentile rank for a lower score, which would throw off the value of questions on the far ends of the spectrum, If 170 became the new 99th%, the relative value of improving from 172-175 would diminish. No Good.

I don't know what written protocol is in this scenario, but I can't see them ignoring the change in experimental data. They would have to put a section together and say "I know these questions, and this curve is harder then the experimental data suggest it should be, but that's OK, because we have a standard to stick to, and our test takers are getting dumber". I just don't see it as a possibility. If they do what they have always done, which is set the difficulty of the section using a standard equation based on the data collected in the experimental, they will have to make the curve more forgiving, or the questions easier...Only options. To me, the only question is how long it takes the experimentals effected by the current drop in high scorers to materialize into scored sections.

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Big(Bird)Law
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Big(Bird)Law » Wed May 01, 2013 1:48 pm

Clearlynotstefan wrote:Frankly I'm not sure they even have the option of that happening, that would be the end result of literally refusing to do what the equating process implies they should do. You would end up with a higher percentile rank for a lower score, which would throw off the value of questions on the far ends of the spectrum, If 170 became the new 99th%, the relative value of improving from 172-175 would diminish. No Good.

I don't know what written protocol is in this scenario, but I can't see them ignoring the change in experimental data. They would have to put a section together and say "I know these questions, and this curve is harder then the experimental data suggest it should be, but that's OK, because we have a standard to stick to, and our test takers are getting dumber". I just don't see it as a possibility. If they do what they have always done, which is set the difficulty of the section using a standard equation based on the data collected in the experimental, they will have to make the curve more forgiving, or the questions easier...Only options. To me, the only question is how long it takes the experimentals effected by the current drop in high scorers to materialize into scored sections.


After reading up more the test-equating process I see what you mean now. I bet LSAC is praying for a stronger test applicant pool soon...

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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby NonTradFTW » Thu May 02, 2013 1:00 am

Big(Bird)Law wrote:
Clearlynotstefan wrote:Frankly I'm not sure they even have the option of that happening, that would be the end result of literally refusing to do what the equating process implies they should do. You would end up with a higher percentile rank for a lower score, which would throw off the value of questions on the far ends of the spectrum, If 170 became the new 99th%, the relative value of improving from 172-175 would diminish. No Good.

I don't know what written protocol is in this scenario, but I can't see them ignoring the change in experimental data. They would have to put a section together and say "I know these questions, and this curve is harder then the experimental data suggest it should be, but that's OK, because we have a standard to stick to, and our test takers are getting dumber". I just don't see it as a possibility. If they do what they have always done, which is set the difficulty of the section using a standard equation based on the data collected in the experimental, they will have to make the curve more forgiving, or the questions easier...Only options. To me, the only question is how long it takes the experimentals effected by the current drop in high scorers to materialize into scored sections.


After reading up more the test-equating process I see what you mean now. I bet LSAC is praying for a stronger test applicant pool soon...


Following this topic pretty closely as someone starting to prep for October. After checking out the historical raw score conversion data it looks like the pool of LSAT takers would have to take a dramatic shift toward stupidity to make the test easier than it has been historically. Until 2009, the test had been getting gradually more competetive to the tune of an average of 2-3 fewer incorrect answers needed to hit 170 than was needed in the 90s. To undo that trend and break new ground in ineptitude within a few years would seem like a huge shift to me, but I'm no stats major.

Don't know if there is more recent raw score conversion data available, but I'm curious whether the pool of test takers is actually getting weaker, or if there is just a smaller pool of similarly competent test takers of which the best are more often declining to apply. Based on my understanding of the test, the second scenario wouldn't affect the curve at all.

Used this site for the raw score conversion data - http://lsatblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/lsat-graph-spreadsheet-questions-score.html

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Clearly
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Clearly » Thu May 02, 2013 3:55 am

Following this topic pretty closely as someone starting to prep for October. After checking out the historical raw score conversion data it looks like the pool of LSAT takers would have to take a dramatic shift toward stupidity to make the test easier than it has been historically. Until 2009, the test had been getting gradually more competetive to the tune of an average of 2-3 fewer incorrect answers needed to hit 170 than was needed in the 90s. To undo that trend and break new ground in ineptitude within a few years would seem like a huge shift to me, but I'm no stats major.

This is only looking at half of the story though, they can adjust the difficulty of the section either by adjusting the curve, or by adjusting the number of difficult questions (as determined by the experimentals). You can't even really say that until recently the test got more competitive...you can say the curve got less forgiving, but for instance they could have included less hard problems, and actual skill needed to get a score would remain constant..
Don't know if there is more recent raw score conversion data available, but I'm curious whether the pool of test takers is actually getting weaker, or if there is just a smaller pool of similarly competent test takers of which the best are more often declining to apply. Based on my understanding of the test, the second scenario wouldn't affect the curve at all.

This is the big caveat, those people might have taken the test and chosen not to apply, although I suspect that's not whats really happening, by the time you score 175+, emotionally your hands are tied when it comes to LS, I doubt they destroyed the LSAT then walked away from the game in numbers.

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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Real Madrid » Thu May 02, 2013 11:35 am

NYstate wrote:
Micdiddy wrote:NYstate-I agree with just about everything you said concerning how most people on these boards going to law school probably shouldn't. But that's just a fact of life. I don't believe you can actually frequent these boards and think TLSers give each other overwhelmingly bad advice.
Show me a recent thread (other then school specific ones with special rules) where TLS supported someone in making a bad decision...


I think people are too optimistic. I think the voices of the successful people are heard here ( which is completely valid) but those who are unsuccessful, not so much. As I recall anyone who posts about not being able to find a job from a top school gets immediately called flame and challenged, not much support for those people, so they don't post much. TLS tends toward the most successful students who get the jobs they want. I can only think of one person who posted about their long job struggle.

I think most 0Ls have no clue about getting a biglaw job and not much more of a clue about law school with a mandatory curve and grades based on 1 exam. I don't read too many posts from people who are at median or who aren't doing well, other than the occasional "should I drop out" post.

Most of threads advising 0Ls here are just quoting placement rates vs. cost. That is useful advice I guess, but everyone assumes they will be the ones getting the good jobs, whether they admit it or not. In this thread someone said sticker at Cornell is a good idea because you can always get IBR and will be making more money than if you hadn't gone. Maybe that is true, I'm not sure what the underemployment rate is for Cornell this year. But I wouldn't do it - I would find something else if I had too. I would not have gone into six-figures of debt just to get a biglaw job so I could pay it off. I think that mine is a valid opinion (but then I would.)

And I think the school specific threads are an important part of TLS. So I don't just dismiss those threads or the people who are going to terrible schools.

I mean, people do understand the reason why applications have been dropping so dramatically, right? The job market is terrible. The risk is high.

So, yes, I think TLS is still too optimistic.


The hell are you talking about? You literally just referenced the "Vale of Tears" thread, which is 44 pages long, and now you're saying there's not enough pessimism on TLS. Time to end your crusade, dude. This is just stupid.

Also, I'd love to hear more about this "other job" you'd magically get if you didn't go to law school. Of course it's only the legal market that's bad off right now.

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Robespierre
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Robespierre » Thu May 02, 2013 1:42 pm

I think applications for the Fall 2014 entering class will continue to decrease. People are driven by what they read in the media, and the media continues to beat the drum about law school being a bad investment (which it is for many if not most).

But I think apps will be up for the Fall 2015 entering class. From everything I've heard, the graduating class of 2013 is going to do well getting jobs, at least in the Biglaw sector. Those employment figures will hit the media in Spring 2014; perfect timing to persuade people to apply in Fall 2014 for the 2015 entering class.

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Gunnar Stahl
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Gunnar Stahl » Thu May 02, 2013 1:50 pm

Robespierre wrote:I think applications for the Fall 2014 entering class will continue to decrease. People are driven by what they read in the media, and the media continues to beat the drum about law school being a bad investment (which it is for many if not most).

But I think apps will be up for the Fall 2015 entering class. From everything I've heard, the graduating class of 2013 is going to do well getting jobs, at least in the Biglaw sector. Those employment figures will hit the media in Spring 2014; perfect timing to persuade people to apply in Fall 2014 for the 2015 entering class.

Where have you heard this?

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Robespierre
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Robespierre » Thu May 02, 2013 9:52 pm

^

(A) From the NALP annual reports, which state that the indicators for Class of 2013 biglaw hiring (2011 recruiting activity and 2012 summer program size) were up compared to the previous year: http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... uiting.pdf

(B) From comments on TLS by people who've seen their school's OCI data, such as somewhatwayward's comment in this thread that Columbia went from 85% (Class of 2012) to 92% (Class of 2013) getting summer offers: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=208629&hilit=2013 There are a lot more of these if you do some searching.

(C) From data that my own school put out indicating that 2013 will probably be the best class for biglaw placement since 2008.

Of course, it's not a sure thing until the ABA data comes out in April 2014.

NonTradFTW
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby NonTradFTW » Thu May 02, 2013 11:10 pm

Robespierre wrote:^

(A) From the NALP annual reports, which state that the indicators for Class of 2013 biglaw hiring (2011 recruiting activity and 2012 summer program size) were up compared to the previous year: http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... uiting.pdf

(B) From comments on TLS by people who've seen their school's OCI data, such as somewhatwayward's comment in this thread that Columbia went from 85% (Class of 2012) to 92% (Class of 2013) getting summer offers: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=208629&hilit=2013 There are a lot more of these if you do some searching.

(C) From data that my own school put out indicating that 2013 will probably be the best class for biglaw placement since 2008.

Of course, it's not a sure thing until the ABA data comes out in April 2014.


Shhhhh.

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TatNurner
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby TatNurner » Sat May 04, 2013 11:36 am

NonTradFTW wrote:
Robespierre wrote:^

(A) From the NALP annual reports, which state that the indicators for Class of 2013 biglaw hiring (2011 recruiting activity and 2012 summer program size) were up compared to the previous year: http://www.nalp.org/uploads/Perspective ... uiting.pdf

(B) From comments on TLS by people who've seen their school's OCI data, such as somewhatwayward's comment in this thread that Columbia went from 85% (Class of 2012) to 92% (Class of 2013) getting summer offers: http://www.top-law-schools.com/forums/v ... hilit=2013 There are a lot more of these if you do some searching.

(C) From data that my own school put out indicating that 2013 will probably be the best class for biglaw placement since 2008.

Of course, it's not a sure thing until the ABA data comes out in April 2014.


Shhhhh.


No need to worry, it usually takes a few cycles for information to trickle out to the masses and for their opinions to shift. The negativity around law school is gonna stick for a while even if data starts suggesting otherwise. Look at how long it took for people to catch on that law school sucked.

zman
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby zman » Sat May 04, 2013 1:36 pm

Do schools put out lists of how many of their kids get SA jobs with big law firms? is that anywhere on their websites?

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Robespierre
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Re: Will 2014 LS apps will increase, decrease, or hold steady?

Postby Robespierre » Mon May 06, 2013 1:46 pm

zman wrote:Do schools put out lists of how many of their kids get SA jobs with big law firms? is that anywhere on their websites?


My understanding is most don't. They only give that information to their own students, just before OCI, and even then with a strong confidentiality statement.

But some do put it on the website. See the link for Cornell: http://www.lawschool.cornell.edu/career ... -Stats.pdf




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