how do we feel about different predictors?

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how do we feel about different predictors?

Postby sillymike » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:10 am

I've been reading the guides and doing research on different predictors.

How does everyone feel about the different ones?
As a pretty extreme splitter I'm especially interested in calculations for splitters.

The thing is, they're all so different.

Take ucla. when i look at lawschoolpredictor, it gives me a 'consider' (somewhere around 50%). The hourumd basically tells me that there's no data (says there's one other person with my numbers that applied, and got rejected). The lsac predictor doesn't tell me how much data there was, but gives me like a 3-15% chance (roughly--it's very close to as low of a chance as you can get, but not quite as low as a place like harvard). Which implies to me that they have different data than either hourumd or lawschoolpredictor. Law school numbers just totally throws me off, as I don't see the one person who applied and got rejected, nor do i see a 3-15% chance implied, and i definitely don't see a 50% chance.

I totally get it. They are all using different sets of data. But is one better for splitters, or are splitters just REALLY impossible to predict? When you read the guides (like by googling guide to law school predictors), you get the idea that lawschoolpredictor has the best algorithm for splitters (they make it clear that the author of the guide has ties to lawschoolpredictor though). But despite this, the common sentiment seems to be that lawschoolpredictor is garbage for splitters AND it doesn't seem to match with any of the other data.

so, are we screwed? i'm a little weird about schools with a "gpa floor". I read the guide for splitters, and it lists schools with hard gpa floors, but looking at law school numbers i can occasionally (without looking right now, it feels less occasional and almost more 'often') find applicants that seem to defy this.

should the assumption be that this one person was the anomaly, and they just often happened to register with lawschoolnumbers?
I'm just trying to get consensus info about and for splitters. It seems like we're pretty screwed, but it also seems like one of 3 possibilities must be the case: either some predictor out there can predict with relative accuracy where an extreme splitter might get in, assuming that a splitter can break into the top 14 or 20; OR splitters just have no chance at all at any good school and so these 0% predictions for the top 20 are accurate, OR it's really just completely up in the air and an extreme splitter really should blanket the bottom half of the t-14 and expect a reasonable chance of getting in somewhere in the t-14.

but the advice seems to be the same: ED uva, look at lawschoolnumbers. Well, those don't help splitters too much! The ed virginia might, but sometimes ed isn't the best choice for everyone.

What's a splitter to do?
Last edited by sillymike on Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: how do we feel about different predictors?

Postby John_rizzy_rawls » Wed Mar 13, 2013 2:21 am

This is the best site to assess your chances:

Splitters do have chances at the T20 but it's more unpredictable, you have to ride waitlists, and softs may come into play.

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Re: how do we feel about different predictors?

Postby Davidbentley » Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:28 am

sillymike wrote:
I'm just trying to get consensus info about and for splitters.

This is the thing, dude. Essentially, there is no consensus. There is a ton of signal noise with splitters. All you can do is look at what people have experienced, read through the splitter threads, and make use of the ED option. For the schools, you are a horse for a course. You have particular a purpose (helping LSAT medians) and that purpose is incredibly time, and circumstance sensitive. You are going to get anomalous results.

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