Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

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CO2016YEAH
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Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:21 am

Hey new grads looking for/finding work and those about to enter the job market:

Are the attitudes and fortunes of those that post on JDUnderground dot com representative of the typical law school outcome?

These people will bend over backwards to convince a prospective student that it is better to cut off a limb than to attend law school.

Does anybody out there think this viewpoint is not warranted?????

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bizzybone1313
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby bizzybone1313 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:24 am

Those guys on JDU give me a lot of anxiety over my decision to want to attend LS. Good post OP. Let's see what TLS thinks. I think a lot of the guys and gals on JDU went to lower-ranked schools, but you have some T-20 grads mixed in there as well.

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CFprez
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CFprez » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:33 am

I think jdunderground and the comment section in the abajournal are both pretty valuable. On the other hand the people who sometimes commented on campos and nandos blog sometimes were crazy like they had law school rabies.

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thesealocust
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby thesealocust » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:37 am

It's not made up, if that's what you're wondering. Doesn't happen to everyone either.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:38 am

Yeah, I don't think they're representative of all outcomes, but they're pretty representative of bad outcomes.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:42 am

A. Nony Mouse wrote:Yeah, I don't think they're representative of all outcomes, but they're pretty representative of bad outcomes.


Lol. Right.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:42 am

Well, I don't think it is all made up. But I do think there is a selection bias, similar to the way people that write a review on a restaurant are more likely to be doing so based on a poor experience than a good one.

The folks on those blogs paint the picture that its 90%+ likely to be an absolute disaster. I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:45 am

CO2016YEAH wrote:I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

Sounds about right for a T-14. Outside of the T-14 a significant portion won't practice as lawyers. Not sure what category you'd put that outcome in, but that sounds pretty crappy for people who attend law school.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:50 am

CO2016YEAH wrote:Well, I don't think it is all made up. But I do think there is a selection bias, similar to the way people that write a review on a restaurant are more likely to be doing so based on a poor experience than a good one.

The folks on those blogs paint the picture that its 90%+ likely to be an absolute disaster. I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

Basis for those numbers? The thing is, those outcomes aren't equally distributed across all schools. There are schools where it's 90% likely to be an absolute disaster. There are some where the odds aren't as bad as that.

Also, what's an ok outcome? Are you talking salary or something else? If you're talking salary, I don't think your curve fits with the bimodal distribution of law salaries. It's not like, Oh well, if I don't get biglaw I'll do a $70-80K job. There aren't that many of the around - there are a bunch of high-paying jobs and a bunch of really low-paying ones. Of course, you may mean something else entirely.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:52 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
CO2016YEAH wrote:I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

Sounds about right for a T-14. Outside of the T-14 a significant portion won't practice as lawyers. Not sure what category you'd put that outcome in, but that sounds pretty crappy for people who attend law school.


I would put that in the ~30-40% less than desirable to pretty bad/horrible category. The only reason not more so is because presumably these individuals can build a small firm client base over time or eventually land a decent job with a firm.

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CFprez
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CFprez » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:53 am

If they are Thomas Jefferson School of Law graduates then it is at least 75% horrible.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:56 am

A. Nony Mouse wrote:
CO2016YEAH wrote:Well, I don't think it is all made up. But I do think there is a selection bias, similar to the way people that write a review on a restaurant are more likely to be doing so based on a poor experience than a good one.

The folks on those blogs paint the picture that its 90%+ likely to be an absolute disaster. I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

Basis for those numbers? The thing is, those outcomes aren't equally distributed across all schools. There are schools where it's 90% likely to be an absolute disaster. There are some where the odds aren't as bad as that.

Also, what's an ok outcome? Are you talking salary or something else? If you're talking salary, I don't think your curve fits with the bimodal distribution of law salaries. It's not like, Oh well, if I don't get biglaw I'll do a $70-80K job. There aren't that many of the around - there are a bunch of high-paying jobs and a bunch of really low-paying ones. Of course, you may mean something else entirely.


This is merely a guess; no real basis other than what I pick up from talking to people, reading LST, etc. And I do realize the distribution is not even.

I suppose ok is a decent paying job where room for raises and lateral and upward mobility are possible; like say $60k+ in a market like Southern California, where wages are typically higher for a lot of public interest law than in other parts of the country.

I'm more looking for hope and the ability to build a viable career and a degree of financial stability/security over the first few years than I am for BigLaw to fall in my lap at graduation.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:57 am

CFprez wrote:If they are Thomas Jefferson School of Law graduates then it is at least 75% horrible.


Fair enough. What about lower T1 - mid T2?

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bizzybone1313
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby bizzybone1313 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:04 am

CO2016YEAH wrote:
CFprez wrote:If they are Thomas Jefferson School of Law graduates then it is at least 75% horrible.


Fair enough. What about lower T1 - mid T2?


Most people on this board wouldn't attend those schools. I am drawing the line at UT-Austin. Even then, UT-Austin would still be pretty scary. I personally know a half dozen UT grads. Their results post-law school have been a mixed bag. The problem with a lot of the posts on TLS is they act as if people in other fields all have good outcomes. Very few educational programs place 80%+ in great outcomes. Someone has to be the loser in every field. Everyone can't be upper middle class or upper class in our country. That doesn't mean that one should stack the odds against oneself by attending a crappy school. Who would you hire if your entire corporation's future was on the line because of some major lawsuit? The Harvard grad or the one that graduated from Thomas Jefferson? Exactly.

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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby Bikeflip » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:05 am

CO2016YEAH wrote:
CFprez wrote:If they are Thomas Jefferson School of Law graduates then it is at least 75% horrible.


Fair enough. What about lower T1 - mid T2?


Outcomes from such schools still depend on a number of variables: Strength of the regional economy, number of law schools in the region, number of firms in the region, where you're from, your grades, your connections, your competition, how likable you are, and on and on and on. For example, American U's a terrible bet, but Utah may be better bet. Even then, how much do you want to wager on Utah?

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CFprez
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CFprez » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:13 am

I dunno there are active boards on tls for ame rrican u, case western, seton hall, nyls.

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A. Nony Mouse
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby A. Nony Mouse » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:28 am

I went to a lower T-1. Honestly, I think just about everyone from my class is employed. It took some people a while (hence I think LST numbers for my school look a little lower than they really are, because people just took longer to get jobs). There's a fairly wide range of outcomes, though I think underemployment is a bigger issue than flat unemployment. There are some people doing doc review (although there isn't a lot of biglaw in my market so that's not the same kind of option/culture as in the NYC area), there are some people doing JD-preferred jobs (although some of that is purely by choice, not necessity). The real underemployment issue is that tuition has gone up stratospherically in the last 10 years, and the options for my school's grads haven't changed that much. In 2000, when in-state tuition was ~$7,000 a year, people could afford to be happy in a wider range of jobs. Now that in-state tuition is $31.5K a year, going to some of the smaller firms (which is the majority of firms out here) and public interest jobs (meaning DA/PD/Legal Aid, not something like the ACLU) is much more of a strain. (Unless you went here on significant scholarship, although the most recent data has my school awarding full tuition to about 5% of students and half-full scholarship to about another 5%.)

I think the distinction between this and a lot of the posters at JDU is that a lot of them just aren't getting jobs at all.

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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby mh33 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:06 pm

Everything is relative to your circumstances, so as long as you have assessed your situation and are comfortable with it don't worry.

You should be looking at the outcomes for people at your school and peer schools in the area, those in your city's market, and those with your level of debt. The rest is irrelevant.

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b123
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby b123 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:07 pm

Take this with a grain of salt, as I've never even heard of that site before:

Why would someone who has a decent job, which keeps them extremely busy, hop on a forum just to start a post along the lines of:

"Hey guys, no real question here, just wanted to say I like my job and my life has turned out decent. Thanks, bye"

Lord Randolph McDuff
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby Lord Randolph McDuff » Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:56 pm

b123 wrote:Why would someone who has a decent job, which keeps them extremely busy, hop on a forum just to start a post along the lines of:

"Hey guys, no real question here, just wanted to say I like my job and my life has turned out decent. Thanks, bye"
Last edited by Lord Randolph McDuff on Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby Lord Randolph McDuff » Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:01 pm

Tiago Splitter wrote:
CO2016YEAH wrote:I'm thinking its maybe ~10% awesome, ~50% ok, ~20% less than desirable, and maybe ~10-20% pretty bad to horrible??

Sounds about right for a T-14. Outside of the T-14 a significant portion won't practice as lawyers. Not sure what category you'd put that outcome in, but that sounds pretty crappy for people who attend law school.


Trick is that everyone's desired outcome is different. Your split is probably correct for T-14 and lower T1.

People have different goals going into law school. The perfect employment score would be able to determine the percentage of recent graduates who got the sort of job they wanted when they enrolled in law school. I think there are T1 and T2 schools that would score pretty well in this calculation.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:57 pm

b123 wrote:Take this with a grain of salt, as I've never even heard of that site before:

Why would someone who has a decent job, which keeps them extremely busy, hop on a forum just to start a post along the lines of:

"Hey guys, no real question here, just wanted to say I like my job and my life has turned out decent. Thanks, bye"


Excellent insight. And fwiw, I also see personality traits in many of these individuals which shine through even in a brief internet post that I would consider to render these individuals virtually unemployable. Some people's personalities are truly toxic.

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CO2016YEAH
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby CO2016YEAH » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:57 pm

mh33 wrote:Everything is relative to your circumstances, so as long as you have assessed your situation and are comfortable with it don't worry.

You should be looking at the outcomes for people at your school and peer schools in the area, those in your city's market, and those with your level of debt. The rest is irrelevant.


Excellent point. Thank you.

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bk1
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby bk1 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:02 pm

Lord Randolph McDuff wrote:
b123 wrote:Why would someone who has a decent job, which keeps them extremely busy, hop on a forum just to start a post along the lines of:

"Hey guys, no real question here, just wanted to say I like my job and my life has turned out decent. Thanks, bye"

Are you two dense? That actually happens. See:

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=205718
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=163550
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=82732

I can't say why they do it - I'm not them - but they do do it.

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bowser
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Re: Attn 3Ls & new grads: Is JDUnderground Representative of All

Postby bowser » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:07 pm

To the above poster who was talking about trying to distinguish from other professions:

Yep, agree. The things that are hard to calculate as a comparison are:

(1) the debt--likely to be much, much more crippling with Law school
(2) the degree to which the law as a profession is so screwed up and different from anything else. (e.g. if you graduate now from a decent school with an engineering degree, there's a very good chance you might graduate without a job lined up---I'd bet the chances are higher that a freshly minted engineering student graduates jobless than a T-14 JD grad does the same, as horrible as the legal market is. BUT, the engineering student should, with persistence, be able to land something with long-term prospects in the foreseeable future. Is that true for law students, or is there a very good chance that JD was a huge waste of time? If so, what makes it so?)




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