2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest (Winners Announced)

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:35 pm

TripTrip wrote:
North wrote:The Rules for Grading

    Everybody starts off with 100 points. I'll compare your submitted list to the USNWR list and deduct a point for: (1) every school that isn't at the rank it should be and (2) every school that is at a rank it shouldn't be.

So if I said
7. Berekely
8. UVA
But in reality they flipped, so the right answer would be
7. UVA
8. Berk
Then I would lose four points (UVA is not at 7, UVA is at 8, Berk is not at 8, Berk is at 7), but if I said
7. Whittier
8. UVA
and the correct answer turned out, for some strange reason, to be
7. Berekely
8. UVA
Then I would only lose two points?

*does some math*

So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

USNWR wrote:
    _1. Cooley
    _2. Whittier
    _3. CUNY
    _4. NYLS
    _5. Samford
    _6. North Dakota
    _7. Akrom
    _8. Hamline
    _9. Pepperdine
    10. Regent
    11. Pace
    12. Texas Tech
    13. UC Irvine
    14. Dayton
    15. Mercy
    16. Idaho
    17. San Francisco
    18. South Dakota
    19. U D.C.
    20. Wyoming
    21. Toledo
    22. Hawaii
    23. William Mitchell
    24. Kansas City
    25. Stetson


Bring on dem pistachios!

Damn... Okay I guess I'll, you know, put some thought into it. Also, now accepting suggestions for the soon-to-be-ammended rules.

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Skye
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Skye » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:37 pm

TripTrip wrote:So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

Then I win with 51 points by taking that long shot of placing Yale at #1.

Ooooh wait, opps, I am not allowed to play. DARN! (Congrats 2 U).

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TheThriller
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby TheThriller » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:38 pm

50 points isn't going to win this. 50 points is bush league.

rebexness
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby rebexness » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:39 pm

You could do:

1 point for having each top 25 school listed in your top 25.
and
1 point for having it in the right place.

No penalties for wrong schools because MATH.

Seems less complicated.
Last edited by rebexness on Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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DoveBodyWash
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby DoveBodyWash » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:39 pm

Cusenation wrote:
    _1. Yale
    _2. Harvard
    _3. Stanford
    _4. Columbia
    _5. Chicago
    _6. NYU
    _7. Penn
    10.Michigan
    10.Virginia
    10. Berkeley
    11. Duke
    12. Northwestern
    13. Cornell
    14. Georgetown
    15. UCLA
    16. Vanderbilt
    17. Texas
    18. USC
    19. WUSTL
    20. GW
    20.Minnesota
    22. Emory
    23. Notre Dame
    24. University of Washington
    25. W&L

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Shmoopy
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Shmoopy » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:44 pm

I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:47 pm

Where's kappycaft1? I feel like kappycaft1 to come up with Some kind of flawless constitution-esque system in like 45 seconds. Do people ever bet on the postseason College football AP poll? I feel like the rules for that would be helpful here.

Skye wrote:
TripTrip wrote:So I'm guaranteed 50 points if I do this:

Then I win with 51 points by taking that long shot of placing Yale at #1.

Ooooh wait, opps, I am not allowed to play. DARN! (Congrats 2 U).

Lol at this schtick. Please don't scatbomb the thread, dude.

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andy261
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby andy261 » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:49 pm

Wait why was mine skipped over?? :(

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:50 pm

Shmoopy wrote:I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:51 pm

andy261 wrote:Wait why was mine skipped over?? :(

I'm still doing work stuff at work. I'll up date when I get back to doing nothing.

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Shmoopy
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Shmoopy » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:00 pm

North wrote:
Shmoopy wrote:I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?


You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

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TripTrip
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby TripTrip » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:27 pm

Shmoopy wrote:
North wrote:
Shmoopy wrote:I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?


You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

Shmoopy's right. If it were 24pts, this contest would just be about who's going to be 15-25. ~5pts seems like a happy median to fix that though.

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Shmoopy
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Shmoopy » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:32 pm

5 pts would probably be good. If it were 24, then someone getting everything right except for a #25 that came out of nowhere would get screwed.

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TripTrip
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby TripTrip » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:36 pm

Shmoopy wrote:5 pts would probably be good. If it were 24, then someone getting everything right except for a #25 that came out of nowhere would get screwed.

ASU

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:09 pm

Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 100 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25.




Question: Should we weight penalties for mistakes in the T14 twice as much as penalties in T15-25? Priorities, you know.

And do the proposed rules fly?

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TripTrip
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby TripTrip » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:19 pm

North wrote:A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25. [/b]

You only need one of those. Otherwise you lose 2 points for mixing up #24 and #25, but you lose 10 points for mixing up #25 and #26.

And I vote yes for the T14 stip.

That, or just do a T15 contest. You have to guess what #15 will be, then of those people who guess correctly for #15, whoever gets the ordering of the T14 closest wins.

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Shmoopy
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Shmoopy » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:27 pm

I agree that those last two rules are redundant. If you missed a school in the T25, then you automatically have a school on your list that's not supposed to be in the T25, effectively making the penalty 10 pts instead of 5.

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alwayssunnyinfl
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby alwayssunnyinfl » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:31 pm

alwayssunnyinfl wrote:lol I love that Skye only posts when she's drunk.

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North
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby North » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:33 pm

TripTrip wrote:
North wrote:A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in the USNWR T25 but absent from your submission. A penalty of five (5) points will be assessed for each school that is present in your submission but absent from the USNWR T25. [/b]

You only need one of those. Otherwise you lose 2 points for mixing up #24 and #25, but you lose 10 points for mixing up #25 and #26.

And I vote yes for the T14 stip.
.

Done. I thought about just doing the T14, but I figured there wasn't enough variability in those ranks to encourage diverse submissions. I think doubling the value of T14 penalties will work nicely, though.

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Crowing
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Crowing » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:48 pm

TripTrip wrote:
Shmoopy wrote:
North wrote:
Shmoopy wrote:I think you should just deduct the number of places that each school is off by, to give accuracy some weight.

This one seems legit. TripTrip, Could you get around this one?


You would also need to figure out the number of points to deduct for not having a school in the list at all. 24 points sounds a little harsh, but it makes sense because this is the maximum number you would deduct if the school were on the list (e.g. if someone put #1 at #25). Otherwise, a list of TTTs like TripTip's would receive 0 deductions and therefore a perfect score.

Shmoopy's right. If it were 24pts, this contest would just be about who's going to be 15-25. ~5pts seems like a happy median to fix that though.


I think the scoring should still depend on the spots off - North will just have to reference the full USNWR rankings. I don't think it's fair to penalize 24 or even 5 points if somebody lists a school #25 but it misses the list because it was #26.

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TripTrip
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby TripTrip » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:52 pm

Crowing wrote:I think the scoring should still depend on the spots off - North will just have to reference the full USNWR rankings. I don't think it's fair to penalize 24 or even 5 points if somebody lists a school #25 but it misses the list because it was #26.

Ah. Clearly I'm not very good at thinking outside the box.

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Crowing
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Crowing » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:52 pm

Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 0 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. The poster with the least negative score wins.


This would be simple and effective imo (though I'm prob missing something here....)

100 seems like an arbitrary and fairly meaningless score to start at. By starting at zero, everybody has a negative score so it's less confusing (rather than some positive and some negative). Plus I think it's more fitting that way that even if you do perfectly the best you can score is zero, seeing as this is the TLS hivemind we are talking about.

The one possible confusion I can think of is if you list a TTTT; since it's unranked you can't subtract a finite amount. But then you can just give a 150 point penalty or something; it's not like anybody who lists a TTTT is seriously trying to win anyway.

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Dmini7
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby Dmini7 » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:56 pm

Crowing wrote:
Proposed Rules:

Everyone starts off with 0 points. A penalty equal to the difference between a school's USNWR rank and its rank in your submission will be assessed for each incorrectly placed school. The poster with the least negative score wins.


This would be simple and effective imo (though I'm prob missing something here....)

100 seems like an arbitrary and fairly meaningless score to start at. By starting at zero, everybody has a negative score so it's less confusing (rather than some positive and some negative). Plus I think it's more fitting that way that even if you do perfectly the best you can score is zero, seeing as this is the TLS hivemind we are talking about.

The one possible confusion I can think of is if you list a TTTT; since it's unranked you can't subtract a finite amount. But then you can just give a 150 point penalty or something; it's not like anybody who lists a TTTT is seriously trying to win anyway.


You could have multiple prizes. One for the individual who gets the most right(Or perfect score is someone secretly works for USNWR).
And one for the person who had the closest score to 0 assuming there were no perfect scores. If there were a perfect score then I guess they win both prizes...

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buddyt
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Rankings Prediction Contest

Postby buddyt » Thu Feb 21, 2013 6:58 pm

buddytyler wrote:_1. Yale
_2. Stanford
_3. Harvard
_4. Columbia
_5. Chicago
_6. NYU
_7. Penn
_8. Berkeley
_9. UVA
10. Duke
11. Northwestern
12. Michigan
13. Cornell
14. GULC
15. UCLA
16. UT
17. USC
18. Vanderbilt
19. WUSTL
20. U Minnesota
21. U Washington
22. Emory
23. W&L
24. GW
25. BU

coldweather
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Re: 2014 USNWR T25 Prediction Contest

Postby coldweather » Thu Feb 21, 2013 7:06 pm

I'll throw an idea out there for points (even though I cant play...)

1-14
10 points for correct placement

1-6
4 points per correct school

7-14
2 points per correct school

15-25
6 points for correct placement

15-25
1 point per correct school




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