LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Wed Jul 17, 2013 3:35 pm

Kevin, et al., do you have the 2010 data? Clicking on the .pdf link from the blog does nothing for me (well, technically it frustrates me). If so, I'll run some simple math to show the drops between 2010-now with the data I have.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:43 am

Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.

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Tiago Splitter
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Tiago Splitter » Thu Jul 18, 2013 9:49 am

MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.

Those numbers are insane.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:02 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.

Those numbers are insane.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:02 am

Tiago Splitter wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.

Those numbers are insane.


I was so shocked I shared my data sets with a dean of a law school (who would have access to them anyway) who double checked for me and got the same numbers.

This said, note the disclaimer. I have this weird feeling when LSAC releases final report they will have found a few more test-takers (just a gut feeling) and the percentages my shift downward slightly.

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nothingtosee
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby nothingtosee » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:09 am

MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.


Holy $&@?

Srs questions though:
How is it possible that hysccn are holding their LSAT medians? I just don't get it
Has increasing number of retakers had an effect?
Or increasing amount if prep (looking at 175+)?
Or increasing difficulty?
Or is it really just that smart people stopped taking the LSAT?

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:36 am

nothingtosee wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.


Or is it really just that smart people stopped taking the LSAT?


Kyle McEntee of Law School Transparency and I were speculating just that last night. Hard to really know but I think that is as good of a guess as any.

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jenesaislaw
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby jenesaislaw » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:12 am

MikeSpivey wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:
MikeSpivey wrote:Never mind, got it. I crunched some numbers comparing 2009/10 to 2012/13 and threw them up on my blog. I don't think they have ever been reported before and it's pretty eye-opening.

About to Tweet some interesting stats as well, average # of schools applicants apply to and average # they are admitted to.


Or is it really just that smart people stopped taking the LSAT?


Kyle McEntee of Law School Transparency and I were speculating just that last night. Hard to really know but I think that is as good of a guess as any.


Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:22 am

Just got some more breaking news (apologies if it has already been broke I missed the email late last night).

Tweeting away.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:32 am

jenesaislaw wrote:
Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.


Are you looking at other data besides Mike's last post? I'm not seeing how it's 'clear' that people are scoring the very high LSAT numbers and then not even applying anywhere with them? Couldn't the decreases shown in Mike's post be explained solely by a disproportionate number of potentially-high scorers just not taking the LSAT in the first place? (I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm not seeing how you can differentiate the two possibilities from Mike's numbers.)
Last edited by ScottRiqui on Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

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nothingtosee
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby nothingtosee » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:38 am

"In 2011/12 average high LSAT 4 all applicants 153.6, GPA 3.25, Schools applied to 6.92, Schools admitted to 2.73"

YIKES.

Check out that twitter.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:41 am

And while you are there follow me, please. I'm having a twitter competition with my former boss/dean who has 730 more followers than me. Also, I haven't told him we are having a competition.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:43 am

nothingtosee wrote:"In 2011/12 average high LSAT 4 all applicants 153.6, GPA 3.25, Schools applied to 6.92, Schools admitted to 2.73"

YIKES.

Check out that twitter.


Can you put this in historical perspective for me? I'm not seeing anything in the numbers that jumps out as "yikes-worthy". :lol:

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nothingtosee
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby nothingtosee » Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:55 am

ScottRiqui wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:"In 2011/12 average high LSAT 4 all applicants 153.6, GPA 3.25, Schools applied to 6.92, Schools admitted to 2.73"

YIKES.

Check out that twitter.


Can you put this in historical perspective for me? I'm not seeing anything in the numbers that jumps out as "yikes-worthy". :lol:


American lawyers/jds aren't smart. And they're getting dumber. No wonder it's impossible to prosecute the rich. YIKES

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ScottRiqui
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:01 pm

nothingtosee wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:"In 2011/12 average high LSAT 4 all applicants 153.6, GPA 3.25, Schools applied to 6.92, Schools admitted to 2.73"

YIKES.

Check out that twitter.


Can you put this in historical perspective for me? I'm not seeing anything in the numbers that jumps out as "yikes-worthy". :lol:


American lawyers/jds aren't smart. And they're getting dumber. No wonder it's impossible to prosecute the rich. YIKES


That's why I'm curious about the historical context; I've been hearing for quite a while that the median LSAT is in the low 150s, and 3.25 for an average GPA seems believable too. I thought there was something new and scary about Mike's tweet.

Humbert Humbert
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Humbert Humbert » Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:13 pm

nothingtosee wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
nothingtosee wrote:"In 2011/12 average high LSAT 4 all applicants 153.6, GPA 3.25, Schools applied to 6.92, Schools admitted to 2.73"

YIKES.

Check out that twitter.


Can you put this in historical perspective for me? I'm not seeing anything in the numbers that jumps out as "yikes-worthy". :lol:


American lawyers/jds aren't smart. And they're getting dumber. No wonder it's impossible to prosecute the rich. YIKES


Well most of the jd's with those numbers and below will not get real jobs and become actual lawyers.

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MikeSpivey
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby MikeSpivey » Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:20 pm

Note the additional comment to the data on my blog:

This data reflects applicant, not total volume (i.e. people who take LSAT but never apply)

Kyle took a look at the data and was able to reverse engineer and confirm. That should explain some of our conjecture.

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jenesaislaw
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby jenesaislaw » Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:17 pm

ScottRiqui wrote:
jenesaislaw wrote:
Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.


Are you looking at other data besides Mike's last post? I'm not seeing how it's 'clear' that people are scoring the very high LSAT numbers and then not even applying anywhere with them? Couldn't the decreases shown in Mike's post be explained solely by a disproportionate number of potentially-high scorers just not taking the LSAT in the first place? (I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm not seeing how you can differentiate the two possibilities from Mike's numbers.)


Now do you see?

dstars823
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby dstars823 » Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:22 pm

i think a lot of the higher test scorers tend to have better outside options, so i think a lot of people are trying to wait out the economy and see what the legal market is finally going to look like after everything settles.

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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby LRGhost » Thu Jul 18, 2013 1:59 pm

I think schools like YHS are able to maintain medians because there was a relative glut of 172+ scorers. I think people said H's GPA median is falling a bit, at least in the 25th %ile range, but their class is comparatively huge. CLS cut class sizes last year IIRC. We'll see what the numbers are for this cycle when that time comes around.

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KevinP
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby KevinP » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:02 pm

Interesting thing is google trends shows a decline for lsat/law school, etc. The relatively small decline for June might be masked by schools accepting applicants later (hence people taking tests in June instead of waiting for October). I'm fairly confident we'll see the decline continue, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decline was in the double digits for October.

jenesaislaw wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
jenesaislaw wrote:
Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.


Are you looking at other data besides Mike's last post? I'm not seeing how it's 'clear' that people are scoring the very high LSAT numbers and then not even applying anywhere with them? Couldn't the decreases shown in Mike's post be explained solely by a disproportionate number of potentially-high scorers just not taking the LSAT in the first place? (I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm not seeing how you can differentiate the two possibilities from Mike's numbers.)


Now do you see?


Looking at these charts (http://www.cambridgelsat.com/resources/ ... les-table/), it does seem as if for 2013 potential top scorers are disproportionately opting out of taking the LSAT, even if slightly.

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ScottRiqui
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby ScottRiqui » Thu Jul 18, 2013 10:36 pm

jenesaislaw wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
jenesaislaw wrote:
Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.


Are you looking at other data besides Mike's last post? I'm not seeing how it's 'clear' that people are scoring the very high LSAT numbers and then not even applying anywhere with them? Couldn't the decreases shown in Mike's post be explained solely by a disproportionate number of potentially-high scorers just not taking the LSAT in the first place? (I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm not seeing how you can differentiate the two possibilities from Mike's numbers.)


Now do you see?


Yeah, it makes sense now that I realize there were other data besides just what's in that chart used to make the determination. Looking at the total number of LSAT takers in 2009-2010 and 2012-2013, there's been a 34% drop. The fact that some of the LSAT bands in Mike's applications chart show a bigger drop than 34% does make me agree that there are a disproportionate number of high-scorers (170+) who are taking the test but not applying to law school.

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KevinP
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby KevinP » Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:32 pm

Not sure how legit this is, but:
"In a presentation at this year’s Northeast Association of Pre-Law Advisors (NAPLA) Annual Conference, the Law School Admission Council (LSAC) reported that many law schools’ median LSAT scores have dropped 3-5."

Source:
http://latinojustice.org/blog/the_state ... aw_school/

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Clearly
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Clearly » Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:45 pm

KevinP wrote:Interesting thing is google trends shows a decline for lsat/law school, etc. The relatively small decline for June might be masked by schools accepting applicants later (hence people taking tests in June instead of waiting for October). I'm fairly confident we'll see the decline continue, and I wouldn't be surprised if the decline was in the double digits for October.

jenesaislaw wrote:
ScottRiqui wrote:
jenesaislaw wrote:
Just to add to this. It's clear from Mike's data that those who achieve the highest LSAT scores are more likely to decide not to apply. Whether would-be high test takers are also declining to take the LSAT at a higher clip is what we were speculating about.


Are you looking at other data besides Mike's last post? I'm not seeing how it's 'clear' that people are scoring the very high LSAT numbers and then not even applying anywhere with them? Couldn't the decreases shown in Mike's post be explained solely by a disproportionate number of potentially-high scorers just not taking the LSAT in the first place? (I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm not seeing how you can differentiate the two possibilities from Mike's numbers.)


Now do you see?


Looking at these charts (http://www.cambridgelsat.com/resources/ ... les-table/), it does seem as if for 2013 potential top scorers are disproportionately opting out of taking the LSAT, even if slightly.

It's happening and it's not slightly, I'll post the data when I'm not mobile.

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Young Marino
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Re: LSAC: Applicants: -15.9%

Postby Young Marino » Fri Aug 02, 2013 12:22 am

For those of us who waited out a cycle, it wasn't such a bad decision after all. When apps go down, that's more scholly $$$ for us




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